LONGECITY

Hi All -

Was watching Sci Fi science on ScienceHD and they had a show discussing singularity.

A person named "Marshall Brain" - dubbed "Technology Expert" (founder of the website "Howstuffworks.com") made the following statement:

"If we go back to the 1960's, there were computers doing 1,000 operations per second. 1980 - about a million operations per second. We go to the year 2000 - a billion operations per second with the Pentium 4. .... to today - we're doing about 10 billion operations per second. By 2020 we'd expect it to be a trillion. 2040 - we'd expect that to ramp up to about a Quadrillion operations per second. We think that maybe a human brain is worth about 10 Quadrillion operations per second, so sometime in that 2040 to 2050 range, we'd expect to see Parody (equivalence)."

The show then went on to discuss how machines will one day be as smart as the human brain and surpass it. However at the end of the show, they had a "Fun Fact" moment and the narrator said this:

"The Worlds most Powerful Super Computer is the Jaguar Cray XT5 at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. It's capable of 2.3 Quadrillion operations per second".

Hmm....

So guy number 1 was wrong? And if the brain is at 10 Quadrillion, and we're already to 2.3 Quadrillion, then its not going to take until 2020 let alone 2050 for us to get there. Does that mean the Singularity is significantly closer than the typical "50 years" estimate I keep hearing?

In addition to this, the following article states that the Chinese Supercomputer "Tianhi 1A" is now the fastest computer - performing at 1.4 times the speed of the Jaguar. That implies what? About 5 Quadrillion operations per second?
http://hplusmagazine...r-out-1st-place

-CB-
Edited by CryoBurger, 31 October 2010 - 05:12 AM.

Hi All -


"The Worlds most Powerful Super Computer is the Jaguar Cray XT5 at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. It's capable of 2.3 Quadrillion operations per second".

Hmm....

So guy number 1 was wrong? And if the brain is at 10 Quadrillion, and we're already to 2.3 Quadrillion, then its not going to take until 2020 let alone 2050 for us to get there. Does that mean the Singularity is significantly closer than the typical "50 years" estimate I keep hearing?

In addition to this, the following article states that the Chinese Supercomputer "Tianhi 1A" is now the fastest computer - performing at 1.4 times the speed of the Jaguar. That implies what? About 5 Quadrillion operations per second?
http://hplusmagazine...r-out-1st-place

-CB-

Exactly. Guy number 1 was wrong. Our supercomputers of today are very close to matching the human brain in raw processing power.

Of course understanding and emulating the human brain is a whole different story, and that's why the Singularity won't happen even when we can match the human brain in processing power.

In a few years; some 2-3 years probably, one of our supercomputers will match and surpass the human brain in processing power. 10-15 years after that, your everyday desktop computer will have the same capacity as the human brain. Considering the exponential progress of computer processing power, it won't be long until our computers are thousands, then millions, then billions of times more powerful than the human brain. This is just a few decades away.

Artificial intelligence is much more likely to happen than not to happen in the next several decades. And then the Singularity.

So guy number 1 was wrong? And if the brain is at 10 Quadrillion, and we're already to 2.3 Quadrillion, then its not going to take until 2020 let alone 2050 for us to get there. Does that mean the Singularity is significantly closer than the typical "50 years" estimate I keep hearing?

Well I keep hearing about 30 or even 20 years, perhaps it depends how we define "singularity" and when it (symbolically) begins. Creating artificial superintelligence might be harder than some people think, we dont even have "normal"(average human level) artificial intelligence today but still we can have transhumanism, immortality and other things that would change our civilization in ways we can barely imagine so would that be singularity already or not?

I don't think that Singularity matters. It is the process leading to the Singularity that will make a difference to our lives. Singularity is just the final single point of this process. I find it much more fascinating to observe or study the process and its implications. In any case, a technological (AI) Singularity will propably never match human consciousness (although it will match intelligence).

I don't think that Singularity matters. It is the process leading to the Singularity that will make a difference to our lives. Singularity is just the final single point of this process. I find it much more fascinating to observe or study the process and its implications. In any case, a technological (AI) Singularity will propably never match human consciousness (although it will match intelligence).

What do you mean by "it will never match human consciousness"? I think that if we can get a high enough resolution of the human brain and replicate that, consciousness will emerge from the woodwork.

Note: That doesn't mean we will understand consciousness, but just that we will be able to replicate it.

perhaps it depends how we define "singularity" and when it (symbolically) begins.

I thought it was pretty much defined as a point in time when we develop new technologies at infinite (or approaching infinite) speed.

Eg. records were replaced by CD's which lasted less time before than records before they were replaced by MP3's which are then replaced by... and each time a new technology is introduced, the time frame becomes shorter. Eventually you get to a point that as soon as a technology is created, it is replaced by another. This needs to happen in all areas of technology.

The AI is just considered as a way to get us to this point very fast because it has an avalanche effect - make an AI slightly smarter than us and then get it to create an AI slightly smarter than itself. Rinse and repeat ad nauseum. Eventually you land up with super intelligence that says bow before me.

I don't think that Singularity matters. It is the process leading to the Singularity that will make a difference to our lives. Singularity is just the final single point of this process. I find it much more fascinating to observe or study the process and its implications. In any case, a technological (AI) Singularity will propably never match human consciousness (although it will match intelligence).

What do you mean by "it will never match human consciousness"? I think that if we can get a high enough resolution of the human brain and replicate that, consciousness will emerge from the woodwork.

Note: That doesn't mean we will understand consciousness, but just that we will be able to replicate it.

I see consciousness as a much deeper thing than just a complex intelligence process. For a rather clumsy discussion see http://www.angelfire.com/ab2/abrodziak

Also see Plato's ideas, and Theory of Forms at http://en.wikipedia....Theory_of_Forms


Consciousness is not merely the sum of the activity of all neural (or artificial) networks. It is something more. Think of it this way: You can build a house with bricks and mortar, but unless you also input your emotions, memories etc, it will not be a home.

I see consciousness as a much deeper thing than just a complex intelligence process. For a rather clumsy discussion see http://www.angelfire.com/ab2/abrodziak

Also see Plato's ideas, and Theory of Forms at http://en.wikipedia....Theory_of_Forms


Consciousness is not merely the sum of the activity of all neural (or artificial) networks. It is something more. Think of it this way: You can build a house with bricks and mortar, but unless you also input your emotions, memories etc, it will not be a home.

One might argue that if you you set up the neural network, and then expose it to real world inputs, it will develop emotions and memories.
Edited by Elus, 04 November 2010 - 11:58 PM.