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Global Warming - The Little Known Underlying Cause


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#1 adapt007

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Posted 03 December 2006 - 07:45 AM


Global warming is a problem where the interests of the individual do not converge with the interests of the community.

This is true at the level of the individual person, the individual corporation and the individual country.

Let me use myself as an example

I am an individual concerned about the global warming problem, and indeed I am a contributor to this problem. Does that mean I should give up any activities which contribute to global warming? No, because the extent to which I contribute to the problem is incomprehensibly small and I know that if I did this I would be at a disadvantage, and that global warming would still happen just as fast minus one second if I e.g stopped driving my car, stopped buying products which required energy intensive manufacturing processes, switched to green energy etc...Changed my habits in such ways as to make my emissions contributions minimal.

But what holds true for me as an individual holds true for pretty much everyone,

One may buy a fuel inefficient vehicle without having any regard for the environmental consequences, knowing that the environmental effects of that vehicle are incomprehensibly small, it is not rational (unless from a moral perspective) to even consider the environmental effects. However, this holds true for all individuals, and the cumulative effect of such activity are potentially disastrous, which naturally elicits the question, would I prefer to have restrictions on my economic activity with regard to its environmental ramifications, and so too everyone else (by the implementation of law) or would I prefer the individual liberty to make economic decisions without environmental restriction? The ratio of people who would prefer the liberty and have the disastrous effects of global warming to the people who would prefer to forgo the liberty so long as everyone else is subject to the same restrictions is undoubtedly small.

What I mean is, it wouldnt be in my interests to reduce my CO2 emissions if it was just me, because it would have little effect (I would be doing it sheerly on a moral basis) but if everyone else in the world agreed to, then yes I would be willing to agree. It would be a more preferential outcome for me if I sacrificed my emissions causing activity and the rest of the world did aswell, than if I did not and the world did not aswell. But here, by an agreement I really mean, by laws. Not everyone would be willing to agree to reduce their emissions, so we would need laws, and we would in majority have to agree to those laws through the democratic system.

But the problem of the interests of the individual not converging with the community is true for countries aswell as individuals. Why would Australia, for example, drastically cut its emissions if there was no such agreement in place as to ensure that other naions did the same? The country would sacrifice economic benefits but would do it to little good effect if it was not joined by other countries. Furthermore, if Australia cut its emissions by e.g placing harsh laws on energy use and the ways in which products can be manufactured, then it would suffer when it came to importing products in the global market in that they would have to be designed specifically to meet very high environmental standards, and the laws of economies of scale would mean that, because those products are being sold to such a small market, those products would be much more expensive than their conventional less environmentally friendly alternatives sold to larger markets like the USA and Europe.

Thus, it is very hard even for an individual country to become environmentally friendly, and few countries would be motivated to do so unless the rest of the world did the same. And because of economies of scale, the cheapest solution to global warming would be where the world undergoes economic transition to environmentally more friendly economies, together.

But because the terms of an agreement which really combatted, and removed global warming as a problem, would likely be impossible to come to in terms of agreeing on what is fair, such an agreement might be destined for failure. The Kyoto Protocol is hardly useful for anything as it excludes developing nations from having to meet standards, and encourages companies to move to those countries where they are not subject to such standards and can therefore produce cheaper. Kyoto is a futile agreement and a much better agreement may be impossible to come to. What then, can be done to combat this complex problem of global warming?

My take is that it doesnt take the whole world agreeing, to implement a solution to global warming. All it takes is for some major industrialized nations to group together and impose laws which force their economies to restructure in an environmentally efficient way, then threaten other nations who don't agree to do the same, with tariffs. If a country does not agree to meet certain environmental standards then that country would get tariff's imposed on them, and the severity of the tarriffs should represent a greater cost than if that country imposed laws to cause its economy to restructure to be environmentally friendly. Thus, the logic of any country not agreeing would be obvious, they would agree to meet the standards set upon them by the major industrialized nations because it would be cheaper for them. If this path was followed by the world, I think we could solve global warming without having to get a global consensus on what is fair in terms of what country has what emissions allowance and how fast should countries restructure.

The justification for the tariffs would be that each nation who emits large amounts of C02 is damaging the property and future viability of the land, and stability of the social institutons of every other nation and the global trading climate. Thus, any nation which contributes to global warming can be seen as attacking every other nation.

And of course, the faster we act, the cheaper it will be.

Just a note that I am using my above post for the basis of an assignment for university, so if someone from Monash is reading this as they have done a google search for verification purposes only to find that my assignment is very similar to this article, it is not because I have plagiarized it, it just so happened that my personal thoughts in this post I wrote back in December were very appropriate for the assignment.

Edited by adapt007, 25 March 2007 - 11:48 AM.


#2 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 December 2006 - 03:01 PM

I believe that the set up of a tariff barrier around carbon markets is a pretty standard (and common sense) idea, though I can't find a reference at the moment. Anybody else know any details?

#3 Athanasios

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Posted 03 December 2006 - 03:43 PM

What you describe sounds much like the tragedy of the commons:

http://en.wikipedia...._of_the_commons


Unfortunately a lot of common sense ideas, like tariffs, do not work out in economics because the market is so dynamic. I think that giving money away works better, as in subsidizing build-out of environmentally sound infrastructure, etc. When imposing a negative, the companies who will survive are the ones who found ways around it. Directing the market is much easier than controlling it.

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#4 xanadu

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Posted 03 December 2006 - 10:14 PM

It's in large part a matter of ethics. I own a small fuel efficient car. I buy green products and recycle. I know this has a miniscule effect on the world's situation as a whole but I know it has some effect. There are many like me and some go much farther. The effect of this movement is not so small and though it will not by itself solve the problem, it does help. It's better to light a single candle than to curse the darkness.

#5 biknut

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Posted 09 December 2006 - 05:55 AM

I'm sorry, I don't believe in global warming. If there is warming I don't think man is causing it. Check this shizz out.

http://epw.senate.go.....old Media.pdf

Skepticism that human C02 emissions are creating a “climate catastrophe” has grown in recent times. In September, renowned French geophysicists and Socialist Party member Claude Allegre, converted from a believer in manmade catastrophic global warming to a climate skeptic. This latest defector from the global warming camp caps a year in which numerous scientific studies have bolstered the claims of climate skeptics.

Scientific studies that debunk the dire predictions of human-caused global warming have continued to accumulate and many believe the new science is shattering the media-promoted scientific “consensus” on climate alarmism.

#6 jackinbox

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Posted 09 December 2006 - 02:52 PM

I'm sorry, I don't believe in global warming. If there is warming I don't think man is causing it. Check this shizz out.


Then, you don't believe in science.
Scientific opinion

#7 Mind

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Posted 09 December 2006 - 03:31 PM

Be careful with "consensus" Jackinbox. Consensus does not equal "truth". I would much rather evaluate the theories and methods than the "number of scientists that agree". That being said, the science behind the theorized Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is fairly sound, but quite incomplete. Just this year it has been reported that global ocean temps have decreased slightly, methane emissions have also decreased slightly, and nearly all of the long-term global climate models have a serious flaw (they don't account for a poleward shift in the antarctic westerly winds, which would slowdown AGW).

All of these were either unforeseen (model flaw) or were unexpected and inexplicable (methane & ocean temps). All of the physical interactions that account for the earth's climate have been described as "maddeningly complex", and researchers are no where near accounting for everything in current models. So when people talk with such a elitist air of certainty that the earth is "doomed" because of AGW, it rubs me the wrong way.

I live in the a place that experiences four seasons and I interact with the public on a daily basis. Believe me, most people hate winter. Really "hate" it. If I had to break it down, I would say 50% really hate it, 30% dislike it, but they put up with it, and 20% enjoy snow and cold for a few months out of the year. For the vast majority of people (in my neck of the woods) the last couple of decades that have been wonderful because the winters have been mild with less snow than usual. They aren't concerned about AGW because they like the effects thus far. There have been no serious drawbacks. They don't live near the ocean. The environment is doing just fine. A few things have changed (like robins don't go south for the winter, and water levels on the great lakes were down for a couple of years), but overall, things are fine.

On the macro scale things are not too bad either. During the last century of the theorized AGW the human population has expanded by over a billion. Poverty and hunger (as a percentage of population) have gone down. Life expectancy has increased dramatically. We have been treated to the "sky is falling" AGW media blitz for over 2 decades now, and yet people are generally doing fine (they are not encountering anything bad that hasn't also happened in the past).

The main problem I with the AGW blitz is that it has been hijacked by political forces (I lean libertarian and I live quite "green" by choice, like xanadu). AGW has become a platform for socialist control. Some people resist AGW theories simply because of the fear of tyrannical socialism.

Overall, I am not a "big" skeptic on AGW. I am a "small" skeptic. I have seen enough "end of the world" environmental predictions to know better this time around.

#8 jackinbox

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Posted 09 December 2006 - 05:10 PM

Nice post Mind. I was too lazy to write an argumentation (it takes me so long to write in English). Maybe the global warming is going to be a good thing for some places in the world but for most of it, negative effects are expected. As en example, Australia suffered in 2006 its worse drought ever (a 1000-year drought event). Global warming could make this kind of event more frequent. On the economy side, the Stern report exposed the anticipated cost of global warming and how much the economy will suffers.

#9 Mind

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Posted 09 December 2006 - 05:18 PM

Your English is pretty good. I understand what you are writing. Thanks for the reply.

#10 jackinbox

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Posted 09 December 2006 - 05:23 PM

I would like to add a comment about the feeling people have that environmentalist have been alarmist for so long. To fact is that they have been right most of the time. In Quebec, they warned us for long time that the forests were over exploited but the industry denied it. Guess what? The industry is now in crisis because the resource is harder and harder to get. The same thing happened with fish stock. If there was not pressure from environmentalist, what would have been done to control acid rain and the ozone layer depletion? Smog? etc. etc...

#11 xanadu

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Posted 09 December 2006 - 09:35 PM

I don't see what all the "controversy" is about. Anyone can test global warming. Take a glass box with various items in it, put it in the sun and measure the temperature it reaches. Then, inject methane or CO2 into the box, leave in sun and measure the temp. You will find the temperature rises with the greenhouse gases. Take the earth, inject greenhouse gases and the same result, temp rises.

jackinbox, you have many good points but the big polluters and exploiters pay for propaganda and many people fall for it. Fortunately, some of us see the truth.

#12 biknut

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 12:27 AM

the big polluters and exploiters pay for propaganda and many people fall for it. Fortunately, some of us see the truth.


Seems like for about the last twenty years most of the propaganda has been about rising global warming. Many people fall for it, like you.

I'm not saying there's no global warming. I'm not saying there is either. I've read they have detected global warming on every planet in our solar system. I don't think man is responsible for it.

#13 biknut

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 05:19 PM

This report will be of interest for UN believers. They aren't ready to admit they're wrong about Golbal Warming but at least they're moving in the right direction.

This is however a good indicator of which side most of the propaganda has been on the last twenty years.


UN downgrades man's impact on the climate
Richard Gray, Science Correspondent, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 1:32am GMT 10/12/2006

Mankind has had less effect on global warming than previously supposed, a United Nations report on climate change will claim next year.

http://www.telegraph.../nclimate10.xml

#14 jackinbox

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 05:37 PM

From the article you submitted :

“Scientists insist that the lower estimates for sea levels and the human impact on global warming are simply a refinement due to better data on how climate works rather than a reduction in the risk posed by global warming.”

“It also says that the overall human effect on global warming since the industrial revolution is less than had been thought, due to the unexpected levels of cooling caused by aerosol sprays, which reflect heat from the sun.”

“Climate change sceptics are expected to seize on the revised figures as evidence that action to combat global warming is less urgent.”

The “propagandists” are lowering they target because they refine their models? Is it what you say? Curious way to do propaganda…

#15 biknut

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 06:25 PM

  Curious way to do propaganda…


Not really. When a lot of people start to question your old propaganda, it makes since to come out with new propaganda that's more believable, yet still supports your propaganda.

#16 jackinbox

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 07:37 PM

I can’t imagine the size of this conspiracy! Must be a real challenge to have all the scientists to participate to it! I guess that what the professional association are for. Science must be terribly corrupted…

#17 biknut

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 08:39 PM

  Science must be terribly corrupted…


I wouldn't exactly call it corrupted. The problem is more about if you challenge the establishment, your career goes nowhere so a lot of scientists keep their mouths shut for political (PC) reasons.

#18 xanadu

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 08:50 PM

So I guess it follows that since the scientists are making all this up and being intimidated into going along with it, as biknut claims, then all the data must also be faked. That means not only the scientists are in on the conspiracy but countless other people who gathered the data and reviewed it are also in on it. There must be millions of people sworn to secrecy to keep such a lie going. Couldn't anyone, even someone not in on the big conspiracy make their own measurements of temperature and so on and give it away? Are there squads of killers that go out and murder them before they can blow the whistle? In a world where not even Brittany Spears can keep her beaver secret, a huge world wide conspiracy like that wouldn't last as long as a snowball in hell. Better come up with another answer, biknut.

#19 biknut

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 09:14 PM

Well I don't know very much about it, but from what I've seen and heard environmentalists and tree huggers are some of the most militant left wingers around. Most universities seem to be populated by left wing faculty members.

Most graduating environmental scientists are conservative?
Most graduating environmental scientists are liberal?

I think this forum is a good place to find out the answer to these questions.

#20 jackinbox

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 09:26 PM

To quote Colbert: "Reality as a well-known liberal bias". Ever asked your self why universities are often considered to be liberal? As far as I know, there is no screening test to rule out conservatives.

#21 biknut

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 09:48 PM

To quote Colbert: "Reality as a well-known liberal bias". Ever asked your self why universities are often considered to be liberal? As far as I know, there is no screening test to rule out conservatives.


I'm glad that's settled.

#22 biknut

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 03:22 AM

This is a gas. Talk about your little known underlying cause. I told you it wasn't man.

Cow 'emissions' more damaging to planet than CO2 from cars
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor
Published: 10 December 2006

Meet the world's top destroyer of the environment. It is not the car, or the plane,or even George Bush: it is the cow.

A United Nations report has identified the world's rapidly growing herds of cattle as the greatest threat to the climate, forests and wildlife. And they are blamed for a host of other environmental crimes, from acid rain to the introduction of alien species, from producing deserts to creating dead zones in the oceans, from poisoning rivers and drinking water to destroying coral reefs.

The 400-page report by the Food and Agricultural Organisation, entitled Livestock's Long Shadow, also surveys the damage done by sheep, chickens, pigs and goats. But in almost every case, the world's 1.5 billion cattle are most to blame. Livestock are responsible for 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming, more than cars, planes and all other forms of transport put together.

http://news.independ...icle2062484.ece

#23 jackinbox

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 03:41 AM

... I told you it wasn't man....

A United Nations report has identified the world's rapidly growing herds of cattle as the greatest threat to the climate, forests and wildlife. ^
entitled Livestock's Long Shadow, also surveys the damage done by sheep, chickens, pigs and goats.


And who is responsible for the rapidly growing heards of cattle???? "Man-caused" doesn't means that the CO2 come from our ass but from our actions.

#24 biknut

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 03:49 AM

So thay claim cow farts are causing global warming and you believe it. Is there anything scientists can calim about global warming that you don't believe, besides there isn't any?

News flash,

Dinosaurs caused global warming.

Eating beans causes global warming.

Aged garlic causes global warming. [:o]

#25 jackinbox

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 04:23 AM

So thay claim cow farts are causing global warming and you believe it. Is there anything scientists can calim about global warming that you don't believe, besides there isn't any?



First, I didn't say it. I just pointed to your flawed argument. Second, the article say that "Livestock are responsible for 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming". I can't confirm this but it make sense. Half of the methane is due to human activity and livestock account for one third of it. Can you explain why it's so hard to believe? You seem to know so much about the subject...

#26 biknut

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 04:52 AM

This report was probably commissioned by Colonel Sanders.

#27 adapt007

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 07:50 AM

Biknut, for most of us who don't know or understand the full depths of the science regarding global warming as ourselves, what we have to go on is scientific consensus. Your belief is against the grain, and because you are not a scientist I am inclined to think that you don't have the evidence to justify that belief

The vast majority of the scientific community contends that global warming is primarily a result of human activity or very likely.

If it is even not certain but just very likely that it is occuring as a result of human activity, then it would still be more preferable from most peoples perspectives I think, to take the necessary steps to avoid what negative consaquences we can.

You sound like your concerned about left wingers, well generally I am a conservative and pro-freedom but this issue is simply not something where a high degree of freedom (in regard to emissions) will be preferable to having that freedom restricted to avert the consaquences.

#28 biknut

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 05:26 PM

Biknut, for most of us who don't know or understand the full depths of the science regarding global warming as ourselves, what we have to go on is scientific consensus. Your belief is against the grain, and because you are not a scientist I am inclined to think that you don't have the evidence to justify that belief

The vast majority of the scientific community contends that global warming is primarily a result of human activity or very likely.

If it is even not certain but just very likely that it is occuring as a result of human activity, then it would still be more preferable from most peoples perspectives I think, to take the necessary steps to avoid what negative consaquences we can.

You sound like your concerned about left wingers, well generally I am a conservative and pro-freedom but this issue is simply not something where a high degree of freedom (in regard to emissions) will be preferable to having that freedom restricted to avert the consaquences.


Yours is a intelligent reply. I understand your concern., it's my world too. I believe we are warming. I'm not at all ready to believe we have a handle on the why.

I don't believe cows or man are causing this. On the other hand Jupiter might be one big fart.

http://www.mos.org/c...ticle/80/9.html

Global Warming on Mars?

A study of the ice caps on Mars may show that the red planet is experiencing a warming trend.

http://web.mit.edu/n...2002/pluto.html

Pluto is undergoing global warming, researchers find
October 9, 2002

BIRMINGHAM, Ala.--Pluto is undergoing global warming, as evidenced by a three-fold increase in the planet's atmospheric pressure during the past 14 years, a team of astronomers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Williams College, the University of Hawaii, Lowell Observatory and Cornell University announced in a press conference today at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's (AAS) Division for Planetary Sciences in Birmingham, AL.

http://www.space.com...504_red_jr.html

The latest images could provide evidence that Jupiter is in the midst of a global change that can modify temperatures by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit on different parts of the globe.

The study was led jointly by Imke de Pater and Philip Marcus of University of California, Berkeley.

"The storm is growing in altitude," de Pater said. "Before when they were just ovals they didn't stick out above the clouds. Now they are rising."

This growth signals a temperature increase in that region, she said.

#29 jackinbox

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 06:29 PM

The articles you submitted underline the fact that it's not related at all with the earth's global warming, so, it's irrelevant to this debate:


“Jay Pasachoff, an astronomy professor at Williams College, said that Pluto's global warming was "likely not connected with that of the Earth. The major way they could be connected is if the warming was caused by a large increase in sunlight. But the solar constant--the amount of sunlight received each second--is carefully monitored by spacecraft, and we know the sun's output is much too steady to be changing the temperature of Pluto."

Pluto's orbit is much more elliptical than that of the other planets, and its rotational axis is tipped by a large angle relative to its orbit. Both factors could contribute to drastic seasonal changes. "


“The global change cycle began when the last of the white oval-shaped storms formed south of the Great Red Spot in 1939. As the storms started to merge between 1998 and 2000, the mixing of heat began to slow down at that latitude and has continued slowing ever since.
The movement of heat from the equator to Jupiter's south pole is expected to stop at 34 degrees southern latitude, where Red Spot Jr. is forming.
This will create a big wall and stop the mixing of heat and airflow, the thinking goes. As a result, areas around the equator become warmer, while the poles can start to cool down. “

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#30 biknut

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 07:06 PM

jackinbox, So you think that's a good explaintion why every planet's getting warmer and no planet is getting colder.

You really got this global warming thing all figured out.




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