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While waiting for a way to immortality, should we live in a bunker?

risk fear expected value

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#1 Guybrush Threepwood

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 05:23 PM


Hi!

 

I think that if an individual believes in the possibility of becoming immortal (and not just exempt from aging), logic (a simple calculation of the expected value*) advises him to eliminate any risk.

 

If we were born in 1800, would not make much difference to die in 1820, in 1840, or in 1880.

But now, with the chance to live forever, die before it happens would be really a waste. We have too much to lose, so according to the logic we should take less risk as possible.

The problem is that we might die in countless ways, but the possibility of becoming immortal are almost 0.

This is making me paranoid, not only I am afraid of traveling by plane, but I even fear that a plane will fall into my house (I live 1.3 miles away from the airport)!
Should I relocate far away from the airport?

Maybe we should stop going out, because it is possible for someone to kill us even if we're careful (with a shot to the head, or another injury to the brain, even cryonics could not do anything for us). Maybe we should live in a bunker and never leave it.

 

What do you think? How would you behave?

 

 

 

* http://www.longecity...life-extension/


Edited by Guybrush Threepwood, 16 September 2014 - 05:24 PM.

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#2 cats_lover

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 06:10 PM

Assuming that immortality was discovered and that the treatment has already been applied to you (no aging); all the risks you mention are still there.

Exaggerating safety is not a good way to enjoy life.

 


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#3 Guybrush Threepwood

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 07:27 PM

when I say immortality I mean not just anti-aging, I mean some way in which we can't die.

Was it not clear? Sorry, I'm not an english speaker.



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#4 Antonio2014

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 07:46 PM

If you stay in a bunker, you will become fat and age faster :P

 

https://www.fightagi...ts-of-aging.php



#5 Avatar of Horus

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 07:52 PM

to Guybrush Threepwood's post #1:
I think you are right.
To the paranoia: yes, this type of thinking can be considered by some as such, but in my opinion it is just normal thinking. And there is a emphasis on that last world, because with intelligence one can see the dangers, whatever chance they might have to happen. Either this would be a plane or a meteor, etc.; IMHO these dangers must be considered and dealt with in order to exclude and avoid them.
Either we, the life extension movement, can transform the whole world into a Transhumanist Utopia, a society where there is a mainstream focus on these and more global existential risks, or we must make the safety for ourselves at least, or until that.
The solution might be bunkers or some kind of immortalist towns, like Longecities, where survivalist communities - with tested and proven members - could exist free from the dangers of the outside world.
 

...
Exaggerating safety is not a good way to enjoy life.

 

That may be true, but on the other hand: underrating safety can be a good way to end it.



#6 cats_lover

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 09:11 PM

when I say immortality I mean not just anti-aging, I mean some way in which we can't die.

Was it not clear? Sorry, I'm not an english speaker.

 

Yes, im sorry, i think you was clear in the first post (im not an english speaker too).

 

Anyway, i think we are close to a better understand of ageing process and maybe we are also close to "anti-ageing" immortality, but we are so far from total immortality (like copy the brain information into a computer system).

 

In the other hand, "total immortality" solutions are not completely invulnerable to certain kind of disasters; if you copy your brain information into a computer, a meteorite can crash on in, or maybe a Quasar can change its direction pointing to earth... or other accidents may occur.

 

So there are no guarantees
 


Edited by cats_lover, 16 September 2014 - 09:11 PM.


#7 Clacksberg

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 09:31 PM

Quasar changing it's direction, pointing to Earth - hrr, a good LEAD LINED BUNKER  then!!



#8 cats_lover

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 10:17 PM

Quasar changing it's direction, pointing to Earth - hrr, a good LEAD LINED BUNKER  then!!

 

Extremely improbable but powerful!!! No bunker can save you from crazies quasars changing direction!!

You have two options:

1. Stay in your bunker and play Monkey Island games forever (or until a crazy quasar changes his course)

2. Go outside and play

:laugh:
 


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#9 PWAIN

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 05:26 AM

Pretty sure you have a much higher probablilty of dieing from health related causes than accental death. Spending time in a bunker or being over autious is likely to have implications for your health.

 

Also I believe that flying is one of the safest ways to travel. Going by car instead of flying is far more dangerous.

 

If you're going to relocate because of the airport then you may want to move somewhere without electricity and gas since they are responsible for a huge number of deaths. While you're at it, you may wish to stop walking since falls are a major killer.........



#10 PWAIN

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 05:28 AM

Duplicate


Edited by PWAIN, 17 September 2014 - 06:00 AM.


#11 Guybrush Threepwood

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 09:43 AM

to Guybrush Threepwood's post #1:
I think you are right.
To the paranoia: yes, this type of thinking can be considered by some as such, but in my opinion it is just normal thinking. And there is a emphasis on that last world, because with intelligence one can see the dangers, whatever chance they might have to happen. Either this would be a plane or a meteor, etc.; IMHO these dangers must be considered and dealt with in order to exclude and avoid them.
Either we, the life extension movement, can transform the whole world into a Transhumanist Utopia, a society where there is a mainstream focus on these and more global existential risks, or we must make the safety for ourselves at least, or until that.
The solution might be bunkers or some kind of immortalist towns, like Longecities, where survivalist communities - with tested and proven members - could exist free from the dangers of the outside world.

 

It would be nice, but in the meantime, how do you behave? For example, you drive (your car, or a bike) regularly?

 

 

Pretty sure you have a much higher probablilty of dieing from health related causes than accental death. Spending time in a bunker or being over autious is likely to have implications for your health.

 

Also I believe that flying is one of the safest ways to travel. Going by car instead of flying is far more dangerous.

 

If you're going to relocate because of the airport then you may want to move somewhere without electricity and gas since they are responsible for a huge number of deaths. While you're at it, you may wish to stop walking since falls are a major killer.........

 

Yeah I know, in fact I have not yet moved to another house because I could eliminate the risk of the plane (maybe?), but there may be other risks, and I would solve nothing; right?

By the way, would you prefer to live on the first floor or on a
higher floor? They have the same risks?



#12 Antonio2014

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 11:36 AM

2/3 of the people that die in the world die from ageing (90 % in developed countries). So, at least to me, the best way to reduce risk of dying for myself is to become an entrepreneur, make big money and donate it to anti-ageing research (or better, create a biotech company).


Edited by Antonio2014, 17 September 2014 - 11:37 AM.


#13 Danail Bulgaria

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 04:24 PM

... the best way to reduce risk of dying for myself is to become an entrepreneur, make big money and donate it to anti-ageing research (or better, create a biotech company).

 

And... what is your progress in becomming an entrepreneur?
 



#14 cats_lover

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 05:54 PM

 

... the best way to reduce risk of dying for myself is to become an entrepreneur, make big money and donate it to anti-ageing research (or better, create a biotech company).

 

And... what is your progress in becomming an entrepreneur?
 

 

 

Antonio have a good point of view. If you really want to be immortal you can: study and work in research, or engage in business and help fund research.
 



#15 Guybrush Threepwood

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 06:11 PM

I agree, but can I ask you to stay in topic? Open another thread if you want to talk about how to help the research or other things not topic related



#16 cats_lover

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 06:40 PM

I agree, but can I ask you to stay in topic? Open another thread if you want to talk about how to help the research or other things not topic related

 

Coming back to the main topic, you also have to consider the country where you live and safety of that country.

In my country for example (unfortunately) the crime is growing exponentially and just go out side is a big risk. I live in Spain, Swiss and USA (etc) before and are safer countries, you do not have to worry about a criminal who can kill you to steal your shoes...

 

Even health services here (as in most countries of South America) are terrible.

 

I do not know in which country you live Guybrush, but maybe you might consider moving to another country (if you live in a country unsafe).

 

By the way, you have a Sub-Fourm called " Risks & Survival" in longecity, maybe you also want to start a topic in there.

Risks & Survival


#17 Antonio2014

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 06:55 PM

I think I was on topic. You asked what we think is the best way to reduce risk of dying and how we behave. I replied with what I think is the best way and what I do.

 

@seivtcho: My plan is to begin with the computer business. It's the cheapest and easiest entry point. You can make big money with little funding, if you have a good idea (like Musk, Zuckerberg, ...). If all goes well, then I can create other kind of companies. Yeah, the odds are low, but is there any better thing to do with my life? What can I lose? If I win, I gain immortality. If I lose... well, I would die anyway.


Edited by Antonio2014, 17 September 2014 - 06:55 PM.


#18 Guybrush Threepwood

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Posted 17 September 2014 - 07:33 PM

 

I agree, but can I ask you to stay in topic? Open another thread if you want to talk about how to help the research or other things not topic related

 

Coming back to the main topic, you also have to consider the country where you live and safety of that country.

In my country for example (unfortunately) the crime is growing exponentially and just go out side is a big risk. I live in Spain, Swiss and USA (etc) before and are safer countries, you do not have to worry about a criminal who can kill you to steal your shoes...

 

Even health services here (as in most countries of South America) are terrible.

 

I do not know in which country you live Guybrush, but maybe you might consider moving to another country (if you live in a country unsafe).

 

By the way, you have a Sub-Fourm called " Risks & Survival" in longecity, maybe you also want to start a topic in there.

Risks & Survival

 

 

I live in Italy, it's safe, but there is a lack of regulation about cryonics and probably also about supplement. I didn't post on Risks & survival because I think it's more general.

 

 

I think I was on topic. You asked what we think is the best way to reduce risk of dying and how we behave. I replied with what I think is the best way and what I do.

 

@seivtcho: My plan is to begin with the computer business. It's the cheapest and easiest entry point. You can make big money with little funding, if you have a good idea (like Musk, Zuckerberg, ...). If all goes well, then I can create other kind of companies. Yeah, the odds are low, but is there any better thing to do with my life? What can I lose? If I win, I gain immortality. If I lose... well, I would die anyway.

 

Yeah, but now you are off topic. For personal conversations you could send him private messages. Please don't write back to this post, I have nothing against you.



#19 Florian Xavier

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:32 PM

immortality does not exist, your 15 years old you is dead.



#20 Guybrush Threepwood

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:46 PM

immortality does not exist, your 15 years old you is dead.

 

I don't think so, in your logic my me from 1 second ago is dead too.



#21 shadowhawk

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:54 PM

Death by accident is very high.  Lots of my friends are dead by accident.  In two lifetimes it would be almost 100%  :sad:



#22 Guybrush Threepwood

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:15 PM

Death by accident is very high.  Lots of my friends are dead by accident.  In two lifetimes it would be almost 100%  :sad:

 

:(. But do you think we can do something to avoid dying accidentally?



#23 shadowhawk

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:24 PM

Somewhat... Be very careful as you noted in the first post.  :)



#24 Danail Bulgaria

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Posted 20 September 2014 - 06:19 AM

 

Death by accident is very high.  Lots of my friends are dead by accident.  In two lifetimes it would be almost 100%  :sad:

 

:(. But do you think we can do something to avoid dying accidentally?

 

 

Yup, you can. I cross the street every day, and I am still alive :) You only must look the both sides for comming cars. I think the children today know that.


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#25 PWAIN

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Posted 20 September 2014 - 10:56 AM

Death by accident is very high.  Lots of my friends are dead by accident.  In two lifetimes it would be almost 100%  :sad:

 

WRONG!!!

 

Take this as a random sample:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death

 

From all causes, roughly 150,000 people die around the world each day. Of these, two thirds die directly or indirectly due to senescence, but in industrialized countries—such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany—the rate approaches 90%, i.e.,nearly nine out of ten of all deaths are related to senescence.

 

So you could live 10 lifetimes in an industrialized country and probably a whole lot more if you take basic precautions and are not a big risk taker.

 

So it still stands, if you want to have the best chance of living long into the future, don't take obvious stupid risks but much more importantly focus on your general health. This is where you will get the best chance of payback ie. of extending your life.



#26 forever freedom

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Posted 21 September 2014 - 07:36 PM

If we had already beaten aging, reducing risk of all possible causes of death at the expense of functioning normally in society would make perfect sense. 

 

But we have not beaten aging yet, and may not beat it in this century, there's a good chance all people alive today will die out. Make no mistake, i really really want us to beat aging, but it may not happen soon enough for us to enjoy it.

 

With that in mind it makes no sense to me to spend life in fear of dying, instead of enjoying life as much as we can. Also, if all immortalists were to hide in bunkers right now who would be left to steer society in the right direction and help it to beat aging? We need to go out there and try to make as much difference as possible, who knows, you or I could be the final drop of water necessary to break the dam and make us beat aging while we are still alive.


Edited by forever freedom, 21 September 2014 - 07:36 PM.

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#27 shadowhawk

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Posted 22 September 2014 - 09:41 PM

I said in two lifetimes your odds of dying by accident are extremely high.  That is about 180 years give or take.  Your chances of dying in one lifetime right now are 100 %.  This discussions merit does not hinge on these stats alone.  Accidents can and do kill and are a real problem for indefinite life.  
http://www.viralnova...ances-of-dying/
http://blog.timesuni...-of-dying/2515/
http://shop.nsc.org/...-Book-P320.aspx
http://www.nsc.org/n...ry-Facts-43.pdf
http://health.howstu...re-the-odds.htm
http://www.besthealt...m/health-risks/
http://www.medhelp.o...eath/193?page=1
http://www.livescien...odds-dying.html
http://www.riskcomm....datasources.php
http://www.economist...2/daily-chart-7
http://gizmodo.com/5...-than-you-think
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort
http://dying.about.c...p/oddsdying.htm
http://www.v1news.co...ds_of_dying.htm

 
 



#28 PWAIN

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Posted 22 September 2014 - 10:33 PM

I said in two lifetimes your odds of dying by accident are extremely high. 

 

You said and I quote verbatim:

 

In two lifetimes it would be almost 100%

 

My arguement stands since 10% accident mortality is nowhere near "almost 100%".

 

 

That is about 180 years give or take.  Your chances of dying in one lifetime right now are 100 %. 

But we're talking about accidental death. Enough with the straw men.

 

 

This discussions merit does not hinge on these stats alone.  Accidents can and do kill and are a real problem for indefinite life.

That is true but the point is that accidents as only a relativly small risk (10%) should not be the focus of the op but rather he should focus on the other 90% that is more likely to kill him, 900% more likely. Of course if the return for effort means that it is less effort and uses more resources to clost the gap on accidents, the equation swings slightly. However living in a bunker is more likely to harm him health wise than it is to protect him from accident.

 

Sorry I won''t trawl thru 14 links, thats just lazy on your part. If you want to quote briefly from 1 or 2 and put the relevant links for me to confirm, then fine, but listing 14 links without even putting context is frankly quite rude.



#29 shadowhawk

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Posted 23 September 2014 - 01:38 AM

I said accidents will kill almost 100% or extremely high percentage in two lifetimes and there is 100% death in one lifetime.  Perhaps you have the exact figures.  If you lived a relatively short period, you would die from an accident for sure,(100%) if the other causes were removed. Apparently this is beyond you and not worth debating.  So You don’t want to look at the links I provided, then don’t.  It is obviously to much and to disturbing.

There are tens of thousands of accidental reasons people die and we at Longecity are focusing on only a few of them which you claim make up 90%.  Why don’t you list them with their percentage?  You act as if there are only a few reasons for death and accidents are not a good part of them..  The struggle against death covers a wide front.  My argument is that within a relatively short period accidental death is sure to get you.  So be carefull.
 



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#30 Danail Bulgaria

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Posted 23 September 2014 - 09:22 AM

....
There are tens of thousands of accidental reasons people die and we at Longecity are focusing on only a few of them ...  Why don’t you list them with their percentage?  You act as if there are only a few reasons for death and accidents are not a good part of them. ...

 

At this moment the process of aging and the death from aging is sure. Take it 100% So far there is no proven way to defeat the aging and the such called "involutionary death".

 

Accidents are relatively rare. You may avoid them if you are cautious.

 

So, if you know, that you may die 100% from aging and 0,001% from car crash, then it is normally people to focus over the 100% sure death from aging, rather than to the car crashes, especially if they simply can drive cautiosly.
 







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