In terms of the COVID death statistics, are these delayed deaths actually recorded as caused by coronavirus?
I believe in the UK, a patient is recorded as dying of coronavirus if they have the symptoms and their death occurred within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. So that suggests that these delayed deaths which appear up to 140 days after leaving hospital may not be recorded as COVID deaths.
If they are not recorded as coronavirus deaths, then my simple calculation below shows that the number of deaths due to coronavirus will be more than double the official COVID death figures given in each country.
Here is my calculation:
Survival rate in hospitals are have improved since the first wave of the pandemic starting in March 2021. This is believed due to the discovery of better treatments.
In March, the survival rate once you entered hospital was 72%, but as time progressed, by June the survival rate improved to 93%. Ref: here.
So for calculation purposes, let's say that 1 in 10 who are hospitalized die.
In the UK, there are currently around 91,000 COIVD deaths in total. So presumably that means in the UK, around 10 x 91,000 = 910,000 people were hospitalized for COVID to date.
And if 1 in 8 hospitalized patients who recover from their acute infection later die within 140 days of leaving hospital, that means there are another 910,000 ÷ 8 = 114,000 delayed coronavirus deaths.
So in the UK, we to date there have been 91,000 deaths from COIVD that occurred within 28 days of a positive test, and another 114,000 delayed coronavirus deaths that occurred up to 140 days later.
Edited by Hip, 20 January 2021 - 03:24 PM.