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Worst Case Scenario


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#1 Annan

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Posted 19 December 2009 - 06:31 PM


Me and a friend were talking recently about how food stores only hold a few days food supply. When oil runs out people could starve because most food needs to be transported to where you live. This would lead to riots, etc. Electric and water supply would eventually stop. Modern houses aren't meant to be lived in without heating and don't have fireplaces. This probably wouldn't happen overnight (er... "day after tomorrow" :)) but can the governments respond fast enough? (they should really be responding now).

If there was a major epidemic the transportation could also break down and the same thing could happen. Climate change could create a lot more ways for general system break down to occur as well.

My friend has a vegatable garden, private water supply and is getting a hydro setup for off grid electric. I'm sure there are smart people out there doing the same thing.

I have two questions.

Do you think something like this will happen?

Are there any countries (governments/communities) that are preparing for things like this? And even if they aren't, which countries would come out on top?

#2 forever freedom

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Posted 19 December 2009 - 08:04 PM

As you said, oil supply wouldn't end overnight, in fact, we keep finding new oil resources. Petrobras, the major oil company from Brazil, has been finding many new oil reserves.

By the time oil ends, in many decades, we should already have mastered other means to get energy, like solar energy technology.


But keeping supplies for weeks at home is wise. Natural catastrophes are indeed a real threat. Nothing like the 2012 nonsense, though..

#3 lunarsolarpower

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Posted 19 December 2009 - 08:20 PM

Did you just read Emergency or something?

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#4 Annan

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Posted 20 December 2009 - 04:46 PM

Did you just read Emergency or something?


No, but that looks like an awesome book. Thanks for pointing it out, I'm definitely going to read it :)

I don't believe anything about what people say about 2012. However if enough people believe that something will happen then it could be a self fulfilling prophecy. So you can add "2012 mass hysteria" on to possible causes of anarchy :)

Good to hear that oil running out quickly isn't such a big fear.

Edited by Annan, 20 December 2009 - 04:47 PM.


#5 Elus

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Posted 20 December 2009 - 10:28 PM

Did you just read Emergency or something?


No, but that looks like an awesome book. Thanks for pointing it out, I'm definitely going to read it :)

I don't believe anything about what people say about 2012. However if enough people believe that something will happen then it could be a self fulfilling prophecy. So you can add "2012 mass hysteria" on to possible causes of anarchy :)

Good to hear that oil running out quickly isn't such a big fear.


I've always dreamed of having a home which generates its own power and utilizes nanoscale assembly to construct food and provide me with water. I will be completely independent from the rest of the world, and that kind of thought is extremely exciting to me! Also, for some reason, whenever I imagine this 'ultra-advanced' home, I always imagine it as being underwater. Living under water would be so cool :p

Posted Image

Edited by Elus Efelier, 20 December 2009 - 10:29 PM.


#6 theseed

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Posted 22 July 2012 - 11:38 AM

These are NOT the worst case scenarios; the WORST case scenario has already happened: you have chosen to BELIEVE in the (mortal/slave) culture into which you were born.
If you decided [it's about choice: do you subscribe to the victim attitude or do you choose to use your brain] to check the ASSUMPTIONS upon which your culture bases it's assumptions... you'd do your own research and thinking and have a chance at surviving where the culture dies.
The worst case scenario is that mankind gets thrown back into a stone age AGAIN. A few thousand years ago we were all running around ignorant of what it takes to make anything though mankind's genes should obviously go back HUNDREDS of thousands if not millions of years. Creationism is contrary to immortality: if you believe creationism, you're doomed to a short existence. It is creationism, however, that suggests mankind popped into existence a few thousand years ago and it is this BELIEF that underlies the reasoning that our civilization is young and there are no connections to ages going back 100,000 - 1,000,000 years or more.
If you think 2012 and the 13,000-year cycle of cosmological destruction is something you can choose not to BELIEVE in, the worst-case scenario has already happened and it took place in your head or in your own self-fulfilling prophecy choices: only things the culture accepts can be believed in, therefore i follow a (kind of) religion that doesn't allow me to consider science, logic, and sense outside the mainstream. If you believe that 2012 should never be considered, it's your own self-fulfilling prophecy that dooms you to any outcome in which it exists anyway.

#7 Layberinthius

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Posted 23 August 2013 - 09:46 AM

Do I think something like this will happen? yes.

Am I doing something about it? yes.

I'm doing exactly what your friend is doing, hydroponics but with a lower budget in mind, using skylights instead of lamps (except for flourescent).

If you use this method (skylights) then dont be silly and let light leak from any interior lights back up through the skylight for people to see through the top.

I'm thinking of a situation where its post-apocalyptia and people walk by from time to time that you dont necesserially want seeing that you have electricity and artificial lighting. So cover it up with black paper if you have lights on at night.

I think this forum needs a farming and hydroponics section, controlling your own food supply is quite possibly the ultimate in self control and nutrition yet it has been overlooked.

Essential Reads:
http://www.longecity...t/page__st__150

http://www.longecity...es/#entry606223

http://www.longecity...ive-a-disaster/

http://www.longecity...post__p__605871

http://www.longecity...post__p__605832

http://www.longecity...lapse-disorder/

Edited by Layberinthius, 23 August 2013 - 09:56 AM.


#8 lemonhead

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 03:06 PM

Layberinthius,

I recommend reading The Hydroponic Hothouse (older edition titled The Survival Greenhouse). Another good book about greenhouse culture is The Greenhouse Gardener's Companion.

Based on my readings (and limited experience growing seedlings indoors), you will not get enough light from skylights/ fluorescents for food production.

#9 Layberinthius

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:04 AM

Thank you for the book recommendations, I agree with the fluorescent comment, however there are many different kinds of fluros available and you can always up the wattage, but I am interested in an indoors grow setup which would be suitable only for a solar panel installation.

Why indoors? No bugs or dogs or pests! You ever seen a dog go up against a watermelon? Its like Predator or Aliens. I've only just recently had to combat against Leafminers, last week it was whiteflies, it never ends with bugs, and I want to get as far away from them as possible. Its a matter of life or death when it comes to insects especially when you have no insecticide or pesticide left.

Not to mention that potting mix contain an unlimited number of pests (with wings) and mushroom spores, what else do they contain? Frankly I would hate to find out in a survival situation. I'll give you an example, its 2030 and you badly need new soil for this years crops, you have to go over to another property and cultivate soil because you need to turn over soil twice a year because the old soil runs out of nutrients. You end up picking up a whole heap of bugs by mistake which have laid eggs in the soil, which when introduced into your food crops eat everything in sight within 3 days, faster than you can possibly clear them out. I don't want that to happen!

There is also no room here for a greenhouse, and I do have background in running freshwater aquariums, so its a perfect match imho.

I hope to someday read the one straw revolution, and see if there is a method of living 'with' the pests, ie, planting trees which promote the growth of higher predators, for example something which eats moths or fruit flies.

But for now I will have to do with my sticky plastic pest control and squashing them with my fingers and keeping them indoors where THEY cannot get to them.

I've had decent results from raising seedlings with just a single 36 watt NEC Triphosphor T12 tube but this wouldnt be intense enough for growing a full sized plant, maybe it would if it was left on for 24 hours a day.

I've done some back-of-the-mind calculations last night in bed and have concluded that the best method for growing indoors is with:

An aquaponics setup.
A metal halide lamp of 250 watts for a peak-grow period being run at 5 hours per day.
An 18 hour slow-growth period using a single 36 watt NEC Tri-phosphor tube.

I'm mainly interested in the extreme long life expectancy of a fluro tube, its right up there with high powered LED's.
The T12 Tri-phosphor tube I'm using now has a 12,000 hour life expectancy, 25,000 hours for the T8's and even longer, 50,000 hours for the T5's.

I'm using a 4 foot fluorescent lamp, of 36 watts in capacity, either an older T12 or T8 lamp, and I havent got a grow tent yet but am going to be getting a large one, large enough to accommodate a large amount of trays and 4 foot fluro lamps.

So a 24 hour period would be cut up in this manner:
06:00 (Morning) Fluro light comes on.
08:00 Metal Halide lamp comes on.
(Both lamps are running during this period)
13:00 Metal Halide lamp turns off.
(Fluro still running.)
00:00 (Midnight) Fluro lamp turns off to give the plants a 6 hour dark period.

So the fluro is running for 18 hours per day, meanwhile the Metal Halide globe is run for 5 hours per day.

This hopefully enables the best of both worlds, having both the peak-grow period of a metal halide lamp combined with the slow-growth period of a single fluro tube, inside of a grow tent.

I'll figure it out for you:
40 watts x 24 hours = 960 watt-hours
250 watts x 5 hours = 1,250 watt-hours

Total: 2210 watt-hours

2210 wh is just within the capacity of a 600 watt solar panel system to accommodate.

This enables you to use the most effective fluro grow tubes and metal halide, to grow a plant much faster than you would be able to outdoors, on a solar power system. without the use of sunlights.

And most importantly, without insects eating half of your crop, or strangers eating the other half.

Edited by Layberinthius, 13 September 2013 - 07:45 AM.


#10 Layberinthius

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:53 AM

Its either this method as I've described above, OR using a lot more fluroescent lights, so the light is evenly spread over a large area, so therefore more crops can be grown at the same time:

If you have problems growing under fluro you've either been using the wrong tube or you havent been growing with a long enough growth period, or enough wattage.

Edited by Layberinthius, 13 September 2013 - 08:51 AM.


#11 lemonhead

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 03:32 PM

Yeah, I get the whole not wanting to share with bugs or other critters thing. This year I only tried to grow a couple of pots of bell peppers and tomatoes. I think I got maybe one or two peppers. Many of my tomatoes were eaten by squirrels or pecked into by birds (even though I set out a bird bath for them to drink from).

Aquaponics sounds like a good idea, but seems like it might be quite difficult to maintain. The Hydroponic Hothouse author first raised chickens in his green house to supply extra CO2 and generate waste to turn into nutrient solution (as well as supply eggs/meat), but said he found it too much effort and decided just to stockpile store-bought nutrient concentrate. He switched to raising rabbits for extra CO2 and food.

#12 Layberinthius

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 01:57 PM

I get that you get that we dont want to share with bugs or critters :P

I've actually had great results with hydroponics in the past, so I know it works and works great producing huge yields. But its costly to run, the cost of electricity is insanely high, which is why I am experimenting with the lowest cost but the brightest lights available which are /also/ extremely reliable.

At the moment I've found a GU10 LED light which is 40% brighter than a standard 50 watt halogen globe but draws only 10 watts per light, the color temperature is crap for vegetative growth but the blue is still there even though its 3000k (kelvin), I'm going to try and use 4x of these suckers, they are highly directional being 38 degrees each and are so bright that staring at just one of them will hurt your eyes. Hopefully this will provide me with the high/fast yield & low running costs that I need. The lights are made up of 4x 3 watt LED's attached to a large heatsink, so all-up its 16x 3 watt LED's that I will be running.

Its not going to be as reliable as a F10-F12 Fluorescent light setup, but Fluro has been knocked out anyway due to apparently becoming obsolete (I will never understand the fascination that our consumerist culture has with making things obsolete). And I'm not going to get swept up into the craze of the wonderful F5 or F8 globes, the main reason being is that I dont trust the build quality of the cheap chinese Electronic ballasts, frankly I've seen more 50 year old magnetic ballasts than I care to mention get thrown out in favour of the newer electronic ballasts and all I can think of is just how insane and crazy we all are for doing it, we are throwing out a tried and true technology like a magnetic ballast for the sake of 1 or 2 watts in energy efficiency improvement per light!

As for the tomatoes getting eaten by birds, I'm sure you are aware that there are more effective things you can do but I will say them anyway, you can buy a wire mesh which will block them off from the tomatoes until they are ripen enough to pick, but let the light and rain through. As for soil, make sure its got the nutrients it needs. Its all about following the instructions on the packet, and then using half of what it recommends until you are comfortable with using the full recommended dose (expert mode is using the full recommended amount), and then fertilizing whenever it says to do so.

I honestly havent had great results with fish emulsion, which is why I am personally using individual fertilizers, I havent used these before but I am learning how to use them:
(N)Nitrogen. (Sold as: Sulphate of Ammonia)
(P)Phosphate. (Sold as: Super Phosphate)
(K)Potassium. (Sold as: Sulphate of Potash)

And then once I've mastered the art of growing my own food using man-made fertilizers I will move onto compensating their use with my own home brew stuff like worm pee or compost, its a slow process but it must be done inorder to learn how everything works properly, so that when your life depends upon it you know what you are doing!

Aquaponics is actually fairly low maintenance from what I've learnt, you just need to make sure that the fish have water, heat, air (from an air stone), and dont do anything too drastic to the pH of the water, and dont let Nitrate buildup to lethal levels, ontop of that you should clean the filter in the tank (if you use one in an Aquaponics system) periodically, and then make sure that you arent over feeding the fish (common mistake is every day or every 2-3 days, truth is a fish can live for up to a week depending upon the species without food.) After owning a freshwater aquarium for a few years and buying the test equipment necessary to know whats going on, I am confident in undertaking Aquaponics, so yes there is method to the madness and if you are willing you should start out by taking care of a freshwater aquarium of fish first.

Aside from that its all about making sure that you have enough plants to soak up the nutrients which the fish and the bacteria provide.

I'm not sure what I would do about the heat issue, it would be wise if this system's pump were to be running from a solar power system that some part of the conduit is insulated, inorder to both keep heat out and keep heat in during winter. Ontop of that, to make sure that the place where the fish are kept is inside an insulated area. If you live in an area where it snows however you would need to take more energy wasting methods.

My ideal setup:
Ideally it would use no solar electricity, and use sunlight only, ideally the entire system would be a simple dam with gravity fed pipes made from bamboo feeding a large collection of pipes also made from bamboo, with which all of your plants are then covered and protected from the elements and bugs inside of a greenhouse. (bamboo is renewable, so if you break a pipe you can simply replace it, PVC pipe breaks down in the sunlight and goes brittle and needs renewing every 10-20 years, you can paint it with a UV Stable paint tho to extend its life.)

And as for fertilizing, Ideally I would have multiple worm farms setup, the worms can then be fed to the fish along with other sources of nutrients, and the fish then fertilize the water borne bacteria which then feeds the plants.

I havent fully worked it all out yet but I am going to try and do so, havent got a natural source for Phosphor yet.

And apparently neither has the planet:

In 2007, at the current rate of consumption, the supply of phosphorus was estimated to run out in 345 years.[4] However, some scientists now believe that a "peak phosphorus" will occur in 30 years and that at "current rates, reserves will be depleted in the next 50 to 100 years."


https://en.wikipedia...ence_and_mining

Its amazing just how well we've managed to work ourselves into a corner by being completely dependent upon electrical methods of transferring energy or information from one place to another. If it were up to me the entire system would be solar powered and not electric, electricity is a nuisance, it requires highly engineered, precisely designed components all of which are vulnerable to solar flares, lightning strikes, corrosion, water ingress, bugs/ants/nesting wasps/cockroaches, and not to mention OLD AGE, the insulation will become brittle within 20-30 years (for modern non-rubber based insulation), the corrosion will build up, wear and tear will occur on plastic components like switches and plugs/sockets, etc.

So yeah, a solar power system as an entirety would most likely last no more than 10-25 years (if your lucky), frankly I would prefer to not have any batteries at all and instead simply use capacitors inorder to store a small amount of energy, and act as a buffer between the solar panel charge controller and your load. If you do this make sure to fuse BOTH the input and the output to your capacitor pack!.

With this system you could then operate heavy loads during the daytime only and run light loads (like a few LED lights) from the archaic and questionably reliable deep cycle lead acid batteries. I think that both the daytime load channel (connected to a capacitor) must be disconnected and not allow to come in contact with a nighttime load channel, connecting a battery to a capacitor in any way shape or form is a very dangerous thing to do and it shoudnt be attempted!

I would think that there would need to be two completely seperate solar power systems setup, one with large 200 watt solar panels (for the daytime load channel, the one with capacitors instead of batteries) and a seperate system, one with say a single 50 watt solar panel for the low power LED light night time loads, which use deep cycle batteries.

With this setup you could theoretically run a solar powered system for as long as the solar panels survive out in the elements, 25 years or longer if they are decently built panels.

To be honest I prefer and would bet my life on the reliability of a well built Sanyo NiCD battery pack being far better than that of a modern deep cycle battery.

NiCD's are more energy dense aswell and can tolerate a bit more abuse than a deep cycle system can. The ONLY thing that is their downfall is that the larger cell packs are no longer manufactured for the consumer market, it used to be back in the 40s that HUGE NiCD battery packs were built for everything from car batteries to electric tram systems, the only source for them now are from X-Ray machines.

Edited by Layberinthius, 16 September 2013 - 02:52 PM.


#13 Layberinthius

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 04:45 AM

At the moment I've found a GU10 LED light which is 40% brighter than a standard 50 watt halogen globe but draws only 10 watts per light, the color temperature is crap for vegetative growth but the blue is still there even though its 3000k (kelvin), I'm going to try and use 4x of these suckers, they are highly directional being 38 degrees each and are so bright that staring at just one of them will hurt your eyes. Hopefully this will provide me with the high/fast yield & low running costs that I need. The lights are made up of 4x 3 watt LED's attached to a large heatsink, so all-up its 16x 3 watt LED's that I will be running.


Scratch that. I cannot find a light fixture which will take the 4x 40% brighter LED GU10 globes.

I'm going to just buy a 130w CFL 6400k grow light setup with a reflector and stop wasting money on home lighting.

When it boils down to it, there is roughly 550 lumens per globe, or 2,200 lumens of output for the 4x LED lights. and there is 8,000 lumens of output for the 130 watt CFL light. The CFL is going to grow faster irreguardless.

If I want to save on electricity, I could look into getting a dimmable CFL globe which will allow me to cut the cost of running it in half. Or use multiple ordinary light sockets combined with Phillips Tornado globes, which are 20 watts each.

I dont like the idea of using a CFL globe as the ballasts can be fairly unreliable and vent toxic chemicals into the air and straight onto your fruits and vegetables, but seeing as their expected lifetime is only 10,000 hours and society is still with us at the moment I can just buy spares.

130 watts is just about right for a serious solar panel setup aswell, but you would be wise to run it during the daytime and if its cloudy turn it off, so as to put the least amount of strain possible on the battery bank.

I would get a 250 watt MH setup, however 250 watts is 2x more power than what I want to be using, 130 watts is just about right. I'm afterall only growing veggies, not weed! :D

Edited by Layberinthius, 17 September 2013 - 04:59 AM.


#14 lemonhead

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 01:12 PM

It seems like you've put a lot of thought/effort into this project. Perhaps when you've got it all up and running the way you want you can post details of the set up (including plant varieties) and expected yields. Keep up the good work.

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#15 Layberinthius

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:42 AM

Thanks, If I were you I would buy a survival seed bank and coco peat and a grow light and get busy adding A & B solutions to a hydroponic setup, just be sure to flush the old water out once you've done with the A solution before you add the B solution or your plants will die. And use an airstone and airpump. And keep the ventilation up too, just use a floorstanding oscillating fan set on low for 1-2 hours per day, not all day/night, start doing this when the plants are a foot or two high. And for your seeds, when they are just starting out only use a fluro light, nothing too bright or else they will burn. There you now know all that I know.

There are kits available aswell which have the whole kit and caboodle ready.

You can grow almost anything with just a generic hardware store hydroponic solution as long as you follow the directions.

Start there. then get and operate a tropical aquarium. Then combine the two after reading a bit about aquaponics.

I'm a paranoid type anyway, who knows who will read this and make it a game to find out where I live, then make me their destination for when the shit hits the fan.

I might write down notes here if I get the time or make another thread.

Edited by Layberinthius, 18 September 2013 - 08:13 AM.





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