1036 replies to this topic

[pamojja]

Ref 241 has nothing to do with any mask wearing.

 

As said, it has to do with self-reported mask wearing in public places.

 

 yougov-chart.png   315.18KB   0 downloads
 

[Daniel Cooper]

Sweden and South Korea have at least 100k of nursing home residents each but only SK has had zero nursing home resident deaths.

 

https://www.scienced...167629616300492

https://www.scienced...976131713000212

https://news.yahoo.c...-135918520.html

 

South Korea is a country of over 50 million.  Sweden around 8.  That would imply significantly different rates of elderly in nursing homes.

[Daniel Cooper]

What's the mask wearing rate in Germany?  From what I can tell it doesn't seem exceptionally high.

 

 

[pamojja]

Its even lower here in Austria. Since for some time the mask mandate in shops was lifted (in public transport remaining). Now with rising infections mandated again. Just saw an article complaining that mask wearing in German's long distance trains is only 80%. In part compounted by different German states fining non-compliance, others don't. If I consider mainly elderly, who all seem to get around by not covering their nose.. its probably 80% in our trains too.

 

Germany is at 111 deaths per million. Austria short behind at 81. Switzerland at 230. And just between where I live in Austria and Switzerland is Lichtenstein with 26 per million. Covering all German speaking countries.

Edited by pamojja, 19 August 2020 - 11:15 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

And Austria is doing quite well at 81 deaths/1M population.  Even better than Germany at 111.

 

This is a very complicated thing and you can't say masks are the silver bullet.  It involves cultural factors, population density and distribution, how the aged are handled, and probably several things I haven't named and many we still don't know.

 

Masks probably help.  But you can't reduce this to "Countries that are successful in fighting covid-19 wear masks, those that aren't don't".  It's not that simple.

 

 

[Florin]

South Korea is a country of over 50 million.  Sweden around 8.  That would imply significantly different rates of elderly in nursing homes.

 

It's quite clear that Sweden has done a terrible job of keeping it's nursing home residents safe, and there's no good excuse for this fact.

[Florin]

As said, it has to do with self-reported mask wearing in public places.

 

yougov-chart.png
 

 

According to that chart (I only saw the "Avoiding crowded public places" chart before and didn't scroll down), Spain hit 80% (the threshold of getting transmission under control) self-reported mask wearing in May, after most of its deaths occured. And as I mentioned before, those self-reported stats can be misleading; in Spain, most wear masks outdoors but the masks come off in high risk indoor places like bars.

Edited by Florin, 20 August 2020 - 01:03 AM.

[pamojja]

It's quite clear that Sweden has done a terrible job of keeping it's nursing home residents safe, and there's no good excuse for this fact.

 

Most countries with a high death toll there also was a high percentage in nursing homes (UK, USA, Italy..). But Sweden was the only country with the integrity of those in responsibility to appologize for that. Unheard of anywhere else.
 

Spain hit 80% (the threshold of getting transmission under control) self-reported mask wearing in May, after most of its deaths occured...

 

..in Spain, most wear masks outdoors but the masks come off in high risk indoor places like bars.

 

We are end of August my friend. In Sweden neither in- or outdoors ever.

 

In rural Austria everyone always takes off the mask as soon as leaving the train or shop. Heard in Vienna fear is much higher, in that people alledgedly even hesitate to push the door-opening button, and then only with the elbow. And exactly there the positive tests are now increasing.

Edited by pamojja, 20 August 2020 - 08:59 AM.

[Mind]

It's quite clear that Sweden has done a terrible job of keeping it's nursing home residents safe, and there's no good excuse for this fact.

 

Not as bad as in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and many other countries and states. It seems particularly difficult to keep the virus out of nursing homes, or health "professionals" are just incompetent, particularly in some states in the U.S.

 

I suggested way back in January, that efforts to slow this virus and reduce deaths should be focused almost exclusively on nursing homes. To this day, the CFR for healthy people under 60 is minuscule. Why are healthy young people wearing masks? Why are school-children be forced into a dystopian existence? Why are tests being wasted on college kids?

 

If there was more focus on the frail elderly and treatments, this outbreak would be less deadly than the regular flu, IMO.

[Florin]

Most countries with a high death toll there also was a high percentage in nursing homes (UK, USA, Italy..). But Sweden was the only country with the integrity of those in responsibility to appologize for that. Unheard of anywhere else.

Those countries were incompetent and that's why their death tolls were so large. They've had plenty of time to learn from the SARS, MERS, and swine flu outbreaks just like SK did. But they didn't, and that's why this happened.

 

I'd like to see punishments for incompetence, not apologies.
 

In rural Austria everyone always takes off the mask as soon as leaving the train or shop. Heard in Vienna fear is much higher, in that people alledgedly even hesitate to push the door-opening button, and then only with the elbow. And exactly there the positive tests are now increasing.

Yeah, but I'm saying that Spain is doing the opposite; masks outdoors but no masks indoors. It's exactly the same as not wearing masks.

[Daniel Cooper]

 

Yeah, but I'm saying that Spain is doing the opposite; masks outdoors but no masks indoors. It's exactly the same as not wearing masks.

 

That seems unusual.  Is there actually evidence this is the case?

[Florin]

Not as bad as in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and many other countries and states. It seems particularly difficult to keep the virus out of nursing homes, or health "professionals" are just incompetent, particularly in some states in the U.S.

But not as good as SK, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, or even its next door neighbor, Norway.
 

I suggested way back in January, that efforts to slow this virus and reduce deaths should be focused almost exclusively on nursing homes. To this day, the CFR for healthy people under 60 is minuscule. Why are healthy young people wearing masks? Why are school-children be forced into a dystopian existence? Why are tests being wasted on college kids?

How could the non-nursing home deaths (which are 60% of all deaths) be avoided if efforts focused almost exclusively on nursing homes? Would nursing home staff have sufficient PPE?
 
How would the vulnerable, which don't have access to good respirators, protect themselves against maskless healthy young people that might be asymptomatic carriers?
 
Wasn't online learning supposed to be the future?
 

If there was more focus on the frail elderly and treatments, this outbreak would be less deadly than the regular flu, IMO.

Almost no one knew about any treatments at the start of this, and even today, any treatment is too speculative to take into account. But even if all nursing home deaths were avoided, that would still make this pandemic 2 to 3 times worse (and growing in the US) than the worst flu season.
 
In the grand scheme of deaths, that's still almost nothing, but they're more important than other deaths because this pandemic is a dress rehearsal for x-risk pandemics. So far, almost no one has learned the right lessons.

[Florin]

That seems unusual.  Is there actually evidence this is the case?

 

https://www.longecit...ndpost&p=897340

[Daniel Cooper]

But not as good as SK, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, or even its next door neighbor, Norway.
 

 

According to those graphs near the top of this page, Norway has one of the lowest rates of masking in the entire Western world.

 

So they should be in very bad shape, right?

 

 

[Daniel Cooper]

https://www.longecit...ndpost&p=897340

 

 

Are you saying that Spain doesn't "mandate masks inside" because they aren't required in bars and restaurants?

 

It is a tad difficult to eat or drink wearing a mask don't you think?

[Florin]

According to those graphs near the top of this page, Norway has one of the lowest rates of masking in the entire Western world.

 

So they should be in very bad shape, right?

 

Like I mentioned before, there's two ways to deal with this pandemic: masks like SK or lockdowns like Norway. Since cases are increasing again in Norway and lockdowns are not sustainable, it will be forced to impose mask mandates; it has already started to recommend them.

 

Are you saying that Spain doesn't "mandate masks inside" because they aren't required in bars and restaurants?

 

It is a tad difficult to eat or drink wearing a mask don't you think?

 

Yes.

 

Is it too difficult to eat outdoors or order takeout?

Edited by Florin, 20 August 2020 - 09:47 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

Like I mentioned before, there's two ways to deal with this pandemic: masks like SK or lockdowns like Norway. Since cases are increasing again in Norway and lockdowns are not sustainable, it will be forced to impose mask mandates; it has already started to recommend them.

 

 

Yes.

 

Is it too difficult to eat outdoors or order takeout?

 

 

By the same token, is it too difficult to effectively quarantine nursing homes and other frail elderly?

 

You're talking about shutting down or significantly impacting major portions of the economy or using what some would consider to be some heavy handed government tactics to force masking when if you're outside of those vulnerable groups you have in excess of a 99% chance of not dying from this disease.

 

Doesn't it make sense to most heavily impact those at the most risk and put the least impact on those with virtually no risk? 

[Mind]

But not as good as SK, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, or even its next door neighbor, Norway.
 

How could the non-nursing home deaths (which are 60% of all deaths) be avoided if efforts focused almost exclusively on nursing homes? Would nursing home staff have sufficient PPE?
 
How would the vulnerable, which don't have access to good respirators, protect themselves against maskless healthy young people that might be asymptomatic carriers?
 
Wasn't online learning supposed to be the future?
 

Almost no one knew about any treatments at the start of this, and even today, any treatment is too speculative to take into account. But even if all nursing home deaths were avoided, that would still make this pandemic 2 to 3 times worse (and growing in the US) than the worst flu season.
 
In the grand scheme of deaths, that's still almost nothing, but they're more important than other deaths because this pandemic is a dress rehearsal for x-risk pandemics. So far, almost no one has learned the right lessons.

 

This is not an X-risk pandemic!!!! Even if you believe the manipulated death statistics it is a bad flu season.

 

Some people are not acting like it is an x-risk pandemic because it is NOT an x-risk pandemic!!!!

 

If it was a more deadly disease people would act accordingly, there would be no problem with lockdowns and PPE. There is a very well known sub-group of people who are vulnerable who can isolate as they think necessary. The rest of the population can get back to normal life and keep the economy running.

[Florin]

This is not an X-risk pandemic!!!! Even if you believe the manipulated death statistics it is a bad flu season.

 

Some people are not acting like it is an x-risk pandemic because it is NOT an x-risk pandemic!!!!

 

If it was a more deadly disease people would act accordingly, there would be no problem with lockdowns and PPE. There is a very well known sub-group of people who are vulnerable who can isolate as they think necessary. The rest of the population can get back to normal life and keep the economy running.

 

I said this pandemic was a dress rehearsal for an x-risk pandemic, not that this was an x-risk pandemic. This is probably the last chance everyone gets to become familiar with elastomeric respirators before an x-risk pandemic hits probably in a decade or two at most.

 

If this was an x-risk pandemic, everyone would either be dead by now or well on their way to death. Lockdowns would be even less sustainable, and I don't see how PPE would magically become available overnight.

 

The worst flu season produced about 50k deaths in the US, whereas this pandemic has produced between 175k and 236k deaths, so far. So, the pandemic in the US is factually a lot worse than any flu season.

 

You keep insisting that vulnerable people could be somehow isolated, but you've provided no practical way on how to do that outside of nursing homes.

[Florin]

By the same token, is it too difficult to effectively quarantine nursing homes and other frail elderly?

 

You're talking about shutting down or significantly impacting major portions of the economy or using what some would consider to be some heavy handed government tactics to force masking when if you're outside of those vulnerable groups you have in excess of a 99% chance of not dying from this disease.

 

Doesn't it make sense to most heavily impact those at the most risk and put the least impact on those with virtually no risk? 

 

Nursing homes shouldn't be a problem but they were. Hopefully, now they aren't a problem, but I haven't looked into it recently. Excess deaths in several states have spiked recently. Are they connected to nursing homes? Dunno.

 

Anyway, what's your plan to isolate vulnerable people that don't reside in nursing homes? The obesity rate in the US is 40-50% for almost everyone, not just the elderly. How are those people going to be protected without mask mandates?

 

And why should the burden of isolation fall on them? Does the burden of isolation fall on the smoker or the people that want to avoid secondhand smoke? How many people that complain about mask mandates also complain about anti-nudity mandates? I've never heard of anyone dying from being exposed to nudity.

 

I'm not talking about shutting down anything except maybe bars and other crowded and poorly ventilated venues. Those probably make up a miniscule fraction of the economy. And if everyone wore respirators, almost nothing would need to be shut down and ventilation would be much less of an issue.

[Daniel Cooper]

Nursing homes should be forced to quarantine via regulation.  The residents are generally not competent to live on their own and are therefore in the professional care of a third party.  So the state has a role in implementing regulations that create rules for how nursing homes quarantine their residents.

 

Anyone living on their own that considers themselves at high risk - the elderly, the obese, those with other comorbidities should isolate themselves as they perceive whatever level of risk they are willing to accept.

 

I don't generally favor the state forcing these sorts of things on people except as a last resort.  Given the rate of mortality for most of the population, I just don't think it's warranted.  It makes no sense to me to force isolation on the bulk of the population that has a very low risk of mortality and makes far more sense to encourage those that actually do have substantial risk to isolate as they see fit. I'm just not much in favor of telling people what to do "for their own good".

 

Everyone of us when he wakes up in the morning and goes about their day accepts certain risks in their lives. There is nothing in the world without risk.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 23 August 2020 - 12:58 AM.

[Florin]

The tradeoff is you either have mask mandates or at least hundreds of thousands more deaths in the US alone and risk permanent disability for lots of the survivors. Without mask mandates, self isolation won't work for probably most or a very large portion of the vulnerable, because they either have to work for a living or live with people that need to work. Even if they're retired and live alone, they'd at least have to buy food and a lot of them (especially if they're older) won't be capable of ordering it online. If everyone had access to good respirators, mask mandates might not be necessary, but unfortunately, good respirators are still scarce.

[Mind]

Another edition of masks don't work in the "real world". They are not a solution. People have to eat and drink. People need social interaction for optimal health. Parents need to hug their kids. Couples need physical interaction.

 

South Korea locks down again (wearing masks for nearly 9 months now, with no end in sight): https://www.msn.com/...hut/ar-BB18ehTJ

 

 

[geo12the]

Another edition of masks don't work in the "real world". They are not a solution. People have to eat and drink. People need social interaction for optimal health. Parents need to hug their kids. Couples need physical interaction.

 

South Korea locks down again (wearing masks for nearly 9 months now, with no end in sight): https://www.msn.com/...hut/ar-BB18ehTJ

 

Most people understand that you don't need to wear a mask 100% of the time, that is ridiculous. But if you out shopping, on the subway or in crowded area. People must use common sense. Wearing them while out in public will help the country open up and help small businesses. I don't have the answer for all situations-clubbing, church etc. Once the cheap fast at home paper tests come out that will be a game changer. While not 100% accurate they are accurate for testing for those with a high viral load who are at greater risk of spreading the virus. If you test positive, stay home. then life can start to return to normalcy. 

[Florin]

Another edition of masks don't work in the "real world". They are not a solution. People have to eat and drink. People need social interaction for optimal health. Parents need to hug their kids. Couples need physical interaction.

 

South Korea locks down again (wearing masks for nearly 9 months now, with no end in sight): https://www.msn.com/...hut/ar-BB18ehTJ

 

Mask do work in the real world. SK has just a few hundred covid deaths, while the US has over 175k. And SK has never locked down (closing all non-essential businesses), not even now.

 

SK should improve their masks though. All of their masks seem to have earloops, and that means they have significant leakage around their edges.

[Hip]

New study shows that People who won’t wear face masks are more likely to be sociopaths and feel 'socially detached'

 

Makes sense: a sociopath cares nothing about the welfare of others.

[Daniel Cooper]

It would be interesting to look at the details of that study, to see how they determined who was and who wasn't a sociopath.  Given that making a diagnosis of sociopathy generally requires fairly extensive clinical interviews and evaluations.

 

 

[Hip]

It would be interesting to look at the details of that study, to see how they determined who was and who wasn't a sociopath.  Given that making a diagnosis of sociopathy generally requires fairly extensive clinical interviews and evaluations.

 

Usually in studies like this, they will use personality trait questionnaires, as this is much cheaper and easier to implement than extensive person-to-person evaluations.

 

There are established personality questionnaires for all sorts of personality parameters. A quick search on Google for "sociopath online questionnaire" finds this online test for sociopathic personality traits. 

 

 

 

 

Here is a better article about the study. Here are some quotes from the article:

 

The researchers found that:

 

those who scored higher on measures of callousness, deceitfulness, hostility, impulsivity, manipulativeness, and risk-taking tended to be less compliant with COVID-19 containment measures, such as socially distancing, washing hands frequently, and wearing a facemask in public.

 

Participants with greater empathy, on the other hand, tended to be more compliant with COVID-19 containment measures.

 

 

Exposing oneself and others to risk, even when it can be avoided, is a typical trait for people with antisocial tendencies, and with low levels of empathy.

 

 

The new findings are in line with previous research conducted in the United States and Poland, which also found that antisocial personality traits were associated with ignoring preventative measures meant to halt the spread of COVID-19.

 

 

The actual study is here.

[Daniel Cooper]

The only thing I can say is beware of the validity of any self reported assessment.  

 

In evaluating things like empathy or callousness - these assessments depend greatly on the truthfulness of the person taking the evaluation.  Perhaps it's true that people that don't wear mask are more callous and less empathetic, but it's also possible that these people are simply more truthful in answering the test.

 

I personally know people that would consider themselves paragons of empathy and concern for their fellow man.  But, in fact they are not.

 

In any case, saying that people that don't wear masks are more likely to be sociopathic is nothing but rank sensationalism on the part of the media.  You simply can not measure sociopathy with a self assessment as sociopaths tend to lie.  Sociopathy diagnosed outside of a clinical interview is complete nonsense.

 

 

 

[Hip]

The only thing I can say is beware of the validity of any self reported assessment.  
 
In evaluating things like empathy or callousness - these assessments depend greatly on the truthfulness of the person taking the evaluation.  Perhaps it's true that people that don't wear mask are more callous and less empathetic, but it's also possible that these people are simply more truthful in answering the test.

That's possible, I guess.

I know that in some psychological questionnaires, they incorporate a lie scale, designed to detect if the person is lying. If they are lying, they will discard their answers from the study.

 

But note that psychological questionnaires are not just created specifically for one study; they are established questionnaires which are usually set up and calibrated for general use in psychological research. A good psychological questionnaire will have been tested and calibrated against extensive clinical interviews. 



 

I personally know people that would consider themselves paragons of empathy and concern for their fellow man.  But, in fact they are not.

Strong empathy is not a common trait, so most people do not even know what empathy is. In my experience, most people think empathy is the same as sympathy, but these are quite different.

So when a person says they are empathetic, you have to question if they actually understand what empathy is; usually what they mean is they are sympathetic, not empathetic. 

 

 

In any case, saying that people that don't wear masks are more likely to be sociopathic is nothing but rank sensationalism on the part of the media.  You simply can not measure sociopathy with a self assessment as sociopaths tend to lie.  Sociopathy diagnosed outside of a clinical interview is complete nonsense.

True that sociopaths tend to lie and manipulate for personal gain. But there would be no particular reason for them to lie in a questionnaire like this, because it does not lead to personal gain. 

 

And as mentioned, usually these questionnaires are calibrated against clinical interviews before they are deployed. So you would have to look into the background of the questionnaires deployed in this study to see how accurate they are.

 

 

In any case, it does not take a rocket scientist to appreciate that people who flout mask use are likely going to be more antisocial or sociopathic. It's an entirely expected result. Wearing a mask (which is no big deal, no more difficult that wearing spectacles) can save the lives of others, not to mention your own life. So if you refuse to wear one, even when it is mandated, there must be some psychological reason for that. 

 

 

 

It is interesting that sociopaths/psychopaths are pretty common, comprising about 1% of the general population, about 3% of corporate boardrooms (sociopaths are good at gravitating to the top in companies), and around 7% in prisons.

 

Psychopaths also make efficient army soldiers: most ordinary military recruits find it hard to shoot enemy solders when they first go into battle, initially often deliberately aiming their rifles over the heads of the enemy, because normal human beings don't like to kill other human beings. It's a big thing to kill another person, if you have not done that before. But you find killing others does not bother psychopaths much, so they make enthusiastic solders.