121 replies to this topic

[DukeNukem]

>>> I should also point out that, if we follow a last minute strategy, then we won't know how high the bidding might go. <<<

Jay, we'll know what the bidding level is regardless of whether we bid now or later. In fact, it's a poor bidding tactic to be the top bid holder during the final minutes of bidding. Trust me, I'm a bidding expert, having used eBay under several names since 1998, and having spent over $250,000 on eBay. If you're the top bidder in the final minute, you're a sitting duck for a sniper to beat you before you can react. It's better to be the sniper than the duck.

Bidding early ONLY raises the final bid price. It's 100% foolish to bid early, unless your goal is to raise the final price, because there are always other knuckleheads who bid early too, falsely thinking there's an advantage to doing so. (But, then again, bidding early helps the MPrize, so maybe forcing a premature bidding war is for the good of everyone. If that's the goal, by all means keep bidding when someone else tops us.)

I predicted before this auction started that the final price would be the low 4-figures, and I think that's still going be true, meaning a bid around $2500 - $3000 will win. The wildcard is a wealthy person coming out of the woodwork, and that'll most like happen in the final few hours -- wealthy people are generally smart enough not to play their hand early and create a bidding war.

If I were doing the bidding, I'd wait until the final 30 seconds and I'd place a bid equal to the maximum bid the group has agreed to do, and if it wins then the entire bid may not be required. For example, if the max group bid is $3100, I'd place that within the final 30 secs., and perhaps it wins with $2950.

There should be no reason to hold back on that final sniper bid.

[jaydfox]

What happens if Bruce's internet access flakes out in the final few minutes? Honest question, has this ever affected anyone here, excessive lag or downright loss of connectivity?

[eternaltraveler]

What happens if Bruce's internet access flakes out in the final few minutes? Honest question, has this ever affected anyone here, excessive lag or downright loss of connectivity?

Unless we are willing to bid up to a huge level that no one would dare snipe away from us, really the only way to win ebay auctions is to be the sniper at the end.

[eternaltraveler]

I would not be surprised at all if the auction stayed at the current level (a little over 1000) untill three minutes before the auction ended, and then shot up by a factor of 5 or more.

[Bruce Klein]

What happens if Bruce's internet access flakes out in the final few minutes? Honest question, has this ever affected anyone here, excessive lag or downright loss of connectivity?

Using cable, I've had no downtime this year.

[JMorgan]

(Dukenukem) Bidding early ONLY raises the final bid price.  It's 100% foolish to bid early, unless your goal is to raise the final price, because there are always other knuckleheads who bid early too, falsely thinking there's an advantage to doing so.

Yes! This is what I've been trying to say. Bidding now, while fine for the MPrize, only shoots us in the foot. When we're worried about getting enough money to do the bidding in the first place, it's foolish to keep bidding now and make it more expensive.

The priority here (for me) is to meet Ray, and hopefully get him to the conference. If you want to donate to the MPrize, do so later.

A friend of mine who buys on ebay all the time always waits until the last 30 seconds to enter a bid, then literally sits there hitting F5 (Refresh) every few seconds to make sure he wins.

[Bruce Klein]

Yes, Malchiah... as a regular user of Ebay, I've had the pleasure of sniping a number of items in the past.

[jaydfox]

Current bid is $1,036. The person who placed the bid has a -1 rating, meaning somebody claims he wouldn't reply to emails and didn't pay up.

However, don't let this fool you. I think his bid is legit. Jim Gibbons donated $1,000 to the MPrize last year, in a single donation, as far as I can tell. And he's a member of the 300, and members of the 300 who win the bid would be allowed to apply their bid towards their 300 commitment. So he certainly supports the prize, and he certainly has the means to write thousand-dollar checks, and bidding a thousand (or a few thousand) dollars would allow him to fulfill a portion of his $25,000 commitment to the 300.

Hence, I think we should take his bid very seriously. But like many have suggested, don't respond. But be aware that he's there, and that he might be willing to go as high as, or higher than, $2,000. So far, I don't think we can beat that, can we Bruce?

Edit: added "a portion of"

[JMorgan]

We'll have to wait and see where the bidding is going. If it looks winnable, I'll up the amount I'm throwing in, but this all depends on how the auction plays out over this week.

If necessary, we can try to make offers to these other individuals to join ImmInst, both to join our bid and to come to the conference itself. Any individual who's willing to shell out $1000+ for a lunch with Ray certainly would enjoy coming to the conference to meet all these other great speakers.

Jay, you know this Jim Gibbons? I don't suppose he's the congressman. (That would be soooo awesome!)

[jaydfox]

I have no idea who he is. The name looked vaguely familar, since I quickly peruse the list of 300 members a couple times a month at least. When I saw the -1, I was worried, and thought it might be a prankster trying (with good intentions, but not will to follow through) to push the bid up. However, since it looked familar, I went to the 300 members list on the mprize website, and sure enough, there he was. Once I saw him, I remembered that he donated $1,000 on my birthday, so that's how I'm pretty sure he shelled that $1,000 out in one check (or credit card payment, as the case might be).

But an outreach could be a good idea. I'd wait until tomorrow, since the MPrize is planning on doing press releases tomorrow, now that the bid is over $1,000. The hope is to get Slashdot to bite. The press releases would have gone out today, but it was decided that with everything going on in London, the press release would be largely ignored, so the decision was made to hold the press, so to speak, for a day.

I'd be interested to see where the bidding goes, in the event that the press release gets attention. So I'd wait until Friday or Saturday to make the outreach. But what do I know, I'm the guy who didn't even know about sniping.

[justinb]

I will bid $200 for a seat on the team.

[Bruce Klein]

So far, I don't think we can beat that, can we Bruce?

Hard to say.... I'll send an outreach to Jim.

Thanks, justin.. still looking for a reply from Ray.

ImmInst Team

Seat 1: $500 - Bruce Klein (as high as $800)
Seat 2: $300 - Elrond
Seat 3: $250 - Malchiah
Seat 4: $200 - Justinb
Seat 5: $100 - Jay Fox (as high as $300)
Seat 6: $100 - Mind (as high as $200, if outbid money to support team $100)
No seat: $50 - Lightowl (money to support team)
--
Total: $1500 (as high as $1900)

[caliban]

I am very confused as to what is happening here: are you bidding to have a private lunch with Ray or are you bidding to make him come to the conference?

[jaydfox]

Well, we need more clarification on that, but we also need to hear back from Ray or his people. The best outcome, out of those suggested, is that Ray would come and have a private luncheon with the winners on Friday, stick around and "schmooze" with us Friday night with the other speakers and leadership, etc., and then stay for the conference, at least to attend. A presentation would be nice, but I'm not holding out for that.

Realistically, if Ray really doesn't want to come to the conference, then I'd settle for him being compelled to have lunch with us at the conference. On the other hand, Bruce, how long is the lunch scheduled to be? I know the detailed answer to this is most likely in the Conference forum, but I haven't frequented it much. Shame on me, I'll head over there this weekend and bring myself back up to speed. But anyway, how long is the lunch? And if I recall, the plan is to premiere the film at lunch? This would obviously make a luncheon fairly short and rather hectic, and hence not nearly enjoyable for the price. And if Ray just shows up and leaves, then it's not terribly worth it. If Ray really really doesn't want to come to the Conference, then I'd prefer the luncheon be held before or after the Conference proper, perhaps involving some post-luncheon schmoozing.

So we really need to know if Ray can make, and if he'd be willing to stick around for a while. He donated his words to the book, and we both (Ray and ImmInst) support the MPrize, and have transhumanist/posthumanist visions of the future, so I don't see why he wouldn't want to attend the conference if he's here anyway, and has a hotel room, but who know...

[jaydfox]

BTW, I've been mulling this over, and I'm upping my starting bid to $250, with a maximum of $400 if necessary to win it.

[Bruce Klein]

Dear Amara,

There are still a few days left in the auction which ends on July 15, but I was just
wondering if Dr. Kurzweil had gotten back with you on his availability for a possible
Nov 5 Atlanta meeting if our ImmInst Team were to win the eBay auction.

At this point, Atlanta looks to be best place our 6 team members to meet with Dr. Kurzweil.
A confirmation would allow us to better determine our bid on the auction.

Also, Dr. Kurzweil is warmly invited to speak at the conference, but is under no obligation
to do so, of course: http://www.imminst.org/conference

Forever yours,

Bruce Klein
http://www.imminst.org/bjklein

[Bruce Klein]

ImmInst Team
Seat 1: $500 - Bruce Klein (as high as $800)
Seat 2: $300 - Elrond
Seat 3: $250 - Jay Fox (as high as $400)
Seat 4: $250 - Malchiah
Seat 5: $200 - Justinb
Seat 6: $100 - Mind (as high as $200, if outbid money to support team $100)
No seat: $50 - Lightowl (money to support team)
--
Total: $1650 (as high as $2200)

[Bruce Klein]

Thanks, Jay.

I've placed a rough sketch of the Conference proceedings on the main conf. page: http://www.imminst.o...rence/#schedule

I've yet to determine the most optimal way in which we'll show the movie and have lunch/dinner, etc. I may have the film playing continuously in the conference reception area.

[jaydfox]

Bruce, I would add to my bid, in the same vein as Mind's, a secondary bid:

ImmInst Team
...
Seat 3:  $250 - Jay Fox (as high as $400; if outbid, money to support team $150)
...
Seat 6:  $100 - Mind (as high as $200, if outbid money to support team $100)
...

[Bruce Klein]

Thanks, Jay.

ImmInst Team
Seat 1: $500 - Bruce Klein (as high as $800)
Seat 2: $300 - Elrond
Seat 3: $250 - Jay Fox (as high as $400; if outbid, money to support team $150)
Seat 4: $250 - Malchiah
Seat 5: $200 - Justinb
Seat 6: $100 - Mind (as high as $200; if outbid, money to support team $100)
No seat: $50 - Lightowl (money to support team)
--
Total: $1650 (as high as $2200)

[JMorgan]

I guess it's good news that the auction stands at $1036 for the third day in a row. (Good for us anyway.) Just hold in a little longer.

Any word from the other bidders involved?

[jaydfox]

Bruce, a couple questions. First, since the auction ends at 3:15 AM EDT, 2:15 AM CDT, on the 15th, are you preparing yourself to be awake until at least 3:30 AM, to make sure you're there to snipe and make last second judgment calls?

Second, I'm wondering it it's entirely ethical to approach people who are technically competitors and in the lead, and ask them to join us. Kirk has been outbid, at least for now, so I don't see too much of an issue in approaching him. However, Jim is still in the lead, so any outreach to him might be viewed as an attempt to undermine the bidding process, and might even be illegal. Have we checked into this?

The unfortunate thing is, with sniping as a common practice, and indeed one predicted given the rule structure for eBay, we may not have the luxury of approaching Jim after he's been outbid, because that might happen 10 seconds before the auction closes. So we might still approach him, but let him know that he's free to bid alone, and we're not asking him to give up on his personal bid. What we are asking is if, in the plausible scenario where he gets outbid, would he like to commit to join our team, and commit some amount, which wouldn't necessarily be the amount he'd be willing to bid personally, to our team's bid. He could agree to join our team and bid $500 or $800 or $1,000 or $1,500 towards our team, while reserving the right to bid as much as he wants to for his own personal bid.

Thus, if the team's total bid is higher than his eventual maximum bid, which maximum we wouldn't know until the final seconds of the auction, if and when we or someone else outbids him, then he still has a chance to win with our team bid. If his personal bid exceeds the total of the ImmInst team bid (including his portion), then he wins on his own. In this way, we do not make his bid towards ImmInst contingent on his getting outbid, nor do we interfere with his personal bidding. If presented properly, we can avoid the ethical issues of undermining a competitor's bid.

[Bruce Klein]

Bruce, a couple questions. First, since the auction ends at 3:15 AM EDT, 2:15 AM CDT, on the 15th, are you preparing yourself to be awake until at least 3:30 AM, to make sure you're there to snipe and make last second judgment calls?

My current sleep cycle works out for this.

However, Jim is still in the lead, so any outreach to him might be viewed as an attempt to undermine the bidding process, and might even be illegal. Have we checked into this?

I've yet to hear back from outreach efforts, but I'm pretty sure the way we're going about this is legitimate. I'll keep your ideas in mind.

-Bruce

[jaydfox]

Well, on the bright side, Jim Gibbons has been outbid. He maxed out at $1,250, and the current bidding is up to $1,775, meaning the next bid must be at least $1,800.

So I'd say it's safe to approach Jim at this point, since he's out of the running. That is, unless $1,250 was just an early maximum, not his true maximum. Still, as long as we make every effort to approach him in an ethical fashion, I'd say we're kosher.

On the flipside, the new $1,800 minimum bid pushes us past our starting bid of $1650, and towards our current maximum of $2200. We definitely are going to need bigger internal bids, and with only 3.5 days to go, people are going to need to step up soon and let us know what they plan to bid.

The auction is 65% complete. Let's pull together and win this thing!

[Bruce Klein]

Still no reply from Ray on whether he can make it to Atlanta Nov 5.

[JMorgan]

Bruce, you might try contacting Ray through the MPrize contact, april@mprize.org. In the meantime, you're right. We definitely need bigger bids. I will up my bid to $400 to help win this thing. (Or at the very least, make the winner pay dearly for their win. )

But we should still try and get Jim or Kirk to join us. Maybe they'd like to come to the conference as well.

[eternaltraveler]

well... unless you know whether ray can make it & can also speak at our conference (which would be great) it might be better if someone else wins.

My money is going to the mprize anyway. I have a feeling the same holds true to varying degrees among the rest of you. If someone else wins that means this money plus their money goes to the mprize. The end result is better for the mprize.

Of course if he can actually come and speak at our conference that would be worth the cost of our win.

My 2 cents.

[jaydfox]

I agree with Elrond, but... Since we have a little over three days before Bruce has to make the final commitment to snipe with our maximum bid, we've got time to bid ourselves up internally on the assumption that Ray can come.

(BTW, Bruce, since you're in charge, do you want to set a deadline or rules for last minute internal sniping for a spot in the top six? maybe an hour before the auction ends, or a half hour, or two hours, or midnight EDT, which is a little over 3 hours before the auction ends? Or silent bids via PM accepted until the final hour? Let's make sure we know the rules, so feelings aren't hurt, and everyone gets fair notice.)

I think as long as Bruce operates on the assumption that all bids are contingent upon Ray's being able to come to the conference, unless otherwise specified, then he'll do the right thing and won't obligate anyone to something they didn't initially agree to. Given how much money is on the line, and how sensitive people can be about their finances, I'm sure Bruce will act in ImmInst's best interests.

But that raises the potential for a dilemma. We really need to get an answer from Ray before Thursday night, to leave us several hours to mull things over as a group, so that Bruce isn't left with tough decisions to make on his own. If word comes back that Ray can't make it, we'll need to reconsider things, perhaps send out emergency PM's to get feedback from people who have posted in this thread.

[jaydfox]

And as Malchiah pointed out, we can try going through MF. According to the auction website:

Questions?  Email Methuselah Foundation volunteer April at april(at)mprize(dot)org.

So the email address Malchiah gave does appear to be the official channel to ask questions about the auction, including terms and conditions.

[eternaltraveler]

But that raises the potential for a dilemma. We really need to get an answer from Ray before Thursday night, to leave us several hours to mull things over as a group, so that Bruce isn't left with tough decisions to make on his own. If word comes back that Ray can't make it, we'll need to reconsider things, perhaps send out emergency PM's to get feedback from people who have posted in this thread.

But that raises the potential for a dilemma. We really need to get an answer from Ray before Thursday night, to leave us several hours to mull things over as a group, so that Bruce isn't left with tough decisions to make on his own. If word comes back that Ray can't make it, we'll need to reconsider things, perhaps send out emergency PM's to get feedback from people who have posted in this thread.

I agree that there shouldn't be any further bidding unless we learn that Ray can indeed come. That would just open up a whole can of worms we don't need to deal with (who gets to go have lunch with him? Who decides on the time? What if not everyone in the top six can agree to that time, and so on). The only time we can all agree on is the conference.

It bothers me that we haven't heard anything back regarding the viablity of Ray meeting us in atlanta in the vicinity of nov. 5th. Ebayettiquete requires more prompt responses to inquires of this nature. Perhaps he needs time to think it over.

Anyway by the looks of things however the cookie crumbles the mprize is getting several thousand dollars or more. And that's great.