Something called dysgenics may mean the best laid plans (i.e. immortality) may never come to fruition. The human race has been declining in both intelligence and concientiousness. These two traits are important not only in maintaining a modern civilization but also in advancing science and human knowledge. In modern times, unfortunately, technology means that intelligence is no longer evolutionary advantageous. Just because i personally have a certain intelligence, concientousness and ability to create wealth does not mean my children or grandchildren will. Selection pressures have relaxed and intelligence is no longer of great utility. In fact if you are of a lower intelligence you are less likely to be able to use birth control successfully. This means people of lower intelligence have more kids than those who are intelligent and use birth control. People who are less concientious are more likely to have lots of kids even if they have no way of being able to take care of them financially.
Dysgenics is happening in every human population now. The drop is around 0.5 to 1.0 I.Q. point per generation, which is quite significant. That means in a generation the amount of people able to carry out the necessary scientific research for progress is dropping. In the U.S. as college professors die out, their knowledge in some sense dies out with them. They may not be replaced by people with an equivalent intelligence. Libraries will be filled with hard earned knowledge, but eventually nobody in the population will be smart enough to be able to use it or understand it. There is however what is called the flynn effect. The flynn effect is a rise in I.Q. scores that has occured accross the entire world. However these I.Q. increases are probably due to better nutrition and seemed to have already leveled off in the 1990's (at least in european countries).
The countries where the most scientific progress occurs perversely have the lowest birthrates. South korea, japan, tawain and europe all have birth rates which are too low to sustain their population levels. Their populations are expected to decrease in the future. Without huge increases in life expectancy eventually enough intelligent people will die off so that progress in science will begin to slow, then possibly stop altogether. In the near future selling nutritional supplements will have become illegal (possibly within the next year). Of course we'll have some really smart and driven people with a personal stash of supplements like ray kurzweil who'll live to 130, but he will be in the minority. There simply won't be enough people who have the forsight needed to extend their life significantly.
In the U.S. we currently have politicians that are offering socialism in disguise. Their plan is nicely called "universal healthcare". It sounds great, but what does "universal healthcare" really mean? It simply entails massive transfers of wealth from people who are productive to those who are unproductive. Sure these costs will be hidden and the government will to its best to fool us into thinking its a great system. The U.S. is currently the leader in medical research and why is that? Because we are the only country that isn't weighed down by huge government beuracracies that will take anyone's wealth as soon as they try to create it (i.e. France). We will definitely get universal healthcare, that's a given. The Democrats will kill any innovation by reducing the profits that biotechnology/pharmaceutical companies are allowed to get. The cognitive elite of this country will be forced to give an ever increasing amount of their money to the poor low I.Q. population. This will be justified on the basis of the unfairness of inequality. This means that medicines that will extend life will never get created. The government beuracracy will become so bloated that no technology will be adopted on a mass scale. In another 60 years a low I.Q. populist leader will take over the U.S. and institute socialism just like Hugo Chavez is doing now in Venezuela.
A democracy allows decision to be made by the masses, not necessarily those who are the most intelligent. The cognitive elite who run all the technology will be overthrown by the general population. Socialism is one of those things that sounds great especially to people with low intelligence. Socialism says you can get something for nothing. So after the elite is overthrown society will continue for a few months, but eventually everything will begin to crumble. Due to enormous problems such as famine, overpopulation and global warming most of the world's population will die out. People will be just too plain stupid to be able to save themselves and will have killed off all the smart people who could have saved them.
This story i've told is somewhat of an exaggeration but many of the problems may very well come up in the future. I am optimistic that we will avoid these problems by adopting technologies that will artificially enhance our own intelligence. Things such as pharmaceuticals, gene therapy, brain-machine connections may be able to do this. I think ultimately though, what i am most worried about is when someone comes along who does not have the same level of intelligence as those who came before him and uses technology that he really doesn't understand to do something for which he does not comprehend the consequences. Okay I know that's a mouthful but let me explain. Think for instance of the 9/11 highjackers. These people did not have the intelligence, forsight or concientousness to create the airplanes they flew or build the buildings they crashed into. Religious and mystical thinking lead them to believe that by killing 3,000 people they would be rewarded as martyrs. Low I.Q. and hyper religiosity are actually being selected for by evolutionary processes. People who are very religious and have a lower I.Q. may end up having the most children. When this type of person is allowed access to technology created by a previous generation who had more forsight/intelligence/secularism I fear that once again disaster may result.
Edited by hrc579, 22 June 2007 - 04:52 PM.
