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Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people


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#1 struct

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Posted 26 October 2006 - 04:59 AM


I just decided to compute roughly a numerical value for my life expectancy at any time.
It won't be the official life expectancy of the country where I live since I don't consider myself an average person of that country.
I aim to live longer than an average person by adjusting to healthier lifestyle. On the other hand I limit my life expectancy at any time to not more than the age of the oldest person on the planet at that time. It's not an overestimation to live as long as the still-living people of the 19th century. My computation of my life expectancy is based on the data that www.grg.org/ is providing about validated supercentenarians. Concretely, this is my own computed life expectancy at any moment:
The average age of 100 validated oldest people living at that moment.


So now my life expectancy is 110.73 years old according to my own calculations.


It would be better if I computed the average age of 100 validated oldest males but I don't know where to get that data. There are only 10 males on that list.
Note that calculating the life expectancy for myself this way does not necessarily mean that I have a finite number of years to live.
Mostly for fun, I'll try to compute my life expectancy, every time I get updated data (every 3 to 10 days) to see if it is changing (I expect to slightly increase every month).
Again this is not scientific derivation.
I am interested to see the increase of the average age of 100 validated oldest living people in the months and years to come.

Edited by struct, 26 October 2006 - 09:55 PM.

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#2 struct

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Posted 28 October 2006 - 04:12 AM

As of Oct. 27, 2006 the average age of 100 validated oldest living people is:

110.67 years old

Two 112-years-old dropped dead 'just to prove me wrong'.
Anyways flactuations of this average are expected, but again I expect the number to increase in the coming months.

#3 william7

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Posted 30 October 2006 - 01:38 AM

If your considering a healthier lifestyle in order to obtain a lengthier lifespan struct, you might consider giving up atheism and studying the Bible instead. Notice the article at http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14287980/ that I've pasted below. You might want to switch to a vegan and calorie restriction diet as well.


Want to make it to 100? You've got to have faith
Survey: Very old say spirituality, hard work, good diet source of long life

Updated: 3:00 p.m. ET Aug 10, 2006
BOSTON - Faith and spirituality were cited most often by people over the age of 100 as the source of their longevity, according to a survey sponsored by a unit of UnitedHealth Group.

In a survey of 100 people between the ages of 100 and 104, 23 percent said faith rather than genes and good medical care were responsible for their long life.

Other factors given included hard work, a healthy diet and living a good, clean life.

Sixty-one percent of those surveyed said there was nothing they would have done more of in their lives and 78 percent said there is nothing they would have done less.

About 13 percent said they wished they had traveled more, 9 percent said they wished they had worked less and 6 percent said they wished they had spent more time with their families.

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#4 struct

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Posted 30 October 2006 - 03:37 AM

Giving up atheism is not an option for me; that's like giving up common sense and rational thinking.
I don't see your point in your refered article; it doesn't say anything about the bible there, but even if you find articles/literature to 'prove' your point don't assume that I accept/support/digest anything that is thrown at me even from credible sources.
Your cited article is as handicapped/lame as the people that are surveyed. No need to argue about the article or your advise, simply I find them as garbage even though you may have 'good' intentions.

#5 william7

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Posted 30 October 2006 - 02:59 PM

You're right. The article doesn't mention the Bible as the source of the faith and spirituality of those surveyed. I suspect that's the case; however, I could be wrong.

May be researchers should be more specific on the origin of centenarians belief systems in the future. What you believe and how you live your life according to those beliefs might prove to be the most dominant or determining factor in longevity.

I wonder how many atheists have made it past 100? If the atheist mode of thinking is superior, shouldn't it eventually show up in longevity research?

#6 imoralityisnear

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Posted 30 October 2006 - 04:42 PM

Not necessarily. Ignorant bliss is helpful if you're in your advanced years. I can imagine that it's the comfort of life after death that allows religious people to live longer. It is probably the stress and fear of death that ironically leads to death in old, but otherwise healthy atheists. An atheist can still be scared of what will follow, even if it is the superior way of thinking (which it is).

#7 struct

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Posted 30 October 2006 - 05:46 PM

>If the atheist mode of thinking is superior, shouldn't it eventually show up in longevity research?

I did not mention anything about atheism being the way for a long life. Personally I would like to live a long life as an atheist. I would not count much on the surveys; there are numerous flaws that make these kind of surveying useless.
There are infinite possible questions you can ask those 100-and-up years old people who could hardly understand the questions (due to their mental acuity). Most of them probably don't even know what a gene is, let alone answering questions about their genes. But even if they were mentally and physically sharp (able to read or hear the question right, interpret it right, giving a well thought answer without any pressure or distraction) their answers should not be interpreted as if they came from the 'wise (wo)men' (they may know nothing why they are living longer). The questions asked are very arbitrary,
for example what if you ask them the following question:

How frequently did you cut your hair?

and 90 % of them answer ' Four times a year'. Should we all cut our hairs four times a year so that we can live longer!!?

#8 Lazarus Long

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Posted 30 October 2006 - 10:44 PM

If your considering a healthier lifestyle in order to obtain a lengthier lifespan struct, you might consider giving up atheism and studying the Bible instead.


Elijah considering that many of the worlds longest lived folks are Muslim (Caucasus and Japan for example) and Buddhist that would be a mistaken assumption.

Interestingly enough just about any faith would do as the validity of the faith is not the issue, only the sincerity of the believer.

#9 william7

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 02:23 AM

I think you might be right Lazarus, but somehow I get the feeling they were interviewing Americans or Europeans. Usually they mention it when the people are from a foreign country or a non-Christian religion.

I understand your point about the sincerity of the believer, not the validity of the faith, being most important. I guess I'm just partial to the Bible - having read it more than any other religious text.

Have you seen Katie Couric's video saying the number of 100-year-olds in America could reach 140,000 in the next decade and their secret may lie in enjoying life? See http://www.cbsnews.c...hannel=national (Couric & Co. / Notebook: Centenarians).

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#10 struct

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Posted 09 November 2006 - 03:28 AM

As of Nov. 8, 2006 the average age of 100 validated oldest living people is:

110.68 years

#11 struct

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Posted 09 November 2006 - 06:22 PM

(As of Nov.9, 2006)

110.69 years

#12 struct

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Posted 14 November 2006 - 03:21 PM

As of ... (see posted date)

110.70

#13 struct

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Posted 18 November 2006 - 05:54 PM

110.71

#14 struct

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Posted 20 November 2006 - 07:05 PM

110.75

This significant increase is due to newly validated supercentenarians.
Notice that not even a month ago this average was 110.73 and dispite the drop to 110.67 it recovered within less than a month to 110.75.

#15 struct

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Posted 21 November 2006 - 06:06 AM

110.73

An 111-old male from France has died.

#16 struct

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Posted 22 November 2006 - 03:38 AM

110.72

Another 111-old male (from US) has died.
A woman 110 from Japan has been added though.

#17 Lazarus Long

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Posted 22 November 2006 - 04:32 AM

Is there a graph of how this has changed over the last few decades? Centuries?

BTW our old friend Leon Kass was headlined on Frontline tonight in a tough take on the *problems* of an aging generation: Living Old .

I do not agree with all the conclusions but the show did manage to highlight some of the serious aspects of being kept alive past the point when life was meaningful to the living. However they did interview a few articulate near and centenarians for their opinions and some were optimistic.

#18 struct

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Posted 22 November 2006 - 05:53 AM

Is there a graph of how this has changed over the last few decades?  Centuries?


I don't think so. Validating supercentenarians and keeping track of them is a recent thing (less than a decade); and the number of the validated supercentenarians is only a fraction of the real number (many of them are not listed due to lack of documentation or unreachability). I may be the first to compute the average age of 100 validated oldest living people and keep track of it (I haven't seen any other doing this kind of averageing even though doesn't take more than 2 min to calculate it). This is a little obsession from my side to have a concrete number that I could keep track easily to see if people are living longer. You could think of the 100 validated oldest living people (100 VOLP) as the crest of the wave (the bulk of the wave in this case is the magnitude of the people coming behind/underneath the crest) and the average age of 100 VOLP as the hight of the wave.

#19 Lazarus Long

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Posted 22 November 2006 - 02:22 PM

Could you construct a graph of the trend over the last decade and longer if you had access to records for Age at Death?

There should be a record out there of the age at death in the public record similar to where you are gathering current data. I would be curious to see the trends over near and long term as well as superimposed on a graph of total births and general longevity. It could even be refined for nationality, race, economics, and gender as a further step once the initial database was established and tested for validity.

I believe the UN has acted for the last few decades as a central repository of public record for some of these demographics. You might start there and with any global analytic database like the CIA Global Facts page or World Almanac.

The reason I would like to see the trends on longevity is to determine if real change has been occurring over the last century or just a trick of statistics.

We are all aware of how the statistics for female longevity have been impacted and why but I suspect that there are more complicated trends to be addressed and also that within those trends might be clear indicators of the obstacles and opportunities we face.

This is not actually a direct indication of what we should specifically do but it is a means of going beyond conjecture, anecdote and suspicion to a well supported analysis of aspects like the social impacts of longevity and any hidden trends.

We take a lot for granted about what *we believe* and *they believe* etc but a carefully established statistical analysis of this type could be very useful. Is this something that you find interesting too?

What would be very useful as well is if the database could be manipulated for specific inputs with user definitions like some interactive models offer. This way we could compare for example post WWII trends of life expectancy for women in Patagonia to women in Great Britain over the same period or at an earlier period equivalent in industrial development.

By carefully comparing individual groups to the larger trends we might start seeing clear models of what works and also what are specific obstacles to overcome. I know on some levels this all sounds way too obvious but apparently there is not a lot of analysis out there you say and that is because to focus has been on the average not an upper target.

If we can demonstrate that the upper target has been significantly changing on a large scale then we have demonstrated that humans truly are living longer, not just that more of them are living longer average life spans.

#20 struct

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Posted 22 November 2006 - 07:45 PM

Could you construct a graph of the trend over the last decade and longer if you had access to records for Age at Death?


I could use some data that grg.org is prividing from 1972 to now, but this analysis that I will try to do involves extrapolating the data especially for the earlier years.
Again I am talking about the average age of 100 validated oldest people at those times. Once I come up with a (simple) model of the shape of the crest I'll use that to do the computation and then post the numbers. It may take me a few days to do that (the actual analysis may take few hours, but I have other things to do during these days)

There should be a record out there of the age at death in the public record similar to where you are gathering current data.  I would be curious to see the trends over near and long term as well as superimposed on a graph of total births and general longevity.  It could even be refined for nationality, race, economics, and gender as a further step once the initial database was established and tested for validity.


This kind of research/analysis is more involved and it requires a full time researcher to deal with it. I tried a year ago to find such data/graphs, but I didn't find anything that was interesting for me. I guess the data exists out there but it's seems that there is no centralization of that information besides some modest compilations that some organizations like grg.org have presented.

#21 struct

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Posted 23 November 2006 - 12:51 AM

110.73

#22 struct

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Posted 23 November 2006 - 09:23 PM

After doing some peak fittings and extrapolations for the data that grg.org has privided for the years 1972-2006 these are the numbers that I came up for the average age of 100 VOLP for those years.

Average Age of 100 Validated Oldest Living People (1972-2006)

1972 => 104.9
1973 => 105.0
1974 => 104.9
1975 => 105.1
1976 => 105.0
1977 => 105.1
1978 => 105.1
1979 => 106.1
1980 => 107.2
1981 => 107.2
1982 (missing)
1983 (missing)
1984 => 107.9
1985 => 108.1
1986 => 108.9
1987 => 108.9
1988 => 108.9
1989 => 109.0
1990 => 108.9
1991 => 109.2
1992 => 109.9
1993 => 109.9
1994 => 109.9
1995-2005 (missing)
2006 => 110.8

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#23 Lazarus Long

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Posted 23 November 2006 - 11:23 PM

Fascinating. If this information can be supported by additional data and separate corroborating sources then it demonstrates what we are all suspecting, a significant modern trend of definitive incrementally increasing longevity.

This is why I think being able to accurately extrapolate over longer periods would be significant because even though I think this trend is in part a consequence of some obvious factors I suspect that as we go back to the early 20th and 19th centuries the rate off change flattens out. I also think it would be helpful if the data showed an increase for many groups and not one group that is skewing the curve but that is the reason for that data to be found and applied to a comparative set of graphs.

#24 struct

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Posted 28 November 2006 - 08:03 PM

What's fascinating is that all the old people of the above calculations have been born before the year 1900.
Wait to see (not literally) when people born in 1920's (not to even mention my generation 1976) enter these calculations.

#25 struct

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Posted 28 November 2006 - 08:04 PM

110.74

#26 struct

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Posted 30 November 2006 - 05:57 AM

110.70

Two 111-years-olds have died. However, the peak of the oldest people has been buldging during this year; more 110-years-olds are showing up (welcome to my chart!!).

Edited by struct, 21 May 2007 - 04:03 AM.


#27 struct

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Posted 30 November 2006 - 06:00 AM

I should have said "more women are showing up in my chart". Not those kind that I like though.

#28 struct

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Posted 01 December 2006 - 07:08 PM

110.71

Edited by struct, 03 December 2006 - 01:10 AM.


#29 struct

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Posted 03 December 2006 - 01:10 AM

110.72

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#30 struct

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Posted 08 December 2006 - 06:10 PM

110.66

(son of a beach). A man (113) and a Scotish woman (111) went to hellven.




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