110.61
(75 supercentenarian)
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Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people
Started by
struct
, Oct 26 2006 04:59 AM
302 replies to this topic
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#127
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Posted 25 October 2007 - 10:49 PM
110.62
(77 supercentenarian)
A year ago (Oct. 25, 2006), when I started this topic, the Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people was 110.73. Today (Oct. 25, 2007) it's 110.62.
According to my definition of my life expectancy, I am about 1 year and 40 days closer to death compare to a year ago (i.e I aged 1.11 years in one year). That's not good!
I'll keep posting in this topic as frequently as I have been posting until the Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people reaches 111.00 and the number of the living supercentenarians reaches 100. Once this happens I'll update the numbers only once a month.
(77 supercentenarian)
A year ago (Oct. 25, 2006), when I started this topic, the Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people was 110.73. Today (Oct. 25, 2007) it's 110.62.
According to my definition of my life expectancy, I am about 1 year and 40 days closer to death compare to a year ago (i.e I aged 1.11 years in one year). That's not good!
I'll keep posting in this topic as frequently as I have been posting until the Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people reaches 111.00 and the number of the living supercentenarians reaches 100. Once this happens I'll update the numbers only once a month.
#134
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Posted 01 February 2008 - 12:53 AM
110.56
(77 superC)
(77 superC)
2007 => 110.8After doing some peak fittings and extrapolations for the data that grg.org has privided for the years 1972-2006 these are the numbers that I came up for the average age of 100 VOLP for those years.
Average Age of 100 Validated Oldest Living People (1972-2006)
1972 => 104.9
1973 => 105.0
1974 => 104.9
1975 => 105.1
1976 => 105.0
1977 => 105.1
1978 => 105.1
1979 => 106.1
1980 => 107.2
1981 => 107.2
1982 (missing)
1983 (missing)
1984 => 107.9
1985 => 108.1
1986 => 108.9
1987 => 108.9
1988 => 108.9
1989 => 109.0
1990 => 108.9
1991 => 109.2
1992 => 109.9
1993 => 109.9
1994 => 109.9
1995-2005 (missing)
2006 => 110.8
#142
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Posted 13 March 2008 - 07:16 PM
110.6 years
Note that I reduced the significant figures to four for being more compact and for better impacting the audience when updating this number (e.g. changing it by 0.1 years increments is more impressive than changing it by 0.01 years increments). If the above number does not change, there will be no update of that number despite the change in the number of the validated living supercentenarians.
Note that I reduced the significant figures to four for being more compact and for better impacting the audience when updating this number (e.g. changing it by 0.1 years increments is more impressive than changing it by 0.01 years increments). If the above number does not change, there will be no update of that number despite the change in the number of the validated living supercentenarians.
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Posted 10 April 2008 - 08:14 PM
Other fascinating thing:
it is known that, every year, the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries increases by roughly a quarter
(using recent mortality tables in the UK I get 0.23 more life every year)
(The "average lifespan" increase is in fact not linear and in fact rather exponential)
Your analysis leads to the conclusion that the MAXIMUM lifespan (avg top 100 lifespan in the world) ALSO increases by roughly a quarter every year (0.2278) !!!
This somehow contradicts the general opinion that we are reaching "lifespan rectangularization", i.e. approaching a maximum-lifespan-limit.
it is known that, every year, the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries increases by roughly a quarter
(using recent mortality tables in the UK I get 0.23 more life every year)
(The "average lifespan" increase is in fact not linear and in fact rather exponential)
Your analysis leads to the conclusion that the MAXIMUM lifespan (avg top 100 lifespan in the world) ALSO increases by roughly a quarter every year (0.2278) !!!
This somehow contradicts the general opinion that we are reaching "lifespan rectangularization", i.e. approaching a maximum-lifespan-limit.
#148
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Posted 11 April 2008 - 01:27 AM
110.5 years
Thanks AgeVivo for the interesting information about the increase of the average age of 100 VOLPs being about the same as the increase of the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries.
The general public opinion that we are reaching maximum-lifespan limit (i.e. beyond that no person can live) is probably based on the fact that the oldest person that ever lived (validated) reached 122 years (in 1997) and nobody else is breaking that record. Now the oldest person is 114 years old. Does that mean that the maximum-lifespan of people have decreased!? One data point isn't that good for statistical analysis, is it? That's why I chose 100.
But the general public, for a quick answer of 'what's the maximum lifetime of humans?' they get 122, and they have heard the same answer for more than a decade; thus, the misleading idea of a fixed human maximum-lifespan.
Other fascinating thing:
it is known that, every year, the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries increases by roughly a quarter
(using recent mortality tables in the UK I get 0.23 more life every year)
(The "average lifespan" increase is in fact not linear and in fact rather exponential)
Your analysis leads to the conclusion that the MAXIMUM lifespan (avg top 100 lifespan in the world) ALSO increases by roughly a quarter every year (0.2278) !!!
This somehow contradicts the general opinion that we are reaching "lifespan rectangularization", i.e. approaching a maximum-lifespan-limit.
Thanks AgeVivo for the interesting information about the increase of the average age of 100 VOLPs being about the same as the increase of the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries.
The general public opinion that we are reaching maximum-lifespan limit (i.e. beyond that no person can live) is probably based on the fact that the oldest person that ever lived (validated) reached 122 years (in 1997) and nobody else is breaking that record. Now the oldest person is 114 years old. Does that mean that the maximum-lifespan of people have decreased!? One data point isn't that good for statistical analysis, is it? That's why I chose 100.
But the general public, for a quick answer of 'what's the maximum lifetime of humans?' they get 122, and they have heard the same answer for more than a decade; thus, the misleading idea of a fixed human maximum-lifespan.
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Posted 12 April 2008 - 12:09 PM
Hi struct,
I completely agree with the fact that the "longests lifespan ever", although fascinating, doesn't tell us anything statistically.
Could you also compute the STANDARD ERROR of the mean(=S.E.M.=standard deviation/sqrt(100)) of the 100 oldests ages every year, as you did for the AVERAGE?
this may be interesting for 2 reasons:
1) see if the stderr evolves in a particular fashion (it would have non unique interpretations...)
2) in which measure we can statistically* say that the maximum lifespan is increasing
*for example if recent averages are by more than 2 stderrs above old averages we can say with 95% confidence that the average top 100 maximum lifespan is increasing.
I completely agree with the fact that the "longests lifespan ever", although fascinating, doesn't tell us anything statistically.
Could you also compute the STANDARD ERROR of the mean(=S.E.M.=standard deviation/sqrt(100)) of the 100 oldests ages every year, as you did for the AVERAGE?
this may be interesting for 2 reasons:
1) see if the stderr evolves in a particular fashion (it would have non unique interpretations...)
2) in which measure we can statistically* say that the maximum lifespan is increasing
*for example if recent averages are by more than 2 stderrs above old averages we can say with 95% confidence that the average top 100 maximum lifespan is increasing.
#150
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 03:39 AM
When I did the averaging I had to extrapolate for the number of people of a particular age below 110-years-old age [at 110 they become supercentenarians and they make it to the grg.org list(s) that I have used]. However, the data closer to our present time becomes more and more reliable (less extrapolating). For example if I had to compute the Av. Age of 100 VOLP right now I have to consider 75 supercentenarians + 25 people that are [assumed] 109 years old; this assumption is quite reliable since there are already 27 111-years old and 27 110-years old validated and one expect that number to increase as you go down in years (109, 108, 107 group, etc).
So, when viewing S.E.M below you have te keep in mind that the data has been heavily extrapolated for the earlier years.
year---Av. (yrs)--S.E.M (yrs)
1972 => 104.9---0.14
1973 => 105.0---0.15
1974 => 104.9---0.14
1975 => 105.1---0.16
1976 => 105.0---0.16
1977 => 105.1---0.16
1978 => 105.1---0.17
1979 => 106.1---0.16
1980 => 107.2---0.16
1981 => 107.2---0.16
1982 (missing)
1983 (missing)
1984 => 107.9---0.15
1985 => 108.1---0.17
1986 => 108.9---0.16
1987 => 108.9---0.12
1988 => 108.9---0.13
1989 => 109.0---0.13
1990 => 108.9---0.14
1991 => 109.2---0.15
1992 => 109.9---0.13
1993 => 109.9---0.15
1994 => 109.9---0.16
1995-2005 (missing)
2006 => 110.8
2007 => 110.8
2008--------------0.13 (at this moment)
So, when viewing S.E.M below you have te keep in mind that the data has been heavily extrapolated for the earlier years.
year---Av. (yrs)--S.E.M (yrs)
1972 => 104.9---0.14
1973 => 105.0---0.15
1974 => 104.9---0.14
1975 => 105.1---0.16
1976 => 105.0---0.16
1977 => 105.1---0.16
1978 => 105.1---0.17
1979 => 106.1---0.16
1980 => 107.2---0.16
1981 => 107.2---0.16
1982 (missing)
1983 (missing)
1984 => 107.9---0.15
1985 => 108.1---0.17
1986 => 108.9---0.16
1987 => 108.9---0.12
1988 => 108.9---0.13
1989 => 109.0---0.13
1990 => 108.9---0.14
1991 => 109.2---0.15
1992 => 109.9---0.13
1993 => 109.9---0.15
1994 => 109.9---0.16
1995-2005 (missing)
2006 => 110.8
2007 => 110.8
2008--------------0.13 (at this moment)
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