42 replies to this topic

[Bruce Klein]

Gamma Ray Burst Threat
Immortality Institute Online Chat :: Sun. Apr 27th 2003
Location: Cyberspace - http://www.imminst.org/chat

On Apr 27th 2003 at 8:00 PM EST the Immortality Institute will hold a moderated chat to discuss the potential for damaging gamma ray bursts. A large scale gamma ray burst would leave half the earth totally devoid of life. We'll explore the impact of such a burst, plans to monitor such events, and possible scenarios to avoid such a large scale catastrophe.

CHAT SUMMARY

Discussion Contributors:
Mechanus (Nus)
Michael Haislip (celendra :: http://www.transhumaninstitute.com)
Kenneth Sills (Lazarus Long)
Michael Anissimov(MichaelA)
Ryan Bates (XxDoubleHelixX)
Edititing:
Bruce J. Klein (BJKlein)

Topic: Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) Threat:

What are GRB's:
Gamma Rays are the most energetic form of light. GRB's are...


Why should Immortalist worry about them?
Researchers have suggested that one or more mass extinctions during the past few hundred million years might have been triggered by supernovae, and that it might happen again.

The flash of heat and light might flash-burn anything not in the shade, heating the atmosphere would cause big winds. The air would be much hotter for weeks, as hot as an oven depending on the distance. This would affect the other side of the Earth eventually.

But there is no consensus on whether gamma ray bursts are actually linked to supernovae, and there's even less agreement over how dangerous they might be.

Still, NASA scientists acknowledge the threat, describing it this way on a GRB informational Web page:

A gamma ray burst originating in our neck of the Milky Way, within a thousand light-years or so, could lead to mass extinction on Earth. Gamma rays interacting in the Earth's atmosphere would burn away the ozone layer, allowing deadly ultraviolet radiation to penetrate through the atmosphere. The influx of radiation would lead to widespread cancer and other diseases.

Another worry are so-called hypernovae, which are related to mysterious gamma-ray bursts in deep space. Astronomers believe these are similar to supernovae but that a beam of concentrated energy, emanating along the star's axis of rotation, happens to be pointed at Earth.

Though the new study did not look into the hypernovae hazard, Gehrels said it's likely for one aimed at Earth to occur once every couple of hundred million years somewhere in our galaxy, most of the time at a very large distance from our planet, however.

http://www.space.com...s_010522-1.html

The first GRB's were discovered by accident, in 1967 by U.S. satellites deployed to monitor possible violations of the nuclear test ban treaty.

Where do GRB's come from?
Nearly a year ago, two separate studies firmly linked GRBs to exploding stars called supernovae. But one thing has continued to puzzle astronomers: The bursts seem to come in two distinct varieties, those lasting less than two seconds and those lasting longer.

A new study of 1,972 bursts on file (collected by NASA's Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, which was de-orbited in 2000) supports the growing consensus that the short bursts come from dramatic mergers of black holes or other massive objects, like neutron stars. Computer modeling of these mergers suggests tremendous radiation would be unleashed as matter is squashed between the colliding objects. Mergers occur on a far greater scale when two galaxies meet up, their central, super massive black holes eventually falling together.

The longer bursts, according to the new study, appear to originate from the biggest supernovae, explosions of stars that are more than 30 times the mass of our Sun. Such explosions leave some material behind, which collapses back into what's known as a stellar black hole, theory holds. These dense objects pack the mass of several suns into a region no bigger than a city. http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/burst_blackholes_030305.html

ImmInst members put their collective heads together to discuss the possibility of GRB's and potential survival solutions. The following are in order of preference, 1. being most preferred.

Two ideas predominated - Prediction and Protection. Both are equally important, however, if we're unable to find success at prediction, we may have to resort to total protection alternatives.

Prediction:
As suggested by Kenneth Sills, if we can successfully model the probabilities and examine real time examples in the cosmos, we should be able to predict when and where a gamma ray burst will come from.

Apr 2003 Related Article:
Supernova Warning: First Ever Accurate Forecast of Exploding Star
http://story.news.ya..._exploding_star


Idea: The Fermi paradox may be explained by GRB.
If life is wiped out every few million years by GRB's this may explain why we've yet to see other intelligent creatures in the universe.

Protection: Assuming we can't predict a blast:

1. Harden the Ionosphere
This solution is held as the most viable, especially in the short run. Since our atmosphere already shields us from harmful rays, we'd be scaling up the effectiveness by enhancing the existing natural system.

What is the ionosphere: 'that part of the upper atmosphere where free electrons occur in sufficient density to have an appreciable influence on the propagation of radio frequency electromagnetic waves' (http://www.ngdc.noaa...O/ionontro.html)

The ionosphere can be excited by simple radio waves. HAARP
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/ is already undertaking such projects to 'excite' the ionosphere.

2. Preempt The Burst Source
This solution would require advanced technology, and an intrepid spirit, but in theory we may be able to send probes out to hunt down and neutralize or push the GRB source away from our solar system.

3. Dyson Shielding
This would involve a huge project, however, it may prove to be a viable option if nanotech allows for easy manufacture of large scale protective barriers around the solar system. The idea involves creating a shield, which would serve the inverse purpose of the original idea proposed by Dyson called the Dyson Sphere. A Dyson Shield would wrap around the solar system providing a layer of protection against gamma ray bursts. It may prove more viable to create a Dyson Shield Cloud out of a Gamma Ray Absorbent Material, preferably 'smart' nano-enhanced material.

4. Upload to Safer Substrate
This is a transhumanist solution what would require advanced technology to upload our selves onto a possibly networked system with redundant architecture.

Assuming we're able to predict a GRB's:

6. Light Speed Escape Pods
A difficult proposition to say the least, but worth noting. If we're able to have some lead time, say more than a few minutes, and if we've developed space ships with the ability of traveling near the speed of light, we may be able to outrun the strongest portion of the blast, allowing the distance to provide the shield

7. Move to Opposite side of Earth
This would be a short term solution. The viability is here now for implementation, however, the future well being of the whole earth after the GRB may make this option mute.

8. Live Under Ocean/Ground
Self explanatory and similar scenario to #7. But if we already have uploading capabilities, this may be a way to add protection.

Members came away from the discussion with the shared understand that gamma ray burst do present a real and dangerous threat to life. However, with improved detection and better modeling and predictability, we can prepare. The threat may not be as high on the list of immediate concerns because of the long interval between possible strikes, however, it's never to early to start thinking about possible solutions.


CHAT ARCHIVE::

<BJKlein> Topic: Gamma Ray Burst Threat
<BJKlein> We're open to discussion...
<BJKlein> but i'll start with a few basics:
<BJKlein> Why Talk About Gamma Ray Bursts?
<BJKlein> Because they can wipe out 1/2 of the earths population.
<BJKlein> and in so doing.. probably kill the other 1/2
<BJKlein> in due process over a certain amount of time (still being debated)
<BJKlein> So, let's say.. a gamma ray burst hit the Eastern Hemisphere...
<BJKlein> we lucky guys in the Americas would survive..
<jubungalord> How fast would the earth.... bodies of water ect.... heat up
<Mermaid> there is no such thing as 'eastern hemisphere' as far as i know
<Mermaid> its only north and south
<BJKlein> however, very quickly our environment would change.. and change big time
<Mermaid> what is the duration of a 'gamma ray hit'
<BJKlein> Eastern Hemisphere
<BJKlein> The half of the earth comprising Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia.
<Mermaid> its relative BJ..but its only a term..i get the idea
<BJKlein> duration of a blast anywhere btwn... 1min and 10mins..
<BJKlein> plus or minus...
<Mermaid> and is the 'hit' spread out or precise?
<jubungalord> CAn they pas directly throught the earth
<BJKlein> it's like sunshine..
<BJKlein> it will totally hit one side of the globe
<Nus> how often do gamma ray bursts happen; what is the probability one will kill us in the next 50 years? 50.000? etc
<BJKlein> if you're not hiding under the ocean or underground.. like a few hundred feet or more.. you'll die
<BJKlein> totally unknown...
<Mermaid> if its unknown..how real is this 'threat'
<BJKlein> we'll sorry I don't have the guesses
<celindra> Very brief (lasting under 100 milliseconds) gamma ray bursts we detect may stem from microscopic-scale black holes exploding throughout space. There
<celindra> could be 10 billion such micro-holes distributed within every few cubic lightyears of space-- which means one could pass through our solar system any time.
<celindra> If this theory is correct, several of these will detonate-- each with the force of a 100 billion megaton nuclear bomb-- every year in this same volume of
<celindra> space.
<BJKlein> but we can make predictions of course.. to a degree of probability...
<BJKlein> but I don't know
<BJKlein> thanks celindra..
<Mermaid> i dont know what to say
<Nus> would gamma ray bursts kill non-biological beings?
<Nus> (for if I'm uploaded, you see)
<BJKlein> I would suspect so..
<celindra> Depends on the architecture
<celindra> Radiation isn't good for electronics
<BJKlein> thanks goodness someone knows
<BJKlein> to the blast and effect is proportional directly to the ammount of energy.....
<BJKlein> a large enough blast would obliterate anything..
<celindra> We can add gamma ray bursts to the list of cosmic apocalypse scenarios -- false vacuum decay, asteroid impact, tc
<celindra> etc
<BJKlein> yeh.. doe's someone have the master list?
<BJKlein> wta is talking about starting a existential threats group for such purposes
<celindra> Heh ... is there a master list?
<Lukian> lmao
<Nus> thunderbolt singularities are my favorite
<BJKlein> I know nick has written a paper re such events
<Mermaid> what is false vacuum delay?
<BJKlein> nick bostrom
<celindra> http://www.nickbostr...tial/risks.html
<Nus> Mermaid: if the universe is not really the lowest energy state but a "metastable" energy state (that's just lower than its "surroundings") then it could decay to the real vacuum, and everything would go boom
<Nus> instant big crunch
<Nus> , I think.
<celindra> Right
<Mermaid> i see
<celindra> And we would never know it was happening
<Nus> I know there are some versions that give an instant big crunch, at least
<Nus> right
<Nus> same for the thunderbolt singularity
<BJKlein> gamma ray burst are one suggested reason for the fermi paradox
<Nus> I doubt it could be the full explanation
<Nus> well, perhaps it could
<Nus> if everyone always gets toasted before (intelligent) life evolves
<BJKlein> hmm..
<XxDoubleHelixX> you know we can't correct our posts..
<XxDoubleHelixX> heh
<BJKlein> nick has excluded gamma and others from his list because they don't represent 'global' terminal threats:
<BJKlein> solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray bursts, galactic center outbursts, supervolcanos, loss of biodiversity, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility,
<BJKlein> XxDoubleHelixX, yeh working on it :/
<XxDoubleHelixX> ok, i was just making sure it wasnt just me
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Hi everyone I am just checking in early so I can read teh discussion after I get out of the shower, go ahead and start exploring the Universe without me
<XxDoubleHelixX> no prob
<Lazarus_Starchaser> but I promise to catch up
<BJKlein> hola Lazarus_Starchaser
<Lazarus_Starchaser> I got tired of the old "long" so I thought I would change into something more appropriate for the occassion lol
<Lazarus_Starchaser> While I am away why don't you all just get started and see where this all goes
<BJKlein> let's hope star dosn't go super nova
<Nus> "The possibility that we are living in a false vacuum has never been a cheering one to contemplate. Vacuum decay is the ultimate ecological catastrophe; ... after vacuum decay not only is life as we know it impossible, so is chemistry as we know it.
<Lazarus_Starchaser> If it is our Sun you are talking about then I agree anything else is years away
<Nus> However, one could always draw stoic comfort from the possibility that perhaps in the course of time the new vacuum would sustain, if not life as we know it, then at least some structures capable of knowing joy. This possibility has now been eliminated."
<Nus> (quote from the article that proved the instant big crunch for vacuum decay)
<BJKlein> link
<Nus> I typed that from a book
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Isn't the idea of "stoic comfort " an oxymoron?
<XxDoubleHelixX> so we have a "ending" theory that has proof to make it fact?
<Nus> no, no; this is just *if* vacuum decay happens
<Nus> which it probably won't
<Lazarus_Starchaser> vacuums suck
<BJKlein> and .. why is 'capable of knowing joy' such a hot commodity.. (sorry off topic)
<Mermaid> heh
*** Disconnected
-irc.lucifer.com- *** Looking up your hostname...
-irc.lucifer.com- *** Found your hostname, cached
-irc.lucifer.com- *** Checking Ident
-irc.lucifer.com- *** No Ident response
-irc.lucifer.com- *** Notice -- motd was last changed at 7/3/2002 12:03
-irc.lucifer.com- *** Notice -- Please read the motd if you haven't read it
-Global- [Logon News - Mar 15 2002] To obtain help on the system, client software or to locate an operator please join #operhelp
*** Attempting to rejoin...
*** Rejoined channel #immortal
-ChanServ- Church of Virus :: http://virus.lucifer.com
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Oh oh did I break something?
<celindra> Yes
<BJKlein> probably the effects of a solar flare burster
<celindra> We're being irradiated right now!
<BJKlein> our dna is suffering...
<XxDoubleHelixX> repairs about 10000 bases a day
<BJKlein> but it suffers much more from glycation .. free radical damage
<Lazarus_Starchaser> I see no one is in the mood for a little antigrav levity in the face of anihilation is definitely frowned upon, even if we have to wait for the puch line for a few centuries or even millennia, we've been irradiated from teh get go how do you think mutations got started?
<BJKlein> XxDoubleHelixX, how many are damaged each day?
<XxDoubleHelixX> how many cells?
<BJKlein> dna base pairs
<Lazarus_Starchaser> mutation is bad 99% but you can tahnk the 1% for every sucess we've got to show and the fact we are still here
<XxDoubleHelixX> I can only give you that figure of how many bases are replaced a day
<XxDoubleHelixX> which is 10k
<Lazarus_Starchaser> the 1% of mutation is responsible for at least 50% of successful evolution
<XxDoubleHelixX> Oh per cell i mean
<Lazarus_Starchaser> the other 50% is probably just random chance
<BJKlein> ahh.. thanks
<XxDoubleHelixX> heh
<XxDoubleHelixX> I just posted about an experiment upregulating a protein used in repair
<XxDoubleHelixX> but the results were negative life extention
<XxDoubleHelixX> so, they are going to have to try the whole protein system
<Nus> that's a term I'm going to remember
<Nus> "negative life extension"
<Mermaid> upregulating or negative life extension?
<Mermaid> heh
<XxDoubleHelixX> Well i ment as in no increase or decrease
<Nus> I see
<XxDoubleHelixX> course I dont know why the person chose that specific protein
<XxDoubleHelixX> it only cuts out the bases (endonuc)
<XxDoubleHelixX> we should be looking at the ones that check for the damage
<Lazarus_Starchaser> heh, I thought you folks were going to discuss celestial events and cosmic cataclysms? Not DNA, all carcinogens are mutagens but not all mutagens are carcinogens, cosmic rays work that way too
<XxDoubleHelixX> <shrug>
<Lukian> rotfl
<XxDoubleHelixX> sorry, im done
<Lazarus_Starchaser> good at least someone is getting thejoke :(
* Lukian pats XxDoubleHelixX
* BJKlein bows to the new chat snipper
<BJKlein> So, question...
<BJKlein> any brilliant ideas on how to avoid death from gamma bursts..
<Lazarus_Starchaser> stand in the shade
<celindra> Won't help in the long run
<Lazarus_Starchaser> If it is raining waves then get an umbrella
<BJKlein> Escape Pods
<BJKlein> Dig A Hole
<BJKlein> Live Under the Ocean
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Where are you runing off to Bj?
<BJKlein> don't know
<BJKlein> nowhere yet
<Nus> travel to potential gammaraybursters and defuse them?
<celindra> Those are all short term solutions -- biosphere collapse will kill the survivors
<BJKlein> i'm trying to imagine what will happen to the bioshpere...
<Lazarus_Starchaser> If sufficient energy can pass throught he entire Earth then only a contained and coherent plasma field that blocks passage of the radiation would work but first forecast the threats
<BJKlein> one side of the planet.. dead, decaying, viod of biomass..
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Know the direction and probable strength and then worry about how to shield the effects
<XxDoubleHelixX> how many rads of radiation are we talking here?
<XxDoubleHelixX> 1.5 mill?
* BJKlein googles
<Lazarus_Starchaser> The moon when eclipsing the Sun makes a good shield, give it a magnetosphere large enough and we could ride the wake if it is timed right but the sacale of the problem is not beyond human perception
<Lazarus_Starchaser> now play children, that was scale* btw
<Nus> I don't think we can know where GRBs come from in advance; can we?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> be back later
<Lukian> k Lazarus_Starchaser
<BJKlein> not from what i've read...
<BJKlein> we haven't seen one as it happend yet..
<deego> what is GRB?
<BJKlein> gamma ray bursts
<deego> oh
<deego> sorry
<deego> thanks
<BJKlein> np
<BJKlein> we can detect the after glow of x-ray
<celindra> It's hypotheized that a neutrino burst precedes GRB by a few seconds -- although that's not much of a warning
<BJKlein> "Gamma rays are distinguished from X rays by their origin. Gamma rays are produced by nuclear transitions while X-rays are produced by energy transitions due to accelerating electrons"
<BJKlein> http://www.wikipedia...Gamma_radiation
<BJKlein> build lead houses
<celindra> And stay in them for aeons
<Nus> build a Dyson sphere made of lead
<celindra> And block the sun
<celindra>
<celindra> Devil's advocate ...
<BJKlein> how thick..
<MichaelA> you could leave a gap in the sphere at the elliptic
<Nus> what's wrong with blocking the sun?
<Nus> (ecliptic) but why would you want to?
<MichaelA> not much, unless someone wants it
<MichaelA> with our current level of technology, we would die
<MichaelA> but eventually, if we survive, the sun probably would be considered a horrible waste
<BJKlein> wiki again: "In terms of ionization, gamma radiation interacts with matter via three main processes: the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, and pair production."
<celindra> Let's say we know a GRB will happen this time next year. What will you do to survive?
<MichaelA> the opportunity cost of leaving all that energy in one place is enormous
<Nus> oh, you mean build a Dyson sphere inside Earth's orbit?
<Nus> a lead one? and live on the Earth?
<Nus> that would be completely pointless!
<BJKlein> if a GRB happened next year.. we'd probably all need to move to opposite side of the earth.. and calculate the effect and stockpile food, etc.
<celindra> Basic survivalism
<MichaelA> it would be, Nus, but it was humorous briefly when Mike brought it up
<MichaelA> or, hm, you did
<MichaelA> my bad
<XxDoubleHelixX> I couldnt find anything on how many rads it would produce, how well.
<XxDoubleHelixX> how+oh
<Mermaid> later
<Nus> I meant a normal Dyson sphere, around the sun
<Nus> butnevermind
<MichaelA> Dyson Clouds are more practical than Dyson Spheres, btw
<BJKlein> if we could predict a dyson only on one side
<BJKlein> or.. find a way to counter the rays not by sheilding.. but by counter engery waves?
<celindra> Actually, BJ, the ionosphere could conceivably be "hardened"
<celindra> Check out the HAARP project
<BJKlein> http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/
<Nus> I'm fairly sure you can't stop photons with an energy wave
<celindra> You can stop UV rays
<celindra> And other rays
<Nus> maybe if you could make them interfere destructively; but you don't have that precision
<Nus> how?
<celindra> The upper atmoshpere does it all the time
<BJKlein> let's say we had nanobots.. on an outer ring.. sending info to a lower ring..
<Nus> celindra: yes, but not by sending energy waves
<BJKlein> to exactly counter the photons..
<Nus> ah, never mind
<Nus> you were talking about something else
<Nus> BJKlein, the info would have to go faster than light if I understand you correctly
<Nus> gamma rays go at light speed
<celindra> It's not an energy wave, it'sm exciting the already-existing ionoshpere to do quadruple-duty
<BJKlein> smart matter movements .. yeh.. speed of light problem
<BJKlein> haven't we figured out how to send info faster than light yet?
<celindra> Nope
<celindra> Unless you count tachyons which haven't been verified
<Nus> perhaps if we can find exotic matter :/
<BJKlein> ex: http://plus.maths.or...asterThanLight/
<MichaelA> what do people think of the Casmir Effect
<celindra> Casmir is well-acccepted
<BJKlein> 'The attractive force between two surfaces in a vacuum - first predicted by Hendrik Casimir over 50 years ago - could affect everything from micromachines to unified theories of nature'
<BJKlein> http://physicsweb.or...le/world/15/9/6
<Nus> there are "quantum inequalities" that prevent it from being used too much IIRC
<Nus> but yes, it's well-accepted
<MichaelA> does it have to be mirrors (as the article that Bruce posted seems to imply) or can it be any metal plates?
<celindra> I've always heard of metal plates ....
<Nus> I thought it could just be any surface
* Nus googles
<celindra> But I think it can be any surface
<Nus>
<Nus> The Casimir effect is a small attractive force which acts between two close parallel uncharged conducting plates, It is due to quantum vacuum fluctuations of the electromagnetic field.
<Nus> so they have to be conducting
<Nus> metal would work
<MichaelA> gotcha
<BJKlein> "However, vacuum fluctuations are not some abstraction of a physicist's mind. They have observable consequences that can be directly visualized in experiments on a microscopic scale. For example, an atom in an excited state will not remain there infinitely long, but will return to its ground state by spontaneously emitting a photon. "
* MichaelA must afk now unfortunately
<BJKlein> seya
<MichaelA> Haldane thingy
<BJKlein> go go go!
<MichaelA> bye for a while
<Nus> byebye
<BJKlein> so to recap...
<BJKlein> ideas for avoiding death:
<BJKlein> 1. dig a hole
<BJKlein> 2. dyson idea
<BJKlein> 3. predict and move accordingly
<BJKlein> 4. lead houses
<BJKlein> 5. live under the ocean
<Nus> how long a time do you have in advance to predict them?
<BJKlein> 6. escape pod
<BJKlein> as of now.. no time I would guess..
<Nus> but do they give any signal before gamma-ing?
<Nus> at all?
<celindra> neutrinos
<celindra> About 10 seconds before
<celindra>
<BJKlein> ahh.. nice
<Nus> keep your calculator handy then
<Utnapishtim> Are there any estimates as to the likelihood of such a burst occuring
<BJKlein> 7. neutrino detector
<Utnapishtim> in any given year
<BJKlein> 8. upload quick time
<celindra> (upload into a radiation-proof form)
<BJKlein> Utnapishtim, from what i've read.. millions of yrs
<Nus> killing any potential gamma bursters in advance would also be a solution if possible
<BJKlein> 100mill +.. could explain the fermi paradox
<Utnapishtim> so the chance in any given year is millions to one?
<celindra> Of course, Fermi paradox would be explained by a finite universe as well ...
<BJKlein> 8. preempt GRP sources
<Nus> celindra: a finite and small universe
<BJKlein> sory 9.
<celindra> BJ: don't forget ultra-exciting the ionosphere
<Utnapishtim> I am trying to get a handle on the frequency of gamma ray bursts
<Utnapishtim> so I can gauge the threat level they represent
<BJKlein> ahh 10. ionosphere hardening
<celindra> I think there's about one every night that is detectable by astronomers
<celindra> Far far away
<BJKlein> yeh.. the burst are high energy.. so in effect there relatively rare events
<Utnapishtim> Any ststistical analysis been done on the threat to human life in the short to medium term
<celindra> Number 9 and 10 are preferrable
<celindra> Not really
<celindra> Not enough known about them
<Utnapishtim> relatively rare being what.. In gauging how seriosuly we should take this the orders of magnitude involved are improtant
<celindra> Odds are we'll get near a burst within 1 million years
<celindra> Short term, I think the odds are small
<Utnapishtim> It would seem that the risk would need to be nonneglible to devote a nonneglibigle amount of time to the prob
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Celindra the predictive aspects of Bursts are being overlooked
<Utnapishtim> It seems to high a quality problem for us to be addressing right now...
<Lazarus_Starchaser> btw i am back
<Utnapishtim> Lazarus: Are you Lazarus Long?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> and I read back as far as metal plating
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Is the Pope polich?
<celindra> No, but he's Polish.
<Lazarus_Starchaser> make that polish
<Utnapishtim> cool... Nicve to see you again!
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Listen I took a shower and came up with two methodolof=gies that are both within the scope of human endeavor within the time alloted
<Lazarus_Starchaser> methodolgies
<Lazarus_Starchaser> It isn't that comlpicated a problem
<Lazarus_Starchaser> yes the risks are high but all we would need is consensus among humans
<Lazarus_Starchaser> now that IS a PROBLEM!!!
<Utnapishtim> I think that resources and intellectuial energy devoted to a problem that is as relatively unlikely as a civilisation decimating gamma ray burst is not the best plan of action
<celindra> Utna -- GRBs are only one of many cosmic threats
<Lazarus_Starchaser> well t is worth the intellectual effort but I think panic is highly uncalled for
<Utnapishtim> when it seems that the amount of energy/resources we devote to existential threats should be proportional to the danger they represent
<BJKlein> GRB Survival Ideas
<BJKlein> 1. Harden the Ionosphere
<BJKlein> 2. Preempt The Burst Source
<BJKlein> 3. Dyson Sheilding
<BJKlein> 4. Upload to Safer Susbstrate
<BJKlein> 5. Neutrion Detecor (10 sec lead time)
<BJKlein> 6. Light Speed Escape Pods
<BJKlein> 7. Move to Opposite side of Earth
<BJKlein> 8. Live Under Ocean/Ground
<Lazarus_Starchaser> be fair Utna lets examine the problem seriously
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Number one is doable and so is creating a barrier in space occluding the inbound energy
<BJKlein> ordered by preference
<XxDoubleHelixX> So, this would shoot out a high ammount of radiation, would you say that I could be like a nuke like rad level?
<XxDoubleHelixX> i=It
<BJKlein> yes.. nuclear bombs are good examples
<Nus> light speed escape pods probably won't work
<BJKlein> same radiation effect
<celindra> A single GRB generates the equivalent of several million nukes
<Nus> if you only have 10 second head start
<celindra> But it dissipates through space
<BJKlein> Nus.. that example is implying a better detection method
<Nus> aha
<Nus> several million? it has to be more
<Nus> or not?
<celindra> Several billion I mean
<Lazarus_Starchaser> All it would take to accomplish number one is creating a series of Superconductive Tori at straegic points around teh planet withteh goal of stimulating the core to accelerate rotational velocity only slightly but we could increase the strength ofhte magnetosphere considerably that way
<Nus> I would still guess it has to be more
<Lazarus_Starchaser> the 10 second number is false
<Lazarus_Starchaser> let us examine probabilities
<Nus> what number is correct?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> start with the closet star systems what is their probability of going nova and what do we have fro likely energy output in our direction?
<Lazarus_Starchaser> example if Sirius was about to go nova right now the energy fromthe blast won't reach us for almost nine years
* Nus suspects someone has already done this calculation and it can be found on Google
<Nus> yes, but we wouldn't *know* nine years in advance
<Nus> or is that not what you're saying?
<celindra> We would know as soon as the blast wave hit
<Lazarus_Starchaser> now all we have to do is observe Sirius closely and determine with respect to the physics involved the likelihood of if and when the star goes nova and then plan around teh prediction
<BJKlein> yeh... it seems we should be able to predict
<Nus> I think it would be impossible to predict with that much accuracy
<Lazarus_Starchaser> we are already looking into the past and have a means of analyzing the threat, these aren't some mystery alien about the come out of the shadows and devour us
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Yes actually it is
<BJKlein> with a high degree of accuracy, if we had a model
* Nus is going to sleep
<Nus> byebye everyone
<celindra> Yes, but the "current" observations are really nine years old, so that model better be good
<celindra> Bye
<BJKlein> seya Nus
<Utnapishtim> bye
<Lazarus_Starchaser> we are getting a level of understanding through just Chandra and Hubble that makes all astronomy of the past pale in comparison
<Lazarus_Starchaser> c-ya nus
<Lazarus_Starchaser> humans they have such short attentions spans that is the real threat
<MichaelA> Laz: yep
<MichaelA> the root problem is always the humans, unfortunately
<Lazarus_Starchaser> Our understanding of celestial mechanics is advancing almost faster than genetics yet even fewer people understand that
<MichaelA> too bad perfection doesn't come for free with self-awareness
<MichaelA> I don't think it is, there isn't *that* much to do with celestial mechanics
<MichaelA> they move according to Newton and GR
<Lazarus_Starchaser> like I said the social dilemma of preparing for a Burst is more dificult than the tech
<Lazarus_Starchaser> but that is a separate topic
<BJKlein> luckly we're highly adaptave by nature
<Lazarus_Starchaser> just not "cooperative" by nature

[Lazarus Long]

This threat also directly bears on the importance of "shielding" and the known and vital Earth based shield is the magnetosphere and then Ozone layers. We already are a spaceship.

Recently we have the first instance of successful Supernova Prediction so there is coming the ability to predict and thus prepare for such events. We can for example find where in the Cosmos such events have occurred more recently then the light has had time to reach us and this is how the predictive models can work. So we are not at the "mercy" of events if we have the knowelge and foresight to altr our actions on a large scale.

Supernova Warning: First Ever Accurate Forecast of Exploding Star
http://story.news.ya..._exploding_star


This even overlaps the Star Wars issue on investment in missiles versus regional shielding with various "Bottled Plasmas".

[Lazarus Long]

Why don't you add this looming threat for eventual handling and "hot" tidbit from today's news.

Russian Minister Fears Collapse of Chernobyl Shield
http://us.rd.yahoo.c...ar_chernobyl_dc

[Lazarus Long]

Here is a parenthetic mythic aspect of what you are asking to discuss; the gamma ray burst, and the Relativity of Light as a temporal measure lend a form of truth to astrology as a predictive science.

This is because of the idea that events as we "see them” have already occurred relative to our "moment of observation". We are "looking into the past" as we gaze upon the night sky imagining our futures.

So keeping calendars and knowing how to predict eclipses that influence mass behavior for those that need to know the weather to grow crops does lend a power to class of scientists that make that possible. I always marvel at Keppler's story and the quest to hear the music of the spheres and predict he perfect future.

Keppler was an honest astrologer, a true avatar and student of the night sky. His services of celestial measure, his "ephemeredes" were of world renown and he was sent from court to court around Europe and the near east on demand of Kings and Courts to the level of the Vatican. His search for truth and understanding of the Principles of his Craft along with his long friendship with Tycho Brahe paved the way for the Western Renaissance of Astronomy and Physics.

[Lazarus Long]

Oh a minor correction to the above statement, I said: "class of scientists" that really should have read, "class of priest scientists" lol .

And as to a thought experiment imagine being able to test presumptions of Relativity and String Theory at the same time using Gamma Ray Bursts.

Here is how and if anyone of you writes this up for credit without at least inviting me to the party I will haunt you for millennium to come [ggg].

When you are looking through a telescope you are looking backwards in time not a static object that distance and our short attention spans makes it appear. You are perceiving a "live image".

Second, the imagine a telescope so precise that the focal image of an object can be reflected back at the source in such a manner as to remain discreet and precisely polarized (or even massively randomly diffused as in the light reflected off a cloud) though for the purpose of measuring a string effect we want "light" that is "highly polarized" as in the kind emanating from some types of Quasars. Now predict how this light will behave as passes through or near a variety of very large masses, such as black holes, galaxies, and significantly nearer though smaller bodies, such as the Moon, Sun, and Planets. What is changing?

Yes, we understand that it is Space/Time which is bending at various moments to the angle of the source, but what is that?

Is the light adding time to reach us? Logically yes.

In other words we are percieving a visual echo of events. So why is that important?

Because it represents a test of time line theory. Because the "echo" is really its own original. All it has done is taken "longer" to reach us because it has travelled a greater distance.

The light that reaches us by the shortest most direct route has taken "less time", so the qualities of reflected/refracted light from the same source by taking extra time amounts to a distinct qualitatative difference temporally but not in terms of specific "real time of the image source" (local time) hence as an observer we are watching the same events play out a second relative time, as when we "hear" an echo, but events should possess the same sequence and the same time between occurrences" for both images unless something else acts upon the light.

There must be a "quantitative diffraction gradient" that is predetermined by the physics that causes events described by the echoed imaged to be perceived by a different metric or there cannot be a different patterned rate to the signal..

The results of such a measure would allow the "measure of variations in "rates of time" for regions of space as it gets for example closer to an event horizon in the vicinity of a Black hole without getting trapped, or as a measure of galactic mass as the light of the object passes through it.

But back to the racing train issue again, imagine being able to look out into the sky and see our own past reflected in a polarized patch of space that we can imagine perfect mirror in. Say in the vicinity of Sirius roughly only 8.6 Light years away, so the turn around trip for light is only 17+ years. This mirror is one that allows our history to be reflected back at us with a given distance back in time measured by how far away the mirror is. Now imagine a telescope so precise that it not only can focus the light coming from the distance to the mirror, but the distance of reflected light back to its source, you can see back into our own events with such a telescope by analyzing the image in the mirror so to speak.

The rules for how that image behaves are where we encounter "string Theory" for it is where the discreet image described by the light that leaves events and then travels a given distance is nevertheless held discreetly together as an image even though influenced by the universe it passes through (filtered) and contains a coherency for the entire trip.

It is also a way to travel in comparative time. For the light of "same" events that reaches us at different intervals must reflect a different temporal meter and this different should be detectable by measuring the "meter of the frequency" the echoed events possess in relation to the original event from first observation. Time is moving at different measurable rates for the two space/time differentials if the meter between output signals is not precisely the same between say modulations of the signal or a given event should possess the same modulation of signal in BOTH the echo and original source.

Back to the beginning, we don't possess a perfect mirror, but we do possess a given distance to other galaxies where we can observe and record bursts of light emanating from a source and a reflective cloud some given distance away from the source. If we find such sources close enough to one another to measure the reflected light against records in our archives for the original signal then we can perform the experiment I am suggesting even with a weaker mirror as long as we can filter the effects of the cloud utilizing a fractel gradient and spectroscopic factor for the cloud body itself.

For example a cloud body only ten to twenty years distant from the "burst source will receive its light ten to twenty years after the original event but the light coming from the reflection is making the relative trip to us at almost the same amount of time as the original, only displaced by a few decades. This would allow us to start using light gathered now from the reflections of these bursts and compare it against what is in our archives as a test of what I am saying about temporal/spatial mechanics and "string Theory" to predict how discreet packets of light will behave while travelling through the Universe.

Any of you that are serious cosmologists feel free to open a topic on this and I hope to get some feedback from any of you that understand what I am trying to talk about and before we tackle the necessary math I would just like some response on the "model" because I think it is as elegant as Michaelson/Morely and I would love to co-publish this with any willing astrophysicists among you out there.

Edited by Lazarus Long, 23 April 2003 - 05:55 PM.

[Bruce Klein]

Supernova Can Cause Gamma-ray Burst
April 4, 2002 08:00 CST



For years scientists have detected gamma ray bombardments in Earth's atmosphere but their origin has remained somewhat mysterious. Now a group of astronomers from Great Britain using XMM-Newton, the European Space Agency's X-ray space telescope, may have tied the bursts to the explosion of a star, called a supernova.

According to the group, gas streaming from the source of one burst they observed bore the signature of a supernova -- a mixture of elements including magnesium, silicon sulfur, argon and calcium streaming away from the source of the burst at one tenth the speed of light. Such material is typical of a supernova, during which a massive star's inner core implodes as its outer layers are blown off.

Above image: The remnant, named E0102-72, is the aftermath of a star that exploded in a nearby galaxy known as the Small Magellanic Cloud. Image credit: NASA. Click image to enlarge.

This gas is part of an expanding shell of matter produced shortly before the burst by the collapse of the star, according to James Reeves, of the University of Leicester, UK, and colleagues.

Gamma ray bursts last at the most, minutes, not long enough for detailed telescopic observations. But many bursts also produce an afterglow of X-rays, visible light and sometimes radio waves for several days. This afterglow contains hints to what caused the burst in the first place.

Technically called 'GRB 011211', it was first detected on 11 December 2001 at 19:09:21 (Universal Time), by the Italian-Dutch satellite BeppoSAX. The burst lasted for 270 seconds -- the longest one observed by the satellite. A few hours afterwards, when a first analysis confirmed that a burst had indeed been registered, the BeppoSAX team alerted the rest of the astronomical community.

Right image: This artist's impression illustrates how a gamma-ray burst can flare dramatically over a short time period. Gamma-ray bursts can occur as often as several time a day but they last for no longer than a couple of minutes. There is no way to predict when or where they will next occur. Click image to enlarge.

ESA's XMM-Newton arrived on the 'scene of the crime' 11 hours after the original event. If XMM-Newton astronomers had reacted five hours later it would have been too late; but they were lucky and could study the afterglow when it was still 7 million times brighter (in X-rays) than a whole galaxy. It was the third time that XMM-Newton tried to pinpoint a gamma-ray burst afterglow -- the results of the previous two observations were inconclusive.

On this occasion the observations revealed two important facts: first, the material in the source was moving quickly towards Earth, at 10% of the speed of light; and second, the chemical analysis of this material showed that it had to be the remnant of a supernova explosion.

"We were seeing a spherical shell of material ejected from a very recent supernova, heated by the gamma-ray burst. The fact that the material was coming in our direction means that the sphere was expanding," explains Schartel.

Left image: Nearly two years in orbit and over 1200 observations so far, XMM-Newton is now preparing a second round of observations. Click image to enlarge.

XMM detected large amounts of magnesium, silicon, sulphur, argon and calcium, but very little iron. This is the kind of material a massive star would produce during its latest stages of evolution, right before exploding as a supernova.

Nuclear reactions in the stars' cores fuse light chemical elements into heavier ones, a process that generates the energy needed by the stars to shine; different elements are synthesised at each stage of the stars' evolution. The supernova explosion would have ejected this material into the surrounding environment, producing the sphere subsequently illuminated by the gamma-ray burst afterglow seen by XMM-Newton.

Astronomers could even measure the size of the sphere: 10 thousand million kilometres in radius. With that in hand, and knowing the velocity of the material, they could also estimate that the supernova explosion had occurred a few days earlier.

Such a timescale is consistent with the fact that low amounts of iron were detected, because this element forms in the material ejected by the supernova only about two months after the explosion itself.

On the other hand, the reason why the hypothesis of the neutron-star-collision can be ruled out also stems from this data.

Right image: NASA artistic rendition of a gamma-ray burst. Click image for large animated image of the phenomenon.

"Such an event wouldn't have expelled sufficient quantities of matter (magnesium etc.) into the surrounding medium to explain what we see," says Schartel.

The relatively low iron abundance could also not be explained by the neutron-star-collision theory. Stars only become neutron stars after exploding as supernova, but many years -- not just a few days -- are needed for the object to evolve from one stage to the other.

According to Fred Jansen, ESA's XMM-Newton project scientist, "this kind of study is possible because of the unprecedented collecting area and high sensitivity of XMM-Newton. The Earth's atmosphere prevents X-rays from being detected by ground-based instruments, and no other space telescope in operation could have performed an analysis of equal quality of this gamma-ray burst afterglow. We are now at least one step closer to solving the mystery of these energetic phenomena."

However, many questions are still open in the 'case of the gamma-ray bursts'. Why are all supernovae explosions not followed by a burst? What is the precise physical mechanism triggering the burst?

In October 2002, ESA will launch a space mission to address precisely these questions. ESA's International Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory, INTEGRAL, will be the most sensitive gamma-ray observatory ever launched, able to detect radiation from the most distant violent events.

Source: ESA; Nature

Cosmiverse Staff Writer

E-Mail this story to a friend

Post your thoughts on this story


Back to Today's Headlines









Producing Antibiotics in Space
Daily Mars Image -- Isidis Rim
Hydrogen-fed Bacteria May Populate the Universe
MODIS Captures Stunning Florida-Cuba Image
A Conversation with a Planet Hunter
Space Shuttle Atlantis to Launch Thursday
Giant Radio Telescope Tackles Black Holes
China Wants a Space Station, Too
Daily Mars Image -- Rim of Henry Crater
New Comet and Old Galaxy Light Up the Sky
NASA is Bad at Keeping Secrets
NASA Knows Where the Rain Came From
Chinese Taikonauts Ready for Action
Learning to Capture, Tame, and Manipulate Light
Record Breaking Atlantis Mission Launches this Week
Two Successful Launches for Ariane-4
More Images of Ice Shelf Breakaway
China's Shenzhou III Returns Safely to Earth
Daily Mars Image -- Ganges Chasma Landslide
Early Astronomers Determined Easter Dates
China Dust Disaster Imaged by NASA Spacecraft
Last Chance to See Comet Ikeya-Zhang
Mercury Orbiter Cleared for Takeoff
Daily Mars Image: Floor of Ganges Chasma
Atlantis to Deliver First ISS Truss
Astronomers Discover New Class of Objects
Plant Growth Experiment Heading to ISS
Did 10th Planet Collision Create the Moon?
Life's Building Blocks from Interstellar Space
Daily Mars Image: Gullied Craters
Chandra Finds Black Holes in Distant Quasars
Envisat Completes First Earth Check-up
New Theory Explains Jupiter's Auroras
Czechs Reclaim the Stars


Past Weeks' News Archives - Archives of past weeks' Daily Selected News Stories.



View Live NASA Space Cams - Courtesy of Kennedy Space Center



Type your email address in the box and click "Subscribe"
HTML Newsletter
Daily Weekly
Text Newsletter
Daily Weekly






Send this site to 5 Friends and be automatically entered to win $5000.00!
Your Name:
Your E-Mail:
Friend's Name:
Friend's E-Mail:



© 1999-2002 Cosmiverse.com. All Rights Reserved.
Cosmiverse Privacy Statement and Terms of Service
All other copyrights remain property of their respective owners.

[Lazarus Long]

This article isn't about Gamma Ray Bursts, but it is about something all us celestial students can apreciate and it is coming up soon, so just thought I would share.
Enjoy;)

http://story.news.ya...oming_may_15_16

Total Lunar Eclipse Coming May 15-16
Fri Apr 25, 9:46 AM ET Science - Space.com
By Joe Rao, SPACE.com

On the night of May 15-16, millions of eyes will be drawn skyward, where there will hang a mottled, coppery globe -- our Moon -- completely immersed in the long, tapering cone of shadow cast into space by Earth.

If the weather is clear, skywatchers across most of the Americas, Europe and Africa will have a view of one of nature's most beautiful spectacles: A total eclipse of the Moon.


Unlike a total eclipse of the Sun, which often requires an avid viewer to make a long journey in order to stand under the path of totality, lunar eclipses can more frequently be observed from one's own backyard. The passage of the Moon through the Earth's shadow is similarly visible from all places within the hemisphere where the Moon is above the horizon.

The total phase of the upcoming event will be visible across much of North America, all of South America, as well as central and western Europe and most of Africa (except the extreme eastern part). This makes for a potential viewing audience of nearly 2 billion people.

For North Americans, this will be the first total lunar eclipse in more than three years. There is nothing complicated about viewing this celestial spectacle. It is perfectly safe and simple to watch with the naked eye, but binoculars or a small telescope will give a much nicer view.

The eclipse will begin rather undramatically when the Moon enters the faint outer portion, or penumbra, of the Earth's shadow about an hour before it begins moving into the umbra. The penumbral portion of the event is all but invisible to the eye until the Moon becomes deeply immersed in it.

Sharp-eyed viewers may get their first glimpse of the penumbra as a faint "smudge" on the left part of the Moon's disk at or around 1:46 GMT (on May 16) which corresponds to 9:46 p.m. EDT on May 15, or 7:46 p.m. MDT.

The event becomes more remarkable when Moon begins to enter the Earth’s dark inner shadow (the umbra). A small scallop of darkness will begin to appear on the Moon's left edge at 2:03 GMT (on May 16) corresponding to 10:03 p.m. EDT (on May 15) or 8:03 p.m. MDT.

The Moon will take 3 hours and 14 minutes to pass completely through the umbra, and just less than one-third of that time it will be entirely immersed in shadow.

While much of eastern and central U.S. and Canada will see the Moon enter the umbra, those living to the west of a line running from near roughly Tucson, Arizona to Minot, North Dakota, to Port Nelson, Manitoba, Canada will see the Moon rise already in eclipse.

The total phase of the eclipse will last 53 minutes beginning at 3:14 GMT on May 16, corresponding to 11:14 p.m. EDT on May 15, or 8:14 p.m. PDT. During totality, although the Moon will be entirely immersed in the Earth’s shadow, it likely will not disappear from sight. Rather, it should appear to turn a coppery red color, a change caused by the Earth's atmosphere bending or refracting sunlight into the shadow.

Since the Earth's shadow is cone-shaped and extends out into space for some 857,000 miles (1,379,000 kilometers), sunlight will be strained through a sort of "double sunset," all around the rim of the Earth, into its shadow and then onto the Moon.

Local forecast

While much of eastern and central U.S. and Canada will see the Moon enter the umbra, those living to the west of a line running from near roughly Tucson, Arizona to Minot, North Dakota, to Port Nelson, Manitoba, Canada will see the Moon rise already in eclipse.

Because of low altitude and bright evening twilight, observers in these locations may not see much of the Moon at all until it begins to emerge from out of the Earth’s shadow.

Conversely, the Moon will be setting in total eclipse across portions of east-central Africa and central Europe. Because of low altitude and bright morning twilight, observers in these locations may not see much of the Moon at all after it slips completely into the Earth’s shadow.

At the moment of mid-totality (3:40 GMT/11:40 p.m. EDT), the Moon will stand directly overhead from easternmost Bolivia.

The Moon will pass entirely out of the Earth's umbra at 5:17 GMT, or 1:17 a.m. EDT, and the last evidence of the penumbra should vanish at or, around 5:34 GMT, or 1:34 a.m. EDT.

The last total lunar eclipse occurred on Jan. 9, 2001 and was visible primarily from the Eastern Hemisphere. The last widely observable lunar eclipse visible from the Americas occurred on Jan. 20-21, 2000.

Should unsettled weather eclipse your view of the upcoming eclipse, there is at least some consolation in knowing that there’ll be another total lunar eclipse visible from most of the Americas, Europe, Africa as well as much of Asia, later this year on the night of Nov. 8-9.

[Bruce Klein]

Summary (REPOST)


ImmInst members put their collective heads together to discuss the possibility of a GRB and potential survival solutions. The following ideas are in order of preference, 1. being most preferred.

Two ideas predominated - Prediction and Protection. Both are equally important, however, if we're unable to find success at prediction, we may have to resort to total protection alternatives.

Prediction:
As suggested by Kenneth Sills, if we can successfully model the probabilities and examine real time examples in the cosmos, we should be able to predict when and where a gamma ray burst will come from.

Apr 2003 Related Article:
Supernova Warning: First Ever Accurate Forecast of Exploding Star
http://www.space.com...s_010522-1.html

Idea: The Fermi paradox may be explained by GRB.
If life is wiped out every few million years by GRB, this may explain why we've yet to see other intelligent life in the universe.

Protection Ideas: Assuming we can't predict a blast:

1. Harden the Ionosphere
This solution is held as the most viable, especially in the short run. Since our atmosphere already shields us from harmful rays, we'd be scaling up the effectiveness by enhancing the existing natural system.

What is the ionosphere: 'that part of the upper atmosphere where free electrons occur in sufficient density to have an appreciable influence on the propagation of radio frequency electromagnetic waves' (http://www.ngdc.noaa...O/ionontro.html)

The ionosphere can be excited by simple radio waves. HAARP
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/ is already undertaking such projects to 'excite' the ionosphere.

2. Preempt The Burst Source
This solution would require advanced technology, and an intrepid spirit, but in theory we may be able to send probes out to hunt down and neutralize or nudge all potential GRB sources out of the path of our solar system.

3. Dyson Shielding
This would involve a huge project, however, it may prove to be a viable option if nanotech allows for easy manufacture of large scale protective barriers around the solar system. The idea involves creating a shield, which would serve the inverse purpose of the original idea proposed by Dyson called the Dyson Sphere. A Dyson Shield would wrap around the solar system providing a layer of protection against gamma ray bursts. It may prove more viable to create a Dyson Shield Cloud out of a Gamma Ray Absorbent Material, preferably 'smart' nano-enhanced material.

4. Upload to Safer Substrate
This is a transhumanist solution what would require advanced technology to upload our selves onto a networked system with redundant architecture. Also using other protection sheilding methods above in conjuntion.

Ideas: Assuming we can predict GRB:

6. Light Speed Escape Pods
A difficult proposition to say the least, but worth noting. If we're able to have some lead time, say more than a few minutes, and if we've developed space ships with the ability of traveling near the speed of light, we may be able to outrun the strongest portion of the blast, allowing the distance to provide the shield

7. Move to Opposite side of Earth
This would be a short term solution. The viability is here now for implementation, however, the future well being of the whole earth after the GRB may make this option mute.

8. Live Under Ocean/Ground
Self explanatory and similar scenario to #7. But if we already have uploading capabilities, this may be a way to add protection.

Members came away from the discussion with the shared understand that gamma ray burst do represent a real and dangerous threat to life. However, with improved detection and better modeling and predictability, we can do something about the problem. The threat may not be high on the list of immediate concerns because of the long interval between possible strikes, however, it's never to early to start thinking about solutions.


Discussion Contributors:
Mechanus (Nus)
Michael Haislip (celendra :: http://www.transhumaninstitute.com)
Kenneth Sills (Lazarus Long)
Michael Anissimov(MichaelA)
Ryan Bates (XxDoubleHelixX)
Edititing: Bruce J. Klein (BJKlein)


If you'd like to make suggestions or read the full chat, click here. http://www.imminst.o...&f=63&t=1119&s=

[Bruce Klein]

Did A Gamma-Ray Burst Devastate Life On Earth?

Science Daily - Planet killers from half way across the galaxy
London - Sep 26, 2003
A huge massive burst of gamma-rays 443 million years ago could have caused one of Earth's worst mass extinctions say a group of astrophysicists and palaeontologists in a report carried by this week's issue of New Scientist.
Using the pattern of trilobite extinctions at that time the scientists say the pattern meets the expected effects of a nearby gamma-ray burst (GRB). Although other experts have greeted the idea with some scepticism, most agree that it deserves further investigation.

http://www.spacedail.../gamma-03m.html

[Lazarus Long]

I read this and it was long enough ago that local stars were still going through their throes but as of the moment most stars close enough to really dose us are also pretty stable but that is why we must be more observant and not less.

[Thomas]

It is a billion of stars to watch, when a Sun mass equivalent portion, will convert to gamma rays in a tenth of a second and bake one half of the Earth. It happens seldom, but it does.

[Lazarus Long]

Gamma Rays still propagate only at the speed of light. The very closest star is almost four years away by that measure and gamma ray bursts don't just happen they are the result of stellar evolution and signs that such an event is imminent are possibly read decades if not centuries, or millennium beforehand. There are not a billion stars within 100 light years and not even within 200 light years distance and by this measure the problem is not so insurmountable.

If a star 50 light years away were observed to be on the verge of going nova soon then aspects of this behavior would already be visible. I am not blithe about this but to monitor a billion stars is not beyond our ability and the threat is not the same from all billion stars simultaneously. The level of radiation intensity is simply not the same from a star that produces a burst on the far side of our own galaxy as it is from one nearby.

I agree however that the threat is real, but many threats are real and we must prioritize our responses. I also suspect it has produced a cataclysmic extinction for most life exposed on the side of the planet that was facing that region of the sky when the event described by the article occurred but the more we observe and understand of celestial mechanics the less likely such an event will occur without us being prepared and many forms of preparation are possible.

[Thomas]

A billion is an underestimation. The other side of the planet would be quite devastated also. For now, we can't do a thing about it. IMHO.

[Lazarus Long]

Well in the event that did occur both sides of the Earth were not equally devastated and that too is in the fossil record. All life was effected but less as you went into the depths of the oceans and all surface species were not effected to the same degree.

You appear to be treating the Universe as if it is totally uniform and it isn't. There simply are not a billion stars as close as you are suggesting and they are not all immediate or similar threats. In fact we are in a relatively remote part of Milky Way on one of the less stellar populated middle/outer reaches of one the galactic spiral arms and we have far less difficulty doing an accounting of our region of space then you imply. The analogy is that we live on farm land in a semi rural region well distant from the intense stellar life in the big central city of Sagittarius B.

We observe gamma ray bursts routinely coming from galaxies all over the sky and these do not represent death because of the distances the radiation must travel and the extent to which that energy dissipates over distance, as well as the fact that not all gamma ray bursts are uniform in output.

Anyway, I also don't agree there is nothing we can do about it because if there was absolutely nothing then: why worry?

[Thomas]

I do not say, it is very likely, that it will happen. I have never said that. But we can't do a thing, if this event is about to happen next year. We were extremely lucky, that we had not this kind of event, very close to us. Several billions stars would be deadly for us, if they became a black hole, via a GRB.

The gamma-rays from 990123 had 1000 times the energy flux of the optical light, so at 2000 light years the gammas would deposit 2000 times as much energy as the Sun (in addition to twice as much visible light). Furthermore, this gamma-ray energy would interact in the upper atmosphere, producing nitrogen oxides that would rapidly catalyze the destruction of the ozone layer.

And then, a few centuries later, it gets worse, if current models are correct. A storm of cosmic rays would pretty much wipe out everything that wasn't beneath a few hundred meters of rock.

See?

[Lazarus Long]

Thomas, our galaxy is almost 175,000 light years across and even a ten thousand light year spherical radius does not produce a stellar census in the billions of stars. In fact as I tried to point out earlier we are in a relatively calm quadrant of the milky way (lucky us), relatively remote and as such we are in a segment of the spiral arm stellar where populations are not uniform in all directions and some directions are even less populated.

The quote you took from the astrophysicist is a hypothetical based on the question asked not an implication of threat probability. The astrophysicist was not trying to suggest that we are at any level of immediate risk from an event within that distance and I should also state that later in the article the scientist implies exactly what I was trying to state that GRB are not all the same and the level of intensity varies widely. This is most certainly an area deserving of study but at the moment there is very little to do about what we learn.

I am aware of the GRB threat and I do not discount it I simply am more focused on closer, more probable threats first and feel that as we acquire the technology from coping with those that more possibilities to confront such greater cosmic level threats will become apparent.

For example producing a planetary shield technology designed to amplify or augment the Earth's nature shielding, BTW another more important threat is the disruption of the Earth's shield (Van Allen Belts) and/or ozone layer, which doesn't require a GRB to happen, would definitely have catastrophic effects, AND is something we can take action to prevent and address.

Here is a generally related news clip:

Black Hole Airs 'Dirty Laundry'

Add this article too:
Hubble chases exploding stars

[Thomas]

It is 50 million stars closer than 2000 ly away, in the so called Orion Arm. Go 10 times further, and you'll get 5 billion star (Much more if you count the higher density near the center of the Galaxy). A GRB at that distance would still gave us a lethal dose of gamma rays. We can do nothing about that, at least for a decade. Of course, we will be able to - one day.

[Lazarus Long]

I stand corrected about the population at 10K ly's but I would like to see the source.

Anyway I see you get my "drift" but we are not that close to the galactic core either. Most (not all by any means) of the stars in our "vicinity" are relatively stable third generation stars similar in age and general characteristics to our own.

[Thomas]

A very good link.

[Thomas]

From this link you may learn, that a GRB may (for a brief time) shine as 10 to the power of 22 Suns. Several times as much, in fact. So, you may calculate, that it could be 10^11 times further, than our Sun is, for the same appearance. It is about one million ly away. Only 10 thousand ly away, it would be 10000 times brighter than our Sun. The question is, how lethal that would be. And hardly any question, if it would be only 1000 ly away.

What does it takes for such a GRB? Just a star, 30 times heavier than Sun. Not a big deal. We were unbelievably lucky so far, I guess.

[Lazarus Long]

That link above doesn't work Thomas.

[Thomas]

Try it later.

[Lazarus Long]

I just thought I should put this on this thread for the record.

A very interesting event occurred almost simultaneously with the Tsunami event but it appears few have noticed but this gamma ray burst almost coincided with the tectonic event (it was slightly afterward) here on Earth. I am curious if what we witnessed was a gravitational bow wave effect that preceded the actual gamma radiation as a shock-wave. Just coincidence?

Could be but....

Remember the distance traveled was 50,000 lt yrs. This could be evidence to verify the critical aspects of quantum gravitational theory as a mountain of data was collected. My suspicion is that a type of Huygens Gravitational Wave effect may have preceded the actual EM *flash* by many hours or it might simply reflect the period of compression and gravitational displacement within the Neutron Stars' power surge that preceded the actual EM emission.

Huygens' Principle

Apparently the entire solar system was shaking from the event, in fact the entire galaxy is apparently experiencing a kind of gravitational oscillation (vibration) as this wave propagates. What if we are seeing an event that can be quantified to be slightly faster than light and being propagated just ahead of it?

While the flash was noticed after the tectonic event locally it is entirely conceivable that the actual gravitation shock wave struck earlier and while no one to date has related the two events I am curious if we may also be seeing evidence of how cosmic scale events could interfere with planetary tectonics by introducing a trigger force sufficient to release the pent up energy that already exists internally within the planet.

I am curious if the relationship of gravity and the event can be measured precisely in relation to the actual EM radiation emitted that we may have sufficient data and measures to test quantum gravitational theory against, which are analogous to how the Michaelson Morley experiment was used to verify Relativity Theory.

http://news.bbc.co.u...ure/4278005.stm

SGR 1806-20 has intense magnetic fields
Huge 'star-quake' rocks Milky Way

Astronomers say they have been stunned by the amount of energy released in a star explosion on the far side of our galaxy, 50,000 light-years away.

The flash of radiation on 27 December was so powerful that it bounced off the Moon and lit up the Earth's atmosphere.

The blast occurred on the surface of an exotic kind of star - a super-magnetic neutron star called SGR 1806-20.

If the explosion had been within just 10 light-years, Earth could have suffered a mass extinction, it is said.

"We figure that it's probably the biggest explosion observed by humans within our galaxy since Johannes Kepler saw his supernova in 1604," Dr Rob Fender, of Southampton University, UK, told the BBC News website.

One calculation has the giant flare on SGR 1806-20 unleashing about 10,000 trillion trillion trillion watts.

"This is a once-in-a-lifetime event. We have observed an object only 20km across, on the other side of our galaxy, releasing more energy in a 10th of a second than the Sun emits in 100,000 years," said Dr Fender.


Fast turn

The event overwhelmed detectors on space-borne telescopes, such as the recently launched Swift observatory.

This facility was put above the Earth to detect and analyse gamma-ray bursts - very intense but fleeting flashes of radiation.

The giant flare it and other instruments caught in December has left scientists scrabbling for superlatives.

[]
Swift moved quickly to track down the source of the gamma-rays [/i]

Twenty institutes from around the world have joined the investigation and two teams are to report their findings in a forthcoming issue of the journal Nature.

The light detected from the giant flare was far brighter in gamma-rays than visible light or X-rays. Research teams say the event can be traced to the magnetar SGR 1806-20.

This remarkable super-dense object is a neutron star - it is composed entirely of neutrons and is the remnant collapsed core of a once giant star. Now, though, this remnant is just 20km across and spins so fast it completes one revolution every 7.5 seconds.

"It has this super-strong magnetic field and this produces some kind of structure which has undergone a rearrangement - it's an event that is sometimes characterised as a 'star-quake', a neutron star equivalent of an earthquake," explained Dr Fender.

"It's the only possible way we can think of releasing so much energy."


Continued glow

SGR 1806-20 is sited in the southern constellation Sagittarius. Its distance puts it beyond the centre of the Milky Way and a safe distance from Earth.

"Had this happened within 10 light-years of us, it would have severely damaged our atmosphere and would possibly have triggered a mass extinction," said Dr Bryan Gaensler, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who is the lead author on one of the forthcoming Nature papers.

"Fortunately there are no magnetars anywhere near us."

The initial burst of high-energy radiation subsided quickly but there continues to be an afterglow at longer radio wavelengths. This radio emission persists as the shockwave from the explosion moves out through space, ploughing through nearby gas and exciting matter to extraordinary energies.

"We may go on observing this radio source for much of this year," Dr Fender said.

This work is being done at several centres around the globe, including at the UK's Multi-Element Radio-Linked Interferometer Network (Merlin) and the Joint Institute for VLBI (Very Long Baseline for Interferometry) in Europe - both large networks of linked radio telescopes.

Edited by Lazarus Long, 22 February 2005 - 03:38 PM.

[eternaltraveler]

Lazarus do you have a source for the gravitational wave associated with the gamma ray burst?

[Lazarus Long]

Elrond read the details of the event. The object is a neutron star remnant rotating at a very high speed and is estimated to be only 20 km in diameter. That makes it a super dense body too small to be a Black hole but composed of pure neutrons and it is called a *magnetar* because it is also emanating an extremely powerful magnetic field that was associated with the gamma rays.

A part of the theory that suggests how the energy burst we witnessed is created in the first place has to do with extreme gravitational collapse prior to the explosion. If the body is not of sufficient mass to collapse into a Black Hole then it can explode as a Nova burst radiating energy outward at extreme force. This object was not a full fledged star to begin with as it has already undergone the collapse phase into being a neutron star.

"This is a once-in-a-lifetime event. We have observed an object only 20km across, on the other side of our galaxy, releasing more energy in a 10th of a second than the Sun emits in 100,000 years," said Dr Fender.

I edited my original post to better clarify my suggestion. The point I am making is that we have so much data now that it is possible to ask this question and obtain answers one way or another to test the hypothesis.

This event offers a potential test of various Quantum Gravitation theory perhaps sufficient to verify (or disprove offering better models) much of what is only conjecture now.

[jaydfox]

Interesting idea Laz, if the tsunami was indeed caused by this. It means that a similar event wouldn't need to be as close as 10 light-years to trigger an ELE. If this blast had occurred 5,000 light-years away, the gravitational shockwave would have 100 times more powerful. At 500 light-years, it would have been 10,000 times more powerful. So even if the destructive effect on our atmosphere weren't enough to trigger mass extinction, the gravitational wave might, if it could trigger such tectonic activity... If your idea is correct.

Only more analysis of the data will be able to tell us this.

[Chip]

The tsunami was on December 25th, right? The radiation from the explosion reached Earth on the 27th. I guess Lazarus suggested perhaps a faster than light propagation of the "gavity wave." Is there any evidence and/or theory that suggests gravity waves propagate a bit faster than light?

[Lazarus Long]

Actually Chip the earthquake was on the 26th at 0058 GMT but it was on the other side of the Earth not that many hours to the west of the International dateline in the morning of the 27th *their* time. Though because of the proximity to midnight GMT I am still a bit confused as to whether this was the 26th or 27th local date in the Eastern Hemisphere where the epicenter was.
International Dateline

Tsunami Data

BTW, the GRB was also in the southern hemisphere sky.

Sticking to GMT as the baseline brings the events much closer. The distance traveled was 50K ltyrs so the real question is one posited by Quantum Gravitational theory. Do you understand how a bow wave works?

It precedes the actual force wave by what I referred to above called the Huygens Principle. There are a variety of explanations why a gravity wave might precede the light wave front, not all of which are based on an FTL aspect. Another is that the gravity wave emanated slightly before the actual Gamma Ray Burst due to the stellar compression, which is where the force is derived from to actually cause the Gamma Ray burst in the first place.

The point is that we saw the flash but the gravitational disruption could have easily preceded it and shown up on a variety of independently orbiting gravitational measuring satellites and earth based sensors so there are answers to this question in the data stream. (GRACE Sats)

Confirmation of such a gravitational wave would mean a number of things, one is that we might have quantifiable data with which to test various hypotheses about quantum gravitational theory.

Another is that we may be looking at an ancillary factor with regard to tectonic activity, as a form tidal shock wave that can trigger the sudden release of pent up force. The magnitude of the force is built up locally on the Earth, not as a consequence of the cosmic force. The shock wave itself did not directly make the earthquake under any circumstances.

My curiosity is whether or not it could have simply *triggered* the event through a form of tidal interference. Think of a wave pattern disruption. Tidal forces between the Earth, Sun and Moon are in *balance* with much larger galactic scale forces; should a *random* wave induce an oscillation of sufficient energy at an extremely long wave length you and I would never feel it but the interference pattern could be highly disruptive with respect to large scale pent up internal tectonic forces. Imagine a very discrete gravitational *soliton (like)* standing wave, rippling through the galactic gravitational matrix as a wave front to the *light* of the Gamma Ray Burst itself.

This is even accountable for under Relativity as it is a factor that can be accounted for with the recent refinements of Relativity Theory and doesn't have to actually be a form of FTL but simply a wave propagation that is slightly faster than the Gamma waves and as such after 50K ltyrs might arrive slightly ahead of the actual EM wave of the burst.

A seismograph might not at first even record such an extremely long wave phenomenon in an obvious manner but the planet would *experience* it as a disruption in our own gravitational well. A seriously performed review of the global data will confirm one way or another if such an event occurred but it wouldn't show up like an earthquake but rather a far longer wave harmonic visible as a pattern over a larger period of data. If that were to be confirmed then we would have an additional aspect of these events to be concerned with.

GRB Web Page
http://www.batse.com/

GRB's
http://imagine.gsfc...._l1/bursts.html

Quantum Gravity
http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9403051

GRACE Project
http://www.hypograph....cfm/32390.html

SRG 1806-20
http://scholar.googl...=en&btnG=Search

This is a better article on the event and ironically I am not the first to ponder this connection.
http://www.space.com...ash_050218.html

Tsunami Connection?
Several readers wondered if the magnetar blast could be related to the December tsunami. Scientists have made no such connection. The blast affected Earth's ionosphere, which is routinely affected to a greater extent by changes in solar activity.

While science does not yet have an answer to the question it may have the tools and data now to answer it. One thing, while the reports say the event was *witnessed* on the 27th it doesn't in fact say what time precisely in GMT terms in the reports I've read so far.

Theory of Quantum Gravity.

http://prola.aps.org.../v59/i8/e086004

http://prola.aps.org...v61/i10/p1155_1

http://prola.aps.org.../v50/i4/p2700_1

http://www.nature.co...e_source=nature

Standing Wave Physics
http://hyperphysics....ves/standw.html

[Chip]

Very, very interesting. Thank you for the informative speel. I just finished scanning through the original posts of this thread and I may have missed this but, seems to me that the less mass a body has and the more it is engineered to be stable from building up "trigger" points the better it is for a home for life to help escape the danger of a propagating gravity disturbance, in other words, space based colonies. Then the question of shielding becomes necessary. Seems the shielding mass of a planet would be nice to have but, in space, that can be too often prohibitive, possibly. I bet it would be possible to build strong active shield magnetic fields, perhaps using the solar radiation and super conducting manifolds to create such around the space colonies. Might that be a place where life could weather some of these storms?

[Lazarus Long]

seems to me that the less mass a body has and the more it is engineered to be stable from building up "trigger" points the better it is for a home for life to help escape the danger of a propagating gravity disturbance, in other words, space based colonies.

This is precisely one of the reasons I have been advocating beginning true terraforming experiments with lifeboat methodologies on captured asteroids. The scale is far more manageable and the ability to mount multiple projects far more reasonable.

Then the question of shielding becomes necessary. Seems the shielding mass of a planet would be nice to have but, in space, that can be too often prohibitive, possibly. I bet it would be possible to build strong active shield magnetic fields, perhaps using the solar radiation and super conducting manifolds to create such around the space colonies. Might that be a place where life could weather some of these storms?

This too is a vital aspect of such development and multiple shielding systems, some active (like magnetic bottling) and some passive (like layered water storage and rad resistant materials) is far more practical to assemble on smaller bodies.

Also there is a third form of shielding that is derived of both systems and I call that *Absorptive/Conversion shielding* and a very good example of that are solar-cells.

The more you can effectively *convert* the dangerous radiation into usable forms of storable/usable energy, the less you are impacted by the harmful energy and the more practical energy you have to operate the facility with. This approach is also able to reduce the amount of fissile material we would need to depend on for construction of these human outposts for expansion.

This third form of shielding is more important on these *lifeboat* Solar Islands, or *Beagle Barges* as I am fond of calling them. Beagle as in the *Spaceship Beagle* named for the ship Darwin served on.

Some nuclear reactive components are requisite for this scale of operation (like submarine type nuclear reactors) but it should be possible to accomplish this without depending on the still undeveloped fusion reactors and once that technology came online then the rate of progress would be increased dramatically.

BTW, here is another observation from the data on the GRB; we have a possible energy source no one has fully explained in terms of the physics.

From the scale of the energy output does simple fusion of the heavier elements explain the magnitude of the burst?

An event like this is too important to take for granted and a lot of *serious speculation* is warranted but one of the most important first aspects is to access the data, refine it to remove *noise* and then begin building valid theoretical models to explain it. Once that is done the possibility to put that new understanding to work becomes a pragmatic reality and perhaps along with a new theoretical model for energy production.