Gamma Ray Burst Threat
Immortality Institute Online Chat :: Sun. Apr 27th 2003
Location: Cyberspace - http://www.imminst.org/chat
On Apr 27th 2003 at 8:00 PM EST the Immortality Institute will hold a moderated chat to discuss the potential for damaging gamma ray bursts. A large scale gamma ray burst would leave half the earth totally devoid of life. We'll explore the impact of such a burst, plans to monitor such events, and possible scenarios to avoid such a large scale catastrophe.
CHAT SUMMARY
Discussion Contributors:
Mechanus (Nus)
Michael Haislip (celendra :: http://www.transhumaninstitute.com)
Kenneth Sills (Lazarus Long)
Michael Anissimov(MichaelA)
Ryan Bates (XxDoubleHelixX)
Edititing:
Bruce J. Klein (BJKlein)
Topic: Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) Threat:
What are GRB's:
Gamma Rays are the most energetic form of light. GRB's are...
Why should Immortalist worry about them?
Researchers have suggested that one or more mass extinctions during the past few hundred million years might have been triggered by supernovae, and that it might happen again.
The flash of heat and light might flash-burn anything not in the shade, heating the atmosphere would cause big winds. The air would be much hotter for weeks, as hot as an oven depending on the distance. This would affect the other side of the Earth eventually.
But there is no consensus on whether gamma ray bursts are actually linked to supernovae, and there's even less agreement over how dangerous they might be.
Still, NASA scientists acknowledge the threat, describing it this way on a GRB informational Web page:
A gamma ray burst originating in our neck of the Milky Way, within a thousand light-years or so, could lead to mass extinction on Earth. Gamma rays interacting in the Earth's atmosphere would burn away the ozone layer, allowing deadly ultraviolet radiation to penetrate through the atmosphere. The influx of radiation would lead to widespread cancer and other diseases.
Another worry are so-called hypernovae, which are related to mysterious gamma-ray bursts in deep space. Astronomers believe these are similar to supernovae but that a beam of concentrated energy, emanating along the star's axis of rotation, happens to be pointed at Earth.
Though the new study did not look into the hypernovae hazard, Gehrels said it's likely for one aimed at Earth to occur once every couple of hundred million years somewhere in our galaxy, most of the time at a very large distance from our planet, however.
http://www.space.com...s_010522-1.html
The first GRB's were discovered by accident, in 1967 by U.S. satellites deployed to monitor possible violations of the nuclear test ban treaty.
Where do GRB's come from?
Nearly a year ago, two separate studies firmly linked GRBs to exploding stars called supernovae. But one thing has continued to puzzle astronomers: The bursts seem to come in two distinct varieties, those lasting less than two seconds and those lasting longer.
A new study of 1,972 bursts on file (collected by NASA's Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, which was de-orbited in 2000) supports the growing consensus that the short bursts come from dramatic mergers of black holes or other massive objects, like neutron stars. Computer modeling of these mergers suggests tremendous radiation would be unleashed as matter is squashed between the colliding objects. Mergers occur on a far greater scale when two galaxies meet up, their central, super massive black holes eventually falling together.
The longer bursts, according to the new study, appear to originate from the biggest supernovae, explosions of stars that are more than 30 times the mass of our Sun. Such explosions leave some material behind, which collapses back into what's known as a stellar black hole, theory holds. These dense objects pack the mass of several suns into a region no bigger than a city. http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/burst_blackholes_030305.html
ImmInst members put their collective heads together to discuss the possibility of GRB's and potential survival solutions. The following are in order of preference, 1. being most preferred.
Two ideas predominated - Prediction and Protection. Both are equally important, however, if we're unable to find success at prediction, we may have to resort to total protection alternatives.
Prediction:
As suggested by Kenneth Sills, if we can successfully model the probabilities and examine real time examples in the cosmos, we should be able to predict when and where a gamma ray burst will come from.
Apr 2003 Related Article:
Supernova Warning: First Ever Accurate Forecast of Exploding Star
http://story.news.ya..._exploding_star
Idea: The Fermi paradox may be explained by GRB.
If life is wiped out every few million years by GRB's this may explain why we've yet to see other intelligent creatures in the universe.
Protection: Assuming we can't predict a blast:
1. Harden the Ionosphere
This solution is held as the most viable, especially in the short run. Since our atmosphere already shields us from harmful rays, we'd be scaling up the effectiveness by enhancing the existing natural system.
What is the ionosphere: 'that part of the upper atmosphere where free electrons occur in sufficient density to have an appreciable influence on the propagation of radio frequency electromagnetic waves' (http://www.ngdc.noaa...O/ionontro.html)
The ionosphere can be excited by simple radio waves. HAARP
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/ is already undertaking such projects to 'excite' the ionosphere.
2. Preempt The Burst Source
This solution would require advanced technology, and an intrepid spirit, but in theory we may be able to send probes out to hunt down and neutralize or push the GRB source away from our solar system.
3. Dyson Shielding
This would involve a huge project, however, it may prove to be a viable option if nanotech allows for easy manufacture of large scale protective barriers around the solar system. The idea involves creating a shield, which would serve the inverse purpose of the original idea proposed by Dyson called the Dyson Sphere. A Dyson Shield would wrap around the solar system providing a layer of protection against gamma ray bursts. It may prove more viable to create a Dyson Shield Cloud out of a Gamma Ray Absorbent Material, preferably 'smart' nano-enhanced material.
4. Upload to Safer Substrate
This is a transhumanist solution what would require advanced technology to upload our selves onto a possibly networked system with redundant architecture.
Assuming we're able to predict a GRB's:
6. Light Speed Escape Pods
A difficult proposition to say the least, but worth noting. If we're able to have some lead time, say more than a few minutes, and if we've developed space ships with the ability of traveling near the speed of light, we may be able to outrun the strongest portion of the blast, allowing the distance to provide the shield
7. Move to Opposite side of Earth
This would be a short term solution. The viability is here now for implementation, however, the future well being of the whole earth after the GRB may make this option mute.
8. Live Under Ocean/Ground
Self explanatory and similar scenario to #7. But if we already have uploading capabilities, this may be a way to add protection.
Members came away from the discussion with the shared understand that gamma ray burst do present a real and dangerous threat to life. However, with improved detection and better modeling and predictability, we can prepare. The threat may not be as high on the list of immediate concerns because of the long interval between possible strikes, however, it's never to early to start thinking about possible solutions.
CHAT ARCHIVE::
<BJKlein> Topic: Gamma Ray Burst Threat
<BJKlein> We're open to discussion...
<BJKlein> but i'll start with a few basics:
<BJKlein> Why Talk About Gamma Ray Bursts?
<BJKlein> Because they can wipe out 1/2 of the earths population.
<BJKlein> and in so doing.. probably kill the other 1/2
<BJKlein> in due process over a certain amount of time (still being debated)
<BJKlein> So, let's say.. a gamma ray burst hit the Eastern Hemisphere...
<BJKlein> we lucky guys in the Americas would survive..
<jubungalord> How fast would the earth.... bodies of water ect.... heat up
<Mermaid> there is no such thing as 'eastern hemisphere' as far as i know
<Mermaid> its only north and south
<BJKlein> however, very quickly our environment would change.. and change big time
<Mermaid> what is the duration of a 'gamma ray hit'
<BJKlein> Eastern Hemisphere
<BJKlein> The half of the earth comprising Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia.
<Mermaid> its relative BJ..but its only a term..i get the idea
<BJKlein> duration of a blast anywhere btwn... 1min and 10mins..
<BJKlein> plus or minus...
<Mermaid> and is the 'hit' spread out or precise?
<jubungalord> CAn they pas directly throught the earth
<BJKlein> it's like sunshine..
<BJKlein> it will totally hit one side of the globe
<Nus> how often do gamma ray bursts happen; what is the probability one will kill us in the next 50 years? 50.000? etc
<BJKlein> if you're not hiding under the ocean or underground.. like a few hundred feet or more.. you'll die
<BJKlein> totally unknown...
<Mermaid> if its unknown..how real is this 'threat'
<BJKlein> we'll sorry I don't have the guesses
<celindra> Very brief (lasting under 100 milliseconds) gamma ray bursts we detect may stem from microscopic-scale black holes exploding throughout space. There
<celindra> could be 10 billion such micro-holes distributed within every few cubic lightyears of space-- which means one could pass through our solar system any time.
<celindra> If this theory is correct, several of these will detonate-- each with the force of a 100 billion megaton nuclear bomb-- every year in this same volume of
<celindra> space.
<BJKlein> but we can make predictions of course.. to a degree of probability...
<BJKlein> but I don't know
<BJKlein> thanks celindra..
<Mermaid> i dont know what to say
<Nus> would gamma ray bursts kill non-biological beings?
<Nus> (for if I'm uploaded, you see)
<BJKlein> I would suspect so..
<celindra> Depends on the architecture
<celindra> Radiation isn't good for electronics
<BJKlein> thanks goodness someone knows
<BJKlein> to the blast and effect is proportional directly to the ammount of energy.....
<BJKlein> a large enough blast would obliterate anything..
<celindra> We can add gamma ray bursts to the list of cosmic apocalypse scenarios -- false vacuum decay, asteroid impact, tc
<celindra> etc
<BJKlein> yeh.. doe's someone have the master list?
<BJKlein> wta is talking about starting a existential threats group for such purposes
<celindra> Heh ... is there a master list?
<Lukian> lmao
<Nus> thunderbolt singularities are my favorite
<BJKlein> I know nick has written a paper re such events
<Mermaid> what is false vacuum delay?
<BJKlein> nick bostrom
<celindra> http://www.nickbostr...tial/risks.html
<Nus> Mermaid: if the universe is not really the lowest energy state but a "metastable" energy state (that's just lower than its "surroundings") then it could decay to the real vacuum, and everything would go boom
<Nus> instant big crunch
<Nus> , I think.
<celindra> Right
<Mermaid> i see
<celindra> And we would never know it was happening
<Nus> I know there are some versions that give an instant big crunch, at least
<Nus> right
<Nus> same for the thunderbolt singularity
<BJKlein> gamma ray burst are one suggested reason for the fermi paradox
<Nus> I doubt it could be the full explanation
<Nus> well, perhaps it could
<Nus> if everyone always gets toasted before (intelligent) life evolves
<BJKlein> hmm..
<XxDoubleHelixX> you know we can't correct our posts..
<XxDoubleHelixX> heh
<BJKlein> nick has excluded gamma and others from his list because they don't represent 'global' terminal threats:
<BJKlein> solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray bursts, galactic center outbursts, supervolcanos, loss of biodiversity, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility,
<BJKlein> XxDoubleHelixX, yeh working on it :/
<XxDoubleHelixX> ok, i was just making sure it wasnt just me
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Hi everyone I am just checking in early so I can read teh discussion after I get out of the shower, go ahead and start exploring the Universe without me
<XxDoubleHelixX> no prob
<Lazarus_Starchaser> but I promise to catch up
<BJKlein> hola Lazarus_Starchaser
<Lazarus_Starchaser> I got tired of the old "long" so I thought I would change into something more appropriate for the occassion lol
<Lazarus_Starchaser> While I am away why don't you all just get started and see where this all goes
<BJKlein> let's hope star dosn't go super nova
<Nus> "The possibility that we are living in a false vacuum has never been a cheering one to contemplate. Vacuum decay is the ultimate ecological catastrophe; ... after vacuum decay not only is life as we know it impossible, so is chemistry as we know it.
<Lazarus_Starchaser> If it is our Sun you are talking about then I agree anything else is years away
<Nus> However, one could always draw stoic comfort from the possibility that perhaps in the course of time the new vacuum would sustain, if not life as we know it, then at least some structures capable of knowing joy. This possibility has now been eliminated."
<Nus> (quote from the article that proved the instant big crunch for vacuum decay)
<BJKlein> link
<Nus> I typed that from a book
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Isn't the idea of "stoic comfort " an oxymoron?
<XxDoubleHelixX> so we have a "ending" theory that has proof to make it fact?
<Nus> no, no; this is just *if* vacuum decay happens
<Nus> which it probably won't
<Lazarus_Starchaser> vacuums suck
<BJKlein> and .. why is 'capable of knowing joy' such a hot commodity.. (sorry off topic)
<Mermaid> heh
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<Lazarus_Starchaser> Oh oh did I break something?
<celindra> Yes
<BJKlein> probably the effects of a solar flare burster
<celindra> We're being irradiated right now!
<BJKlein> our dna is suffering...
<XxDoubleHelixX> repairs about 10000 bases a day
<BJKlein> but it suffers much more from glycation .. free radical damage
<Lazarus_Starchaser> I see no one is in the mood for a little antigrav levity in the face of anihilation is definitely frowned upon, even if we have to wait for the puch line for a few centuries or even millennia, we've been irradiated from teh get go how do you think mutations got started?
<BJKlein> XxDoubleHelixX, how many are damaged each day?
<XxDoubleHelixX> how many cells?
<BJKlein> dna base pairs
<Lazarus_Starchaser> mutation is bad 99% but you can tahnk the 1% for every sucess we've got to show and the fact we are still here
<XxDoubleHelixX> I can only give you that figure of how many bases are replaced a day
<XxDoubleHelixX> which is 10k
<Lazarus_Starchaser> the 1% of mutation is responsible for at least 50% of successful evolution
<XxDoubleHelixX> Oh per cell i mean
<Lazarus_Starchaser> the other 50% is probably just random chance
<BJKlein> ahh.. thanks
<XxDoubleHelixX> heh
<XxDoubleHelixX> I just posted about an experiment upregulating a protein used in repair
<XxDoubleHelixX> but the results were negative life extention
<XxDoubleHelixX> so, they are going to have to try the whole protein system
<Nus> that's a term I'm going to remember
<Nus> "negative life extension"
<Mermaid> upregulating or negative life extension?
<Mermaid> heh
<XxDoubleHelixX> Well i ment as in no increase or decrease
<Nus> I see
<XxDoubleHelixX> course I dont know why the person chose that specific protein
<XxDoubleHelixX> it only cuts out the bases (endonuc)
<XxDoubleHelixX> we should be looking at the ones that check for the damage
<Lazarus_Starchaser> heh, I thought you folks were going to discuss celestial events and cosmic cataclysms? Not DNA, all carcinogens are mutagens but not all mutagens are carcinogens, cosmic rays work that way too
<XxDoubleHelixX> <shrug>
<Lukian> rotfl
<XxDoubleHelixX> sorry, im done
<Lazarus_Starchaser> good at least someone is getting thejoke :(
* Lukian pats XxDoubleHelixX
* BJKlein bows to the new chat snipper
<BJKlein> So, question...
<BJKlein> any brilliant ideas on how to avoid death from gamma bursts..
<Lazarus_Starchaser> stand in the shade
<celindra> Won't help in the long run
<Lazarus_Starchaser> If it is raining waves then get an umbrella
<BJKlein> Escape Pods
<BJKlein> Dig A Hole
<BJKlein> Live Under the Ocean
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Where are you runing off to Bj?
<BJKlein> don't know
<BJKlein> nowhere yet
<Nus> travel to potential gammaraybursters and defuse them?
<celindra> Those are all short term solutions -- biosphere collapse will kill the survivors
<BJKlein> i'm trying to imagine what will happen to the bioshpere...
<Lazarus_Starchaser> If sufficient energy can pass throught he entire Earth then only a contained and coherent plasma field that blocks passage of the radiation would work but first forecast the threats
<BJKlein> one side of the planet.. dead, decaying, viod of biomass..
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Know the direction and probable strength and then worry about how to shield the effects
<XxDoubleHelixX> how many rads of radiation are we talking here?
<XxDoubleHelixX> 1.5 mill?
* BJKlein googles
<Lazarus_Starchaser> The moon when eclipsing the Sun makes a good shield, give it a magnetosphere large enough and we could ride the wake if it is timed right but the sacale of the problem is not beyond human perception
<Lazarus_Starchaser> now play children, that was scale* btw
<Nus> I don't think we can know where GRBs come from in advance; can we?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> be back later
<Lukian> k Lazarus_Starchaser
<BJKlein> not from what i've read...
<BJKlein> we haven't seen one as it happend yet..
<deego> what is GRB?
<BJKlein> gamma ray bursts
<deego> oh
<deego> sorry
<deego> thanks
<BJKlein> np
<BJKlein> we can detect the after glow of x-ray
<celindra> It's hypotheized that a neutrino burst precedes GRB by a few seconds -- although that's not much of a warning
<BJKlein> "Gamma rays are distinguished from X rays by their origin. Gamma rays are produced by nuclear transitions while X-rays are produced by energy transitions due to accelerating electrons"
<BJKlein> http://www.wikipedia...Gamma_radiation
<BJKlein> build lead houses
<celindra> And stay in them for aeons
<Nus> build a Dyson sphere made of lead
<celindra> And block the sun
<celindra>
<celindra> Devil's advocate ...
<BJKlein> how thick..
<MichaelA> you could leave a gap in the sphere at the elliptic
<Nus> what's wrong with blocking the sun?
<Nus> (ecliptic) but why would you want to?
<MichaelA> not much, unless someone wants it
<MichaelA> with our current level of technology, we would die
<MichaelA> but eventually, if we survive, the sun probably would be considered a horrible waste
<BJKlein> wiki again: "In terms of ionization, gamma radiation interacts with matter via three main processes: the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, and pair production."
<celindra> Let's say we know a GRB will happen this time next year. What will you do to survive?
<MichaelA> the opportunity cost of leaving all that energy in one place is enormous
<Nus> oh, you mean build a Dyson sphere inside Earth's orbit?
<Nus> a lead one? and live on the Earth?
<Nus> that would be completely pointless!
<BJKlein> if a GRB happened next year.. we'd probably all need to move to opposite side of the earth.. and calculate the effect and stockpile food, etc.
<celindra> Basic survivalism
<MichaelA> it would be, Nus, but it was humorous briefly when Mike brought it up
<MichaelA> or, hm, you did
<MichaelA> my bad
<XxDoubleHelixX> I couldnt find anything on how many rads it would produce, how well.
<XxDoubleHelixX> how+oh
<Mermaid> later
<Nus> I meant a normal Dyson sphere, around the sun
<Nus> butnevermind
<MichaelA> Dyson Clouds are more practical than Dyson Spheres, btw
<BJKlein> if we could predict a dyson only on one side
<BJKlein> or.. find a way to counter the rays not by sheilding.. but by counter engery waves?
<celindra> Actually, BJ, the ionosphere could conceivably be "hardened"
<celindra> Check out the HAARP project
<BJKlein> http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/
<Nus> I'm fairly sure you can't stop photons with an energy wave
<celindra> You can stop UV rays
<celindra> And other rays
<Nus> maybe if you could make them interfere destructively; but you don't have that precision
<Nus> how?
<celindra> The upper atmoshpere does it all the time
<BJKlein> let's say we had nanobots.. on an outer ring.. sending info to a lower ring..
<Nus> celindra: yes, but not by sending energy waves
<BJKlein> to exactly counter the photons..
<Nus> ah, never mind
<Nus> you were talking about something else
<Nus> BJKlein, the info would have to go faster than light if I understand you correctly
<Nus> gamma rays go at light speed
<celindra> It's not an energy wave, it'sm exciting the already-existing ionoshpere to do quadruple-duty
<BJKlein> smart matter movements .. yeh.. speed of light problem
<BJKlein> haven't we figured out how to send info faster than light yet?
<celindra> Nope
<celindra> Unless you count tachyons which haven't been verified
<Nus> perhaps if we can find exotic matter :/
<BJKlein> ex: http://plus.maths.or...asterThanLight/
<MichaelA> what do people think of the Casmir Effect
<celindra> Casmir is well-acccepted
<BJKlein> 'The attractive force between two surfaces in a vacuum - first predicted by Hendrik Casimir over 50 years ago - could affect everything from micromachines to unified theories of nature'
<BJKlein> http://physicsweb.or...le/world/15/9/6
<Nus> there are "quantum inequalities" that prevent it from being used too much IIRC
<Nus> but yes, it's well-accepted
<MichaelA> does it have to be mirrors (as the article that Bruce posted seems to imply) or can it be any metal plates?
<celindra> I've always heard of metal plates ....
<Nus> I thought it could just be any surface
* Nus googles
<celindra> But I think it can be any surface
<Nus>
<Nus> The Casimir effect is a small attractive force which acts between two close parallel uncharged conducting plates, It is due to quantum vacuum fluctuations of the electromagnetic field.
<Nus> so they have to be conducting
<Nus> metal would work
<MichaelA> gotcha
<BJKlein> "However, vacuum fluctuations are not some abstraction of a physicist's mind. They have observable consequences that can be directly visualized in experiments on a microscopic scale. For example, an atom in an excited state will not remain there infinitely long, but will return to its ground state by spontaneously emitting a photon. "
* MichaelA must afk now unfortunately
<BJKlein> seya
<MichaelA> Haldane thingy
<BJKlein> go go go!
<MichaelA> bye for a while
<Nus> byebye
<BJKlein> so to recap...
<BJKlein> ideas for avoiding death:
<BJKlein> 1. dig a hole
<BJKlein> 2. dyson idea
<BJKlein> 3. predict and move accordingly
<BJKlein> 4. lead houses
<BJKlein> 5. live under the ocean
<Nus> how long a time do you have in advance to predict them?
<BJKlein> 6. escape pod
<BJKlein> as of now.. no time I would guess..
<Nus> but do they give any signal before gamma-ing?
<Nus> at all?
<celindra> neutrinos
<celindra> About 10 seconds before
<celindra>
<BJKlein> ahh.. nice
<Nus> keep your calculator handy then
<Utnapishtim> Are there any estimates as to the likelihood of such a burst occuring
<BJKlein> 7. neutrino detector
<Utnapishtim> in any given year
<BJKlein> 8. upload quick time
<celindra> (upload into a radiation-proof form)
<BJKlein> Utnapishtim, from what i've read.. millions of yrs
<Nus> killing any potential gamma bursters in advance would also be a solution if possible
<BJKlein> 100mill +.. could explain the fermi paradox
<Utnapishtim> so the chance in any given year is millions to one?
<celindra> Of course, Fermi paradox would be explained by a finite universe as well ...
<BJKlein> 8. preempt GRP sources
<Nus> celindra: a finite and small universe
<BJKlein> sory 9.
<celindra> BJ: don't forget ultra-exciting the ionosphere
<Utnapishtim> I am trying to get a handle on the frequency of gamma ray bursts
<Utnapishtim> so I can gauge the threat level they represent
<BJKlein> ahh 10. ionosphere hardening
<celindra> I think there's about one every night that is detectable by astronomers
<celindra> Far far away
<BJKlein> yeh.. the burst are high energy.. so in effect there relatively rare events
<Utnapishtim> Any ststistical analysis been done on the threat to human life in the short to medium term
<celindra> Number 9 and 10 are preferrable
<celindra> Not really
<celindra> Not enough known about them
<Utnapishtim> relatively rare being what.. In gauging how seriosuly we should take this the orders of magnitude involved are improtant
<celindra> Odds are we'll get near a burst within 1 million years
<celindra> Short term, I think the odds are small
<Utnapishtim> It would seem that the risk would need to be nonneglible to devote a nonneglibigle amount of time to the prob
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Celindra the predictive aspects of Bursts are being overlooked
<Utnapishtim> It seems to high a quality problem for us to be addressing right now...
<Lazarus_Starchaser> btw i am back
<Utnapishtim> Lazarus: Are you Lazarus Long?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> and I read back as far as metal plating
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Is the Pope polich?
<celindra> No, but he's Polish.
<Lazarus_Starchaser> make that polish
<Utnapishtim> cool... Nicve to see you again!
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Listen I took a shower and came up with two methodolof=gies that are both within the scope of human endeavor within the time alloted
<Lazarus_Starchaser> methodolgies
<Lazarus_Starchaser> It isn't that comlpicated a problem
<Lazarus_Starchaser> yes the risks are high but all we would need is consensus among humans
<Lazarus_Starchaser> now that IS a PROBLEM!!!
<Utnapishtim> I think that resources and intellectuial energy devoted to a problem that is as relatively unlikely as a civilisation decimating gamma ray burst is not the best plan of action
<celindra> Utna -- GRBs are only one of many cosmic threats
<Lazarus_Starchaser> well t is worth the intellectual effort but I think panic is highly uncalled for
<Utnapishtim> when it seems that the amount of energy/resources we devote to existential threats should be proportional to the danger they represent
<BJKlein> GRB Survival Ideas
<BJKlein> 1. Harden the Ionosphere
<BJKlein> 2. Preempt The Burst Source
<BJKlein> 3. Dyson Sheilding
<BJKlein> 4. Upload to Safer Susbstrate
<BJKlein> 5. Neutrion Detecor (10 sec lead time)
<BJKlein> 6. Light Speed Escape Pods
<BJKlein> 7. Move to Opposite side of Earth
<BJKlein> 8. Live Under Ocean/Ground
<Lazarus_Starchaser> be fair Utna lets examine the problem seriously
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Number one is doable and so is creating a barrier in space occluding the inbound energy
<BJKlein> ordered by preference
<XxDoubleHelixX> So, this would shoot out a high ammount of radiation, would you say that I could be like a nuke like rad level?
<XxDoubleHelixX> i=It
<BJKlein> yes.. nuclear bombs are good examples
<Nus> light speed escape pods probably won't work
<BJKlein> same radiation effect
<celindra> A single GRB generates the equivalent of several million nukes
<Nus> if you only have 10 second head start
<celindra> But it dissipates through space
<BJKlein> Nus.. that example is implying a better detection method
<Nus> aha
<Nus> several million? it has to be more
<Nus> or not?
<celindra> Several billion I mean
<Lazarus_Starchaser> All it would take to accomplish number one is creating a series of Superconductive Tori at straegic points around teh planet withteh goal of stimulating the core to accelerate rotational velocity only slightly but we could increase the strength ofhte magnetosphere considerably that way
<Nus> I would still guess it has to be more
<Lazarus_Starchaser> the 10 second number is false
<Lazarus_Starchaser> let us examine probabilities
<Nus> what number is correct?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> start with the closet star systems what is their probability of going nova and what do we have fro likely energy output in our direction?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> example if Sirius was about to go nova right now the energy fromthe blast won't reach us for almost nine years
* Nus suspects someone has already done this calculation and it can be found on Google
<Nus> yes, but we wouldn't *know* nine years in advance
<Nus> or is that not what you're saying?
<celindra> We would know as soon as the blast wave hit
<Lazarus_Starchaser> now all we have to do is observe Sirius closely and determine with respect to the physics involved the likelihood of if and when the star goes nova and then plan around teh prediction
<BJKlein> yeh... it seems we should be able to predict
<Nus> I think it would be impossible to predict with that much accuracy
<Lazarus_Starchaser> we are already looking into the past and have a means of analyzing the threat, these aren't some mystery alien about the come out of the shadows and devour us
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Yes actually it is
<BJKlein> with a high degree of accuracy, if we had a model
* Nus is going to sleep
<Nus> byebye everyone
<celindra> Yes, but the "current" observations are really nine years old, so that model better be good
<celindra> Bye
<BJKlein> seya Nus
<Utnapishtim> bye
<Lazarus_Starchaser> we are getting a level of understanding through just Chandra and Hubble that makes all astronomy of the past pale in comparison
<Lazarus_Starchaser> c-ya nus
<Lazarus_Starchaser> humans they have such short attentions spans that is the real threat
<MichaelA> Laz: yep
<MichaelA> the root problem is always the humans, unfortunately
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Our understanding of celestial mechanics is advancing almost faster than genetics yet even fewer people understand that
<MichaelA> too bad perfection doesn't come for free with self-awareness
<MichaelA> I don't think it is, there isn't *that* much to do with celestial mechanics
<MichaelA> they move according to Newton and GR
<Lazarus_Starchaser> like I said the social dilemma of preparing for a Burst is more dificult than the tech
<Lazarus_Starchaser> but that is a separate topic
<BJKlein> luckly we're highly adaptave by nature
<Lazarus_Starchaser> just not "cooperative" by nature