Based on the progress we are reaching - software and hardware - do you think that the first (general) human-level AI will be developed during the 2020s decade? How about mind-uploading?
I believe that mind-uploading will be achieved shortly after or before the AI because the technology is required to create an AI in the first place. But this is just the opinion of a non-professional.
Up until 2006 we thought we already have enough TeraFLOPS's lying in computer labs worldwide to run a functional simulation of a complete human brain, at the neuron level. Then we discovered that glial cells communicate between each other and may process data too, not just neurons. There are several varieties of glial cells, and these cells outnumber neurons 10 to 1 in the first place (we used to think they were "padding" for the neurons).
So now all predictions are off : not only we still can't make assumption as to the exact level of detail you need to simulate a neuron satisfactorily, but we don't know yet how the glial cells contribute to the mind, or even if they do at all.
That being said, reproducing the human brain in digital form is not the only way to make an artificial consciousness, as you seem to believe. Ultimately, the mind is a processor of abstractions, and as such it can be described in many different ways. I suggest you look into "expert systems", for instance. You can also do some mathematical modeling of the mind with software such as Simulink.
My prediction is, software sentience will probably appear first in video games. With every new game that comes out those darn AI's kick ass more efficiently. In Doom, AI's didn't know to duck when I fired at them... in STALKER, they know how to sneak up on me. In Call of Duty, they don't just seek cover, they flush YOU out with grenades if you try to hide. Ten years from now, they'll ninja your ass out of your pants if you so much as look at them the wrong way
Anyway... regarding mind uploading, I believe it's doable, but that we'll need very specific technology in order to achieve it. I'm thinking nanomachine colonies that would analyze all your synapses in-vivo. We aren't there yet, and I have no idea when this might exist. Could equally happen before software sentience, or after.
Nefastor