14 replies to this topic

[bluemoon]

Just a reminder that ChromaDex will have a conference call webcast today, Aug 10th, at 4:30 p.m. EST that anyone can listen to.

 

 

http://investors.chr...1&p=irol-irhome

Edited by bluemoon, 10 August 2017 - 05:53 PM.

[malbecman]

 This snippet was interesting  "

For the three months ended July 1, 2017 ("Q2 2017"), ChromaDex reported net sales of $5.3 million, compared to $8.8 million for the three months ended July 2, 2016 ("Q2 2016").     

The ingredients segment generated net sales of $3.0 million for Q2 2017, compared to $6.2 million for Q2 2016, the decrease largely as a result of terminating our largest customer during fiscal year 2016"

 

Any guesses as to who their largest customer was a year ago?

[bluemoon]

 

The meeting started late and the last 15 minutes were answering 4 questions by one ChromaDex cheerleader on the science and history so not much time for hard questions. The CEO once again put off releasing the 140 person trial results that he earlier said would be announced in June/July then July-September to now sometime "in coming months." He ripped on Elysium for selling NR that isn't Niagen, and it was mentioned that they are waiting for current vendors to thin out before they ramp up promoting Tru-Niagen online. One guess for the delay of announcing the trial results is that they want that to coincide with a fall or winter campaign of Tru Niagen. Elysium also says it has six more Basis trials coming so something is up.

 

It looks like ChromaDex no longer has a monopoly on producing NR and that it is going head to head with Elysium. 

 

The stock at $2.90 a share was down 5% today and down 20% in the past two weeks.   

 

3:30 pm CDT meeting

 

3:38  opening  by the CEO

3:43  trials -   media blackout for U of Colorado study mentioned

3:46  140 person trial - finalizing analysis. report "sometime over the coming months."

3:49  Elysium - ChromaDex is seeking to recover $3 million from Elysium, blasts new NR/non Niagen use in Basis. 

 

3:51   year to year sales down because not selling to Elysium  

3:59  Horizons Ventures shareholder - strategic partner with Asian pharmacies?

4:00  Have eliminated a majority of vendors. Some vendors will remain. Waiting for more thinning before 

          focus on selling Tru-Niagen online. PR, television, print and social media education (advertisements)

4:05  For now, using the name Tru-Niagen but Pro Health name will change.

4:06  legal expenses with respect to Elysium litigation.  Li Kai Shang investment: no specifics given

          but involves expansion into Asian markets.

 

4:11  Cheerleader investor asks for a review of the importance of NAD+.   Kreb cycle, ATP also declines during aging. more NAD+ >> more ATP.

4:17  President discuss journey from sirtuins, etc. Rips on Elysium for copying ingredient and fighting the patents.

4:23  Horizon Ventures background, repeat of earlier answer.

4:26  closing remarks 

 

Like I said, the last four questions were from one guy who seemed like a plant. 

Edited by bluemoon, 10 August 2017 - 09:59 PM.

[able]

Nice recap blue moon.  

 

Very underwhelming performance imo.

 

Yes, the last questioner thru up 4 softballs, and acted impressed even tho the answers were a lot of weak rambling nothing burger.

 

It does sound like Elysium and Chromadex will be at war.  Maybe a good thing for us consumers?

[HappyPaul]

Nothing about the P&G patent for a method of producing NR? 

[bluemoon]

Nice recap blue moon.  

 

Very underwhelming performance imo.

 

Yes, the last questioner thru up 4 softballs, and acted impressed even tho the answers were a lot of weak rambling nothing burger.

 

It does sound like Elysium and Chromadex will be at war.  Maybe a good thing for us consumers?

 

Yes, I think this is very good news to us little people taking NR. I thought the end of the webcast with the four softballs was an embarrassment for ChromaDex and now get the feeling as I suspected for months that it knows it is not a monopoly. Elysium already has half the NR market, and it remains to be seen if ChromaDex can compete. If so, it will have to compete on price, which is what consumers want.

 

(There was no mention of P&G.) 

Edited by bluemoon, 11 August 2017 - 03:17 AM.

[able]

 

 

Yes, I think this is very good news to us little people taking NR. I thought the end of the webcast with the four softballs was an embarrassment for ChromaDex and now get the feeling as I suspected for months that it knows it is not a monopoly. 

 

 

Yes, exactly what I thought.  

 

I like Chromadex, and think they have done a lot of things right and are far more honest that Elysium.  But Rob sounded like he was crying about how they did all this great work, then some bully came along, beat them up, and took their lunch money.  

 

Transcript here:

 

https://seekingalpha...ipt?part=single

[Evan Yang]

It is kind of expected that there will be competition in the NR space. ChromaDex is ahead of the game. 

The current stock price is too low. With just sales from Li Ka-shing's stores the stock price will be in the $20 or more.

Each drug indication is worth $20 or more. If they can get into Costco, that alone is worth $100. The potential is there. The company needs to execute. They have not done a good job so far. 

[able]

Evan Yang

Member Since Yesterday, 09:23 AM

 

Doing some PR work for Chromadex?

 

[bluemoon]

It is kind of expected that there will be competition in the NR space. ChromaDex is ahead of the game. 

The current stock price is too low. With just sales from Li Ka-shing's stores the stock price will be in the $20 or more.

Each drug indication is worth $20 or more. If they can get into Costco, that alone is worth $100. The potential is there. The company needs to execute. They have not done a good job so far. 

Hey, MikeDC! What did you think of the ChromaDex quarterly report?

[Oakman]

Considering, seems about time for Chromadex to do an Elysium Basis knock-off.  Start selling a Pteropure/Niagen combo of their own, call it "Karma".  Undercut Elysium's ridiculous pricing big time, grab some $$ back they've lost to those crooks.

 

Chromadex, are you listening?????

[bluemoon]

Considering, seems about time for Chromadex to do an Elysium Basis knock-off.  Start selling a Pteropure/Niagen combo of their own, call it "Karma".  Undercut Elysium's ridiculous pricing big time, grab some $$ back they've lost to those crooks.

 

Chromadex, are you listening?????

 

I don't buy Elysium because I don't want to pay a 12 month subscription to get the 250 mg NR  and 50 mg pterostilbine for $40    

 

Buying separate, it would cost me HPN $27 (large three month bottle divided by three) +  Jarrow $5 for 50 mg of pterostilbine = $32.  

 

But Tru Niagen is currently $43 for 250 mg of NR (three bottles divided by three) + Jarrow $5 for 50 mg of pterostiline = $48

 

That is about the same as Elysium Basis if a 6 month subscription. So ChromaDex's pricing is just as ridiculous as Elysium's $50.

 

ChromaDex could always sell its Tru Niagen at lower prices and Elysium's far better known product with its seven Nobel Laureates on their science advisory board may force ChromaDex to sell NR at a notably lower price at first.

Edited by bluemoon, 11 August 2017 - 06:11 PM.

[stefan_001]

I think Chromadex will do very well with the Niagen brand especially because they will expand globally. That in turn will boost volume and lower product cost. The status around Elysium's NR time will tell. If they both get 10M customers globally then both are worth billions.

[Oakman]

 

Considering, seems about time for Chromadex to do an Elysium Basis knock-off.  Start selling a Pteropure/Niagen combo of their own, call it "Karma".  Undercut Elysium's ridiculous pricing big time, grab some $$ back they've lost to those crooks.

 

Chromadex, are you listening?????

 

I don't buy Elysium because I don't want to pay a 12 month subscription to get the 250 mg NR  and 50 mg pterostilbine for $40    

 

Buying separate, it would cost me HPN $27 (large three month bottle divided by three) +  Jarrow $5 for 50 mg of pterostilbine = $32.  

 

But Tru Niagen is currently $43 for 250 mg of NR (three bottles divided by three) + Jarrow $5 for 50 mg of pterostiline = $48

 

That is about the same as Elysium Basis if a 6 month subscription. So ChromaDex's pricing is just as ridiculous as Elysium's $50.

 

ChromaDex could always sell its Tru Niagen at lower prices and Elysium's far better known product with its seven Nobel Laureates on their science advisory board may force ChromaDex to sell NR at a notably lower price at first.

 

 

"So ChromaDex's pricing is just as ridiculous as Elysium's $50.". 

 

Exactly, and why I said they "should"... and not just at first... but always.  And the reasons are pretty obvious:

 

1)  Niagen 'days in the sun' may be fading. 'Once' it was that new miracle supplement. No longer, because there is no good news. 

2)  Perception is reality. Their inability to release substantive trial data strongly hints that the outcomes were not good for whatever they we trying to prove. 

3)  If the general public even cares about any of this anymore, I would be very surprised. 

4)  I'd venture even die-hard supporters are beginning to wonder, "Where's the beef?"  I certainly am, and I'm REALLY trying to keep the faith.

5)  They are a tiny, insignificant player in the drug/supplement market with 3M$/qtr of product sales. That's a tenuous position for any small company.

 

So the bottom line from last quarter and before is, "Where's ANY good news?"

Edited by Oakman, 11 August 2017 - 07:15 PM.

[bluemoon]

  

 

"So ChromaDex's pricing is just as ridiculous as Elysium's $50.". 

 

Exactly, and why I said they "should"... and not just at first... but always.  And the reasons are pretty obvious:

 

1)  Niagen 'days in the sun' may be fading. 'Once' it was that new miracle supplement. No longer, because there is no good news. 

2)  Perception is reality. Their inability to release substantive trial data strongly hints that the outcomes were not good for whatever they we trying to prove. 

3)  If the general public even cares about any of this anymore, I would be very surprised. 

4)  I'd venture even die-hard supporters are beginning to wonder, "Where's the beef?"  I certainly am, and I'm REALLY trying to keep the faith.

5)  They are a tiny, insignificant player in the drug/supplement market with 3M$/qtr of product sales. That's a tenuous position for any small company.

 

So the bottom line from last quarter and before is, "Where's ANY good news?"

 

 

I was quite sure prior to the ChromaDex shareholders update that ChromDex would be stalling to get through the summer for a few reasons. I could see that the larger NR vendors were still selling, there was no announcement concerning the U of Colorado study, the results of the 140 person Chromadex study was already pushed back to July-September, and that Elysium said it could easily sell NR, which could have been a bluff but doubted it since I assumed that they could buy from a Chinese maker.

 

Ever since Elysium only put up the 40% increase in NAD+ with 250 mg NR + 50 mg of pterostilbine, I thought something was going on with respect to effectiveness at the different dosages and how much they thought people would be willing to pay if only the 500 mg NR / 100 mg NR dose showed clear positive results. This is the same for ChromaDex  and ChromaDex has no interest in giving Elysium publicity by releasing positive results until they have better marketing for Tru Niagen.

 

  Guarente said Elysium is setting up six new Basis trials, which to me seems like a strong sign they are looking at different dose ranges and are maybe including a study on just  diabetics, just obesity , etc. and want the results in before the other university results are published in 2018, 2019 and 2012. Eysium wouldn't do this if Basis was a bust at both 250 mg and 500 mg.

 

I  thought in 2015 that ChromaDex could do well in a relatively short time frame since a pharmaceutical could become a major competitor as well as Elysium with whatever they are cooking up next. Guarente said in the talk I linked to that an additional six trials are being planned for that, and I suspect NMN with ... something.

 

I also agree with stefan_100 that both companies could potentially do well.