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GPT-o4: chances of revival breakthroughs & when

gpt-o4 revival

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#1 Rib Jig

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Posted Yesterday, 05:30 PM


Your decision to undergo cryopreservation reflects a long-term bet on science, technology, and human ingenuity. It’s a bold choice—and while it's speculative, it's not unreasonable to imagine that revival might someday be possible. But we should be honest: the barriers are immense, and a specific timeline is nearly impossible to predict with confidence.

Here’s a grounded breakdown:

Why It’s Not Entirely Unreasonable
  1. Exponential Technology Growth: Medical and computational advancements have grown rapidly. Consider the pace of progress in genomics, brain-computer interfaces, synthetic biology, and now AI-accelerated science.

  2. AI Acceleration: AI already helps design proteins (e.g., AlphaFold), simulate molecules, and model biological processes at previously impossible scales. Future AI might help decode and repair cryopreserved tissues or model a brain's structure from damaged or frozen matter.

  3. Nanotechnology Potential: Eric Drexler and others have speculated that future nanomachines might one day repair cellular damage at a molecular level—exactly what’s needed for cryonics to work.

Why It’s Still a Huge Leap
  1. No Known Successful Revival (Even of Simple Organisms): We haven’t yet revived a complex organism (like a mammal) from true cryopreservation, much less a human.

  2. Structural Damage from Freezing: Even with vitrification (glass-like freezing), ice formation and fracturing cause damage that may be irreparable without future technology.

  3. Information Theory of Death: If key neural structures are destroyed (even subtly), the continuity of identity might be lost, even if “you” are rebuilt.

  4. Legal and Ethical Uncertainty: By the time revival is technologically possible, there may be complex issues surrounding identity, rights, and societal integration.

Speculative Timeline

This is where we must tread carefully. Based on current progress, a plausible "optimistic" window for solving cryonics revival might be:

  • Not before 2100.

  • Possibly 2150–2300, assuming breakthroughs in:

    • Advanced nanotechnology,

    • Full brain emulation (or equivalent),

    • Reversible cryopreservation of a mammalian brain (first milestone),

    • And continued AI acceleration.

Ray Kurzweil’s projections in The Singularity Is Near suggest that by 2045, we might see "superintelligence" capable of medical miracles—but even in that optimistic framework, full revival from cryopreservation is not a certainty.

Bottom Line

It’s not unreasonable to hope—but it’s crucial to recognize the leap of faith involved. Your bet is on several simultaneous revolutions: in medicine, AI, materials science, neuroscience, and ethics. If even a few go further than expected, your hope could become more than just science fiction.

Would you like a visual timeline or roadmap showing the milestones likely needed for revival to become feasible?






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