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Websites help you estimate how long you'll live
I have frequently heard patients say they never expected to live so long and that they would have done a lot of things differently had they known how long their body or money would have to last. This leads to the question of whether we can predict how long we will live.
The average U.S. life expectancy in 2011 was 76 years for men and 81 years for women. But, while everyone living in the United States contributes to this "average" life span, only a small number of people will live to these exact ages, and most people will live longer or shorter lifetimes.
Insurance companies and the government have collected extensive data in the U.S., and researchers have also studied communities and populations as they age over time. Based on this information, habits or conditions associated with shorter or longer lives have been identified.
These factors can be combined in calculations to estimate the life span for an individual person. Factors such as age, sex, blood pressure, weight, waist size, smoking or drinking habits, exercise habits, income, social support and disease history may be considered in calculating anticipated life spans.
A number of calculators for estimating Americans' life expectancy are available to the public. The simplest, based only on age and gender, can be found at the Social Security website at http://ssa.gov/plann...expectancy.htm.
It says that a 65-year-old man can expect to live until age 84, while a 65-year-old woman will live, on average, to 86.
The Longevity Game
Estimates based on more personal information can be obtained from the Longevity Game at http://u.nm.com/1bIu37x.
Using this calculator, a 65-year-old man who does not smoke, is of normal weight, consumes fewer than two alcoholic drinks per day, is somewhat physically active, has an "average" diet and has high blood pressure controlled with medications is estimated to live to age 87. A woman of the same age with the same habits and controlled high blood pressure is projected to live to 91.
If their diets frequently consisted of fast food, they did not exercise regularly, they drank more than two alcoholic drinks per day and they had uncontrolled high blood pressure and family members with heart disease before age 55, the life expectancy would fall to 71 years for the 65-year-old man and to 75 years for the woman.
Another approach calculates your body's physiological "actual" age versus your chronological age at www.sharecare.com/RealAge.
The "RealAge" quiz estimates that a 65-year-old nonsmoking woman of normal weight with a healthy diet who has normal blood pressure, exercises regularly and gets eight hours of sleep a night has a "RealAge" of 57. This suggests she will live about eight years longer than the average 65-year-old. Conversely, if she ate red meat regularly, had high blood pressure, exercised infrequently and spent most of her time alone, her "RealAge" would be 72 1/2 and she would be expected to live a shorter life than average.
For older adults
Another calculator at http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu was developed specifically for older and very old adults and takes into account any troubles they have with everyday tasks and not just medical conditions and habits. It provides estimates on how likely it is that a person will live for time periods ranging from one to 10 years.
These examples show that life expectancy calculators not only can provide personalized estimates of how long you will live for planning purposes but also can show how health-related habits can affect your life expectancy.
Dr. Janice B. Schwartz is a professor of medicine and bioengineering and therapeutic sciences at UCSF and a visiting research scientist at the Jewish Home in San Francisco.
