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GlaxoSmithKline To Buy Sirtris


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#31 DukeNukem

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Posted 26 April 2008 - 02:37 PM

>>> 1000 coin tosses that result in heads don't make the next toss any different than a 50-50 chance,

If a coin was tossed 1000 times and each landed heads-up, I'd bet heavily that the next toss would be heads. Clearly, there's something going on to cause 1000 tosses to all be the same, otherwise the odds of that happening are as improbable as the chance of finding intelligent life on the Venus. Anyway, my point is that this is a bad example, yet I see it used all the time.

#32 Mind

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Posted 26 April 2008 - 03:24 PM

I think SIRT bungled by selling out too soon, and GSK bungled by buying the whole company. GSK should have acquired a minority interest (say, 40%) for $300-400 million along with some exclusive marketing rights for drugs that are developed by SIRT. This would provide security to SIRT, and incentive for everyone to stay and innovate, and also provide GSK with a product pipeline, which seems to be what they are buying SIRT for.

Can you tell I don't like the deal?


That would've been a better deal for GSK and SIRT, however, there were most likely other deals on the table from other big pharma companies so GSK had to up the ante, so to speak.

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#33 Matt

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Posted 26 April 2008 - 03:32 PM

I wanted to invest a while ago but couldn't because of lack of money -- being a student it's hard to get so much money to make a worthwhile investment, even though I thought strongly that investing in this company was a safe bet.

#34 inawe

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Posted 26 April 2008 - 06:26 PM

Glaxo was hit hard by the problems with Avandia. Had to put potential
drugs in its portfolio to try to get more favorable forecasts from
"annalists". So it had to incorporate the stuff into Glaxo. Interest
in another company wouldn't cut it.
Sirtris has been running diabetes trials with their SIRTXXX for quite
a while now. No hard data has come out yet, which is very strange.
Instead, they put out a paper on cancer cells highly overexpressed in
SIRT1. This is impossible to translate into a treatment for humans.
Reading my tea leaves, I can guess the Sirtris gang realized they
wouldn't be able to keep the SIRTXXX charade going for much longer, so
they sold out.
To put it in a nutshell, Glaxo had to buy something like this and
Sirtris sold at the peak of the illusion.
RESVERATROL SAGA
For me it has some positive mild effects on Sirtuins and on many other
pathways. So I'll continue to take it.
For Glaxo it might prop up the stock and buy time to get out new
drugs.
For the Sirtris gang it generated a nice profit.

#35 Ghostrider

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Posted 26 April 2008 - 08:24 PM

Congratulations to those who invest in SIRT...I have been recommending the stock to others, although I never bought....obviously, I wish I had. But I don't have time to invest in stocks right now.


god, i did the same thing in a stocks thread on another forum almost a year ago. i should have put my money where my mouth is


Yeah, but there was still a lot of risk with the recommendation, as is the case with all pharma startups. Hindsight is 20/20...biggest screwup that I made was recommending First Solar, buying it at 84 last summer and selling it at 98...really stupid. Instead I went on to buy a small amount of Thornburg Mortgage...oops.

#36 wayside

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Posted 27 April 2008 - 01:46 AM

Reading my tea leaves, I can guess the Sirtris gang realized they
wouldn't be able to keep the SIRTXXX charade going for much longer, so
they sold out.
To put it in a nutshell, Glaxo had to buy something like this and
Sirtris sold at the peak of the illusion.


This scenario crossed my mind, but it implies that either 1) GSK is totally incompetent and is filled with idiots, being unable to properly do the due diligence required for a deal like this; or 2) they are willing to spend 700+ million for some short-term positive PR.

GSK has around $9 billion in cash, so it is not impossible they would blow 8% of their cash to try to goose their stock price, but this seems less likely to me than the idea that they found some value there.

I bought some at around $13.00, so I am not complaining too much, but I was hoping for better.

#37 Ghostrider

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Posted 27 April 2008 - 01:53 AM

Reading my tea leaves, I can guess the Sirtris gang realized they
wouldn't be able to keep the SIRTXXX charade going for much longer, so
they sold out.
To put it in a nutshell, Glaxo had to buy something like this and
Sirtris sold at the peak of the illusion.


This scenario crossed my mind, but it implies that either 1) GSK is totally incompetent and is filled with idiots, being unable to properly do the due diligence required for a deal like this; or 2) they are willing to spend 700+ million for some short-term positive PR.

GSK has around $9 billion in cash, so it is not impossible they would blow 8% of their cash to try to goose their stock price, but this seems less likely to me than the idea that they found some value there.

I bought some at around $13.00, so I am not complaining too much, but I was hoping for better.


If you can make an 80% profit in...I am guessing less than 1 year under the current market conditions, then you are doing well.

#38 abolitionist

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 12:53 PM

Herein we find out if Big Pharma will ever develop a viable cure for aging ... :(


Looking at the product pipeline of most drug companies - it seems pretty clear that they are generally motivated to develop
products that will remain needed and produce income rather than cure disease.

#39 malbecman

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 10:35 PM

An interview with the GSK head of drug discovery on the Sitrtris purchase. Courtesy of the Forbes website:


Why Glaxo Bought Sirtris
Matthew Herper, 04.24.08, 6:00 AM ET

Tuesday night, drug giant GlaxoSmithKline announced it was buying Sirtris Pharmaceuticals of Cambridge, Mass., for $720 million in cash. Sirtris has generated a lot of hype because it is developing anti-aging drugs, some of which are based on resveratrol, a chemical in red wine.

The company's business plan was based on developing drugs based on enzymes called sirtuins, which are involved in aging. These medicines, it is hoped, could mimic the life-prolonging effects of a calorie-restricted diet. Sirtris Pharmaceuticals ' first drug is a treatment for diabetes.

The stock market hasn't been kind to Sirtris, which was trading at $12, down 45% from its 52-week high. But GlaxoSmithKline decided the market had it completely wrong, paying $22.50 a share in the buyout deal.

It's one of the bigger biotech deals this year, and, like Takeda's $9 billion acquisition of Millennium Pharmaceuticals, also of Cambridge, Mass., it's a purchase of a U.S. biotech by a foreign acquirer. Sixty percent of the $80 billion spent purchasing U.S. health care firms this year was spent by foreign buyers.

Forbes chatted with Patrick Vallance, head of drug discovery at GlaxoSmithKline, to find out why the drug maker decided to make such an expensive purchase of an essentially unproven medicine. Excerpts of the conversation are below.

Forbes.com: Why buy Sirtris?

Vallance: Great pathway, real opportunity for transformational medicines, the leading group in terms of their insight into those pathways, real progress in terms of the chemistry and small molecule of those enzymes. We're very keen to have deep expertise in areas we see as transformational. For us, Sirtris looked like a great place to invest, a great group of scientists who we think are going to deliver.

You've said you want to keep Sirtris basically intact. How do you keep researchers from jumping to other biotechs?

We'd like to retain the entire team. We're going to enable these people to make the medicine they really want to make. What we're going to do is enable them to turn that from where they are now to creating a medicine to treat disease. That is even more important than the various financial measures we've put in place to try and retain people.

How did the weak dollar play into this deal?

Not at all. It's nice it's a weak dollar, but that wasn't a starting position, we weren't weighing this up against something elsewhere in the world. We wanted to make sure we paid a fair price for it. Clearly the price is what it is, and [with] the exchange rate what it is, we think we paid the right price for what we bought.

Why didn't the stock market see the same value in Sirtris that you do?

It's high-risk. It's an area of science that's fascinating. Like a lot of areas of science, it's got its controversies, and like many biotechs in this stage, with a good pathway, this hasn't been proven yet. It has to be proven with a medicine. We're forever investing in high-risk things. That's what we do in the pharmaceutical industry. We're pretty clear that we see a big opportunity here.

Are you interested in the drugs Sirtris has already created, or in creating new medicines based on the company's knowledge of sirtuin biology?

I think the theme is Sirtris has done a great job in both biology and chemistry. They have a great team. Can we bring new things to the table? Of course. One area is expertise in pre-clinical research and in formulation. Another is a long experience in small-molecule drug discovery.

The whole idea is that we not swamp Sirtris. Now they can do things with a scale and know-how that's much more difficult if you're in a group of 60 people than if you're in a large organization that has done this for years.


edited for typos...

Edited by malbecman, 08 May 2008 - 10:36 PM.


#40 wayside

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Posted 14 May 2008 - 03:19 AM

We'd like to retain the entire team. We're going to enable these people to make the medicine they really want to make. What we're going to do is enable them to turn that from where they are now to creating a medicine to treat disease. That is even more important than the various financial measures we've put in place to try and retain people.


I just got the acquisition paperwork in the mail today.

There's a lovely little chart called "Payments Pursuant to Merger Agreement". It seems they all had their options and restricted stock accelerated, so they are all completely cashing out:

Christoph Westphal: $25,750,000.
David Sinclair: $8,360,000

The rest of the executive officers are getting $5,200,000-$8,900,000.

Does this guy seriously think they are going to stick around because they'd rather make drugs for a huge corp, instead of going to the next start-up and trying to cash in for millions again?

And if I read the document correctly, unless GSK puts Westphal on their board of directors, he can quit at any time and receive close to $2 million as a golden parachute. Nice.

#41 niner

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Posted 14 May 2008 - 03:36 AM

Christoph Westphal: $25,750,000.
David Sinclair: $8,360,000

Business guy: $25.7M
Science guy: $8.36M

I guess that makes sense. Scientists are a dime a dozen.

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#42 maxwatt

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Posted 14 May 2008 - 03:57 AM

Christoph Westphal: $25,750,000.
David Sinclair: $8,360,000

Business guy: $25.7M
Science guy: $8.36M

I guess that makes sense. Scientists are a dime a dozen.


Westphal put up some of his own money, no? And he knew how to bring in investors.

Old joke about a silicon valley startup. Three partners, a lawyer, an MBA, and an engineer. Stock skyrockets, but soon tanks and the company goes bankrupt. Somehow when ithe dust settles, the MBA has all the money, the lawyer owns all the patents, and the engineer has a new resume.




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