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Abundant energy in our solar system


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#1 caston

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Posted 06 October 2006 - 11:52 AM


We don't need FTLT but other forms of advanced propulsion will definately help.

It's time that we stop using up what we have here on earth and make use of the other energy and resources on the major planets and moons of our solar system.

Energy is used by productive minds to produce wealth and our solar system has enough energy to turn us all into "trillionaires".

There is no earthly (total and long term) solution to peak oil and growing resource demands. We must look to our solar system and discover what we can do with the enormous energy available.

http://www.petrocapitalism.org/

Who is with me?

#2 MichaelAnissimov

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Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:21 PM

Nuclear fission energy is fine too. Thorium can be found in more abundance than uranium. Once we have fusion, we won't really need to travel anywhere if we don't want to, actually. We can get plenty of fusibles right out of the ocean.

By the way, in the future we'll all be using technologies to make ourselves think on much faster timescales, making it seem like the planets and stars are much further away. They'll become less attractive fast.

Things found on earth:

puppies, rainbows, champagne, dancing, roller coasters, internet, imminst, chess, swimming pools, mountains, tropical islands, universities, shrimp, party hats, porcelain, etc.

Things found in space:

dust, rocks, hydrogen gas, vacuum.

It takes forever to turn the things into space into the same things we have on earth...

#3 Athanasios

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Posted 06 October 2006 - 10:06 PM

Things found on earth:

puppies, rainbows, champagne, dancing, roller coasters, internet, imminst, chess, swimming pools, mountains, tropical islands, universities, shrimp, party hats, porcelain, etc.

Things found in space:

dust, rocks, hydrogen gas,  vacuum.

It takes forever to turn the things into space into the same things we have on earth...


There is no space travel for me without a holodeck.

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#4 caston

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 12:39 AM

Michael:

Those "things found on earth" are not generally found in very tiny mining settlements and even if they are the mining town was not setup so they could have those things there. The mining town was setup to help provide resources to keep producing those things in the major cities.

I stipulate that if we don't use our solar system will will eventually lose those "things found on earth" as we no longer have the resources to keep everyone living at a european standard.

My advocacy is not to settle space not for settlements stake but the use the resources in the solar system for earths sake. Therefore I am not advocating terraforming mars nor permanent settlements in the solar system for colonisations sake. I expect those things such as biodomes and arcologies as merely as a requirement for mining activities. If larger cities spawn from those than that is fine but the idea is to make investors salivate at the energy reserves and potential profits when space resources are used here on earth.

Long term there will be a permanent human presence in the solar system but it will be much more energy intensive to maintain living conditions (water, oxygen, temperature, pressure, gravity, food made using nanotechnology) but the energy to do this is in abundance.

Very energy intensive manufacturing could be carried out on other planets and moons in the solar system then end products transported back to earth.

#5 maestro949

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 01:13 AM

I stipulate that if we don't use our solar system will will eventually lose those "things found on earth" as we no longer have the resources to keep everyone living at a european standard.


With nanotech we'll be able to recycle virtually everything. It may sound gross but even the food we eat can be enzymatically restored from a fecal chip to a veggie burger. mmm.

#6 jaydfox

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 01:26 AM

With nanotech, we'll have just about all the material we'll need right here on earth. We'll be short of some elements (rare metals, etc.), so extraterrestrial mining will still be necessary. We could transmute elements, but it'll probably be more energy efficient to mine the elements from the solar system and ship them back to earth (just guessing, it might be cheaper to transmute).

The main limiting factor is energy. Eventually, we'll have solar power collectors in space, billions of square kilometers of them, trillions, etc. As power consumption ramps up, eventually we'll start mining the rest of the solar system for more than just rare metals (e.g., basic elements for construction, He3 for energy).

Eventually, we'll reach the point where we're using a significant fraction of the sun's output. The energy output of the sun is emmense, much more immense than we could hope to achieve by fusion (so He3 mining will be short-lived, centuries if not decades).

For example, the sun burns through 600 million metric tons of hydrogen every second. Most of that gets emitted as either solar radiation, the solar wind, or neutrinos. We can harness two out of three of those things. The waste heat would be shed from the solar collectors, so that from light-years away, the sun would seem to dim and give off a very strange spectrum, but otherwise would still glow.

Once we're using more energy than we can harness from the sun (centuries if not millenia from now), we'll come up with something else, whether it be something as simple as moving to other stars, or tapping into something exotic like zero point energy, etc.

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 01:38 AM

By the way, in the future we'll all be using technologies to make ourselves think on much faster timescales, making it seem like the planets and stars are much further away.  They'll become less attractive fast.

Solution: smoke more dope and other activities to slow down brain activity.

#8 caston

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 03:06 AM

maestro949:

My suspicion is that nano assembly will be very energy intensive.

Jay:

The sun is without a doubt the ultimate source of energy. The problem is how we tap into it. Solar collectors are very expensive and require a lot of energy to manufacture. We may burn up so much fossil fuels building solar collectors that we barely break even on the solar energy we bring in.

We may need to use He3 fusion to power the production of solar collectors which is what I could call a hybrid approach.

Ultimately if all earth energy resources peak there will never be enough surplus to invest in space energy infrastructure and we could be stuck here.

edit: I've just gone back and read your post again and realised mine is a bit of different take on what you said already :)
Yes it will be very interesting to see if is cheaper to transmute elements or ship them to earth but take into consideration: were burning up earth energy to transmute and Jupiter He3 to ship. Of course the earth energy may have come from space. Transmuting may also require a lot of land or have byproducts that are energy intensive to break down to turn into other products. There could be fall out or risk of atomic instability. Risk of environmental contamination by nano assemblers.

There may be no point manufacturing things on good earth land where people could live when mining, manufacturing and transmutting could be carried out on barren lifeless worlds.

Interesting that our closest gaseous giant Jupiter is mainly comprised of liquid Hydrogen. How would one attempt to collect and use some of Jupiters hydrogen?

One possible pitfall I invision is excess water vapor released into the atmosphere (e.g from burning hydrogen or He3 fusion) could increase world temperature as water vapor is much more effective at trapping heat than CO2.

edit:

According to this blog article it naturally balances out as the life of water vapor is much shorter than CO2:

http://mustelid.blog...t-dominant.html

The question is what would happen if the planet had a gradually increasing amount of H2O?

Edited by caston, 07 October 2006 - 08:59 AM.


#9 caston

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 03:35 AM

By the way, in the future we'll all be using technologies to make ourselves think on much faster timescales, making it seem like the planets and stars are much further away.  They'll become less attractive fast.

.


With a better mind I would have thought we'd be more equiped to plan ahead. Impatience is foolish after all. Once we are immortal though a "short trip" to Tau Ceti won't waste much of our time.

#10 Centurion

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 02:00 PM

I think what Michael was driving at was that considering humans will be changing so fast, self discovery and exploration of what we are and are capable of would become engrossing enough to make exploration of the dead vacuum of space a lot less interesting.

#11 Lazarus Long

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Posted 07 October 2006 - 03:08 PM

Interesting to see the divide of man on this simple yet crucial aspect of evolution as defined by the symbolic element of what may be a driving underlying meme that helped bring all humanity to where we are today. Whether to go or stay.

This is reflective a process of socialization and consequential success that has been the driving force of colonization and migration since we lived in caves. It is also how it created multiple culturization that often created conflict through competition but more importantly created a fusion of perspectives that allows our species to leap over the obstacles that have faced all other species for development that do not have a sense of history and a means of objectively recording it.

Can everyone recognize both Caston and Michael as correct?

There is another important aspect to the explorer's dilemma as one tends to be introverted and the other extroverted. The basic idea however of exploration of the unknown is the central driving factor and in both cases requires a more balanced perspective to achieve a satisfactory result.

Colonization as a social force is generally the result of success without recognition of the consequences of our actions. Overpopulation, soil degradation, resource demand, etc but it can also be the result of climate change or natural catastrophe.

Exploration however is an emotional act of will that drives a rational quest for knowledge. True explorers are not deterred by the obstacles and concerns Michael has raised, they simply go with the territory as they say.

However behind explorers have always traveled those that need a new path .

#12 caston

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Posted 08 October 2006 - 02:18 AM

Thanks Lazarus,

I do want to explore space and I'm also very concerned about peak oil and our future energy requirements. I hope to "sell space" to people as the ultimate solution and get things moving by appealing to both necessity and greed.

#13 MichaelAnissimov

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Posted 08 October 2006 - 03:45 AM

Jay,

Once we're using more energy than we can harness from the sun (centuries if not millenia from now), we'll come up with something else, whether it be something as simple as moving to other stars, or tapping into something exotic like zero point energy, etc.


Keep in mind that the solar system could support something like 10^25 humans, or 10^30 or more uploads. It's more likely that we'll all go into the regime of reversible computation and consume practically zero energy, rather than actually bothering to expand out into space.

Caston,

My suspicion is that nano assembly will be very energy intensive.


Why is that..? What did you read about nanotech that made you think this? Anyway, your body is made of nanotech and it isn't very energy intensive.

Centurion,

I think what Michael was driving at was that considering humans will be changing so fast, self discovery and exploration of what we are and are capable of would become engrossing enough to make exploration of the dead vacuum of space a lot less interesting.


Yep! John Smart is another big proponent of this view. Inner space, not outer space.

Exploring the planet has been interesting, because it inherently has a lot of human-interesting stuff to see, like new forms of life. The stars, however, do not.

#14 caston

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Posted 08 October 2006 - 04:33 AM

Jay,


Why is that..?  What did you read about nanotech that made you think this?  Anyway, your body is made of nanotech and it isn't very energy intensive.



Rearranging many trillions of covalent bonds per second would be very energy intensive and would also release a lot of heat that would require cooling. Enormous computational power is also required to run the nanofactory.

Yes, very energy efficient devices can be built with nanotechnology and we could save a great deal of energy by making the investment upfront (e.g. nanomanufacturing ultra efficient light bulbs and engines) but what we can build or recycle will ultimately be limited by how much energy we have.

In light of this my view is that nanotechnology will not solve our energy crisis. Breaking and rearranging bonds will never get us more energy than we put in.

Once we have robust nanotech humans will consume more energy not less.

We must look to the solar system to get the energy required without trashing our environment and spending earth resources that should be reserved for future generations.

Edited by caston, 08 October 2006 - 10:36 AM.


#15 mikelorrey

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Posted 08 October 2006 - 11:23 AM

Jay,


Why is that..?  What did you read about nanotech that made you think this?  Anyway, your body is made of nanotech and it isn't very energy intensive.



Rearranging many trillions of covalent bonds per second would be very energy intensive and would also release a lot of heat that would require cooling. Enormous computational power is also required to run the nanofactory.

Yes, very energy efficient devices can be built with nanotechnology and we could save a great deal of energy by making the investment upfront (e.g. nanomanufacturing ultra efficient light bulbs and engines) but what we can build or recycle will ultimately be limited by how much energy we have.

In light of this my view is that nanotechnology will not solve our energy crisis. Breaking and rearranging bonds will never get us more energy than we put in.

Once we have robust nanotech humans will consume more energy not less.

We must look to the solar system to get the energy required without trashing our environment and spending earth resources that should be reserved for future generations.


Biological nanosystems are low energy intensity, but are not very robust for that reason. High energy particles and molecules can seriously damage them rather easily (like how cooking precipitates proteins out of solution) for the simple reason that in order to operate at a low energy level, their molecules need to be rather loosely bound. Extremophilic bacteria must replace elements in their proteins, like iron, with elements like tungsten in order to more tightly bind protein molecules together, but doing so prevents those proteins from being able to function at room temperature. Wet nanotech will not be heat intenstive, but will be limited in computational power and repair capabilities to within a reasonable range of organically evolved natural systems.

If chemical bond computation is not going to be used (as biological systems do), then either mechanical, electrical, or optical systems must be utilized. mechanical systems generate lots of heat by the friction of their moving parts, and may even generate some heat from the structural stress of resisting various forms of casimir forces within their structures. Electrical obviously generates resistance related heat, and optical, which generates heat by exhausting the quanta of photons in computation, and emitting the waste as black body radiation, may be the most efficient as well as the most robust.

Some nanosystems may use a mixture of these processes, but their robustness will be limited to the weakest of their links.

Nanotech will solve the energy crisis through efficiency. Integrated silicon circuitry is incredibly inefficient in terms of flops per watt-hour. This is a pie cutting exercise: if you make your energy consumption infrastructure 50% more efficient, you double the lifetime or capacity of your energy resource base.

As an example, as some know, I invented a product to retrofit exit signs about 15 years ago, using EL lamps. 97% energy efficient, we were able to retrofit 40 watt incandescent exit signs with 0.31 watt EL lamp retrofit kits, providing essentially the same illumination, and often with improved quality due to the even emission of light over the surface of the lamp, and its emission within a narrow band of the visible spectrum most efficient at being observed by human eyes through smoke. This product has saved many millions of kilowatt hours of energy. You think, 40 watts isn't so big, but those exit signs run 24/7, while most normal lights only operate during working hours. i.e. a 40 watt exit sign consumes as many watt hours as a 80-120 watt fluorescent light fixture. There are hundreds of millions of exit signs in the US alone.

The whole reason for the low oil prices of the 1990's was the vehicular efficiencies developed in the 1980's. The current push to transition to hybrid vehicles will lead to a similar reduction in oil prices and expansion of the practical capacity of the known oil reserves. Going from a world of 25 mpg cars to 50 mpg cars means rather than 75 years of oil at 80 billion barrels a year consumed, we have 150 years of oil at 40 billion barrels a year consumed (and future efficiency gains mean further doublings).

There is no energy "crisis". We are in a point of time in which we are in a temporary transportation efficiency singularity, and will shortly transition to a new technology (hybrids) to begin a new asymptotic curve, as Kurzweil has explained.

#16 caston

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Posted 08 October 2006 - 12:17 PM

Thanks Mike,

This is a very one point reply but I should come back and edit my post later. The efficiency of the vehicle does not make as big an impact on consumption as the extent of urban sprawl. Cars can become more efficient but as long as we need to travel further and further automotive energy use will continue to increase.

#17 mikelorrey

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Posted 09 October 2006 - 08:03 PM

Thanks Mike,

This is a very one point reply but I should come back and edit my post later. The efficiency of the vehicle does not make as big an impact on consumption as the extent of urban sprawl. Cars can become more efficient but as long as we need to travel further and further automotive energy use will continue to increase.


But do we need to travel that far? As those of you already in Second Life can attest, there is no need to travel around the real world for work when you can travel around the world of Second Life. I just interviewed the president of one of the largest banks in SL, and he says that Fortune 500 companies are paying rather large sums to have virtual corporate centers developed in SL, which will be used in place of teleconferences and video conferencing internationally, as well as allowing a virtual office for those telecommuting.

Similarly, people are shopping "in-world", both for virtual items as well as for real world items, like a 3-D eBay.

As this becomes reality (and some of the guys at WTA are betting it will soon), it will reduce the need for vehicular commuting. The city is obsolete.

And, FYI, average commute times have not significantly increased in most regions. Only a few areas is this a problem, and is generally caused by the existence of growth control ordinances and other ill-thought-out government regulations, because they prevent people from building upward. Another issue is the lagging of human resources in jumping into telecommuting. Management needs to get with not controlling the workplace so much. This is happening in many areas, but even many internet companies still insist on you being physically present to work. Thats as stupid as requiring auto company workers drive their horse and buggies to work.

#18 caston

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Posted 10 October 2006 - 12:38 PM

Second life requires energy produced in "first life"

I don't really want to get into a virtual worlds debate and I almost replied with something borderline rude but decided not to.

What again is second life?

My understanding is that it was a massively online role playing game like one of the MUDs or everquest.

If second life can help us protype and beta-test the space-age economy then maybe we can both win here? What do you say?

#19 maestro949

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Posted 10 October 2006 - 01:02 PM

Agree with both mikes. Nanotech will bring unprecedented levels of efficiency. We will be able to harness and store the free energy from the sun which could easily sustain rediculous population sizes here on earth. Personally I don't see any need to rush into space. Like MA said it's just a bunch of dust and radiation floating about. The cost is still too high as is the opportunity cost when compared to LE research. I'd rather see us invest all that research money into nanotech, chemoinformatics, chemogenomics and microbiology as they relate to therapies and medical technology.

#20 Lazarus Long

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Posted 10 October 2006 - 01:19 PM

We will be able to harness and store the free energy from the sun which could easily sustain rediculous population sizes here on earth.


This Pie in the Sky energy source is predicated not merely on an assumption about the rate such technology can be integrated into society but a premise that is itself highly contentious.

The very goal of such an application is a source of strife that will bring humanity into ever worsening conflict as there are many that will fight to the death to impede the idea of a human only world that is the consequence of such irrational population growth.

There are others that simply couldn't stand to live on the world that you describe and would prefer to explore and move away from what they find abhorrent. They will not kill their own kind but they will not contribute to what they see as destructive madness. They will leave and this ironically is the same drive that expanded humanity around the globe in the first place.

Sadly they are the minority and you can expect many more to fight to the death to stop the goal from coming to fruition. Not the part about energy, the part about ridiculously high population. There will more than likely be war as a result of unbridled population growth and war that will be more destructive than any ever known before.

#21 caston

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Posted 10 October 2006 - 02:24 PM

Of course I'm trying to avoid the mass genocide that would result from a forced de-industrialisation.

Will abundant cheap energy cause people to have more children? Perhaps not as there will be a zillion other things to do than have sex. Perhaps so because people can afford it but in my experience poor people breed more.

It is not up to us to decide on the family planning choices for future generations. It is up to us to look after our current generation and its future needs including insuring there is a future both for us and our children.

Perhaps we have reached a fork in the road. One option is a gradual deindustrialisation based around "natural capitalism" and sustainability. Turning sewerage/algae. agricultural waste and lawn clippings into biofuels, people driving less and walking more, growing food without ammonia fertilisers, washing their clothes by hand and getting buff mixing cement.

The other is extending the reach of our domain to beyond our planet and using resources outside earth in order to superindustralise. The space age is the point where our lives are just as dependent on resources from space as they now are on crude oil and natural gas, yet our economy is no longer based on unrenewable resources so our continued industrialisation would no longer be on numbered days.

I think the technology needed to achieve immortality will only be possible with the second option and by establishing immortalists as the energy trillionaires of the space age we will ensure that funds go where they need to go in order to achieve the indefinite sustenance of the individual.

Edited by caston, 11 October 2006 - 01:42 AM.


#22 caston

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 07:43 AM

Nuclear fission energy is fine too.  Thorium can be found in more abundance than uranium.  Once we have fusion, we won't really need to travel anywhere if we don't want to, actually.  We can get plenty of fusibles right out of the ocean.


Interesting that the deuterium actually comes from sea water.

My understanding is though that deuterium/He3 fusion is much better for the environment.

#23 maestro949

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 11:11 AM

It all boils down to economics. If the space age was affordable, we'd be there. As I see it there is little net return on investing trillions of dollars to build habitats in space or on desolate planets until we can economically generate the energy to get there and terraform it into a hospitable environment. We're at a point where just about anything we set our minds to is feasible given enough time, money and human engineering effort but we have a perfect habitat here on earth to refine the technologies and tools for long-term space exploration. If it were a choice between the two I'd rather invest in eliminating the suffering that humanity must face as it ages rather than populating space with colonies. The latter makes the prior much more feasible and more paletable to those less fortunate than those of us who can even contemplate such grand visions.

#24 caston

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 02:33 PM

Hi maestro,

I wanted to say a few things:

Firstly I got well carried away with the post at the top of this page.
I've mentioned before that I'm self-employed. At the time I was sort of fumeing because I sold a laptop to a customer as an idential to one that I had sold him previously but had been stolen. The laptop had to be ordered in from Sydney.

I have my chem test tomorrow and an essay due. I was setting up the laptop for him when I discovered the USB ports didn't work. The customer was pushing me a lot because he needed a PC ASAP.

I called support and got to speak to a tech that was about to finish up his shift for the day and he tried to talk me through opening the notebook and repairing it myself. The customer tried to unscrew the various screws himself even though I kept politely trying to tell him to just let me do it. Eventually there was one screw that we both had a trouble with and he got really aggitated and demanded I organise another notebook for him amongst other things.

It seemed like both the tech and the customer were angry at me for something that wasn't my fault.

There was one screw (not the same one we had trouble with before) that I couldn't get out most of today.

This evening I was able to get into the part of the laptop needed and it looks like the cable the tech was talking about is plugged in after all so it must be a controller problem and I must send it back to them.

I took out a cash advance on my credit card in order to refund the customers money and I'm going to pay that off from my investment account. He tried to talk me out of refunding him (because the guy needs someone to hold his hand when he uses or buys computers) it but I had to do it in order to release myself from the obligation.

The second thing I wanted to say forget space habbitats and think peak oil and that's my agrument. I'm saying that space is the only way we can beat peak oil without deindustrialising.

Now I've started reevaulating things and thinking I need to chill out a bit since the notebook episode.

Make of it what you will. There is one thing that I know and that is that I know nothing to quote socraties.

#25 mitkat

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 08:25 PM

Perhaps we have reached a fork in the road. One option is a gradual deindustrialisation based around "natural capitalism" and sustainability. Turning sewerage/algae. agricultural waste and lawn clippings into biofuels, people driving less and walking more, growing food without ammonia fertilisers, washing their clothes by hand and getting buff mixing cement.

The other is extending the reach of our domain to beyond our planet and using resources outside earth in order to superindustralise. The space age is the point where our lives are just as dependent on resources from space as they now are on crude oil and natural gas, yet our economy is no longer based on unrenewable resources so our continued industrialisation would no longer be on numbered days.


You've vocalized something I've been concerned about for some time very nicely, Caston. That is my main problem with a lot of space exploration/colonization speak - it regards earth as just another vessel, and that we'll be off it at some point, so f*ck it in the meantime. That viewpoint I find very disconcerting. Sorry, I've just got attached to the old thing, I guess ;)

I would even take your first pitch of the fork (which I whole-hearted agree with) and give it more tech. Uninformed people might think it's a bit luddite, but I see no reason how it is. Many of those technologies you've described involve a good amount of recent and complicated ideas and machines to execute with any real effciency. There is no reason to paint it as any kind of primitivism, we'd still have all the toys we are anticipating. I just happen to think everything we need is here, on this planet. Peak oil is a big concern for me also, especially after being creeped out by The End Of Suburbia a while back, I got really into the idea of New Urbanism. I'm not an urban planner (obviously), but I've enough faith in humanity to give 'em a chance after some housing bungles.

#26 MichaelAnissimov

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 08:54 PM

All forms of fusion or fission are radically better for the environment than any current form of alternative energy. This includes uranium fission. In the longer run, we will extract energy from the temperature differential between the mantle and the crust, and install millions of square kilometers of solar panels in space. But as maestro says, it all boils down to the economics. Space launch costs need to drop about five orders of magnitude before colonization really becomes feasible. I predict this will happen 5-10 years after nanofactories are introduced to the public.

Peak oil is not a threat because we will build nuclear power plants to make up for any shortfall.

Lazarus says that a war could happen due to overpopulation. More probable, I think, will be a war due to nanotech arms races. Here are my positions on nanoweapons and overpopulation, respectively:

http://www.accelerat...ael/blog/?p=180

http://www.accelerat...ael/blog/?p=174

Maestro: for the time being, colonizing space on a limited scale is more important than working on life extension therapies because of the spectre of existential risk. This is a simple utilitarian calculation that can be done with basic arithmetic. Even if the likelihood of planet-covering ecophages destroying all life on the surface seems low, what's at stake is humanity's entire future, so it makes sense to have backups.

It also relates to taking the selfish view versus taking the global view. In the selfish view, if I plan to stay on earth for the next few centuries, and there's a global disaster, then I'm dead and there's nothing I can do about it. So it makes sense to work towards life extension therapies, and not worry about space. In the global, future-looking view, launching colonies is more important because even if I die, the human race would continue to survive and live worthwhile lives for billions of years to come.

I wish that more in the healthy life extension community would take the global view, which goes far beyond individual desires.

#27 bgwowk

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 10:21 PM

I'm as much a space colonization enthusiast as anyone, even more so than Michael inasmuch as I regard it as a long-term evolutionary inevitability. However I must disagree that space colonization is important in the short term to mitigate "existential risks." Until (and if) technology becomes so advanced that small communities can independently sustain an industrial infrastructure, any small community beyond earth will be doomed if earth's industrial infrastructure fails.

Small communities can survive as agragarian socieites. Not so for industrial socieites. Historically, the more complex the technology, the more people sustain it. Factories that make vacuum tubes are simpler than factories that make discrete semiconductors, which are simpler than factories that make semiconductor chips, which are simpler than factories that make large-scale integrated circuits. Plants that make computer chips used to cost millions of dollars, but now cost billions-- for one plant!. Where is a small space colony with early 21st century technology going to get its PCs? 21st century high technology is sustained by multiple countries spread across an entire planet.

Theoretically molecular nanotechnology could reverse this trend, but there is still no sign of such a reversal happening. Until high technology can be indefinitely sustained on much smaller scales than it is today, space colonization doesn't mitigate "existential risks" at all.

I also am a bit taken aback by this apparent focus on species welfare ("existential risk") rather than invididual welfare. There are 6 billion people dying right now. The main reason they are dying is that aging isn't taken seriously as an illness because it "only" impacts invididuals, not the species. History is full of calls for sacrifice of individual lives for "higher" causes, and the result is never good. I submit that the best way, or at least the most morally worthy way, to save a species is one individual at a time.

Edited by bgwowk, 11 October 2006 - 10:53 PM.


#28 mitkat

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 10:45 PM

Peak oil is not a threat because we will build nuclear power plants to make up for any shortfall.


Our reliance on oil will have to be radically reduced in a fairly short time period before we can build inexpensive, higher-quality, nuke plants in great numbers. As well as address the major issues of transportation, and every other major industry than runs primarily on petroleum.


It also relates to taking the selfish view versus taking the global view.  In the selfish view, if I plan to stay on earth for the next few centuries, and there's a global disaster, then I'm dead and there's nothing I can do about it.  So it makes sense to work towards life extension therapies, and not worry about space.  In the global, future-looking view, launching colonies is more important because even if I die, the human race would continue to survive and live worthwhile lives for billions of years to come.


Be careful when applying the terms "selfish" and "global" in regards to your proposed views, because that future-looking view is simple anthropocentrism if mess up this joint in a jiffy, or just get bored with it. Not saying we should just sit here if the mountains crumble, and the seas boil, etc - we should all get on that ship. Does that in turn, give us free license to anally rape every facet of our environment for every possible drop/grain of new and presently unimaginable resource at the same time, because we've got that handy space escape plan?

I wish that more in the healthy life extension community would take the global view, which goes far beyond individual desires.


Me too! ;) I totally agree, a global view is most important, with everything that resides on it.

#29 mitkat

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 10:50 PM

All forms of fusion or fission are radically better for the environment than any current form of alternative energy.  This includes uranium fission.  In the longer run, we will extract energy from the temperature differential between the mantle and the crust, and install millions of square kilometers of solar panels in space.  But as maestro says, it all boils down to the economics.  Space launch costs need to drop about five orders of magnitude before colonization really becomes feasible.  I predict this will happen 5-10 years after nanofactories are introduced to the public.


Better for the environment how, exactly? Better because they simply produce more power, or is there an intrinsic environmental value of some sort?

I don't know much about fission or fusion beyond laymen terms, it's way out of my field. [glasses] I am curious what you mean.

#30 Centurion

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Posted 11 October 2006 - 11:33 PM

Better in that they dont release tonnes of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. Ie opposed to the current reliance on fossil fuel which directly results from the impractical expense associated with current alternatives such as wind, tidal and solar.




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