Posted 20 April 2018 - 02:54 AM
Simply massive massive result.
Nature Genetics 3000 genome wide significant SNPS 37.6 SD EA found
Study has found over 500 EA/IQ points.
It really seems that those who have any clue about this have no idea what to say.
There is nothing worth arguing about.
Nothing left to meaningfully discuss.
Imminent and complete collapse of human fertility would now be rational response.
Posted 21 April 2018 - 12:10 AM
Exhibit A:
MarkerName CHR POS A1 A2 EAF Beta SE Pval rs9859556 3 49455986 T G 0.6905 0.029 0.001 3.98E-91
This is the first of nearly 3,000 genome-wide significant variants that are about to published in Nature Genetics.
The p-value of E-91 seems solid.
The beta of 0.029 (SD?) also seems solid.
Add up all the positive betas and you wind up with 18.805 SD.
A simply enormously important result.
It's anyone's guess what happens next: genetic enhancement of IQ perhaps?
Edited by mag1, 21 April 2018 - 12:40 AM.
Posted 21 April 2018 - 04:27 PM
Posted 21 April 2018 - 04:43 PM
The approaching genetic enhancement of human intelligence (and other traits) is of such overwhelming
importance that I think a coordinated effort to communicate this message to the entire forum should be
pursued. I have been surprised how often messages will not percolate through a forum. Most readers
stick with the threads that they know and do not stray very far from their small set of favorites. We need
to broadcast this message to the entire forum. It is possibly the most important development in
the history of humanity.
Increasing average human IQ by even 1 SD would have enormous implications for human achievement.
For example, it would enhance by a factor of 10 or more the ability to develop new and highly useful technologies
and invent cures. An increase of 2 or 3 SD would have an overwhelming effect. It would mean that 2% of those enhanced
would have an IQ that is now only present in 2 in 10 million. Enriching the extreme high end of the IQ distribution by 100,000
fold could possibly have a noticeable effect on human technological progress.
There is no longer even any point about arguing about this anymore. Enhancing IQ will
clearly have a massive effect on humanity and this is no longer something in the distant future. It is thought
that some nations might have already begun such an effort.
On April 30th members of the forum who recognized how extremely transformative IQ enhancement
will be for humanity, could post to one of the existing forum threads in the different categories. I do not want
to do that myself as it might be thought spammy. Yet, if a gruop of forum members were to do this it would
not be spam, but a collective confirmation about how our lives will be forever changed by upgrading to Homo 2.0.
Suggested title for these parallel threads?
Perhaps "Genetic enhancement of IQ now possible"
For the lead post, could post the ssgac website url with info about what was found, i.e. 3000 genome wide significant hits for
EA ( a moderately correlated trait to IQ).
Edited by mag1, 21 April 2018 - 04:59 PM.
Posted 21 April 2018 - 05:25 PM
Thank you for replying Painkillerrr!
Over the last 10 years, researchers into IQ have conducted genetic studies trying to find the variants associated with intelligence.
These GWAS studies continued to find no such variants year after year.
It was thought a hopeless cause.
However, a few years ago they actually found a few with very small effect sizes.
Other GWAS in the last year or so found some more, though it never seemed that important.
The latest study has found a massive number of variants associated with Educational Attainment (which is moderately correlated with intelligence). The study involved 1.1 million people, asked them how many years of school they had completed, and obtained a DNA sample from them. This study has found 3,000 variants related to Educational Attainment with genome-wide significance. Furthermore, current research methods should allow the entire set of variants related to intelligence to be unlocked perhaps with a sample size of perhaps 2-3 million. {This might find 100 SD or 1500 IQ points of intelligence. Such information has close to infinite economic value and it would now be highly irrational if such research were not conducted essentially immediately.}
If a person were to optimize their genome with the 3000 variants just found, then they would have 37.61 SD of EA.
In IQ terms, 37.61 SD is 564.15 IQ points.
People with 564.15 IQ are not expected any time soon.
However, using the information from the study to enhance the IQ of any parents-to-be's offspring by 1-2 SD
now seems highly plausible. The technology that has been suggested to achieve this is embryo selection.
Selecting 1 embryo in 10, it is currently thought, would be enough to enhance IQ by about 1 SD.
Perhaps more selection say, 1 in 100 would give up to 2 SD, though this might be out of the budget of most people.
There is no national group that currently has an IQ that is 1 SD over European averages.
Increasing average IQ by even 1-3 SD would dramatically change human civilization.
People who have IQs of 3 or more SD ( i.e., 145 IQ) produce much of the science and technology that makes our lives
better. If we were to increase the number of people with this level of IQ by one thousand or a million the implications
for humanity would be profound.
Interestingly, many of the variants found were common. Thus, enhancement would not apply to only a small selected group
of prospective parents, but should apply to all parents-to-be.
Edited by mag1, 21 April 2018 - 05:44 PM.
Posted 21 April 2018 - 08:14 PM
Anyone up for a mass posting on April 30th?
Please publicly express your interest!
The fact that humanity missed this opportunity for about a century makes this one of the greatest blunders in the history of humanity!
Anyone care to go back in a time machine and announce this result to the people in 1918 and see how the course of human history
would have changed? It would probably be very depressing to see how much better the 20th Century would have turned out
compared to the disaster that did occur. This is the biggest idea in the history of the world.
We should be honest and accept an Ig Nobel for this colossal failure. Not admitting how completely dumb who have been only compounds the dumbness: Dumbness^2. This is the month of April fools, and the last day of April would seem an appropriate date to celebrate this massive mistake. We can all take a bow and get on with making a world of genius.
Anyone in?
Edited by mag1, 21 April 2018 - 08:16 PM.
Posted 21 April 2018 - 08:38 PM
Thank you for your reply!
Intelligence is the master regulator of human behavior. A century of research has found that psychometric intelligence (g) is a unitary trait that controls the development of people and nations. Changing g would change the fundamental driver of human development. g is at the top of the psychometric pyramid.
If any poster could add constructive comments about what I might be missing here: please do!
From what I understand, those who are highly informed about this topic have not disputed any of the basic outline given above.
Edited by mag1, 21 April 2018 - 08:39 PM.
Posted 22 April 2018 - 03:57 PM
Experts on genetic enhancement of IQ have no doubt that a truly massive wave of social disruption is now approaching. There is no longer any reasonable basis for this to be debated. Such argumentation would simply reflect a basic lack of comprehension of what has already been achieved or soon will be.
It is now plainly self-apparent that very large IQ enhancement will occur among those interested. The exact details concerning economics and technologies are still somewhat obscure, though the basic scientific outline of large enhancement potential with profound implications for human civilization are no longer worthy of rebuttal.
Once this hits mainstream consciousness the turbo-chargers will kick this into gear. Up till this point, little if any investment has been
directed at advancing this science. The expert community have been aware of the underlying potential for possibly as long as 10 years,
though for whatever the idea never reached the investment community. To date the scale of the investment has been fairly modest.
The latest breakthrough results which has captivated the attention of the world is only on the scale of a hundred million dollars or two.
A rush of possibly a billion or two dollars will entirely unlock the genome of human intelligence.
Considering the overwhelmingly significant economic potential that raising IQ has for the world economy one would not think it will take
much time for the needed investment to be made. The economic potential that would result from a world of genius are profound. The modeling equation Income= 5.6 * 10^ (0.0344*IQ). Suggests that someone with an IQ of 200 would have an annual income of more than $40 million. So, basically, the US GDP should shift from $20 trillion to $20 quadrillion once the enhancement effect has matured. The discounted value of the entire future global economy would simply be large. If the investment to realize these returns are not made essentially immediately, then the basic sanity of humanity would certainly need to be questioned.
For the coming generation, the prime investment made in one's life might no longer be in a house, or possibly even an education but in acquiring the best possible genetic enhancement for one's children. The returns on such an investment would continue forever. Paying off one's IQ Enhancement mortgage could be the new life aspiration of the middle class.
It is thought that average IQ could be increased well beyond 200 perhaps over the medium- longish term. Of course when starting a technology wave, one almost always undershoots what actually happens. Increasing IQ by 1-2 SD now already seems doable. This would increase by a factor of 10-100 those of higher ability. This ability would then feedback to make the technology better. It is almost impossible to believe, but when you look at the magnification effect that happens with the Bell Curve the world could be filled with genius level ability.
This has of course substantial implications for the stated goal of this forum: "Advocacy & Research for Unlimited Lifespans". A million fold increase in those with extreme IQs would dramatically increase the possibility of Unlimited lifespans. The development of enhanced IQ offers the best chance that we have ever had to realize the dreams of members of our forum.
This has to be the biggest moment in the history of the universe.
Anyone who might disagree with this statement simply has no understanding of what has already been achieved.
Increasing global IQ by a mere 1 SD would dramatically change life on our planet.
However, the potential changes are clearly much larger than 1 SD.
The Genetic Singularity has without question now arrived.
Prepare for the maelstrom.
Edited by mag1, 22 April 2018 - 04:16 PM.
Posted 22 April 2018 - 04:47 PM
The backthread Genetic Singularity Event : CRISPR editing can be read for reference and to gain a better sense of how this emerging technology has been understood
over its development history. Admittedly I had started the thread concentrating more on the CRISPR side of things. CRISPR would have lead to the full potential of the 1500 IQ humaoid from being realized, though there are some problems with this approach. First, it is not entirely clear yet what the actual causal variants involved with the IQ enhancement effect are. In any given region of DNA there might be hundreds of possible candidates to be the causal variant and it could take some time to work out which one was the causal. Yet, going with an embryo selection approach, this no longer is relevant. One simply selects entire chromosomes, so there is nearly a guarantee that the causal will be included. This of course does limit the amount of enhancement that could be achieved.
Also there is the question of commercial rights. With CRISPR there was a patent fight and as it as high tech it could take years or probably more likely decades to actually reach the market. Embryo selection is already a widely practiced technology so IQ enhancement with this approach could begin at any time if it hasn't already.
https://www.longecit...crispr-editing/
Posted 22 April 2018 - 11:12 PM
I think my idea to have a synchronized posting across the main sub-threads of this forum makes a great deal of sense given the
truly massive significance of this latest development in moving towards a IQ enhanced world.
I do not think it would be appropriate for an individual poster to post in such a way, though it might be OK if other independent
posters were inspired to do so. Anyone up for a mass posting for next Monday?
Please post to this thread so we can discuss further!
There are a large number of topics that could be explored with this topic so let's get this conversation started!
The leading experts in this field have already indicated that they believe an enhanced world is now approaching.
This is no longer at the stage of if but when.
Edited by mag1, 22 April 2018 - 11:14 PM.
Posted 23 April 2018 - 01:02 AM
Thank you for responding.
I am very interested in what other people think about this.
What I found surprising is that when I was reading about this on another blog, a young person not much older than a teenager, has after considering the evidence decided that having children does not make sense for them at this time. They have also told other family members that with the coming genetic enhancement of IQ their unenhanced children would essentially have no viable future. This is one of those occasions where the truth might not be as important as what people believe the truth to be. Apparently, rational people who are told what the current research has found in IQ enhancement and estimate that this will help them enhance their children if they were to wait perhaps 5-10 years, now consider such a wait to be a rational choice. If this becomes the standard rationality in the community their might be expected to be large decline in fertility in many nations over the next year or two. Social consequences could soon begin to occur with this technology even if 1500 IQ people are not expected probably for a substantial period of time.
Yes, you are right I am super excited about this! What is fairly interesting is that this idea has been strangely absent from mainstream news. Doesn't that seem at least somewhat strange?
The leaders in psychometric researcher have been very aware that enhancement would happen at least 5 years ago and probably sooner. Even now when the story has already been pre-announced there is a very noticeable silence out there. Yet, no one with any degree of knowledge of this would deny that this is not now essentially inevitable. Consider what Scientific American, a leading Science Periodical had to say about enhancement of intelligence less than 2 years ago. It is amazing how silently this story has crept up on us.
https://blogs.scient...t-intelligence/
Someone with 1500 IQ would have an annual income of approximately $e+52 per year. I would not expect that someone with that level of IQ will be around over the short term. However, the type of profound changes that will happen with even more modest enhancement should not be lightly dismissed.
When you walk around any city it is hard not to notice that some people have very nice lifestyles and others with not so nice lifestyles.
The average IQ differences that one might find that explains the bulk of such differences in life outcomes probably might only amount to
10-20 IQ points. So, clearly extremely large IQ are not usually present in the current world, though noticeable difference in life
trajectories still occur with the small differences that exist today.
Take a look at the figure below. The Bell Curve to the right is shifted to the right by 5 SD. This would be what would happen if the new
average IQ were 175. What is interesting is that in this scenario, the almost all of the smartest people of today would then be considered amongst the least intelligent among the enhanced. Also notice that with such enhancement there would be some people with 8 SD or 220 IQ. This would be essentially beyond the current observed range of human intelligence. Enhancing human IQ by even 10-30 IQ would have profoundly disruptive effects on human civilization.
It is quite surprising that people appear to be so sanguine about this. From what is happening right now with this research I think that the description that I could offer is that this is an imminent global crisis. It is true that I have been saying that in the various threads over the last year or two, but now I really mean it!
Edited by mag1, 23 April 2018 - 01:10 AM.
Posted 24 April 2018 - 12:53 AM
Here's what has me excited now!
Below is the phased chromosome by chromosome EA polygenic score of some
individual, Their 1.1 polygenic score gives an estimated IQ of 130.
What I found so interesting today was considering how this person might
go about making a rationale mate choice given the below polygenic scores for
their chromosomes. The strategy that I thought of was to focus only on perhaps
2 chromosomes. This person's top ranked chromosomes by the highest positive
score on any strand of the chromosome are 2,4, and 5. We can call the best two best
ones 2 and 4. What I considered today was what if this person sought out a partner
who also had a strong showing on chromosomes 2 and 4?
Why would they want to do that? Why not just try and maximize the IQ of their potential offspring?
The problem with simple global PGS maximization is that it is a highly unstable strategy. One could roll
the genetic dice in one generation and hit the jackpot or one could hit a lemon. For
all of human history we have pretty much always had a whole lot of lemons and only a few jackpots.
Regression to the mean is inevitable; success cannot be maintained through time.
Even with embryo technology we would be left with a large amount of lemonade.
What if there were an approach that could essentially ensure that over a few generations that
there would only ever be jackpots? If one were to be lucky with an embryo and hit a global jackpot,
then one could take it. Yet, one would also be guaranteed of at least a solid standup double for every
generation. Some might prefer to take the standup double that would accumulate through time
instead of a temporary home run.
With the strategy I thought of regression to the mean would no longer be inevitable. In fact, a process of
organizing the genome could develop in which regression would never occur again.
Here's how it works. So, both parents to be have strong showing on chromosomes 2 and 4.
What they want to do is hit a jackpot of two strong chromosomes 2s and two strong chromosome 4s
in an embryo. They are not focused on maximizing the overall PGS, they are only interested in
a local maximum in which they have two strong strands for two chromosomes.
1 in 16 embryos should have the good combo. When they hit the double combo
they have achieved their objective. If they achieved this early they might want to choose the embryo
with the highest PGS of the double combo.
What has happened now? Their offspring will have strong PGS on both strands of Chromosomes 2 and 4.
It no longer matters what the genotype of their gamete is. We know that 100% of the gametes will now have
a strong chromosome 2 and 4! We have loaded the dice. Every time we flip the coin it will come up heads! Great!
When their child is ready to be a parent, their child could look out for a partner who also had some complementary
pattern of genomic organization. For example, perhaps a suitable partner would also have been designed to have
a strong double combo on chromosomes 2 and 4 and this partner also had a single strong strand on chromosomes 5
and 9 that matched with the child of the first couple. Once again they could go through a round of embryo selection
and this time they would have an offspring that now had 4 chromosomes that had strong matches on both strands.
Wow! At the second generation mark what we now have is that this child when they are ready to have children
will produce gametes all of which had strong PGS scores for chromosomes 2,4,5 and 9. We have really loaded the dice.
By using this approach it is a certainty that the PGS will become more and more organized through time and the scores would
at some point be assured to greatly increase. Yet, here again the focus is no longer on seeking a partner merely with the highest
possible PGS. What is wanted instead is seeking out a partner who has the best complementary DNA.
It is remarkable how effective this strategy would be in quickly moving towards an optimization. Notice that for this person
nearly their entire positive score is being driven by the positive scores on chromosomes 2,4,5, 9,13, and 16. There are only about
10 chromosomes in this example that are driving the PGS, so after 5 generations one would have designed a genome
with strong double strands on all 10 chromosomes.
This slow and steady approach would mean that over the longer haul one would be guaranteed of achieving a high PGS
and each generation would be building towards that goal without necessarily being rigidly focused on only a short term
maximization. Short term maximization is highly unstable. One might by chance hit an embryo with an IQ of 150, though the next generation would then regress to average. The great part of the designed genome approach would be that such regressions would no longer occur.
Variations could obviously be tried. For example, some might be interested in selecting against the negative PGS scores.
Perhaps Chromosomes 3 and 14.
0.853 0.251 0.084 0.026 0.254 -0.112 -0.084 -0.231 0.066 0.261 -1.56E-17 0.247 0.041 0.111 0.039 -0.016 -0.012 -0.14 0.128 -0.042 0.031 0.077 0.038 0.072 0.087 0.031 0.144 0.087 -0.132 -0.219 -0.022 0.014 0.105 0.096 0.01 -0.051 0.004 -0.028 0.088 0.055 -0.035 -0.025 -0.025 0.013 0.044 0.025
Edited by mag1, 24 April 2018 - 01:18 AM.
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