Hillary can win the demo nomination with a plurality of the demo vote. The extreme left can carry her to the nomination against a fractured field. The left can not make her win in the general election. Extreme leftists did not win in 06 and the disgust with Iraq, which fueled the 06 turn around will not help Hillary. She did vote for the war and has not fully repudiated that vote. Many still remember her attempt to nationalize health care. She is not someone I would want to see running things. I have only touched on some of her negatives. If the only choices were Hill or Obama, I'd take Obama. He at least says the right things, Hill doesn't even do that. Despite decades of liberal advances, a black can not be elected at this point in time. That's why I say the demos are on a collision course with disaster and no one can talk them out of it.
Anyone care to bet on D vs R in 08?
I agree with you about Hillary, but not necessarily about Obama. In any event we will just have to wait and see.
If you really want to bet on political elections, you can go to
InTrade (which is under the same banner as
TradeSports, but for things other than sports). It is basically something similar to a stock market where people can buy "stock" in lots of different things (sports, politics, legal, etc.). (to see the politics, click on "Politics" on the lefthand side) It looks like the Dems are currently trading at about 57 and the Republicans are only at about 42. (everything is out of 100; for instance if you bet on the Republicans, each share would be $42, but if they won you would get $100, or you could sell it at a higher or lower price before the election and make or lose money) If you are really certain, you can make some serious money if you bought enough shares.
(I think they were 100% accurate in predicting the outcomes of the 2006 elections, btw, although that was right before the elections, they will fluctuate a lot before then)
Since this is the Democratic nomination thread, here are the current top 4 in the Democratic primary market (based on last trade):
2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 51.9
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 23.0
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 12.5
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 6.6
Interesting since Gore still hasn't declared he is running.