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Global Demographic Collapse has Arrived!

total fertility rate demography singularity conflict

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#31 mag1

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 10:18 PM

Japan's population was reported in decline for the first time only last year.

https://www.washingt...m=.0f147027afa0

 

The file below shows something of even greater demographic concern: the large and ongoing decline in the number of young people in Japan.

Their population of young people has been in exponential decline for decades. There are now only 50% in the 0-5 age range versus the

40-44 age range. A similar pattern would also be seen in other modern nations if they had also chosen to not mask it with open immigration policies.

Such declines constitute a nearly unprecedented demographic collapse. If this trend in Japan were to continue throughout the 21st Century,

then it would not be entirely unreasonable to suggest that Japan would no longer have a sustainable or functioning society.

 

One of the great ironies of this development is that conflict all over the world is now becoming less likely. Germany's stated objective during the

Second World War was to acquire Lebensraum. With the widespread demographic collapse that is now underway in nearly every nation and almost

every region of the world, such living space can be achieved peacefully as nations gradually empty. During the 20th Century the accepted logic was

that people needed to fight for space due to the population crisis that Malthus had foresaw two centuries earlier. However, during the 21st Century the

more probable strategy to gain space will be to simply wait that can be clearly foreseen in the above figures at the start of this thread.

 

One notable precedent for such demographic upheaval occurred in Europe during the Black Death. The resulting dramatic population collapse

resulted in much greater political, social and economic rights for those lacking power in these societies. It should not be entirely unexpected that

a similar outcome is now in the offing.  

Attached Files


Edited by mag1, 10 August 2017 - 11:08 PM.


#32 jack black

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 05:47 PM

Japan's population was reported in decline for the first time only last year.

https://www.washingt...m=.0f147027afa0

 

 

From your link, the change was documented in the census between 2010-2015, so it's not just "last year."

From other sources it has been declining since 2001: https://www.google.c...RUS&hl=en&dl=en

check also the demographic problem in Russia.


Edited by jack black, 14 August 2017 - 05:50 PM.


#33 mag1

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 12:43 AM

Thank you, Jack.

 

 

I was not entirely sure when the population decline started to occurred in Japan.

It certainly feels as though Japan's population has been in decline for decades.

Generally with a census all they can tell you is the population at two points in time separated by 5 years, which is not especially exact.

 

The url you provided actually clarifies that the decline in population is projected to have started in 2010 and it picked up noticeably over the last

year or two. It will be very interesting to see how Japanese political sentiment shifts as this long term demographic force expresses itself.

 

Most worrisome is the loss of all of that top end nerd power.

The disappearance of 1 million potential nerds / nerdettes (18 year old Japanese) is a serious loss for all of humanity.

One can only dread how much more human potential will not be born in Japan and across all other nations in the world due to this demographic collapse.

 

I am sure that we can all be grown ups about this, we can let bygones be bygones, and wedgies and other indignities to nerd nation to be forgiven.

With that said, (also as an appeal to the adults in the house), we can also recognize that we need nerds. Life is getting complicated.

A singularity event will not make things easier. It should be self-evident who will be the ones who can solve our problems.

 

The problem is that many of those people are not being born anymore.

All those cures and all those inventions that will not manifest because those people were never born.

The totality of humanity's psychometric potential is in decline.

 

However, with the recent unlocking of the human genome along with CRISPR perhaps we can get back on track.

With genetic engineering we might be just around the corner from nerd world.

 

Yes, the demographic situation in Russia is even bleaker.

Very low fertility rates, very low life expectancy, a certain amount of a panic to run to the airport and get out of there before everyone else has.

 


Edited by mag1, 15 August 2017 - 01:03 AM.


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#34 PWAIN

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:38 AM

I think the discrepancy is that Japan's birth rate has been in decline but due to a longer lived population, the overall population continued to grow. Now we are seeing more elderly and a higher death rate resulting in an actual decline in overall population. It will probably get much worse for the next few decades as the population bulge works its way thru.
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#35 mag1

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:57 AM

Pwain, yes that is exactly correct, though I suppose you could have more elderly with lower age specific mortality rates and still have population decline.

 

Demographic trends certainly exhibit the ice berg effect: once it heads in one direction the momentum is going to keep it moving

in the same direction for up to a century.

 

Anyone have a url for a Japanese population projection?

It is not hard to see with the population pyramid that over the next few decades things will become choppy.

As soon as you replace the 10 million person part of the pyramid with the 5 million person part, you're down 5 million.

 

Wonder when they blink?

This looks scary - - very scary.

At some point they are probably going to have to reconsider their cultural assumptions.

 

Tokyo --> cosmopolitan New York?

Does not seem likely, though the demographic reality at street level does not look appealing.

 

I would love to see them stay the course.

If they were not to cave in and reverse their immigration policy, then they would have to intensify their robotics R&D.

 

Necessity is the mother of invention.

If they are put in a corner and have to solve these interesting robotics challenges, they will.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Edited by mag1, 15 August 2017 - 03:08 AM.


#36 mag1

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 03:21 AM

When I looked at the population pyramid, a projection of 100 million at 2100 did not make sense to me

(I read somewhere there was a 100 million target. I had not remembered that this target was for 2050).

 

The below figure shows that the 2100 target is actually 40 million!

Some of the comments on this issue appear to show more concern with how Japan will cope with relatively more older people than

the absolute decline in population numbers.

 

This is going to be very very interesting to watch.



#37 mag1

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 03:24 AM

When I looked at the population pyramid, a projection of 100 million at 2100 did not make sense to me

(I read somewhere there was a 100 million target. I had not remembered that this target was for 2050!).

 

The below figure shows that the 2100 target is actually 40 million! It's nearly a perfect bell curve. The population at the start of the

22nd Century will be almost exactly where it was at the start of the 20th.

 

Some of the comments on this issue appear to show more concern with how Japan will cope with relatively more older people than

the absolute decline in population numbers.

 

This is going to be very very interesting to watch.

 

The negative differential is easy to spot. Yet, it is only when you make it past the top of the hill and then start sliding down do

people finally perceive how serious a problem that this will be. Demographics does not turn on a dime.

 

Anyone have any indicators for the Japanese real estate market? REITS?

Would be instructive to have a time series for how these events play out: it might not be exactly as one might typically predict.

For example, some of the major cities could conceivably see an in migration as other areas retreated.

Centrality might intensify.

 

Japan would be such an interesting place to live, though I fully respect their cultural tradition of wanting to maintain their life as they have always known it.

I don't need anyone waving signs that read: "Honky go home" to get the message. Yet, given their demographic situation, it would not be impossible to imagine that

a rethinking of such a stance might at some time become inevitable.

 

 

Attached Files


Edited by mag1, 15 August 2017 - 03:42 AM.


#38 jroseland

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 04:12 PM

There's a factor in Global Demographic Collapse that makes it must more dire and disastrous than you guys are forecasting, a factor that people shy away from discussing here on Longecity. It's a factor that at least for the time being is beyond the overtone window of polite conversation. And Longecity is a fairly polite place.

 

That factor is white genocide; which is a very real thing if you're willing to accept the United Nation's official definition of genocide: 

 

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

 
Killing members of the group;
Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
 
Now perhaps you're a progressive liberal and you're quiet skeptical of white genocide (or perhaps you'd cheer on white genocide, which is weirdly popular in progressive liberal circles) but white genocide will be very, very bad for the rest of the population of the planet because of how we have very stupidly defied the Malthusian trap in this century.
world-economic-history-587x310.png
 
The Malthusian trap is a pretty simple observation that a given population of humans is regulated by the productive capacity of the land they live on and the productive capacity of the humans. If the humans produce significantly more mouths to feed than the food they can get from their land, then there's going to be famine, the fecundity of the group of humans is go to drop, some people are going to starve. Some old people are going to die off. It's going to be a sad couple of months or years but nature will regulate the population group's size to back down to what's appropriate for that space. Over time the Malthusian trap is actually a good thing though, it produces a smarter, hardier population group. England is a classic example of how the Malthusian trap works slowly to eventually produce a really fit population that can eventually go on to conquer the rest of the world. This is, by the way, why so many Anglo people have the last name Smith.
 
In the 20th century Western countries, in extreme foolishness defied the Malthusian trap by donating 4 trillion dollars in foreign aid to less developed countries. This lead to an unprecedented population explosion mostly in Africa. There are now billions of people in the world that fundamentally rely on the altruism of others for their caloric intake. Foolishly we gave a man a fish, instead of teaching him how to fish.
 
Now, all major western countries are on the precipice of severe financial collapse. When the financial apocalypse comes for the west, we won't be able to afford to be so charitable with the developing world and billions of people will begin to starve. We'll see truly horrific wars in Africa and likely Europe over scarce resources.
 
This won't be a financial collapse that we bounce back from like the crash of 2008. It will be a reflection of the slow genocide of the most economically productive population on Earth that is currently taking care of everyone else. We are 25-50 years away from white genocide becoming painfully apparent to the average person. We really are headed for the world of Idiocracy.
 
The global demographic winter is coming. Mathus's trap has been sprung.

Edited by jroseland, 08 October 2017 - 04:15 PM.

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#39 pamojja

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 05:09 PM

A bid shortsighted.

 

 

Early human migrations
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Earliest human migrations and expansions of archaic and modern humans across continents began 2 million years ago with the migration out of Africa of Homo erectus. This was followed by the migrations of other pre-modern humans including H. heidelbergensis, the likely ancestor of both anatomically modern humans and Neanderthals. Finally, the recent African origin paradigm suggests that Homo sapiens migrated out of Africa around 100,000 years ago, spread across Asia approximately 60,000 years ago, and subsequently populated other continents and islands.

 

We all came from Africa, and those migrating early enough all turned white. So will the late-comers. In about a 100,000 years.



#40 sthira

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 05:13 PM

Race is a social construct: https://www.scientif...ientists-argue/
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#41 mag1

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 07:16 PM

Thank you everyone for posting!

This topic is important and I am glad that the conversation has been restarted.

 

I was KOed for the last month by the potential for 1500 IQ people (see url below, last page or so of the thread).

My best guess is that we are  on the precipice of extreme intellectual enhancement.

 

http://www.longecity...e-6#entry828006

 

 

We are now perhaps 5 years away from a perceptible increase in human IQ from basic genetic technologies {The start of the Genetic Singularity).

Genetic engineering will then amp until reaching 1500 IQ people. The Singularity would then be less than 20 years out.

 

Give or take we are about 25-35 years away from the Singularity- infinite technology.

 

 

I have tried to avoid considering some of the more difficult racial aspects of the Global Demographic Collapse that is now underway.

jroseland mentions some sobering reminders about the challenges of the future.

 

It is true that I am starting to see white fright flight popping up in my locale. Russians, French, Chinese ... I am aware of quite a few people

that had to get away from their homelands and try to live someplace else. In the past I might have given a more xenophobic welcome, though

there is now a greater sense that these people are true refugees. It must be all to obvious to many that live in these societies that social collapse

is everywhere around them.

 

Russia is experiencing a demographic emergency. Low life expectancy and low fertility and high out migration = a near term demographic crisis.

At some point there simply might be a mass rush to the exits. How would we cope with 100 million Russian refugees? 

 

 

In this century, population collapse will occur in many highly or moderately developed nations with large populations such as the US, Japan, Russia, and others.

While some of the least developed nations including, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria etc. now have rapidly growing populations and will continue to climb up the

lists of the most populous in the world.

 

We need to all be concerned about this. When AIDS hit, the world community was able to formulate an effective response

to help those in need who lacked resources especially in Africa. If the balance shifts to a world in which more of the people are in need of help than can offer help,

then a disaster (such as AIDS) simply might be considered too big to solve. Everyone needs to strive to save capital for a rainy day.   

 

It is of course highly ironic that the peoples of the future now no longer see a future and are in the midst of truly extreme demographic collapse.

Yet, the people, who can best be thought of as being beyond our conception of time, are our future.


Edited by mag1, 08 October 2017 - 07:28 PM.


#42 jack black

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 03:05 PM

 


 
Now perhaps you're a progressive liberal and you're quiet skeptical of white genocide (or perhaps you'd cheer on white genocide, which is weirdly popular in progressive liberal circles)

 

 

i find this post so offensive, it discredits everything else you write (not just in this post).

 

i agree with you just on one thing: idiocracy. i watched that movie and idiocracy truly came to the USA. look at the idiot president the white trash masses elected themselves. "white genocide" indeed!


Edited by jack black, 11 October 2017 - 03:06 PM.

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#43 jack black

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 06:13 PM

Race is a social construct: https://www.scientif...ientists-argue/

 

of course it is. when you have children of mixed parentage, they are always called black and never white. here you go. IMHO, Barack Obama is more white than black, yet the racists hated him anyhow.
 



#44 gemineyes

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:19 AM

 

 


 
Now perhaps you're a progressive liberal and you're quiet skeptical of white genocide (or perhaps you'd cheer on white genocide, which is weirdly popular in progressive liberal circles)

 

 

i find this post so offensive, it discredits everything else you write (not just in this post).

 

i agree with you just on one thing: idiocracy. i watched that movie and idiocracy truly came to the USA. look at the idiot president the white trash masses elected themselves. "white genocide" indeed!

 

 

Just out of curiosity, how exactly does that post offend you? Could you explain the feelings that came up from reading that post and perhaps why you felt them more in-depth? I'm very interested. Not being sarcastic or attacking you or anything.


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#45 jack black

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 08:50 PM

 

 

 


 
Now perhaps you're a progressive liberal and you're quiet skeptical of white genocide (or perhaps you'd cheer on white genocide, which is weirdly popular in progressive liberal circles)

 

 

i find this post so offensive, it discredits everything else you write (not just in this post).

 

i agree with you just on one thing: idiocracy. i watched that movie and idiocracy truly came to the USA. look at the idiot president the white trash masses elected themselves. "white genocide" indeed!

 

 

Just out of curiosity, how exactly does that post offend you? Could you explain the feelings that came up from reading that post and perhaps why you felt them more in-depth? I'm very interested. Not being sarcastic or attacking you or anything.

 

 

i find it offensive that someone implies progressive liberal people have nothing else better to do than cheering any type of genocide (even if it's just imaginary).

 

 
 


Edited by jack black, 16 October 2017 - 08:51 PM.


#46 Heisok

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 10:07 PM

Wow, please do not flame me for this.

 

A little extreme on both sides I think.

 

"Now perhaps you're a progressive liberal and you're quiet skeptical of white genocide (or perhaps you'd cheer on white genocide, which is weirdly popular in progressive liberal circles)"

 

"look at the idiot president the white trash masses elected themselves. "white genocide" indeed!"

 

Not a fan in any respect, but the attitude indicated about whom the Trump voters were is part of the reason he got elected. Many are hard working people who could not accept the perceived or experienced lack of any help or engagement from previous administrations, and the alternative candidates. My feeling is that until candidates address the apparent lack of recognition, they will have problems going forward. I have heard much complaining about the election, and not much addressing issues for all parts of the Country, and demographics.

 

 


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#47 jack black

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Posted Yesterday, 03:01 AM


 

Many are hard working people who could not accept the perceived or experienced lack of any help or engagement from previous administrations, and the alternative candidates.

 

look, I'm a hard working person too, who perceived or experienced lack of any help or engagement from previous politicians. but i was not naive thinking that a narcissistic outsider well known for cheating everyone to make a buck will make our lives somehow better.

 

do you go to a local butcher for you health needs? no, i didn't think so.


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#48 mag1

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Posted Yesterday, 04:03 AM

I think niner was so on the mark with his idea that the run up to the Singularity will be difficult to transition through.

We are charging forward to an increasingly uncertain future and the social strain is clearly visible.

 

The emergent problems that we are seeing (as described in some of the threads below) give a glimpse behind what middle America

and the heartlands of many other nations are now experiencing. We have entered a time of truly profound change and people all over

the world are starting to lose faith in the political and other leaderships that have always been able to help get us through past trouble.

 

This profound loss of confidence by the people in the elite might be a long term trend. While perhaps certain recent populist

choices have not been overly helpful, more mainstream choices might not be able to meaningfully to help us either.

 

http://www.longecity...crispr-editing/

http://www.longecity...ost-human-jobs/

 

What exactly should be done to resolve the profound global demographic crisis?

The approaching Genetic Singularity and Singularity Events?

The impending collapse of the retail economy?

 

If someone with a reasonable amount of credibility could clearly communicate a solution to these problems, then

our elites could reassert their intellectual legitimacy. The fact that this does not appear to be in the works should

give us all pause.

 

The gnawing concern is that these serious problems and others have no viable solutions.

If true, then we really are up the creek and current leadership simply serves the purpose of reminding us how far up the creek we are.

 







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