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Pending Climate Bill


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#1 bobdrake12

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Posted 17 April 2010 - 02:25 PM


US Senate climate bill to be unveiled April 26 (excerpts)

http://www.alertnet....k/N15202117.htm

WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - A long-awaited compromise bill to reduce U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases blamed for global warming will be unveiled by a group of senators on April 26, sources said on Thursday.

The legislative language to be sketched out in 11 days, according to government and environmental sources, is being drafted by Democratic Senator John Kerry, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and independent Senator Joseph Lieberman.

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Point Carbon, an energy markets consulting service, estimated the anticipated Senate bill would result in U.S. gasoline prices rising an average of 27 cents a gallon from 2013 to 2020. The bill is expected to contain a fee on motor fuels.

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A group of nine senators, mostly from Midwestern manufacturing states, urged Kerry, Graham and Lieberman in a letter on Thursday to take into account jobs in their states.



#2 bobdrake12

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Posted 17 April 2010 - 02:39 PM

Senators consider gasoline tax as part of climate bill

http://articles.lati...tax14-2010apr14

The tax, which according to early estimates would be in the range of 15 cents a gallon, was conceived with the input of several oil companies, including Shell, BP and ConocoPhillips, and is being championed by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.



#3 bobdrake12

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Posted 17 April 2010 - 03:48 PM

Click on the Links below to watch the videos:

Al Gore: The Climate Crisis Video

Al Gore Discusses Scientific 'Consensus' on Global Warming

Nick Miller presents: An Inconvenient Truth Video

President Obama's FULL Speech At COP15 In Copenhagen About Global Warming Video

Obama: We Will "Marginalize" Global Warming Deniers

Shut those coal plants! Video

Global Warming or Global Governance? Video

The Great Global Warming Swindle - Documentary Film

CBC - Global Warming Doomsday Called Off Video

Green_House_Conspiracy Video

Dr.Timothy F. Ball on Alex Jones Tv:Human Co2 Doesn't Cause Global Warming Vidoe Playlist

Global Warming Hoax, Planned in 1961

Conspiracy Theory Jesse Ventura - Global Warming Video Playlist


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#4 Alex Libman

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Posted 17 April 2010 - 03:56 PM

Silly humans... All the solutions to their problems come from attaining sufficient economic growth, and if they can do that then exporting all energy production, manufacturing, and mining to space would be attainable within decades, and by the end of the century they'd actually have to import some CO2 back to earth in the form of plant fertilizer! What those imbeciles are doing is precisely the opposite - moving toward a socialist world government that will stifle economic growth, shrink human population, and brainwash the populace into a neo-Luddite environmentalist religion from which their so-called civilization may never recover!

"Global warming" is a hoax that the ruling elite have long been fishing for - a unifying threat that will replace nationalist warfare as the propaganda device to force their "subjects" into their collectivist institutions. Any scientific claims behind it have been thoroughly debunked - that isn't to say that human action produces no heat (heck, even panda bears produce some tiny "warming" effect on this planet) and that isn't to say that we can have exponential growth in pollution indefinitely, but that there simply is no cause for alarm.

Remember that the burden of proof is on the alarmists to prove that (1) the past temperature measurements are accurate and statistically significant, (2) that the earth is indeed warming, (3) that the change is indeed anthropogenic and not explainable by dozens of natural cycles which science still has very little understanding of, (4) that the change is economically significant, (5) that the change is economically harmful, and (6) that their "world government" agenda is the ideal solution for this problem, considering all downsides and risks involved. The only thing they have proven so far is their capacity for deceit!

Their temperature for the past century is so bad that the 1 degree temperature change they are claiming is LESS THAN THE MARGIN OF ERROR FOR THEIR MEASUREMENTS!

The only thing they've proven is that temperature measurements will increase when development occurs around a weather station over a decade as the area becomes (sub)urbanized, but the "urban warming" effect is well-known and should be adjusted for when making any "global" claims - which they completely fail to do. They also fail to account for half the arctic weather stations losing funding after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a dozen other important things. And then of course there's the bias - all this data comes from people who, without their "global warming" "heroics" would be teaching third grade Social Studies or flipping burgers instead!

Edited by Alex Libman, 17 April 2010 - 04:08 PM.


#5 N.T.M.

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Posted 18 April 2010 - 05:34 AM

We survived "global cooling" alright, and I have an inkling that this will be no different. ;) Apparently it may get expensive though.

#6 Lallante

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Posted 20 April 2010 - 04:01 PM

Denying AGW at this stage is exactly as intelligent as denying evolution. The existance of AGW is every bit as certain.

There is not one single national or international scientific body of repute in the world (including, amusingly, the US society of petroleum geologists!) that denies the existance of AGW.

The science is utterly clear that it is happening, do not confuse lack of clarity on how fast, exactly how it works or modelling as confusion on whether it exists. That is like using slight deviations in expected orbits of planets (to use a very classical example!) to deny the existance of gravity rather than refine the equations governing it.

#7 platypus

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Posted 20 April 2010 - 04:43 PM

A gasoline-tax is a great idea.

#8 Lallante

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Posted 20 April 2010 - 04:57 PM

A gasoline-tax is a great idea.


Yep and it works fine in most European countries (where gas is typically 2 or 3 times more expensive than in the US, and as a result people drive more economical cars and have less wasteful habits. Oh, and public transport actually works and is used by people of all socio-economic groups).

#9 Alex Libman

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Posted 20 April 2010 - 06:58 PM

Denying AGW at this stage is exactly as intelligent as denying evolution. The existance of AGW is every bit as certain.


You are parroting a political slogan. To discuss the matter scientifically, you have to define terms like "anthropogenic", "global", and "warming" more specifically. We agree that all matter in the universe radiates heat, and we agree that human action produces some amount of heat and other emissions / externalities as well. What the political movement you are defending is claiming is that the amount of heat / externalities produced by humanity is catastrophic and legitimizes the vast power-grab that they want to institute. What the critics of this political agenda are saying is that your claims to a "moral imperative" to initiate force are either insufficiently proven or entirely false (see the six points above).

You will have to use real empirical science, not the "scienceism" of corrupt institutions backed by the guns of state, if you want to win this argument, but so far actual evidence is not on your side. The best models that the AGW alarmists are able to present are based on thorough "massaging" of the data that is otherwise inconclusive and can be "massaged" in the other direction as well. All of the alarmists' specific predictions made in the past have been proven false, and their long-term projections are based on indefinite population growth (which is reversing faster than expected) and on a total absence of technological innovation, which is a complete impossibility. The capitalist / libertarian approach, which is to get rid of the government-imposed "tragedy of the commons" and assign pollution liabilities on the basis of property rights, makes for a much better solution, and economic / scientific / technological growth will eventually make pollution a problem of the past.


There is not one single national or international scientific body of repute in the world (including, amusingly, the US society of petroleum geologists!) that denies the existance of AGW.


There is not one Pope or Ayatollah that denies the existence of God - would you classify that as definitive proof or institutional bias? Faith in global cooling / warming seems to correlate quite strongly with one's ability to profit from the new legislation, with many private interests (ex. GE) positioning themselves to make billions from it!


The science is utterly clear that it is happening, do not confuse lack of clarity on how fast, exactly how it works or modelling as confusion on whether it exists.


"How fast" and "how it works" is precisely what's being debated! No one is saying that indefinite exponential growth in pollution will never cause a problem! Your argument should be trying to prove that AGW will cause catastrophic problems in the next 20-30 years, before population and then pollution will begin to decline, and that those problems can be solved by governments without doing a lot more harm than good...


A gasoline-tax is a great idea.


It might be a prudent short-term measure, but you have to look at the root of the problem in order to see the big picture. It were governments that made oil cheap in the first place by subsidizing it with trillion-dollar wars, infrastructure development aid, environmental liability limitations, etc. Government red tape also limited the private sector's ability to do nuclear and SBSP R&D. Hydrocarbon pollution will one day be history, and governments are the main reason it isn't history already!

Edited by Alex Libman, 20 April 2010 - 07:16 PM.


#10 Lallante

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Posted 20 April 2010 - 07:24 PM

You are parroting a political slogan. To discuss the matter scientifically, you have to define terms like "anthropogenic", "global", and "warming" more specifically. We agree that all matter in the universe radiates heat, and we agree that human action produces some amount of heat and other emissions / externalities as well. What the political movement you are defending is claiming is that the amount of heat / externalities produced by humanity is catastrophic and legitimizes the vast power-grab that they want to institute. What the critics of this political agenda are saying is that your claims to a "moral imperative" to initiate force are either insufficiently proven or entirely false (see the six points above).

It is scientifically beyond reasonable doubt that humanity is having a tangible negative effect on the global environment, and that this effect is causing changes in the climate which will, in the near future, cause catastrophic habitat destruction. There is literally not one single national or international scientific body that denies this (a few remain neutral, but NONE deny it).

You will have to use real empirical science, not the "scienceism" of corrupt institutions backed by the guns of state, if you want to win this argument, but so far actual evidence is not on your side. The best models that the AGW alarmists are able to present are based on thorough "massaging" of the data that is otherwise inconclusive and can be "massaged" in the other direction as well. All of the alarmists' specific predictions made in the past have been proven false, and their long-term projections are based on indefinite population growth (which is reversing faster than expected) and on a total absence of technological innovation, which is a complete impossibility. The capitalist / libertarian approach, which is to get rid of the government-imposed "tragedy of the commons" and assign pollution liabilities on the basis of property rights, makes for a much better solution, and economic / scientific / technological growth will eventually make pollution a problem of the past.

Models are irrelevant and will of course be flawed - noone claims to be able to totally accurately model a system as complex as the globes climate. Similarly long term projections. The libertarian approach ignores externalities - no cost is assigned to long term damage suffered by people other than the economic actor, and thus massively, dangerously undervalues pollution.

There is not one Pope or Ayatollah that denies the existence of God - would you classify that as definitive proof or institutional bias? Faith in global cooling / warming seems to correlate quite strongly with one's ability to profit from the new legislation, with many private interests (ex. GE) positioning themselves to make billions from it!


This is absurd. You cant claim to have science on your side then deride the established findings of the entire world scientific community (including such groups as the US Petroleum Geologists!) as suffering from institutional bias. Which is it? Your argument is ludicrous - almost a parody "Reality has a well known liberal bias"...

Furthermore the potential to profit from the new legislation is VASTLY dwarfed by the potential profit of industry groups if the legislation is abandoned. Its beyond ridiculous to claim, or imply, that the AGW community has a greater economic interest in the furthering the pro-AGW side of the debate than industry does in supporting the anti-AGW side. The numbers aren't even on the same scale! The best thing about this absurd argument is that if you, personally, actually believed it and understood its implications, you would be in favour of the pro-environment legislation, because it would be good for economic growth.

"How fast" and "how it works" is precisely what's being debated! No one is saying that indefinite exponential growth in pollution will never cause a problem! Your argument should be trying to prove that AGW will cause catastrophic problems in the next 20-30 years, before population and then pollution growth will begin to stabilize, and that those problems can be solved by governments without doing a lot more harm than good...

I dont believe it will cause catastrophic problems in the next 20-30 years, I think it will be more like 80-100. The point is that if we dont do something now, it may be too late. Even if there is a possibility we are wrong (and I dont think it is possible), we cant afford to take the risk - a switch to a more sustainable world economy is never going to be a bad thing.


You are forgetting that it were governments that made oil cheap in the first place by subsidizing it with trillion-dollar wars, infrastructure development aid, environmental liability limitations, etc. Government red tape also limited the private sector's ability to do nuclear and SBSP R&D. Hydrocarbon pollution will one day be history, and governments are the main reason it isn't history already!


How is this an argument against gasoline tax / pro-environment legislation?

#11 Alex Libman

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 12:16 AM

It is scientifically beyond reasonable doubt that humanity is having a tangible negative effect on the global environment, and that this effect is causing changes in the climate which will, in the near future, cause catastrophic habitat destruction.


Only a person who has blind faith in "authority" and no understanding of actual temperature data would make such a statement. Study the actual data - how it is collected, what the error margins are, what the method substitution effects are, how it is adjusted or unadjusted for local phenomena that don't reflect temperature globally, how it is affected by the various natural cycles that exist in this solar system, what we know or don't know about those cycles, etc, etc, etc. Aside from all the institutional pro-alarmism bias that you will inevitably observe, the only conclusions you will be able to draw from that data is that there are no conclusions to be drawn. "We don't know" is a phrase that scientists should say more often, but unfortunately that phrase does not bring home the bacon.

Furthermore, your premise is based on what amounts to the belief that "environment" or "habitats" are self-owning entities whose "rights" supersede those of humans. Human beings own the "environment", including all other plants and animals in it - not the other way around! The concerns about human beings violating each-other's Rights through pollution are relevant, the concerns that "Mother Earth has a boo-boo" are not. You are sacrificing humanity on the altars of gods that only exist in your imagination!


There is literally not one single national or international scientific body that denies this (a few remain neutral, but NONE deny it).


Name one "national or international scientific body" that doesn't receive a penny of government funding, directly or indirectly, and is immune from government force.


The libertarian approach ignores externalities - no cost is assigned to long term damage suffered by people other than the economic actor, and thus massively, dangerously undervalues pollution.


There is not one unified "libertarian approach", but no libertarian / capitalist approach I've ever heard of ignores externalities. The whole point of the growing field of free market environmentalism is to quantify externality liabilities of each polluter and the restitution entitlement of each victim! Even the most radical Anarcho-Capitalist approach merely over-approximates the damages, which I agree is a problem because only the most direct victims of pollution would be able to sue for damages, while a person who receives small amounts of pollution from each source will not find it economically viable to sufficiently prove damages against any particular polluter, but it doesn't matter that all victims join the lawsuit, just that enough of them do to make the polluters pay and make cleaner technologies ever-more economically desirable. If a government can claim to represent hundreds of millions of people just because they were born between certain arbitrary lines drawn across a continent, then why can't a legal institution represent the interests of as many people if they all explicitly filled out a form claiming that their property receives pollution from a specific source?

Furthermore, as technology progresses, the gathering and analysis of air, soil, and water samples will become ever-easier. Remember that you don't own the air rights over your terrestrial property out into the universe indefinitely, just a certain amount of altitude to put a safe distance between you and any fly-over traffic, which means automated probe-bots will be able to hover over power plants / factories / private highways / other major sources of pollution, take air samples, and model the flow of harmful particles through other people's property with ever-greater precision. Quantifying pollution destination data will be even easier than quantifying the origin, because the alleged victims will own the property and be able to subscribe to the services of multiple competing pollution monitoring agencies on the basis of their reputation and past legal performance. Individual homeowners probably won't bother with this, but interests like homeowners' associations, local business alliances, and charter cities will be able to band together for a common legal cause. This will inevitably lead to preemptive legal agreements between major polluters and their neighbors, leading to polluters capping their emissions, paying certain predetermined fees for excess pollution, supporting local parks to offset their liabilities, etc.

No libertarian / capitalist approach is perfect, but the socialist approach is substantially worse. Much of the world's pollution comes from government-related activities, and governments are able to limit the liabilities of the big polluters while using pollution regulations to hurt smaller businesses and make the marketplace a lot less competitive.


This is absurd. You cant claim to have science on your side then deride the established findings of the entire world scientific community (including such groups as the US Petroleum Geologists!) as suffering from institutional bias.


The American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) was recently bullied into softening their criticism of the global warming hoax, but they have not jumped on the alarmist bandwagon as your repeated mention of them might lead a casual reader to believe. Details are important - like I said, no one is denying that human beings produce heat and pollution, it's just a matter of relative quantities and consequences. There is a lot of money to be made through government-sponsored global warming hysteria (just as programmer greed contributed to the Y2K hysteria), but this time there's a lot to lose by not marching with the herd. That however does not strengthen the non-existent scientific justification of the alarmist's claims. Faith, emotions, hype, money, and power don't add up to proof!


Furthermore the potential to profit from the new legislation is VASTLY dwarfed by the potential profit of industry groups if the legislation is abandoned.


No, the incentives are often vastly dwarfed in the other direction. You must remember that oil companies aren't married to oil and coal companies aren't married to coal, they can easily diversify, and there will be plenty of government hand-outs to help the most politically-connected ones do precisely that, or to gain exemptions from the new regulations which will destroy their competition. Companies don't have a choice of which universe they operate in, this universe where trillion-dollar criminal enterprises called governments are embracing "global warming" wholeheartedly, or an alternative universe where reason and scientific skepticism prevail. They know the government-sponsored lie will win out, at least for a while, and they are positioning themselves to maximize their profits and limit their liabilities as much as they can.

I dont believe it will cause catastrophic problems in the next 20-30 years, I think it will be more like 80-100.


I think 80-100 years from now the number of plants on this planet will double, thousands of species will be cloned out of extinction (and many new never-before-existing species created), and pollution levels will be as they were in the 17th century.


The point is that if we dont do something now, it may be too late. Even if there is a possibility we are wrong (and I dont think it is possible), we cant afford to take the risk - a switch to a more sustainable world economy is never going to be a bad thing.


Ah, "the final proof will come in the form of mushroom clouds"... Be afraid, people, be very very afraid! Don't look at the fact that the 1 degree per century of past temperature change is fully explainable by new asphalt and construction around the weather stations! Don't think! Panic! Obey! :|w

And ain't it funny how the crisis remains "X years away" as decades pass and X never changes. Wasn't the 1970s "our 'last chance' decade", and then the 1980s, and then the 1990s... And wasn't year 1995 supposed to be peak oil? Etc, etc, etc. No matter how many times they are wrong, the alarmists never let scientific facts get in the way of politically convenient hype!


How is this an argument against gasoline tax / pro-environment legislation?


My apologies - I was multitasking and didn't notice that I didn't fit all of my thoughts into that paragraph. I edited it a bit later, but it seems that you replied before then. If you have to tax something then gasoline (as well as vices like drugs) are a better choice than some of the other possible taxes, but it merely sticks a band-aid on a bullet-wound while ignoring the underlying problem.

#12 Lallante

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 07:11 AM

Ok ok, everyone who believes in climate change has been brainwashed by the evil government-enviro-complex that stands to make trillions from the hoax, and actually switching to sustainable power is a really really bad idea because.... (actually I never understood this bit - even if everything you say is correct, why is pressure towards sustainability and low environmental-impact a bad thing?)...

You can't have your cake and eat it - you cant claim we are handicapping the economy on the one hand, and say the gains by the enviro-lobby vastly dwarf the losses of industry AND that most polluters are flexible enough to change as well on the other.

#13 N.T.M.

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 07:56 AM

Denying AGW at this stage is exactly as intelligent as denying evolution. The existance of AGW is every bit as certain.

There is not one single national or international scientific body of repute in the world (including, amusingly, the US society of petroleum geologists!) that denies the existance of AGW.

The science is utterly clear that it is happening, do not confuse lack of clarity on how fast, exactly how it works or modelling as confusion on whether it exists. That is like using slight deviations in expected orbits of planets (to use a very classical example!) to deny the existance of gravity rather than refine the equations governing it.


Nobody was disputing whether or not global warming was occurring. The question was why? Contrary to popular belief, science doesn't espouse AGW. If there's any anthropogenic influence it's rather negligible.

It is scientifically beyond reasonable doubt that humanity is having a tangible negative effect on the global environment, and that this effect is causing changes in the climate which will, in the near future, cause catastrophic habitat destruction.


^^^I think this guy's legit. :)

Edited by N.T.M., 22 April 2010 - 07:59 AM.


#14 Alex Libman

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 08:12 AM

Ok ok, everyone who believes in climate change has been brainwashed by the evil government-enviro-complex that stands to make trillions from the hoax,


Replace the Libmanian use of the word "brainwashed" with a more sensible word like "influenced" and it will be an accurate description. Of course government is not a single monolithic mind, but a network of individuals who benefit (or hope to benefit) from that institution, including many "true believer" tree-hugger do-gooders who are acting from their own initiative. The "trillions" number is correct - the global GDP is ~70 trillion USD (at purchasing power parity) and growing fast, and governments need to come with with creative new excuses to control an ever-growing fraction of it. "Global warming" is not the first case of massive wide-spread hysteria being near-universally accepted as fact, and, sadly, it probably won't be the last.


and actually switching to sustainable power is a really really bad idea because.... (actually I never understood this bit - even if everything you say is correct, why is pressure towards sustainability and low environmental-impact a bad thing?)...


The marketplace naturally chooses the sources of energy that are the most cost-effective, taking into account things like cost, dependability, risk, and pollution liabilities - unless of course ideology or force gets in its way. I'm a very big fan of sustainable power, actually, but only because I'm willing to pay more to live off-the-grid. Some fraction of the population is willing to pay more, for rational or for irrational reasons (i.e. appeasing the eco-gods), but most people are looking out for their bottom line - that money is better spent in other sectors of the economy stimulating more beneficial economic growth.

Sustainable energy (space solar, nuclear, geothermal, wind, etc) is the way of the future, but those technologies haven't been fully baked yet, which is why their proponents had to rely on government force. Central planning doesn't work very well in making those decisions, but the market mechanisms work perfectly: as the price of hydrocarbon fuel or its pollution liabilities get higher, there is ever-more incentive to pay more for the "green" tech. Like I said, the government has done far more harm than good to those technologies over the past century, and it's merely jumping in front of the parade now that they're almost feasible - just as, for example, it has jumped in front of the Internet parade and claimed to have "invented" it, while in reality the FCC only held back telecommunications technology that could have been available decades earlier.

So, once again: sustainable power == good; government force == bad.

The global government that is now in the process of being imposed over us, with "global warming" being its primary "enabling event", will do far more than simply regulate the environment! Remember that the "united States" (the word "united" wasn't even capitalized originally) was originally intended as a loose alliance between 13 North American nations for common defense, and the European Union was initially sold as merely a regional integration of coal and steel industries, and it expanded from there. Now Washington DC has total power from sea to shining sea (and beyond), as soon will the EU, and one day the whole world will be united under a single monopoly of force. For people who understand that what little freedom they have comes from the current level of intergovernmental competition, the world government is the sum of all fears! The reason why bad governments fail is because they don't exist in a vacuum, and they cannot hide the fact that another nation is doing better, which creates an evolutionary pressure to reform. A nation can't have a 90% tax rate when another nation (a "tax haven") only steals 10%, because brains and capital will simply move away from socialism and toward greater freedom, if only they can. Take away intergovernmental competition, and there will simply be no place to run!


You can't have your cake and eat it - you cant claim we are handicapping the economy on the one hand, and say the gains by the enviro-lobby vastly dwarf the losses of industry AND that most polluters are flexible enough to change as well on the other.


Government, like mafia, is all about rewarding your friends, punishing your enemies, and subjugating everyone else. It harms everyone in the long-term, but it benefits a small class of people in the short term, including the government-funded biased "science" institutions and many corporations as well.


Nobody was disputing whether or not global warming was occurring.


Actually I was (assuming a reasonable definition of "global" and "warming"), because, like I said, the alleged ~1 degree temperature fluctuation from the days of Queen Victoria to today is based on some very faulty data.

Edited by Alex Libman, 22 April 2010 - 08:20 AM.


#15 JLL

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 08:18 AM

Everyone who's repeating that "the debate is over" has got another thing coming... the can of worms has been opened. The IPCC has already lost its credibility, which means that scientists who were bullied into supporting AGW are now more willing to come up with contradictory results.

And new errors in the data keep piling up:

Here’s a story about how one missing letter, an M, can wreck a whole month’s worth of climate data. It is one of the longest posts ever made on WUWT, I spent almost my entire Saturday on it. I think it might also be one of the most important because it demonstrates a serious weakness in surface data reporting.


http://wattsupwithth...han-we-thought/

A new SPPI paper examines the raw and adjusted historical temperature records for Pennsylvania and finds the mean temperature trend from 1895 to 2009 to be minus .08°C/century, but after unexplained adjustments the official trend becomes positive .7°C/century. The difference between the raw and adjusted data exceeds the .6°C/century in global warming claimed for the 20th century.


http://hockeyschtick...rrupted-us.html

I hope Lallante will be here in a few years so I can quote him on his posts :)

And if it all sounds like tinfoil hat stuff, things like this should make one wonder:

A campaign to declare the mass destruction of ecosystems an international crime against peace - alongside genocide and crimes against humanity - is being launched in the UK.

The proposal for the United Nations to accept "ecocide" as a fifth "crime against peace", which could be tried at the International Criminal Court (ICC), is the brainchild of British lawyer-turned-campaigner Polly Higgins.

The radical idea would have a profound effect on industries blamed for widespread damage to the environment like fossil fuels, mining, agriculture, chemicals and forestry.

Supporters of a new ecocide law also believe it could be used to prosecute "climate deniers" who distort science and facts to discourage voters and politicians from taking action to tackle global warming and climate change.


http://www.guardian....onmental-damage

#16 Lallante

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 10:01 AM

I hope this post is still available in 20 years so that people can look back and laugh (or rather, cry) at the ridiculousness of the debate.

The sad thing is, people like you guys will continue to deny Humanity had a hand in it no matter what happens - no matter how clear the science gets, no matter how much the oceans rise, species go extinct, glaciers and snowcaps shrink.

You will always claim that it would have happened anyway, isnt happening, or is a good thing.

Whats even more galling is that if we are successful through our efforts, and avert catastrophic change, you will use that to claim that it was never going to happen in the first place.

I know what I believe. I know what almost every educated person at my level of business in the UK believes. But I'm done with this debate for now. If you have an opinion that literally no evidence could alter, thats not an opinion, its a religion. My opinion will always reflect the greater scientific consensus. Yours will always deny man-made climate change.

#17 JLL

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 11:50 AM

No, my opinion will always reflect the evidence. But you're a consensus man, I can tell.

#18 Lallante

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 01:22 PM

No, my opinion will always reflect the evidence. But you're a consensus man, I can tell.


I'm not a scientist, much less a climate scientist. Putting my own spin or interpretation on data would be beyond arrogant, it would be idiotic and unscientific.

#19 platypus

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 01:23 PM

No, my opinion will always reflect the evidence. But you're a consensus man, I can tell.

My money is always on the mainstream scientific view - on average that is the best available estimate on how things are. There's no way for a non-expert to review all relevant evidence, therefore it's best to outsource that to the experts.

#20 eternaltraveler

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 02:26 PM

Lallante.

assuming agw is true (which I don't Deny (or necessarily care about)). What are the negative consequences exactly and can you quantify them in such a way as to be worth the costs. The costs has you've hinted elsewhere are not free or in fact not a cost at all but a profit or you wouldn't need to force people to adopt them.

Climate scientists don't themselves deny (in fact they support) the notion that the earths climate has changed in the past, sometimes drastically, and the earth's ecosystems continued to endure.

It would be silly to deny that humans change the environment to some extent. There are going on 7 billion of us.

None of the solutions proposed will actually reduce the CO2 present in the atmosphere as I'm sure you know. The best we can hope with the most drastic policies is a slight reduction in the rate at which it increases, which climate scientists also admit is likely to have little effect on what is going to happen. So whats the point again?

Don't get me wrong. We are presently buying our energy from the same nations that support terrorism and otherwise have some of the most backward regimes on the planet. In some finite period of time we will switch to a nuclear economy after which we will never need to worry about energy until the heat death of the universe. However the same agw movement that is so against fossil fuels is also completely against viable alternatives like nuclear (due to rational but completely obsolete fear). Which really makes them not anti fossil fuel but anti energy. As the movement is completely uneducated on viable alternative energy sources i suspect if they were to become so they would also become much more effective at achieving their goals, as using drastically less energy is simply not an option for our civilization.

Edited by eternaltraveler, 22 April 2010 - 02:35 PM.


#21 Lallante

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 03:41 PM

Lallante.

assuming agw is true (which I don't Deny (or necessarily care about)). What are the negative consequences exactly and can you quantify them in such a way as to be worth the costs. The costs has you've hinted elsewhere are not free or in fact not a cost at all but a profit or you wouldn't need to force people to adopt them.


We dont know. It would seem that the consensus is (that we dont know very accurately and that) there will be a temperature rise over the next 40 years of between 1.5 and 6 degrees celsius (with currently projected energy use / Co2 emission). This will definately cause habitat destruction in some places. The effects as I see it:

1) I guess the most guaranteed negative effect is going to be on biodiversity as habitats are destroyed by the changing temperatures. We have already seen this in the warming seas- Its almost certain that a warming of 2°C above 1990 levels will pretty much end coral reefs as we know them. Not everyone cares about biodiversity (I'm not even sure, logically speaking, I do particularly, except that we might lose plants or animals that would otherwise go on to source novel medicines etc).

2) Water resources - climate change is strongly effecting rainfall patterns causing loss of water resources, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa, and north-eastern Brazil. This is probably the most concerning effect from climate change in the immediate future - coupled with population growth (double in 40 years!), this is the issue that will shape the next century. In my opinion based on what I've read, whatever we do re; climate change now, to some degree its too late to stop the water shortages we will face by the end of this century, and the devestation, and conflict this will cause.

3) Shrinking of the polar icecaps. I guess this in and of itself isnt particularly negative from an individuals point of view were it not for the resulting higher sea levels. Here is an awesome tool to see how this could affect you: http://flood.firetree.net/. Sea levels are expected to rise between 80cm and 2m this century.

4) Food shortages - Issues 1-3 above will inevitably lead to corresponding mass food shortages. On the flipside, it looks like (excluding effects from water shortages) global food production would actually increase (from temp changes and Co2) if the change is under 3 degrees. The issue is there will still be shortages as this will be a very uneven effect, and that if there are water shortages as I've predicted, crop production would be decimated.

5) Increased frequency of extreme weather patterns




Finally, what a massive straw man. Most of the worlds AGW is pro-nuclear power. I certainly am. Admittedly we mostly think it should be a stopgap for the next 20 - 50 years until we can do everything through sustainable power (or have cracked fusion).

#22 eternaltraveler

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 05:42 PM

If nuclear power is so widely accepted as a solution I have been misinformed. In America a new nuke plant hasn't been built in 30 years out of fear. I would classify fission as sustainable as there is enough uranium to supply present energy consumption levels for the next two billion years which is longer than the earth has as a sustainable platform for life as we know it (barring intervention).

I think fusion can be cracked sometime in that two billion year time span after which we don't have to worry about energy until the heat death of the universe.

Edited by eternaltraveler, 22 April 2010 - 05:50 PM.


#23 eternaltraveler

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 05:54 PM

in any case if the green movement can be(or is being) co opted by pro nuclear somewhat rational people (vs a bunch of luddite hippies) I have much less to disagree with. However global unity under some kind of super government remains a very troubling concept.

All the green movement needs to do to succeed is prove that nuclear technology can be cheaper than fossil fuels and that in its present iteration is safe, and fossil fuels would be abandoned due to simple economics.

Edited by eternaltraveler, 22 April 2010 - 05:58 PM.


#24 Alex Libman

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 07:26 PM

I hope this post is still available in 20 years so that people can look back and laugh (or rather, cry) at the ridiculousness of the debate.


You've placed yourself in a very convenient position. If any insignificant amount of change occurs in the next 20 years (fractions of 1 degree of warming) then you will be able to claim victory and call skeptics "debunked", even though that outcome would not negate my actual position (see above). If no observable change occurs, on the other hand, you will be able to claim to have "saved the world" and that no green technology would exist if not for your "divine intervention".

"Heads I win, tails you lose" - political spin at its best, even while scientific observations continue to fall in the skeptics' favor.


The sad thing is, people like you guys will continue to deny Humanity had a hand in it no matter what happens - no matter how clear the science gets, no matter how much the oceans rise, species go extinct, glaciers and snowcaps shrink.


Your predictions for sea level rise catastrophes continue to be debunked by reality.

If you google my name and search hard enough, you will find that I was an outspoken greenie when I was young and stupid. That point of view wasn't as popular back then, but it still felt additively good to speak out for Mother Earth and all the little creatures in it. (Also it did great things for my sex life - the Green Party is about 75% female, while Anarcho-Capitalists are about 90% male. The emotion vs reason gender difference strikes again...) What changed my mind were the scientific facts.

As for species going extinct - species go extinct all the time, and it is inevitable that human activity will inevitably displace some of them. If even one competent non-human predator got on Mauritius before humans did then the Dodos would be just as extinct, but the memory of their existence would be limited to the lifetime of that predatory animal, and there would be no one to clone them out of extinction several hundred years later.

Humanity may someday create more new species through genetic engineering than there are books on Amazon.com! There may be Dodos on hundreds of terraformed planets, moons, and space-stations someday - all thanks to man! Of course humanity's ability to progress forward economically and scientifically is looking grim as prospects of a neo-Luddite world government threaten to shrink the humanity back to a "more manageable size", outlaw progress, and confine us to one totalitarian prison planet from which there can be no escape!

#25 JLL

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 09:52 PM

in any case if the green movement can be(or is being) co opted by pro nuclear somewhat rational people (vs a bunch of luddite hippies) I have much less to disagree with. However global unity under some kind of super government remains a very troubling concept.

All the green movement needs to do to succeed is prove that nuclear technology can be cheaper than fossil fuels and that in its present iteration is safe, and fossil fuels would be abandoned due to simple economics.


I don't think Lallante has a grasp of how the majority of the green movement feels about nuclear power.

#26 Alex Libman

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 10:29 PM

Nuclear power may be a viable alternative in some situations, but it isn't a guaranteed cure-all, especially when you consider how much it is subsidized by the government, including limiting the liability costs.

And, in the long term - why build puny little power plants of our own when we already have a megaepicsuperginormous nuclear fusion reactor taking up 99.86% of the total mass of our solar system?! Except when dealing with the outermost reaches of the solar system (and beyond), no energy source can possibly compete with the sun! Unfortunately photo-voltaic technology isn't cost-effective yet, so we'll have to use other sources of energy a bit longer while we continue our economic growth.

Only the price mechanisms of the free market can decide which energy sources are the most cost-effective to use at any particular time or place. Government intervention (ex. the ethanol boondoggle) is doing a lot more harm than good.

Edited by Alex Libman, 22 April 2010 - 10:33 PM.


#27 Lallante

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 10:32 PM

If nuclear power is so widely accepted as a solution I have been misinformed. In America a new nuke plant hasn't been built in 30 years out of fear. I would classify fission as sustainable as there is enough uranium to supply present energy consumption levels for the next two billion years which is longer than the earth has as a sustainable platform for life as we know it (barring intervention).

I think fusion can be cracked sometime in that two billion year time span after which we don't have to worry about energy until the heat death of the universe.


My understanding is that we will run out of fissionable uranium sometime in the next 100 years. If this is wrong please feel free to cite me...

#28 Lallante

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 10:33 PM

in any case if the green movement can be(or is being) co opted by pro nuclear somewhat rational people (vs a bunch of luddite hippies) I have much less to disagree with. However global unity under some kind of super government remains a very troubling concept.

All the green movement needs to do to succeed is prove that nuclear technology can be cheaper than fossil fuels and that in its present iteration is safe, and fossil fuels would be abandoned due to simple economics.


I don't think Lallante has a grasp of how the majority of the green movement feels about nuclear power.


if you are losing an argument, always claim that the other person isnt representative of his side of the debate...

#29 Lallante

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 10:34 PM

in any case if the green movement can be(or is being) co opted by pro nuclear somewhat rational people (vs a bunch of luddite hippies) I have much less to disagree with. However global unity under some kind of super government remains a very troubling concept.

All the green movement needs to do to succeed is prove that nuclear technology can be cheaper than fossil fuels and that in its present iteration is safe, and fossil fuels would be abandoned due to simple economics.

Its this kind of black and white thinking that is the problem. Believing in AGW doesnt suddenly align you with luddite anti-civilisationists...

Nevertheless, fossil fuels will be cheaper until the government taxes them to represent their true cost including externalities

#30 eternaltraveler

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 11:41 PM

Nevertheless, fossil fuels will be cheaper until the government taxes them to represent their true cost including externalities


No they wont. Why would they be? They are hard to get and in finite supply.

And what exactly is the true cost of fossil fuels including externalities? It must be a lot. They are already taxed heavily.

Edited by eternaltraveler, 22 April 2010 - 11:41 PM.





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