13 replies to this topic

[lightowl]

I have set up a site showing a list of planned and predicted technological developments, and other future related events. The plan is to collect a comprehensive list of articles and sites predicting and planning many different kinds of events. I am aware that there are many sites showing a similar timeline, but non, to my knowledge, are linking to sites relevant to those predictions and plans.

I am dedicated to keeping this list up to date, and I am hoping to get some kind of response from people who are, like me, consumed by future possibilities.

I am right now specifically interested in articles predicting physical immortality progress. I currently only have one article predicting that "The Genes involved in aging fully catalogued." by 2030.

I know many of you guys are keen readers of news on that subject, so I was hoping you would send me any articles you think might have a place on my site.

Thank you for your help.

www.techtimeline.com

[chubtoad]

I think your going to see the nuclear fusion plant a lot earlier than the timeline predicts. There is already plans to build one, but they are still debating where to build it (Japan is a likely choice).

[lightowl]

Yes... You are probably right, but I am just taking the word of fusion.org.uk on that prediction. I have not been able to find a better source on it, but I would very much like to have one.

I don't even have a clear date from that site, so I am estimating a bit on the prediction. Do you have a better article on this goal?

http://www.fusion.or.../faq/index.html

When can we expect electricity generated from fusion to be available?

Experimental fusion devices have now produced fusion powers of more than 10 megawatts. We are presently awaiting approval for a new machine, called ITER (just one in the world), capable of 500 megawatts of fusion power. ITER is expected to take 8 years to build.

Although that is on the scale needed for a power station, there will still be technological issues to address to produce steady, reliable electricity, so it is anticipated that a prototype power station will be needed after ITER. Electricity generation is expected in 30 to 40 years, depending on how focussed the research and funding decisions remain

[Kalepha]

I think The GW Forecast might have some articles you could use.

[lightowl]

Thanks... That's a great prediction page. I am planning on making a link list to other prediction pages. That one is certainly worthy of a place on that list.

[chubtoad]

Throughout the last few months of nature there has been a lot about fusion. I was unable to find the articles on their website, but if you know anyone who subscribes take a look.

[lightowl]

I don't know anyone with a subscription, but I will try some searches on fusion when I get some time to do so. I think there should be some more predictions or plans out there.

[ocsrazor]

Hi Lightowl,

Not to discourage you, but specific technology predictions are almost always incorrect, especially for date prediction. The timeline might be more useful if you arranged things as scalable achievements that are interdependent on each other and dependent on the effects of the economy and society that produces them.

General trend prediction tends to much more reliable that specific tech predictions though, so maybe you should look more in that direction. See John Smart's work for a good example of such.

Best,
Peter

[lightowl]

I am not easily discouraged so please hit me with your most honest critique.

I know predictions are generally off target, but if you have enough predictions on the same goals, it gives you an idea of when people think it will happen. Also, I am gathering plans for specific events on the list. I think that is a good tool for people who, like me, wants to follow technological developments.

I am planning on adding info on when the goal was actually achieved. If the list is being updated enough, it will also act as a historic reference to what predictions actually was close to the real date/year/decade. Also, I am planning to make this a portal to other prediction sites. Trend predictions would automatically qualify to being on the list, if such are included in articles.

Could you please provide me with a link to the trend predictions of John Smart you are mentioning?

[Lazarus Long]

You will find some of his work here

http://www.accelerating.org/

and here

http://singularitywatch.com/

I find him a fascinating and brilliant analyst of the issue of developing a valid time line for "progress". A word whose definition seems to change as well as we "progress" in an almost Zeno like paradoxical manner.

[lightowl]

Wow, yes, that's really impressive. I am generally looking to make an easy overview of what the future might bring ( and when if possible ). I have been reading allot from sites like this but have not had any luck finding anything that is more easily accessible. That's why I am making this site. To give an overview of the future, with the possibilities of access to further study.

Thanks for the pointer to these sites, they will certainly get a place on my site.

[Lazarus Long]

For the counter point I think it is important to remember that sometimes the more people know the more it gets in the way of their ability to integrate tangential information. In other words they get blindsided. One famous example came to mind from history when Rutherford said in 1930's shortly before his death:

"The energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine"
ERNEST RUTHERFORD, shortly after splitting the atom for the first time

I went looking for that quote and found this wonderful collection.

Bad predictions
http://www.utdallas....000/quotes.html

For example:

"By 1985, machines will be capable of doing any work Man can do."
HERBERT A. SIMON, of Carnegie Mellon University, considered to be a founder of the field of artificial intelligence speaking in 1965

"Democracy will be dead by 1950"
JOHN LANGDON-DAVIES, A Short History of The Future, 1936

"Space travel is utter bilge"
RICHARD VAN DER RIET WOOLLEY, upon assuming the post of Astronomer Royal in 1956

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"
THOMAS WATSON, chairman of IBM, 1943 on seeing the first mainframe computer

"640K ought to be enough for anybody"
BILL GATES, speculating about the RAM needs of computer users

"Everything that can be invented, has been invented"
CHARLES DUELL, US commissioner of patents, 1899

"By the year 1982 the graduated income tax will have practically abolished major differences in wealth"
IRWIN EDMAN, professor of philosophy Columbia University, 1932

"I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea"
HG WELLS, British novelist 1901

"Nearly all experts agree that bacterial and viral diseases will have been virtually wiped out by the year 2000"
(TIME, 1982)

"The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty - a fad"
The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903

"Radio has no future"
LORD KELVIN, Scottish mathematician and physicist, former president of the Royal Society, 1897

I must say I enjoyed this one relating to self interest.

"Science differs from scientists. The product of science is knowledge. The product of scientists is reputation."
Bart Kosko

And then there are these opinions that reflect the recalcitrance I noticed in certain dialogs about the MMP prize recently :

"The real question is not whether machines think, but whether men do."
B.F.Skinner

"So far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain. And so far they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
Albert Einstein

"New ideas pass through three phases of denial. First, they are wrong. Second, they are against the religion. Third, they are old news, trivial, common sense, and we all would have thought of them if we had the time, money and interest."
John Stuart Mill

"One day I learned that science was not true."
Bart Kosko

"Into every tidy scheme for arranging the pattern of human life, it is necessary to inject a certain dose of anarchism."
Bertrand Russell

"Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise."
Bertrand Russell

"All traditional logic habitually assumes that precise symbols are being employed. It is therefore not applicable to this terrestrial life, but only to an imagined celestial one. The law of excluded middle (A or NOT-A) is true when precise symbols are employed but it is not true when symbols are vague, as, in fact, all symbols are."
Bertrand Russell

"From causes which appear similar, we expect similar effects. That is the sum of all our experimental conclusions."
David Hume

"The brain is a universal measurement device acting at the quantum level."
Stephen Grossberg

"Unlike the old Roman Catholic Church, modern bivalent science does not claim to possess all knowledge. It claims to follow the only road to knowledge."
Bart Kosko

And of course the famous example of the Cautionary Principle expressed as the Law of Unintended Consequences.

"History shows that every technical application from its beginning presents certain unforeseeable secondary effects which are more disastrous than the lack of the technique would have been."
Jacques Ellul

[rillastate]

Congrats. Great site.

Whether the plans/predictions are a little off the mark, dead on, or completely inaccurate, my opinion is that a site like yours still creates interest. That is the important thing. Whether the timeline is to the T or not, just knowing and being able to varify with an estimated timeline that these technologies and breakthroughs are on the way at some point in the forseeable future creates a sort of emotional buzz.

I like your idea. I wouldn't mind if every newspaper and magazine had a "tech timeline" section.

Later,
Derek

[mrfesta]

Maxtor 600 GB Hard Drive: $430 @ Newegg.com. Getting closer