A sizable body of epidemiological evidence indicates that particulate air pollution accelerates the onset and progression of age-related disease. The most plausible mechanism is an increase in chronic inflammation via the interaction of these particles with respiratory system tissues. A few very compelling natural experiments exist, in which similar populations happen to have different exposure to particulates, such as in parts of China or the Puget Sound region. Here, researchers take a more model-based approach to estimating future trends for cardiovascular disease resulting from particulate matter exposure. Of note, and as often the case in this sort of studies, individual risk is falling while overall incidence is rising. This is the demographic transition in action. The average age of the population is increasing, and there are more older people to suffer age-related disease.
This study aims to analyze the global trends and projected burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) attributable to particulate matter (PM) pollution. The objectives are to assess spatiotemporal trends, sociodemographic variations, and gender differences and to forecast the future burden using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.
We utilized data from GBD 2021 to evaluate age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CVD attributable to PM from 1990 to 2021. Age-period-cohort models and Joinpoint regression analysis were employed to evaluate temporal trends. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, which incorporates prior information to improve prediction stability, was selected to project the future burden up to 2045 due to its robustness in handling long-term epidemiological trends.
Between 1990 and 2021, global number of deaths and DALYs for CVD attributed to PM increased by 91.68% and 78.89%, respectively. Despite these increases, ASMR and age-standardized DALYs rates declined significantly, especially among females. The burden disproportionately affected low- and middle- Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, with significant gender and age differences. The elderly population and regions with lower SDI will bear the greater burden. Predictions indicate that by 2045, the number of deaths and DALYs will increase by approximately three times, with females experiencing a more pronounced rise.
Link: https://doi.org/10.1...872-025-04724-6
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