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Safety concerns about the Large Hadron Collider


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#31 PWAIN

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Posted 09 May 2008 - 02:36 AM

Bottom line, there is a maximum density to black holes, because you can't squeeze protons and neutrons to be smaller than what they are. That density is roughly equal to that of atomic nuclei (obviously) and it means the mass of one cubic METER of the densest black hole is 10^18 kilograms.

Nefastor


Wow, call the physicists, we need a rewrite. Quarks and superstrings simply don't count it seems. Please tell me that you know that protons and neutrons are not elementary particles. I think you may be getting a bit confused with Bose Einstein condensate. When you pack superstrings, then you are talking small - really small.

So yeah, I think 1cm3 is entirely realistic.

#32 PWAIN

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Posted 09 May 2008 - 02:59 AM

Many will know this story but I would like to use it as an example of why I am wary of claims of safety. Some years back Marilyn vos Savant answered the "The Monty Hall problem" and was laughed at, criticised and mocked by just about everyone including top mathematicians. She was right of course and later proved it. The point here is that if Joe Average had said what she did, then people would still be laughing (wrongly) at Joe. People would feel more comfortable listening to the mathamaticians.

I am not prepared to RELY on what phycists have to say when it comes to SAFETY. If they knew everything, then the experiment would be entirely unnecessary. We may just find out the missing bit that we need to prove that this experiment will destroy the earth from this experiment.

Now that would be irony!

#33 freethinker

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Posted 09 May 2008 - 10:54 AM

CERN says that there is a 0% chance that a hypothetical mirco black hole will accrete the Earth before the Earth is destroyed anyways by the Sun 5 billion years from now.

However, even if they were stable [hypothetical micro blach holes], they would pose no threat. The main lines of the argument go as follows:
The size of their potential macroscopic effects is defined by the rate at which they can accrete matter. If they accrete very slowly, then they have no time to absorb significant parts of the Earth during the 5 billion years that we have left before the Sun explodes anyway, and life on Earth will be impossible (and this is not something we can do anything about!). On the other hand, if they accrete faster, then we can check whether they could have done damage elsewhere. The universe is filled with cosmic rays, high energy particles that are emitted during the catastrophic explosions of stars. We know this, since we observe them! It turns out that many of these cosmic rays have energies much larger than the energies that we'll be producing at the LHC. So IF the LHC can produce black holes, THEN these cosmic rays can do it as well. One can show, in particular, that several old neutron stars we see in the universe have been bombarded by a great number of such cosmic rays, and that therefore they should contain such black holes. If these black holes accrete matter fast enough to damage the Earth, they would do even more damage in a neutron star. This is because a neutron star is 10 thousand billion times (1 followed by 13 zeros) denser than the Earth, and black holes would accrete their mass much faster. This would lead to a collapse of a neutron star within an amount of time much shorter than the age we measure. We know neutron stars that are as old as a billion years, and they simply could not be there if stable black holes existed! A detailed account of the technical argument is work in preparation, which will be released soon. The conclusion is that there is a contradiction between the assumption that black holes are stable and that they can do harm. The contradiction is based on empirical evidence, so this is not just a theoretical speculation.


Quoted from: http://askanexpert.w...ckholes-en.html

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#34 nefastor

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Posted 09 May 2008 - 07:38 PM

Bottom line, there is a maximum density to black holes, because you can't squeeze protons and neutrons to be smaller than what they are. That density is roughly equal to that of atomic nuclei (obviously) and it means the mass of one cubic METER of the densest black hole is 10^18 kilograms.

Nefastor


Wow, call the physicists, we need a rewrite. Quarks and superstrings simply don't count it seems. Please tell me that you know that protons and neutrons are not elementary particles. I think you may be getting a bit confused with Bose Einstein condensate. When you pack superstrings, then you are talking small - really small.

So yeah, I think 1cm3 is entirely realistic.

The thing is, we don't actually know the exact way excessive gravity might break down matter. Take the example of a landslide : gravity brings down tons of rock, but the resulting pile of rock is no where near as dense as what we (humans) could achieve using machines to grind the stone to fine dust and compress it into tight blocks.

The fact that we can, in the lab, split an atom (for instance) does NOT automatically mean the same atom can be split naturally. Even if it turns out (as we know) that atoms can be split without human intervention, the requirements for that to happen outside of a lab have nothing in common with the requirements of a lab experiment.

Take neutron stars for instance : while their surface gravity is enormous, it is not sufficient to break subatomic particles the way a collider does. Also, singularities (black-holes proper) are supposed to form out of low density matter (i.e. gaseous remains of a dead star), whereas bodies containing heavier atoms (like iron) tend to become neutron stars. If Earth was a gas giant, I'd say an LHC MBH might turn it into a black hole in which case, yes, it might end-up as small as a cubic centimeter. But since Earth is made of heavier atoms, it's more likely we'd end-up a neutron star, in which case I stand by calculation of a 6 million cubic meters minimal final volume.

At any rate, that one cubic centimeter figure is still suspicious. Unless I'm mistaken, it assumes there are no "sub-sub-subatomic particles" that quarks and bosons might split into, or that we know what these are and how they behave. Fact is, it's only theory. For all we know, the LHC will help us find the Higgs Boson and then we'll see it breaks down further into Mickey Mouse particles with negative mass that would effectively blow-up any black-hole massive enough to produce them, same way squeezing Uranium very hard is a Bad Thing ™.

Oh, and I didn't even know superstrings could be "packed". Exactly how does that work ?

Nefastor

#35 freethinker

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Posted 11 May 2008 - 01:09 PM

Not to criticize, but these numbers don't look right. For starters, the atom-sized black-hole would have a mass of around 10^-15 kg, not 10^15 kg.


The Schwarzschild Radius = 2Gm/c^2 calculation gives us 1.5*10-12 meters for a black hole with the mass of 10^15 kg. Jay used this figure to demonstrate that a black hole even with the initial mass many orders of magnitude greater than the one that could be created by the LHC is still nothing to worry about, and therefore how ridiculous worrying about a black hole with the mass of a few atoms is.

To put things in perspective a black hole with the mass of the earth, or about 10^24kg, would have a diameter around 1 cm, and if the sun could somehow collapse into a black hole it would have a 3 km diameter

Also, I don't think it's meaningful to calculate the damage a black hole can do based solely on how much matter per second its surface area allows it to gobble. In case you haven't noticed, demolition explosives do a lot more damage than the dump trucks which carry out the debris. Black holes "in the wild" sort of rearrange matter around them into an accretion disk and THEN suck it down. If we had a black hole on Earth, it would probably break the planet into bits quickly, and then it really wouldn't matter how much time it would take for it to swallow the bits.


Ummmm...... there is no logic in the above paragraph that I can even respond too...

the only thing I can say is that everything you said has no bearing. We are talking about a black hole with the mass of a few atoms, which will therefore have no more gravitational force than.... the drum roll please... a few atoms. There would be no accretion disk. It would be (very) lucky to swallow the occasional proton.



#36 freethinker

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Posted 11 May 2008 - 01:11 PM

If you go to your google browser and type "LSAG CERN", you get, as the very first link, the following presentation:

http://lhc2008.web.c...uments/LSAG.pdf

This is a presentation by Michelangelo Mangano of the LSAG. You can read through the arguments presented right there.

They are paying attention to the absolute worst case scenarios that you all have posited, and have concluded that there is no credible or reasonable threat.

Summary of Reasons:
1) If black holes are produced at the LHC in any meaningful way, in order to be stable, then quantum mechanics is incorrect. This is aside from the blackbody radiation from Hawking radiation. Therefore, for a black hole to be stable, both Hawking radiation must be false, and quantum mechanics must be false. The odds of this are very very low.

2) There is absolutely no guarantee of black hole production at CERN to begin with.

3) Even IF black holes are stable (i.e. quantum mechanics are incorrect and Hawking radiation is false... already extraordinarily unlikely), there is a study ongoing to deal explicitly with this absolute worst case scenario to allay your fears. The heart of the study relies on proving that microscopic black holes will be captured by neutron stars, and given the assumption that the LHC will produce them at all, one can predict the number of these things that would be flying around our neighborhood of the universe. Since neutron stars are very very very dense, they will attract any doomsday black holes. The preliminary results from this study show that the time that a neutron star would take to attract such a doomsday black hole is about 100 million years, which is less than the lifetimes of actual neutron stars observed. They will be finalizing their calculation and publishing their results, however at this point it is completely unreasonable to expect that the LHC will result in any credible danger to anyone.

I hope that you send the $500 to Michelangelo and the rest of the LSAG, maybe they can get some nice champagne for our collaborations to drink when the first beams collide in August or September.


http://www.lhcconcer...r...p?f=2&t=129

#37 Gabled Arch

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Posted 11 May 2008 - 03:10 PM

If you go to your google browser and type "LSAG CERN", you get, as the very first link, the following presentation:

http://lhc2008.web.c...uments/LSAG.pdf

This is a presentation by Michelangelo Mangano of the LSAG. You can read through the arguments presented right there.

They are paying attention to the absolute worst case scenarios that you all have posited, and have concluded that there is no credible or reasonable threat.

Summary of Reasons:
1) If black holes are produced at the LHC in any meaningful way, in order to be stable, then quantum mechanics is incorrect. This is aside from the blackbody radiation from Hawking radiation. Therefore, for a black hole to be stable, both Hawking radiation must be false, and quantum mechanics must be false. The odds of this are very very low.

2) There is absolutely no guarantee of black hole production at CERN to begin with.

3) Even IF black holes are stable (i.e. quantum mechanics are incorrect and Hawking radiation is false... already extraordinarily unlikely), there is a study ongoing to deal explicitly with this absolute worst case scenario to allay your fears. The heart of the study relies on proving that microscopic black holes will be captured by neutron stars, and given the assumption that the LHC will produce them at all, one can predict the number of these things that would be flying around our neighborhood of the universe. Since neutron stars are very very very dense, they will attract any doomsday black holes. The preliminary results from this study show that the time that a neutron star would take to attract such a doomsday black hole is about 100 million years, which is less than the lifetimes of actual neutron stars observed. They will be finalizing their calculation and publishing their results, however at this point it is completely unreasonable to expect that the LHC will result in any credible danger to anyone.

I hope that you send the $500 to Michelangelo and the rest of the LSAG, maybe they can get some nice champagne for our collaborations to drink when the first beams collide in August or September.


http://www.lhcconcer...r...p?f=2&t=129


Interesting because I have written many times to a number of authorities and not a single reply to the possibility of creating a worm hole which initially would be extremely exothermic and accrete matter and energy at huge pace then fortunately slow down for stability due to pressure as the opening is much larger than a black hole. The two trillion degree fireball in 2005 also took 10,000 atoms which doesn't sound like much but it took them in 0.0000000000000000000000001 of a second. A fair bit quicker than the theoretical black hole.

This site list some man made and natural holes here. It is worth noting that two of these very deep sink holes have formed over the last year first in Guatemala and recently in the US in the US in Texas.

With orbit the similarity to a centrifuge and a significantly different mass object be it black hole or worm hole would at some point slowly drift out but after how much damage? With the photos I will admit the blue hole in Belize is the pretty one so indicates a natural phenomena but not at a rate of one a second.

There is a lot of science is not prepared for all eventualities. So not the end of the world probably but after how much damage?

#38 forever freedom

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Posted 13 May 2008 - 03:41 AM

Ah just bring it in! I'm tired of all the jabber around it, what's the problem with a few risks? That's life.



Seriously, as someone said a while back in this topic, if people are all getting nuts about the LHC, imagine all the harsh reactions when we get on the verge of creating human-level AI (and later smarter-than-human). All that arguing could delay the onset of it for years. Same happens with stem cells, therapeutic cloning, and many other stuff. And it's not like we got that much time to beat aging. Sometimes i just feel like chopping the head off every person causing retrocess in technology development. They are indirectly killing us, since time is short to find a cure for aging.

#39 JohnDoe1234

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Posted 13 May 2008 - 04:13 AM

Sometimes i just feel like chopping the head off every person causing retrocess in technology development.

Statements like this will only come to bite us in the ass later on.

#40 forever freedom

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Posted 13 May 2008 - 06:08 AM

Sometimes i just feel like chopping the head off every person causing retrocess in technology development.

Statements like this will only come to bite us in the ass later on.



I hope you do realize that i wasn't entirely serious. There would be way too many people to chop the head off, unfortunately :).

Edited by sam988, 13 May 2008 - 06:08 AM.


#41 JohnDoe1234

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Posted 13 May 2008 - 06:25 AM

I hope you do realize that i wasn't entirely serious. There would be way too many people to chop the head off, unfortunately shifty.jpg.

I know, I know you better than that... but things can always be taken out of context.

#42 forever freedom

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Posted 13 May 2008 - 06:50 AM

I hope you do realize that i wasn't entirely serious. There would be way too many people to chop the head off, unfortunately shifty.jpg.

I know, I know you better than that... but things can always be taken out of context.


Yea but who cares.

#43 VictorBjoerk

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Posted 17 May 2008 - 05:24 PM

So,Is this really something to worry about?

#44 freethinker

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Posted 18 May 2008 - 12:49 AM

So,Is this really something to worry about?


According to CERN (and the vast majority of particle physicists), there is absolutely nothing to worry about:
* http://askanexpert.w...ckholes-en.html
* http://lhc2008.web.c...uments/LSAG.pdf

A small number of citizens and scientists disagree:
* http://www.risk-eval...m.org/index.htm
* http://www.lhcconcerns.com/
* http://www.lhcdefense.org/

Decide for yourself.

P.S. CERN expects to publish an up-to-date peer-reviewed report demonstrating the operational safety of the LHC before the first particle collisions occur in August/September. ( http://lhc2008.web.c...uments/LSAG.pdf )

David

#45 Ebenonce

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Posted 11 February 2009 - 02:48 AM

For anyone keeping up with the LHC, it seems like first collisions are now to be October of 2009, with it's re-commissioning In September, Full details can be found now at Scientific Concerns, Formerly LHC Concerns




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