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The sheer size of the universe.


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#1 AdamSummerfield

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Posted 23 October 2006 - 05:51 PM


Greetings.

I am often in awe while thinking upon one of my favourite topics. Especially when looking upon pictures that Hubble has taken, like the Ultra Deep Field.
How do you guys feel about the size fo the universe? Even if we take just our Galaxy and look at the size of it, 100 Billion stars, it is believed that 0.6% of those stars have Jupiter-sized planets orbiting them. So this must mean that a small percentage (but still resulting in many) of stars must have liquid-water-bearing planets orbiting them.
The figures of this are so large, that it must be true, that somewhere in this galaxy, there is an alien race carving messages on cave walls, and another race building artificial planets and advancing its technology beyond our wildest dreams.
Then perhaps, turn your minds gaze to intergalactic space - if you dare -, here you can see the huge inimaginable distance between galaxies, and how far into the distance the galaxies stretch. Out here, there must be countless planets, countless alien races.
Its a wonderful chance we have been given. The ability to ponder these things with our advanced minds (when comparing to other animals on our planet).
Please share your thoughts.

#2 bgwowk

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Posted 23 October 2006 - 06:27 PM

Your reasoning is incorrect. The existence of life in the universe (us) proves that the probability of life spontaneously arising is non-zero. We have no data how on close to zero it is. If the probability of a planet generating life is 10**-60, and the universe contains 10**+50 worlds, then we are alone in the universe.

There is suggestive evidence that the probability of simple life arising spontaneously (or perhaps getting seeded from space) is high. Specifically, microbe fossils have been found on earth from practically the time the surface was cool enough to support them. It may be that the rate-limiting step in the development of intelligent life is the jump from simple to complex life. This is supported by the observation that complex life arose late and suddenly in the earth's history. For billions of years there was nothing here but bacteria. Perhaps much of the universe is like that.

I assume you are aware of the Fermi paradox, which speaks strongly against the existence of other intelligent tool-makers in the visible universe. Anywhere intelligent life arises, it will likely explode outward at near the speed of light for basic evolutionary reasons. We don't see any evidence that this has occurred yet, so *we* may be the seed that spreads life and intelligence through the universe (Dyson's "Greening of the Galaxy").

Edited by bgwowk, 23 October 2006 - 10:37 PM.


#3 AdamSummerfield

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 12:51 AM

I see.
I am/was aware that the chance of intelligent life existing in the galaxy was all probability - all numbers, but no assurance that it was true.
But I maintain the very strong belief that there is other intelligent life in our galaxy, let alone the universe.

And also, I have not heard of the Fermi paradox. I have always relied on my own philosophy when it comes to galactic span, intelligent life, and world building/predicting.

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#4 RighteousReason

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 12:58 AM

I am/was aware that the chance of intelligent life existing in the galaxy was all probability - all numbers, but no assurance that it was true.
But I maintain the very strong belief that there is other intelligent life in our galaxy, let alone the universe.

Ok you need to connect those two. Your beliefs should reflect the probability. In this case, the means of calculating this probability are ... rather difficult and inaccurate.

I say damn the estimations- let's go look for ourselves!


Of course, this Universe is so unimaginably huge, it would be quite necessary to ensure we can stay alive through the billions of years of our travels.

#5 bgwowk

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 03:20 AM

Interestingly, it seems to be cheaper and faster to build sensors with interstellar range rather than probes. I predict that massive optical imaging projects will yield high resolution images of terrestrial planets around other stars long before probes or ships get there. But eventually people or our progeny will go. It's what life does.

#6 kent23

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 06:37 AM

Unless we all get destroyed first.

Check out The Lifeboat Foundation.

#7 AdamSummerfield

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 06:15 PM

Yeah, but most probably by a freak hazard such as a large comet, I don't think an alien race would destroy us, the fact that they have developed far enough to achieve interstellar flight indicates that they are used to co-operation.

#8 amar

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 08:04 PM

I figure that the universe isn't finite at all. It's infinitely vast, which is the only explanation for why there's so much room for galaxies to expand. The big bang theory might be true of our galaxy (maybe the cosmic condom broke) but I doubt that it's true of the entire universe. The whole universe is probably both infinite and eternal, though most people still agree that the whole thing is just a transient figment of imagination dreamed up by Megaman.

#9 Lazarus Long

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 08:19 PM

(Amar)
The big bang theory might be true of our galaxy (maybe the cosmic condom broke) but I doubt that it's true of the entire universe.


The Big Bang far exceeds our galaxy and its impact is upon all the literally billions of galaxies we now observe or suspect are out there.

We are seeing back in time to almost the beginning through telescopes due to the distances involved. In fact I read an article about a week or so ago that claims we are actually able observe real time conditions all the way to a few hundred million years and maybe less after the moment on the Big Bang.

Perhaps this is what you are referring to Amar in an essay right out of today's paper.

Knowing the Universe in Detail (Except for That Pesky 96 Percent of It)

By DENNIS OVERBYE
Published: October 24, 2006
Hardly anyone remembers now, but 1991 was a bad year for the Big Bang.

Astronomers were having more and more difficulty reconciling their models of the explosion that gave birth and impetus to the expanding cosmos with the structure of the modern universe, in particular the discovery of strings of clusters and so-called superclusters of galaxies going hundreds of millions of light-years across the sky.

There was a rash of articles in prestigious journals like Science and even this newspaper saying that major elements of the model, or even the Big Bang itself, might have to be junked. “Big Bang Blown to Bits,” read one headline I remember.

I took all this rather personally because the publication of my first book, which was about cosmology, coincided with the appearance of these headlines. The cosmic jig was up, and I wasn’t getting invited onto any talk shows.

But in April 1992, George Smoot from the University of California, Berkeley, announced that the NASA satellite Cosmic Background Explorer, or Cobe, had detected faint irregularities in a bath of microwaves that pervade space.

The microwaves are presumed to be cooling radiation from the original fireball, and the splotches were the right size to one day grow into giant clusters of galaxies.

“If you are religious, it is like looking at God,” Dr. Smoot said.

This month Dr. Smoot and John Mather, of the Goddard Space Flight Center, the head Cobe scientist, were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics. There was much talk that Cobe had marked a turning point, the beginning of a “golden age,” in which cosmology went from a collection of vague ideas to a precision science.

Indeed, subsequent observations have parsed the meaning of those lumps, allowing cosmologists to converge on a remarkably detailed picture of the universe. The Big Bang, they now say, happened 13.7 billion years ago, plus or minus 150,000 years. That is a far cry from the days when some astronomers were ready to go to the mat over whether it was 10 billion or 20 billion years ago and when others shrugged and said a factor of two was pretty good in cosmology.

Moreover, they now say, ordinary atomic matter of the kind that makes up you, me and the stars is 4 percent of the cosmos; dark matter that floats as gravitational glue between the stars and galaxies is 20 percent; and dark energy, which is apparently accelerating the cosmic expansion, pushing the galaxies faster and faster apart, is 76 percent, plus or minus 2 percent.

You might wonder just exactly what kind of triumph “precision cosmology” represents when 96 percent of the universe is unknown dark stuff. Stars and people we know about. But the best guess for dark matter is that it is some kind of subatomic particle that will be discovered someday.

Dark energy was a complete surprise. How often do you toss a handful of gravel into the air and the rocks speed up as they leave your hand and disappear into the sky? The leading contender for an explanation is a fudge factor representing the repulsive force of empty space that Einstein danced in and out of his equations 75 or so years ago. But no one really knows.

Apparently we now know enough to say that the universe is precisely “preposterous,” in the words of Sean Carroll, a physicist and blogger at the California Institute of Technology. Michael Turner, a cosmologist at the University of Chicago, likes to say, “We know much, but we understand little.”

Critics of the Big Bang mutter darkly that all these mysterious elements in the equation are reminiscent of the epicycles, circles upon circles added to the orbits of the planets back in the Middle Ages to maintain the appearance that they were circling the Earth. Sometimes I wonder if the astrophysicists have been too glib for their own good. By adding dark energy and dark matter on top of black holes, they have overextended the “dark” brand just when we need a fresh dose of wonder.

But I didn’t buy the death of the Big Bang 15 years ago, and I don’t buy the criticism now. Particle physicists had already predicted the existence of extra “dark” particles before cosmologists put them to work. And antigravity, the dark energy, in precisely the amount discovered by two rival teams of astronomers in 1998, turned out to be the ingredient that made the Big Bang models finally work. Nobody had a chance to jiggle the numbers.

Sometimes the game comes to you. It was by following the light that cosmologists were led into the dark.

Still, the universe can always use a new Copernicus or Einstein. Thanks to the Cobe scientists and their successors, these are boom times for the Big Bang. After all, 96 percent of the universe is still waiting to be found.


Now I will look for that article on the age. I think I read it in Live Science

#10 Lazarus Long

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 08:30 PM

Here is an excerpt from one of them:

Universe not Pill-Shaped, it is open : Dr. Raj Baldev
MIL, Oct 12, 2006. Henry Groover

California, October 12, 2006 - Scientists announced that instead of the widely held theory that the universe is spherical, recent data reveals that the universe might be stretched in a shape like a pill. But Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist from India, does not agree with this finding. He said that the space is eternal, having no shape or flat shape; hence no question of Pill shaped Universe arises.

Scientists in Italy based their study on data gathered by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), a NASA satellite designed to measure the temperature of residual heat from the Big Bang. They said the ellipsoid form of the universe could be caused by a magnetic field pervading the cosmos and stretching the fabric of space and time.

It is claimed that data from the NASA probe helped nail down very important details about the universe.

These details include the age of the universe since the Big Bang occurred, (13.7 billion years old), the time when the first atoms formed (380,000 years after the Big Bang) and showed that the universe is made of five percent ordinary matter, 25 percent dark matter and 70 percent dark energy.

WMAP found that the first stars emerged about 400 million years after the Big Bang, a period previously estimated to be 200 million years. (exzcerpt)



#11 Lazarus Long

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 08:34 PM

Oh and BTW, the recent Nobel for Physics was exactly on this subject.

2 win Nobel for picture of backfire from Big Bang
Discovery gave physicists a detailed look at our past and future--how the universe began

By Ronald Kotulak
Tribune science reporter
Published October 4, 2006


Two physicists who obtained a satellite picture of the infant universe a mere 389,000 years after its explosive birth 13 billion years ago--a feat most scientists thought would never be achieved--have been awarded the 2006 Nobel Prize in physics.

Many consider their accomplishment the most important development in the field of cosmology, cementing the Big Bang theory as the best explanation for how the universe began, showing how stars and galaxies formed and providing scientists with a marvelous time machine for exploring the past and future of the cosmos.

For their measurement of cosmic background radiation--the afterglow of the Big Bang--John Mather of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland and George Smoot of the University of California at Berkeley will share the $1.37 million prize at a ceremony Dec. 10 in Stockholm, Nobel officials announced Tuesday.

"The discovery literally opened the gate to the golden age of cosmology that we're in," said Michael Turner of the University of Chicago. "It's a fantastic discovery that's enabling us to learn about the universe, how old it is, its shape and its composition."

The measurements of the microwave radiation were taken by the COBE satellite, or Cosmic Background Explorer, which began returning spectacular results within hours after it was launched into Earth orbit in 1989. The information transformed cosmology from an art into a precise science, according to physicists.
(excerpt)



#12 amar

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 08:39 PM

Yeah, it makes more sense to me that the entire universe is infinite rather than pill-shaped, though it is mind-altering.

#13 Lazarus Long

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 08:43 PM

Oh please excuse me. I misstated the WMAP data results above. Cosmologists are seeing the age of the universe back to 380,000 (THOUSAND) years after the Big Bang event.

That's right we are looking directly at the primordial universe when it was a little over a quarter of a million years old because of how long it has taken the light of those events to reach us.

#14 bgwowk

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 09:16 PM

The universe is not infinite since the speed of inflation was not infinite, and everything in the universe was once in a very small package (Big Bang). However, depending on how much and how fast inflation occurred, the whole universe could be much larger than the visible universe, as much as 10**1000 times larger last time I read about it.

The earliest light we can see is 13.7 billion years old. As Laz said, that was 380,000 years after the Big Bang, when the universe first became transparent. That "light" is the 3K cosmic microwave background radiation. When we look at the cosmic microwave background, we are looking directly at the plasma fire ball that gave birth to the universe. Seeing back any earlier than 380,000 years is impossible because plasma is opaque.

This universe is bounded in time and space, at least on one end. There are however a possibly infinite number of other universes in the so-called "multiverse," but that is another subject.

#15 JonesGuy

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Posted 25 October 2006 - 11:36 AM

I don't know if our 3D universe is infinite at all. Actually, Mr. Wowk - could you link an article explaining your reasoning? I recognise that our light bubble is finite in size (and if we're in a looped universe, it might be smaller than we think) - but I don't see why a galaxy a billion light years away couldn't have the same-sized light bubble we do, with the same number of galaxies we do.

What I like about the vastness of space is the sheer opportunity of wealth. Right now, we scramble for a few hectares of one planet. If we learn to harvest space, there are billions of stars available for each person. We only suffer poverty because of poor resource utilization!

#16 AdamSummerfield

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Posted 28 October 2006 - 09:31 PM

I believe that in a soceity better than this one (I wont use the term 'perfect'), there is no money. workers are paid in goods and food, and the government has almost unlimited opportunity to build, the only limit is raw materials. But that is another subject.

I think overall, can we agree that the chances of life in our universe; albeit in our galaxy are extremely high?

#17 DukeNukem

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Posted 29 October 2006 - 02:47 AM

The universe is not infinite since the speed of inflation was not infinite

This is probably true. The universe cannot exceed the influence of gravity (which propagates at the speed of light). During the inflationary period the universe (and gravity's reach) increased at the apparent speed of a millions of times faster than light, but that inflation lasted a fraction of a second, and from that point on it is the reach and speed of gravity that likely defines the universe's size. Infinities likely do not exist in nature.

#18 amar

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Posted 29 October 2006 - 03:08 AM

If the universe is not infinite, what exists outside the universe? Nothing? If nothing exists outside the universe, then we enter the realm of solipsist theory because only I exist if there is not an infinity beyond myself. Either way, there is infinity and eternity: infinity of self and/or infinity of cosmos.

#19 caston

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Posted 29 October 2006 - 05:53 AM

Supermassive balls of matter or anti-matter of varying sizes. Every now and again (multi trillion years or so) one collides into another and there is a big explosion. The larger ball (in our case made of matter) leaves extra material that forms the known universe.

Edited by caston, 29 October 2006 - 12:00 PM.


#20 halcyondays

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 01:47 AM

This is probably true.  The universe cannot exceed the influence of gravity (which propagates at the speed of light).  During the inflationary period the universe (and gravity's reach) increased at the apparent speed of a millions of times faster than light, but that inflation lasted a fraction of a second, and from that point on it is the reach and speed of gravity that likely defines the universe's size.  Infinities likely do not exist in nature.


How can we know how fast the universe itself is expanding? We can't see out that far, since it is expanding faster than the speed of light (Otherwise we should be able to see the edge of the Universe). I don't think we can honestly say how Large or fast the Universe is, or what is beyond that. Is the edge of the universe an actual wall, or is it a shockwave? Who really knows. Maybe in 100 billion years we will have the technology to discover these things...

Edited by halcyondays, 31 October 2006 - 02:19 AM.


#21 JonesGuy

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 11:52 AM

It's a rate of acceleration increase that we can measure. By learning the rate at which the acceleration (away from us) increases, we can tell how fast each part of space is moving away merely by knowing its distance.

#22 Lazarus Long

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 02:41 PM

(halcyondays)
Is the edge of the universe an actual wall, or is it a shockwave? Who really knows. Maybe in 100 billion years we will have the technology to discover these things...


Calling it a shockwave would be more appropriate than calling it a wall and yes we can *see it*, you don't have to wait 100 billion years the tech exists today and is getting refined very fast.

QJones is correct, we are measuring the acceleration of that shockwave of heat that is the residual effect of the Big Bang and is called *background radiation* as it accelerates away from us in all directions. We can literally see all the way to that receding wall of background radiation and measure its velocity by a variety of methods the most common being the Doppler Effect .

Is there anything on the other side of it?

That is the big question. The basic argument of modern physics is that nothing exists on the other side of it. By nothing I do not mean vacuum, I mean NOTHING, no space/time. What we are seeing is the actual inflation of this universe (our space/time reality) and that is why many consider our universe finite.

What is discussed in terms of the immediate post moments of the Big Bang is that the universe inflated at a velocity well in excess of the speed of light and then slowed down to below that speed. Once it slowed down, the energy and gravity from all objects in the universe began to propagate and interact.

The prevalent theory is that the farthest we can observe translates into the age of the universe as calculated with respect to the speed of the light traveling to us, as that is how long it has taken the light to cross the extent of the inflation (this is simplified with respect to the modifying factors that are calculated into the figure).

Cosmic microwave background radiation (Wiki)

The Cosmic Background Radiation

Hot Big Bang model

Tests of the Big Bang: The CMB

#23 Lazarus Long

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 02:49 PM

BTW I realize this analysis is counter intuitive for most people as we tend to think of expansion in normal terms where one thing invariably expands *into* something else but in this case we are referring to the expansion of reality, so beyond it there is no reality and that WMAP data I referred to above suggests that we are seeing all the way to about 380,000 years after the beginning of our universe.

So you add that figure to the time it took the *light* (in the form of microwaves on the EM spectrum) of the cosmic background radiation to reach us and you have the age of the universe , at roughly 13.7 billion years.

#24 amar

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:43 PM

Or we just know the age of a small, infinitesimal dab of the universe if infinity theory is correct. When it comes to knowledge of the whole universe, they are only theories, and we can still pick and choose our religion of it.

#25 Lazarus Long

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:57 PM

Amar this is not about religion or belief, it is about consistent structural models and supporting evidence. The evidence is the result of multiple objective testing and independent observation. Good science is never a religion, it benefits far more from constructive criticism and serious, not dogmatic skepticism.

However you could be correct and the infinite universe theory still has adherents that try to rationally explain contradictory data but the data we currently have does not support that model unless the model is redefined in terms that it has not yet found either mathematically or empirically.

I posted the dual bang hypothesis above BTW.

#26 amar

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 06:10 PM

I'm not being dogmatically religious. All I said is that we can believe what we will, since there's no sure explanation of how big the universe (everything) is. Quite the opposite of dogma, I'm being not so sure. All I'm saying is that there's some things we just don't know and can't honestly be sure about. I'm not any more sure of infinity theory than I am of the theory that there's a void at the edge of the universe because you can only see out so far. Good science knows when to say "I don't know."

Edited by amar, 31 October 2006 - 06:21 PM.


#27 halcyondays

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 11:54 PM

Well, if it is a shockwave, then it isn't a real physical barrier. It isn't solid, and we should be able to go beyond that. If it is just an explosion, what happens when it dissipates? Do the laws of physics break down? If there is nothing outside of the Universe how big is that nothing? If it is infinite in size and you have an explosion in infinity, and there is nothing to make that explosion collapse back in on itself, you could argue that the Universe is infinite, or will expand infinitely. If you start talking about multiple universes then you get into trouble with the whole wall of the explosion, because two explosions can and will intermingle. So what does that mean when two universes with two sets of different physics crash into each other?

Seems like there are more questions than answers when you really get into it.

#28 DukeNukem

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Posted 01 November 2006 - 03:12 PM

The "edge" of the universe is likely defined by the reach of gravity, which propagates at light speed. You cannot travel beyond the foundation of gravity, because gravity itself defines space (without gravity, there cannot be space -- they are one and the same).

If we can never exceed light speed we will never be able to try to see for ourselves the so-called universe's edge. But, the fact is, we might be right on that edge and not know it. People assume we're at the center and we need to go 14 billion light years in one direction to reach the edge. Wrong. There may be no edge in the way people think of boundaries. The universe might be like a Mobius Strip that turns in on itself due to gravity/dark matter/dark energy and other forces.

The bottom-line is that too much is still unknown to really give anything close to a definitive answer, but most likely nothing will ever penetrate the edge because we will never find an edge to penetrate -- it doesn't really exit.

#29 Infernity

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Posted 01 November 2006 - 03:38 PM

Well, what's "beyond the universe", is irrelevant, because the universe means- all that is relevant. So, if you think of "beyond the universe", then the universe must accordingly expend, because the fact you thought of the existence of "beyond", makes it relevant, and hence it exists inside the universe. So that is, infinite, the size of our universe...



-Infernity

#30 Lazarus Long

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Posted 01 November 2006 - 04:17 PM

Again it is counter intuitive but if universal inflation is accelerating it is by definition less than C. There is no *other side* with respect to the leading edge. The expansion isn't into a *void* it is expansion by virtue of inflation for space/time that contains gravity. Gravity like light is also subject to that curvature that defines the shape of *reality's container* a.k.a. the universe.

There is nothing on the *otherside* of the leading edge because all that exists is on this side of the *inflation* that is still accelerating. Also what we are looking at is the *trailing edge* from heat that is only 380,000 years after the Big Bang. It is more a wake than the actual *edge* but the physics of what defines the *edge* is still not clearly defined and that is one point on which I think we all agree.

http://www.nature.co...ature02139.html

http://www.nature.co...ature04805.html

The Big Bang violates GRT because the initial inflation exceeded light speed and the subsequent slow down is well below C to allow for the fact that it is accelerating toward C. The other side of this continued *inflation* is not defined by GRT and definitely requires a new order of physics to do so. Gravity also doesn't exist there as we define and understand gravity.

Maybe Hawking radiation exists but that is the same stuff that defies gravity in a Black Hole theoretically. Calculating the velocity of inflation has to do with Hubble's Constant and the red shift.

http://www.nature.co...s/323132a0.html

http://www.nature.co...ature02139.html

http://www.nature.co...ature03282.html

http://www.jhu.edu/n...jun06/shaw.html

Office of News and Information
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Astronomer Is Co-Winner of Million-Dollar Shaw Prize
Johns Hopkins University astrophysicist Adam Riess and two colleagues today were awarded this year's $1 million Shaw Prize in astronomy for their discovery that an unexplained, mysterious "dark energy" is driving an ever-faster expansion of the universe.

Adam Riess
Co-winners of the 2006 prize with Riess are Saul Perlmutter of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory of the University of California, Berkeley, and Brian Schmidt of the Mount Stromlo Observatory of the Australian National University in Canberra.

Riess and Schmidt were leaders of one team that pursued highly difficult and challenging measurements that led to the dark energy discovery in 1998. Perlmutter was the leader of a competing team.
***

"We set out to measure the expansion rate of the universe in the past and compare it to the expansion rate of the present universe, using exploding stars called supernovae," Riess said. They expected to find that gravity — the force by which everything in the universe tugs at everything else and tends to attract it all together — had slowed the rate of expansion over time.

"So it was startling to find that the expansion rate was speeding up," Riess said.

That, he said, sent astronomers back to an idea developed but eventually discarded by Albert Einstein as "my biggest blunder." That idea, Riess said, implied that there might be a sort of "anti-gravity" — that "the vacuum of space had energy in it and that energy could act repulsively and accelerate the expansion of the universe."






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