21 replies to this topic

[advancedatheist]

http://news.independ...sp?story=438726

Hot summer sparks global food crisis
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor
31 August 2003


This summer's heatwave has drastically cut harvests across Europe, plunging the world into an unprecedented food crisis, startling new official figures show.

Separate calculations by two leading institutions monitoring the global harvest show that the scorching weather has severely reduced European grain production, ensuring that the world will not produce enough to feed itself for the fourth year in succession, and plunging stocks to the lowest level on record. And experts predict that the damage to crops will be found to be even greater when the full cost of the heat is known.

[advancedatheist]

http://www.enn.com/d...00180ADDA9BC8E1

World Facing 4th Consecutive Grain Harvest Shortfall

From Earth Policy Institute
Wednesday, September 17, 2003

by Lester R. Brown

This year's world grain harvest is falling short of consumption by 93 million tons, dropping world grain stocks to the lowest level in 30 years. As rising temperatures and falling water tables hamstring farmers' efforts to expand production, prices of wheat and rice are turning upward.

For the first time, the grain harvest has fallen short of consumption four years in a row. In 2000, the shortfall was a modest 16 million tons; in 2001 it was 27 million tons; and in 2002 a record-smashing 96 million tons. In its September 11 crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that this year's shrunken harvest of only 1,818 million tons is falling short of estimated consumption of 1,911 million tons by a near-record 93 million tons. (See data http://www.earth-pol...te28_data.htm.)

Agricultural leaders are now looking to next year's crop with fingers crossed. If 2004 brings another large shortfall comparable to this year or last year, there could be chaos in world grain markets by this time next year as more than 100 grain-importing countries scramble for scarce exportable supplies.

[Bruce Klein]

hmm... man. I had no idea... all the more reason why we'll probably see more embracing of biotech i suppose... for the time being.. until we can produce nanofood in a box or just leap out of the food chain altogether via uploading.

[Thomas]

Biotech food already in existence would easily balance this (rather small) gap. If aunty Yurope was more flexible.

[80srich]

Note the CAP. Common agricultural policy which guarantees farmers can sell their food for at least a certain set price by the EU has led to food mountains and certainly increases the cost of food above the cost of production. We the UK have been trying to fight the policy and get it abolished but the french and german governments wont ever dare get rid of it as farmers represent very powerful groups in both their countries, enough so that if they even suggested it you can guarantee they wont be in office next election.

Sooner or later mankind had better get its act together.

[patrick]

Maybe the US Feds should consider reducing their 1,500,000,000 pound stockpile of powedered milk as well.

[80srich]

The irony of it is world hunger wouldnt be a problem now if we sorted out the food industry. We dont have to wait for future technology to give us the ability to feed the third world. makes me wonder if nano technology will really solve starvation, the problem seems more political based.

[Mind]

You are absolutely right 80srich. I have stated again and again that the world's food problems are nearly 100% political. Tariffs, subsidies, and tyrants prevent efficient distibution of food. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that many environmental groups continue to take productive food producing land out of the loop with endangered species lawsuits and biopreserve designations.

[Lazarus Long]

The linkage between GM, large agribusiness, and subsidies makes a complete lie out of our claims of being a supporter of emerging growth markets and "free markets". The one thing that small countries can do is build their agriculture but they are being overrun by our desire to buy out their competitiveness and force smaller farmers off their land.

[80srich]

You are absolutely right 80srich. I have stated again and again that the world's food problems are nearly 100% political. Tariffs, subsidies, and tyrants prevent efficient distibution of food. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that many environmental groups continue to take productive food producing land out of the loop with endangered species lawsuits and biopreserve designations.

It really does make u despair about the fundamental nature of mankind. I hate that we die, but i can understand why people would think we dont deserve immortality. We've become exceedingly efficient at being selfish and greedy and killing each other. I'd say the biggest threat to human kind will always be other humans.

Not sure if i can blame the environmentalists really. They know theres enough food to go round so making that land into farmland is not really a necesscity. Perhaps if extreme life extension takes off more death will begin to be abhorred, especially when the reasons are so stupid as lack of food. Count your lucky stars we live in the western world, wonder how many ethiopians think about extreme life extension...

[advancedatheist]

I think you're missing the point of the article. World grain production is lagging because of a possibly changing climate, not because of government policies.

For example, Ukraine, "the breadbasket of Europe," lost about 80 percent of its wheat harvest this year compared with last because of the recent heat wave:

http://www.gateway2r.../art_138104.php

I haven't come across any reason why such a catastrophic crop failure can't happen in North America.

[80srich]

There probably could at some point, the way capitalism works though America would always find food from somewhere. Next time vote for someone like ralph nader least its likely he would of signed the kyoto summit (The one about harmful emissions bush wouldnt sign because 'it would be bad for the american economy at this time') I think hes the only one who didnt sign it i think.

On the brighter side Britains wheat farming boomed this year as the temperatures started to reach optimum (We rarely see the sun, its almost a legend) though france faired alot worse.

[JonesGuy]

Once again, I say that it takes fourteen pounds of grain to raise one pound of beef to slaughter. If we could convince people to consume more primary food sources and supplement with "cheaper" animal sources (eggs, milk, etc.), there would be more food.

As well, we're using productive land to grow the grain for cows. If we used our non-productive land, we'd have more food resources. My example would be to raise rabbits and appropriate fruit in your back yard.

Finally, we need to encourage (ie. write your politician and paper) proper production of genetically-modified foods. Have you written your politician? I have.

Here's an audio link about GM foods.
Travels In The Genetically Modified Zone

* please note: I'm trying to find a reputable source for my 14:1 ratio. So far, it's just a commonly touted figure.

[80srich]

Written to my MEP about voting pro stem cell research
Like i say though, food isnt the problem, the social/political system is.

[advancedatheist]

According to the table published at the following link, which is current through 2003, total world grain production has been declining by about 8 million tons/year on average since 1997, or about 0.4% a year.

http://www.earth-pol...date27_data.htm

Since the 2003 harvest amounted to 1830 million tons, I'm willing to speculate in this public record that the grain harvest for 2004 will net 1822 million tons, plus or minus 5 million.

[advancedatheist]

http://www.iol.co.za...63C526&set_id=1

How will China feed its people?

November 18 2003 at 11:40AM



By Robert J Saiget

Beijing - Alarm bells are ringing again in China over the food security of its 1,3 billion people as grain prices rise, food reserves drop and the government scrambles to end five successive years of falling production.

China's grain output dipped from a record high of 512 million tons in 1998 to 457 million tons last year as the government tried to bring down stockpiles and free up farmland for more lucrative cash crops.

Output for this year is expected to come in between 440 and 450 million tons, giving China a grain shortfall of up to 45 million tons, said Liu Zhiren, a researcher at the Agricultural Economic Research Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture.


The shortfall is about equal to the annual grain production of Canada, one of the world's major grain exporters.

"Right now we should be okay, our grain production has fallen for four years but our reserves are still enough," Liu told AFP.

"If we don't raise our production in the coming years, then the reserves will fall to warning level by 2005."

Rising grain prices in October - the price of wheat was up over 30 percent - have reflected the shortage and while signalling better pay for farmers, it has hut China's urban poor as prices for flour, edible oil, meat and eggs have also risen.

Grain prices in China are already higher than prices on the global market.

As the world's largest grain producer, China's harvest largely reflects world grain trends, said Lester Brown, director of the Washington-based Earth Policy Institute.

Brown predicts a world grain shortfall of 93 million tons this year following consecutive drops in world grain production over the last four years.

"Agricultural leaders are now looking to next year's crop with fingers crossed," he said in a recent statement.

"If 2004 brings another large shortfall comparable to this year or last year, there could be chaos in world grain markets by this time next year as more than 100 grain-importing countries scramble for scarce exportable supplies."

Severe flooding or drought in any of the major grain exporting countries like the United States, Canada, France, Australia, Argentina or Thailand could send traditional grain importers such as Japan, South Korea and most Middle Eastern countries scrambling, he said.

Natural disasters in China or India could result in the world's two biggest grain producers seeking to fill the mouths of a third of the global population from world grain markets.

Brown's 1995 book, Who Will Feed China?, sent alarm bells ringing in the mid-1990s as Chinese researchers rushed to debunk his theory that a growing population and deteriorating pasture and croplands would eventually end China's grain self-sufficiency and impact world food security.

His new book, Plan B, published in September, reaffirms his earlier predictions but is better researched with growing evidence of global warming and water scarcity expected to seriously impact food security as the world population approaches some 8.5 billion by 2050.

Brown, who has long championed China's "one child" family planning policies, is expected to be in Beijing this week to meet Chinese leaders and publish the Chinese version of his new findings.

"Mr Brown is a friend of mine, but his scenarios are a bit pessimistic," Liu said.

"A lot of the problems that his theories reveal are already well known to Chinese scientists, we have already been working on these things."

China's population alone is expected to grow to 1,6 billion by 2030, increasing its grain needs to 640 million tons a year and far-outstripping its present production capacity, Liu said.

"Right now China still has the capacity to produce 500 million tons of grain a year," Liu said.

"As far as 2030 is concerned, we think we can take measures to meet demand. This issue has the attention of our highest leaders.

"China will not import more than 20 million tons of grain a year because that would be too disrupting to global markets."

[Mind]

The beauty of the market is that if food becomes more scarce, demand and prices will go up, and more supply will follow. The only people that will starve are those living in dictatorships or closed market systems, same as always.

[advancedatheist]

The beauty of the market is that if food becomes more scarce, demand and prices will go up, and more supply will follow. The only people that will starve are those living in dictatorships or closed market systems, same as always.

Not if the underlying environment fails to cooperate. World grain production reached a peak in 1997, and has been declining by about 0.4% a year on average through 2003. In other words, it's trending in the direction opposite of demand.

[advancedatheist]

http://www.earth-pol...es/Update31.htm

Under the North China Plain, which produces half of China's wheat and
a third of its corn, water tables are falling by 3 to 10 feet per
year. Along with rising temperatures and the loss of cropland to
non-farm uses, this trend is shrinking the Chinese grain harvest,
which has fallen in four of the past five years. To get an idea of the
magnitude, the harvest dropped by 66 million tons during that period,
an amount that exceeds the total annual grain harvest of Canada, one
of the world's leading grain exporters.

Thus far China has covered its growing grain shortfall by drawing down
its once-massive stocks. It can do this for perhaps one more year
before those stocks are depleted. Then it will have to turn to the
world market for major purchases. The odds are that within the next
few years the United States will be loading two or three ships per day
with grain destined for China. This long line of ships stretching
across the Pacific will function like a huge umbilical cord between
the two countries.

This isn't only a question of U.S.-China relations, but also one of
the relationship between the Earth's 6.3 billion people and its
natural resources, especially water. Food production is a
water-intensive process. Producing a ton of grain requires a thousand
tons of water, which helps explain why 70 percent of all water
diverted from rivers or pumped from underground goes for irrigation....

As a result, it seems likely that China will ultimately need to buy
30, 40 or 50 million tons of grain a year, and then it will have to
turn to the United States, which accounts for nearly half of the
world's grain exports. Imports on this unprecedented scale will create
a fascinating geopolitical situation: China, with 1.3 billion
consumers and foreign exchange reserves of $384 billion—enough to buy
the entire U.S. grain harvest eight times over—will suddenly be
competing with American consumers for U.S. grain, in all likelihood
driving up food prices.

[faith_machine]

This article is very interesting to me. I lived in mainland China recently for two years. 1999 - 2002. If anyone is interested in a chat involving this topic, please let me know. I can only say that I saw massive amounts of food when I was in China. In Guangzhou, a major city, they kill 6 million chickens a day just to eat dinner! No-one is short of food. In fact, the chinese love food more than any other culture I know!

[outlawpoet]

It sounds like they need irrigation technology. I know that propagation of better practices, like drip irrigation has been slow, especially in China, but such conservation could mitigate such water troubles and help slow the drop of the water table. It's done wonders for Israel.

[advancedatheist]

From:

http://www.forbes.co...rtr1207802.html

COMMODITIES-Grains soar as supplies fall, oil firm
Reuters, 01.12.04, 5:27 PM ET


CHICAGO (Reuters) - Grain prices soared on Monday after the U.S. Agriculture Department jolted the world market by shrinking its estimates of last year's U.S. crops and its projections for 2004 world grain stockpiles.

In other commodity markets, crude oil prices traded at the highest level since the Iraq war. And a bounce in the weak U.S. dollar prompted some profit taking in gold and copper, but silver bucked that trend to reach a new 6-1/2 year high.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, prices for corn, wheat and soybeans soared from the opening bell in reaction to surprising reports issued by the USDA.

"Needless to say, about everything was a surprise, and it was a bullish report," said Joe Victor, manager of marketing for Allendale Inc. "The world stocks jump out at us, especially the 7-million-ton reduction in world corn stocks."

USDA said there was not as much corn produced in the United States during 2003 as it had previously estimated, while demand stayed strong. This resulted in a cut in USDA's projection for world corn stocks this year to 67.5 million metric tons, from 74.3 million forecast in December and 130 million two years ago.

CBOT March corn closed 14-1/2 cents higher at $2.65-1/2 a bushel, the highest close since September, 2002.

"The report tells me that if you look at stocks-to-use ... there should be $2.75 on March corn," said Dale Gustafson, grain market analyst for Citigroup.

"We continue to see tighter stocks worldwide and in the United States," said Doane Agricultural Services President Dick Loewy. "World corn stocks are the lowest in 25 years."

World wheat stocks were trimmed about 700,000 tons from last month at 127.66 million, compared with 201 million two years ago. But the USDA shocked traders by also trimming estimated seedings of winter wheat last fall by U.S. farmers.

USDA put winter wheat seedings at only 43.464 million acres, below the average analyst estimate of 45.637 million.

"The noose continues to tighten and wheat prices certainly could move back over $4.00 per bushel this year and we certainly have put the lows in on corn," Loewy said.

CBOT March wheat closed 13-3/4 cents a bushel higher at $3.99-1/4, hovering just below 14-month highs.

Also refer to:

Another huge decline in world cereal stocks foreseen in 2004

and,

WORLD FACING FOURTH CONSECUTIVE GRAIN HARVEST SHORTFALL .