Adult life expectancy has exhibited a slow upward trend over the course of past decades, perhaps a year of increased life expectancy every decade, but the pace varies from year to year, region to region, and between socioeconomic groups. The trend exists as a result of improvements in medicine that impact the pace of aging as a side-effect, as therapies that deliberately target the mechanisms of aging have yet to reach widespread use. The contribution of medical advances is then layered with the effects of lifestyle differences, particularly the prevalence of obesity, public health programs such as efforts to reduce smoking, and other line items that can differ between populations and regions. Researchers here use European data to illustrate this point, and also note differences over time in the life expectancy trend.
This study makes several potential contributions to the ongoing debate on life expectancy trends in high-income countries. Our study examines these trends using data at the level of subnational regions: in total, we cover 450 regions in 13 Western European countries. We believe that addressing life expectancy at a fine geographical level is paramount in understanding the potential to further improve human longevity, as national aggregates mask large differences within countries. For example, in France, there are stark contrasts between laggard regions in the north and vanguard regions in the south and east. The disparities between eastern and western Germany, and northern and southern Belgium are equally pronounced. Together, they tell a compelling story of uneven regional progress.
Our study identified two distinct phases in the evolution of life expectancy gains over the past three decades. The first phase, from 1992 to 2005, was characterized by stable and substantial life expectancy gains in Western Europe (about 2.5 months per year for females and 3.5 months per year for males). Over this period, the pace of gains across regions quickly converged. In contrast, the second phase, from 2005 to 2019, marked a period of declining life expectancy gains. By 2018-2019, annual gains had decreased to about one month per year for females and two months for males.
During the earlier 'golden era', it was laggard regions that made the greatest gains in life expectancy. By contrast, the period 2005-2019 was much less favourable, as laggard regions saw shrinking gains in life expectancy. The driving forces behind this impressive reversal of fortunes can be better understood through the convergence-divergence framework, which explains the mechanisms leading mortality levels across populations to either converge or diverge. According to this theory, major innovations (e.g., drugs that reduce blood pressure) may initially trigger divergence, as some countries or groups are better positioned to benefit from them. Once access broadens, convergence tends to follow.
Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68828-z
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