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The Longevity Meme F@H Team - To Get to Rank 100


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#1 dnamechanic

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:34 PM


The Longevity Meme team (TLM) has been progressively moving through the ranks. Live Forever asked about the next goal for TLM in a thread at ImmInst:

Rank..... Date
500...... Aug 28, 2005
400...... Dec 12, 2005
300...... Jun 01, 2006
200...... Feb 04, 2008

Logically, the next step in rank progression is Rank 100. Rank positions numerically below 100 are desirable for a number of reasons. A major reason is that top ranked teams have increased visibility, for the team and all that the team represents. The question arises: What are the requirements for TLM to move to Rank 100?

From the above list, moving from Rank 500 to rank 400 is considerably different than moving from rank 200 to rank 100. Looking at the time for Rank movement in the past:

Rank .....Date.......... ~Time Required (weeks)
500..... Aug 28, 2005......... -
400..... Dec 12, 2005......... 14
300..... Jun 01, 2006.......... 26
200..... Feb 04, 2008......... 88

Each advance of 100 rank positions takes progressively more time. This is somewhat intuitive because of the complex dynamics of the entire folding effort. Many critical factors change with time: The number of participants, the number of teams, the kinds of hardware that is capable of contributing (e.g. PS3), the core software and clients are improving, and the speed of the hardware itself is increasing (Moore’s Law). If one extrapolated from the above data, then it will take a long time to reach rank 100.

Recently the F@h prize was initiated, this should lead to an increase in both the number of contributors and the productivity of the team. This may provide a basis to consider that rank 100 could be achievable.

Extreme Overclocking (EOC) has an excellent site listing statistics for folding participants. One could use this resource to set some bounds on the requirements to reach rank 100. First, since rank is based on accumulated points, it is seen that the current teams around rank 100 have accumulated about ~20.5 million points. Currently TLM has accumulated ~8.2 million points. So, TLM would have to more than double the existing accumulated points to qualify for rank 100. If TLM managed to do this, say overnight, how would it maintain the position at ~ rank 100? To maintain rank at ~100, TLM would need to produce points commensurate with lower level of the top 100 producers, which would be: ~41,000 Points per day (PPD). Currently TLM produces ~ 20,500 PPD, so TLM would, at minimum, need to double current productivity.

It doesn’t seem unreasonable to assume that TLM might, with the help of the prize, double the productivity. But these two items are just lower bounds that are necessary, but not sufficient, for sub-rank 100. The time required getting there and the changes that take place during that time are big factors.

One could again use the EOC site statistics to determine a lower bound on how long it would take to reach rank 100 with increased productivity. To do this, choose teams listed in EOC stats that are near TLM’s current rank (200) and that are also producing higher than TLMs current PPD. Two teams with appropriate statistics are listed below:

Team Name....Current Rank...Current PPD
Organized Chaos.........172...........40,500
Folding Belarus ...........213...........52,800

A team named Slo-Tech is currently ranked at 100. Team Slo-Tech is currently folding at ~20,000 ppd. Using those above listed teams as reference, EOC statistics can be used to predict how long it will take for those teams to pass team Slo-Tech:

..........................Time to Pass Slo-Tech
Organized Chaos ........ 1.4 years
Folding Belarus ............1.1 years

The above times-to-pass Slo-Tech represent lower bounds on the estimated time required for TLM to reach rank 100 because of the other factors mentioned earlier in this analysis. Those other factors will cause Slo-Tech to regress in the rankings so that when TLM does pass, Slo-Tech will be at a rank position considerably less than 100.

One scenario to reach rank 100 could be for TLM to rapidly double or triple current productivity. Then afterward, TLM must increase productivity with time commensurate with the typical productivity associated with rank 100. If these criteria can be met, then it appears that Rank 100 could be achievable, although it will likely take more than one year.

Edited by dnamechanic, 26 March 2008 - 09:22 PM.


#2 Live Forever

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 07:06 PM

Wow. Excellent analysis. If we could get into the top 100 and listed on the front page of the two main stat sites:
http://folding.extre...eam_list.php?s=
http://fah-web.stanf...qtype=teamstats

..then that would be excellent.

Edited by Live Forever, 26 March 2008 - 08:00 PM.


#3 Mind

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 08:23 PM

How many PS3s do I need to buy in order to produce the extra 20,000 PPD?

#4 Live Forever

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 09:02 PM

How many PS3s do I need to buy in order to produce the extra 20,000 PPD?

You get a little over a thousand points per day on average folding on a single PS3. (so about 19 or 20 would be required for 20,000 PPD) The larger cost might come from electricity. Having an efficient video card could possibly be more efficient per dollar spent. (or not?) Googling your question came up with this thread link in which someone calculated out a lot of the different costs. I am sure there are numerous discussions on efficiency in the F@H forums as well.

Perhaps the most efficient would be to pay for $50 ($100, whatever) of the purchase cost of a PS3 for someone if they promised to run F@H when they weren't playing it. I bet there would be a lot of people willing to do this for a discounted PS3.

#5 naapi

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Posted 13 June 2008 - 08:32 AM

The Longevity Meme team (TLM) has been progressively moving through the ranks. Live Forever asked about the next goal for TLM in a thread at ImmInst:

Rank..... Date
500...... Aug 28, 2005
400...... Dec 12, 2005
300...... Jun 01, 2006
200...... Feb 04, 2008

One scenario to reach rank 100 could be for TLM to rapidly double or triple current productivity. Then afterward, TLM must increase productivity with time commensurate with the typical productivity associated with rank 100. If these criteria can be met, then it appears that Rank 100 could be achievable, although it will likely take more than one year.


In order to measure our progress, from time to time I will post in this thread the likely date to reach ranks 175, 150, 125 and 100 as per the following page:
http://kakaostats.com/tr.php?t=32461

As of today it is:
rank 175 - 2008-06-13 (today!!!)
rank 150 - 2008-09-12
rank 125 - 2009-05-21
rank 100 - 2014-07-01

Maciek.

Edited by naapi, 13 June 2008 - 09:03 AM.


#6 naapi

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:44 AM

We have moved up 2 ranks within a week to rank 173.

Current projections to reach team rank 150, 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 150 - 2008-09-27
rank 125 - 2009-06-14
rank 100 - 2016-05-28

Maciek.

#7 naapi

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Posted 27 June 2008 - 11:26 AM

We have moved up 3 positions in the past week to rank #170.

Current projections to reach team rank 150, 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 150 - 2008-09-17
rank 125 - 2009-07-21
rank 100 - beyond year 2015

Maciek.

#8 naapi

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Posted 04 July 2008 - 12:03 PM

The team has recorded amazing progress in the past week; we moved 5 positions up in the past week to rank #165.

Current projections to reach team rank 150, 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 150 - 2008-08-14
rank 125 - 2009-01-12
rank 100 - 2010-02-02

Maciek.

#9 Live Forever

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Posted 05 July 2008 - 10:34 PM

The team has recorded amazing progress in the past week; we moved 5 positions up in the past week to rank #165.

Current projections to reach team rank 150, 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 150 - 2008-08-14
rank 125 - 2009-01-12
rank 100 - 2010-02-02

Maciek.

Sweet! If we can move into the top 100 before the end of 2009 that would be awesome!

#10 naapi

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Posted 07 July 2008 - 05:33 PM

Sweet! If we can move into the top 100 before the end of 2009 that would be awesome!


After the first week of the second quarter of FAH competition it certainly looks plausible. As of today, the expected timeframe to hit rank 100 advanced strongly to 2009-08-31, despite the fact that we've just been overtaken by whoopas and evga.

So we have just 1 year and 2 months to go!!

Happy folding,

Maciek.

#11 DJS

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Posted 16 July 2008 - 04:24 AM

Here's my current "guestimate" on when TLM will break the top 100:

current team 99's total points minus TLM total points: 25.7mil-13.9mil = 11.8mil

Rough estimate of the average PPD of teams 99-158: 58,600

TLM PPD minus teams 99-158 average PPD: 109,600 - 58600 = 51,000

Total points differential divided by PPD differential: 11,800,000/51000 = 231

231/30 = 7.7

Or roughly, 03/09

#12 lunarsolarpower

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Posted 16 July 2008 - 06:45 AM

Perhaps the most efficient would be to pay for $50 ($100, whatever) of the purchase cost of a PS3 for someone if they promised to run F@H when they weren't playing it. I bet there would be a lot of people willing to do this for a discounted PS3.


Would something along these lines be a better use of some of the prize money? For example we could have a site where people would bid downward on how much subsidy they required to contribute their PS3's spare cycles. The offer could start at say $100 and anyone willing to take a lower subsidy could enter their offer. Obviously there would need to be some means of screening for reliability and so forth. If this was done once per week it might generate some buzz online.

#13 Live Forever

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Posted 16 July 2008 - 07:19 AM

Perhaps the most efficient would be to pay for $50 ($100, whatever) of the purchase cost of a PS3 for someone if they promised to run F@H when they weren't playing it. I bet there would be a lot of people willing to do this for a discounted PS3.


Would something along these lines be a better use of some of the prize money? For example we could have a site where people would bid downward on how much subsidy they required to contribute their PS3's spare cycles. The offer could start at say $100 and anyone willing to take a lower subsidy could enter their offer. Obviously there would need to be some means of screening for reliability and so forth. If this was done once per week it might generate some buzz online.

Yeah, the key would be trustworthiness. It would be easy to track if someone was actually producing points though, because they could be required to have a unique username. If they weren't producing points, we could send Mind or dnamechanic or someone to go break their kneecaps.

#14 DJS

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Posted 16 July 2008 - 11:52 PM

Perhaps the most efficient would be to pay for $50 ($100, whatever) of the purchase cost of a PS3 for someone if they promised to run F@H when they weren't playing it. I bet there would be a lot of people willing to do this for a discounted PS3.


Would something along these lines be a better use of some of the prize money? For example we could have a site where people would bid downward on how much subsidy they required to contribute their PS3's spare cycles. The offer could start at say $100 and anyone willing to take a lower subsidy could enter their offer. Obviously there would need to be some means of screening for reliability and so forth. If this was done once per week it might generate some buzz online.

Yeah, the key would be trustworthiness. It would be easy to track if someone was actually producing points though, because they could be required to have a unique username. If they weren't producing points, we could send Mind or dnamechanic or someone to go break their kneecaps.


Brilliant.

#15 DJS

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Posted 17 July 2008 - 12:00 AM

Although, if this is true then the whole idea is out the window:

PS3 Sucks Up Five Times as Much Energy as a Fridge, Ten Times as Much as a Wii

Compared to basically every other appliance you have plugged in at home, the Playstation 3 sucks up more juice. That's according to a new study by Australian consumer agency Choice, which found that when a PS3 is running, it sucks up five times more energy than a refrigerator. If you leave it on all the time for something like Folding@Home, you're looking at an energy cost of nearly $250 a year.



#16 frenchhorn1

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Posted 17 July 2008 - 01:39 AM

266 days = document.write(wDate2('2009-04-09 10:54:24.152509'));2009-04-09 05:54
This is when we are now currently predicted to be number 100.


Thank you. Thank you.
I couldn't have done it without the little people. Those actors from the wizard of oz really inspire me.

#17 Heliotrope

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Posted 17 July 2008 - 06:03 AM

Although, if this is true then the whole idea is out the window:

PS3 Sucks Up Five Times as Much Energy as a Fridge, Ten Times as Much as a Wii

Compared to basically every other appliance you have plugged in at home, the Playstation 3 sucks up more juice. That's according to a new study by Australian consumer agency Choice, which found that when a PS3 is running, it sucks up five times more energy than a refrigerator. If you leave it on all the time for something like Folding@Home, you're looking at an energy cost of nearly $250 a year.




Hey suck all the juice they want. ;o) I live in a college dorm and already paid residential bills up front. But i'm an RA (Resident Advisor) so i kinda get a free room. When I graduate, i'll likely live in an apartment or campus housing again, so the electricity thing is kinda paid upfront or billed the same rate every single month right? Immortalists, use your deserved juice from the landlords! Get most bang for your buck.


if you guys buy me a discounted PS3, i prooooomise to let it run 24/7 (seriously i don't play video games anymore, lol real life is the best RPG game ever with real world "meat-ware." Who needs Second Life when they can have a long First Life to live? Reminds me of GetAFirstLife.com , http://www.getafirstlife.com/ "fondle with your own genitals" "access your closet to build real life avatar") , if i don't produce the average PS3 PPD then you can send mind and dnamechanic or you personally come and break my legs haha j/k

Edited by HYP86, 17 July 2008 - 06:13 AM.


#18 naapi

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Posted 17 July 2008 - 02:28 PM

The team has once again progressed very well over the past few days; we moved up to rank #158.

Current projections to reach team rank 150, 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 150 - 2008-07-30
rank 125 - 2008-10-12
rank 100 - 2009-03-30

So the timing to get to #100 looks just in line with Nonzero calculations.

Congratulations to all!!!

Maciek.


#19 Mind

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Posted 17 July 2008 - 07:36 PM

I hope the team keeps improving and thus reaching 100 earlier than forecast, however, at the current pace, and the current projection, we would reach 100 on the exact last day of the first year of F@H prize competition: 2009-03-30.

#20 Live Forever

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Posted 18 July 2008 - 03:23 AM

I hope the team keeps improving and thus reaching 100 earlier than forecast, however, at the current pace, and the current projection, we would reach 100 on the exact last day of the first year of F@H prize competition: 2009-03-30.

Hopefully there is not a big drop off in production after the prize ends...

#21 Mind

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Posted 18 July 2008 - 06:53 AM

We expect the prize will be funded beyond the 1st year.

#22 naapi

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 11:16 AM

Another week has passed and we went another 5 positions up to rank #153 :~

Current projections to reach team rank 150, 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 150 - 2008-07-29 (within a week!)
rank 125 - 2008-10-06
rank 100 - 2009-03-08

It looks as if we'll get to #100 before the 1st anniversary of the FAH prize, which is excellent! :p Past 7 days PPD puts us as #55!

Maciek.

#23 naapi

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Posted 04 August 2008 - 04:58 PM

In the past 10 days or so we went 6 positions up to rank #147 ;o)

Soooooo, another milestone - position #150 - was conquered!!!

Current projections to reach team rank 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 125 - 2008-10-17
rank 100 - 2009-04-03

Past 7 days PPD puts us at #57.

Maciek.

#24 naapi

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Posted 16 August 2008 - 11:56 AM

In the past 2 weeks our team went 5 positions up to rank #142 :)

Current projections to reach team rank 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 125 - 2008-10-05
rank 100 - 2009-02-19

Past 7 days PPD puts us at #53.

Maciek.

#25 Live Forever

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Posted 26 August 2008 - 02:40 AM

Up to rank 137 ;)

Up to #47 in average points over the last 24 hours.

#26 naapi

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Posted 26 August 2008 - 12:45 PM

Up to rank 137 ;)

Up to #47 in average points over the last 24 hours.



Yes!

We're progressing very fast recently. Rank #137 as of today.

Current projections to reach team rank 125 and 100 are as follows:

rank 125 - 2008-09-22
rank 100 - 2008-12-09

Past 7 days PPD puts us at #45.

As it seems likely that we'll reach #100 soon (within 4 months or so), I think we need to set another ambitious, but attainable goal for our team.

How about #50?

Maciek.

#27 Heliotrope

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 01:27 AM

cool in 100 range before year's end. i'm not folding using my 4-year old laptop anymore 'cause i suspect FAH contributed to the freezing and crashing of my machine. the computer and IT department guys tell me it's probably about time to get a new laptop. I'm buying one in the process , but less likely to let it fold much really.

I'm back to school. Classes start tomorrow and I'll be spending many hours in libraries and computer lab workstations. I'll recruit the public computers i'm using and those can finish a WU in a couple of hours, a typical length of my study sessions.


Let's get to Top 10!!!!

Edited by HYP86, 28 August 2008 - 01:27 AM.


#28 naapi

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 10:18 AM

I'm back to school. Classes start tomorrow and I'll be spending many hours in libraries and computer lab workstations. I'll recruit the public computers i'm using and those can finish a WU in a couple of hours, a typical length of my study sessions.

Let's get to Top 10!!!!


HYP,

One can only admire your enthusiasm, however as to folding on public computers, please be aware that FAH End User Lincense Agreement requires that you have the consent of the owner of the hardware on which you run the software.

You have yourself noticed that FAH might have affected the performance of your laptop, please bear in mind that the same consequences may appy to public computers as well.

Maciek.

#29 Heliotrope

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 08:09 PM

I'm back to school. Classes start tomorrow and I'll be spending many hours in libraries and computer lab workstations. I'll recruit the public computers i'm using and those can finish a WU in a couple of hours, a typical length of my study sessions.

Let's get to Top 10!!!!


HYP,

One can only admire your enthusiasm, however as to folding on public computers, please be aware that FAH End User Lincense Agreement requires that you have the consent of the owner of the hardware on which you run the software.

You have yourself noticed that FAH might have affected the performance of your laptop, please bear in mind that the same consequences may appy to public computers as well.

Maciek.


Thanks for the warning. It's actually okay for me in this situation because I've asked some computer room users/lab employees/workers etc and also from years of personal experience. Both students and IT/computer employees routinely install 3rd party softwares into the machines, game systems, distribution softwares etc, and I read through the handbooks and double-checked my institution's policies, and amazingly, these are allowed because they're done all the time, but only on certain machines designed for short-term, temporary uses, approximately 70% of all the library/lab machines are okay since FAH will not hurt their performances. They have safeguards and automatic restart/erase systems, with FAH etc, the CPU usages on special machines are required to be pegged to be 50% or lower etc. I follow the rules. FAH will not hurt the machines. If I fold using schools' machines, I only use the pre-approved workstations for purposes like these. I checked multiple times and I'm not breaking rules/policies and performances will not suffer, but no need to advertise this either. I will only install them briefly on the pre-approved machines for 3rd party files. no harm done at all. Thanks again for the concern. I used to worry about the issue too, but now completely burden-free!!

Edited by HYP86, 28 August 2008 - 08:19 PM.


#30 naapi

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 09:39 PM

HYP,

Good to hear! In this case I wish you productive folding and moving up in the ranks! :|o

Cheers,

Maciek.




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