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IBM Fellow: Moore's Law defunct


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33 replies to this topic

#31 babcock

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Posted 14 January 2010 - 08:34 PM

Quantum Computing?

Quantum Computer Calculates Exact Energy of Molecular Hydrogen

ScienceDaily (Jan. 14, 2010) — In an important first for a promising new technology, scientists have used a quantum computer to calculate the precise energy of molecular hydrogen. This groundbreaking approach to molecular simulations could have profound implications not just for quantum chemistry, but also for a range of fields from cryptography to materials science.


http://www.scienceda...00110151331.htm

#32 Cameron

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 01:21 AM

I'm surprised at this thread. You guys aren't mentioning the obvious: Moore's law is just one of many paradigms. It's a bit silly to think that our chips will continue to utilize only 2 dimensions.

As Mr. Kurzweil has repeatedly said - Moore's law will run out of steam after we have established 3 dimensional molecular circuits.

/thread


The problems with 3d circuits are added manufacturing complexity and heat dissipation. While those can probably be overcome, that still may not allow moore's law like constant doubling of transistors within short periods of time. Once we can't make things any smaller, constant doubling of transistors will necessarily result in ever larger chips[which will be ever harder to manufacture and will require ever more energy.]. Performance can probably continue to increase regardless by finding alternate small structures[atoms|molecules|etc] that can perform logic that would require say X number of transistors to implement, and using such instead of X transistors.

Making ever larger chips is unlikely to be viable manufacturing-wise in a cost-effective manner without some form of advanced molecular machinery[say synthetic bio or nanotech] to allow for precise and cheap manufacturing almost independent of size|complexity.

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#33 robomoon

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 06:53 PM

So the end of exponential minimization for integrated circuits is coming. Oh holy moly, I nearly knew it from the beginning, cause any processor in any of those laptops I used never got smaller over the years, only my budget to buy them. Hope that some smart chaps in China can produce some off-chip optical signaling for my disk interface before it's becoming on-chip at IBM.

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#34 Medical Time Travel

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Posted 16 January 2010 - 03:57 AM

For the last time I have been very fascinated by the DARPA IPTO website:

http://www.darpa.mil/ipto/




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