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Global Cooling


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#91 biknut

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Posted 14 August 2007 - 10:20 PM

I'm sure big oil has an impact, I just don't think it's all that big. There's probably a lot more funding to keep up the gw lies than there is to try and get to the truth. Of course everyone has different ideas what this means.

Why do you equate peer-reviewed science with global warming lies? If there's a good case against the human induced warming, it will be debated in the scientific journals, not in the media.

What's much more insidious are scientific organizations and schools that try to censure and cut off funding or slander and ruin the careers of scientists that have different views.
Luckily there are still scientists brave enough to state their views, so I'm sure the truth will come out in time, but we have a long way to go.

Almost every scientific article states the views of the researchers that produced it. What exactly have these global warming sceptics published and why do you think that the mainstream science and the majority of researchers got it all wrong?


There's plenty of peer-reviewed science that points out the GW lies. Unless I go to the trouble to find and post it here you probably won't ever see it because main stream media doesn't really want you to see it. I've already posted a lot of in this thread and you didn't even see any of it.

#92 platypus

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Posted 14 August 2007 - 10:52 PM

There's plenty of peer-reviewed science that points out the GW lies. Unless I go to the trouble to find and post it here you probably won't ever see it because main stream media doesn't really want you to see it. I've already posted a lot of in this thread and you didn't even see any of it.

So how come the scientific discussion in the top-notch journals widely accepts GW? Sure there must be some peer-reviewed studies supporting the anti-GW position but what exactly makes you think that the scientific method has largely failed in the GW case, in your opinion? It rarely pays to place your bets on fringe science, even though in some cases the fringe may turn out to be right.

#93 biknut

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Posted 14 August 2007 - 11:11 PM

There's plenty of peer-reviewed science that points out the GW lies. Unless I go to the trouble to find and post it here you probably won't ever see it because main stream media doesn't really want you to see it. I've already posted a lot of in this thread and you didn't even see any of it.

So how come the scientific discussion in the top-notch journals widely accepts GW? Sure there must be some peer-reviewed studies supporting the anti-GW position but what exactly makes you think that the scientific method has largely failed in the GW case, in your opinion? It rarely pays to place your bets on fringe science, even though in some cases the fringe may turn out to be right.


I'm pretty sure it has something to do with this.

proponents of man-made global warming fears that enjoy a monumental funding advantage over the skeptics. (A whopping $50 billion to a paltry $19 million for skeptics — yes, that is billion to million

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#94 platypus

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Posted 14 August 2007 - 11:35 PM

There's plenty of peer-reviewed science that points out the GW lies. Unless I go to the trouble to find and post it here you probably won't ever see it because main stream media doesn't really want you to see it. I've already posted a lot of in this thread and you didn't even see any of it.

So how come the scientific discussion in the top-notch journals widely accepts GW? Sure there must be some peer-reviewed studies supporting the anti-GW position but what exactly makes you think that the scientific method has largely failed in the GW case, in your opinion? It rarely pays to place your bets on fringe science, even though in some cases the fringe may turn out to be right.


I'm pretty sure it has something to do with this.

proponents of man-made global warming fears that enjoy a monumental funding advantage over the skeptics. (A whopping $50 billion to a paltry $19 million for skeptics — yes, that is billion to million


I don't believe that for a second. A brilliant rebuttal for a published scientific paper can be produced with a one to two man-month effort. Surely building satellite systems is expensive, but when they are operational, the data is essentially free for all scientists.

#95 biknut

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Posted 15 August 2007 - 04:39 AM

There's plenty of peer-reviewed science that points out the GW lies. Unless I go to the trouble to find and post it here you probably won't ever see it because main stream media doesn't really want you to see it. I've already posted a lot of in this thread and you didn't even see any of it.

So how come the scientific discussion in the top-notch journals widely accepts GW? Sure there must be some peer-reviewed studies supporting the anti-GW position but what exactly makes you think that the scientific method has largely failed in the GW case, in your opinion? It rarely pays to place your bets on fringe science, even though in some cases the fringe may turn out to be right.


I'm pretty sure it has something to do with this.

proponents of man-made global warming fears that enjoy a monumental funding advantage over the skeptics. (A whopping $50 billion to a paltry $19 million for skeptics — yes, that is billion to million


I don't believe that for a second. A brilliant rebuttal for a published scientific paper can be produced with a one to two man-month effort. Surely building satellite systems is expensive, but when they are operational, the data is essentially free for all scientists.


You seem pretty convinced that GW is caused by man. I read all the reports I can find but I'm still not convinced.

Was there a convincing study you saw that made you believe in GW caused by man, or is it just that you've just seen so many that you came to that conclusion?

Have you not seen any studies that made you think otherwise? Maybe I could show you some.

#96 biknut

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Posted 15 August 2007 - 04:55 AM

This is kind of interesting.

The Washington Post: "Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt."

"great masses of ice have now been replaced by moraines of earth and stones," and "at many points well-known glaciers have entirely disappeared."

From a Page 2 headline in the Nov. 2, 1922 edition.

http://www.washingto...ION02/108140063

#97 platypus

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Posted 15 August 2007 - 03:00 PM

You seem pretty convinced that GW is caused by man. I read all the reports I can find but I'm still not convinced.

Was there a convincing study you saw that made you believe in GW caused by man, or is it just that you've just seen so many that you came to that conclusion?

Have you not seen any studies that made you think otherwise? Maybe I could show you some.

Well, it's indisputable that the climate is changing rapidly and that the changes seem to be accelerating. Human influence on land-cover patterns and atmosphere is also indisputable, it is the 'smoking gun' that can be used explain at least a part of the recent changes. There are no other equally credible explanations for the observed changes, at least not at the moment. Personally I would find it exceedingly strange if human activities did not influence the climate.

#98 biknut

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Posted 15 August 2007 - 04:01 PM

Well, it's indisputable that the climate is changing rapidly and that the changes seem to be accelerating. Human influence on land-cover patterns and atmosphere is also indisputable, it is the 'smoking gun' that can be used explain at least a part of the recent changes. There are no other equally credible explanations for the observed changes, at least not at the moment. Personally I would find it exceedingly strange if human activities did not influence the climate.


I agree that the climate is changing. The climate always changes so if it stopped changing that would be unusual. I disagree that the changes are accelerating. A better case can be made that climate change is slowing down. Studies show that the climate has changed rapidly in the past.

The hottest year in the last 30 was 1998. The hottest year in America this century was 1934? Back in January it was predicted that this year would be the hottest on record. That's not going to happen. It's been hotter in the past than it is now.

Human influence on land-cover patterns and atmosphere is also indisputable,


Maybe so but that doesn't mean it caused any climate change.

There are no other equally credible explanations for the observed changes


You read this somewhere right? There has been rapid change in the past. That makes me question this statement. Look back in this thread, I've already posted studies that bring this statement into question.

#99 platypus

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Posted 15 August 2007 - 04:30 PM

I agree that the climate is changing. The climate always changes so if it stopped changing that would be unusual. I disagree that the changes are accelerating. A better case can be made that climate change is slowing down. Studies show that the climate has changed rapidly in the past.

The fact that climate has changed rapidly in the past makes the current situation doubly worrying. Like someone said: "climate is an angry beast and we're poking it with sticks". Adding warmth to a system that is unstable can have unanticipated consequences. We have petabytes of data about the environment, if people are not warming up the atmosphere, why nobody has been able to figure out what the real culprit is? It's not the Sun nor the cosmic rays, that's pretty certain.

I happen to see a lot of environmental data in my work and the change really seems to be accelerating. It can be argued though that a few decades ago the environment was observed less so the changes went unnoticed. Anyway, sea level rise, changes in the velocities of huge ice streams in Greenland, collapse of huge ice-shelf in recent history, the rapidly disappearing arctic sea ice, climate changes noticed by indigenous populations in the arctic etc. seems to indicate the the change really is picking up speed. When the arctic permafrost starts spewing huge amounts of methane into the atmoshere due to melting, the feedback it causes can be nasty. Disappearing sea-ice also has a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism build in. The situation does not look good, and it looks decidedly worse than only 10 years ago. I'm worried that in only 10 years everyone is forced to agree that yes, the change really is picking up speed.

#100 biknut

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Posted 16 August 2007 - 05:46 AM

I agree that the climate is changing. The climate always changes so if it stopped changing that would be unusual. I disagree that the changes are accelerating. A better case can be made that climate change is slowing down. Studies show that the climate has changed rapidly in the past.

The fact that climate has changed rapidly in the past makes the current situation doubly worrying. Like someone said: "climate is an angry beast and we're poking it with sticks". Adding warmth to a system that is unstable can have unanticipated consequences. We have petabytes of data about the environment, if people are not warming up the atmosphere, why nobody has been able to figure out what the real culprit is? It's not the Sun nor the cosmic rays, that's pretty certain.

I happen to see a lot of environmental data in my work and the change really seems to be accelerating. It can be argued though that a few decades ago the environment was observed less so the changes went unnoticed. Anyway, sea level rise, changes in the velocities of huge ice streams in Greenland, collapse of huge ice-shelf in recent history, the rapidly disappearing arctic sea ice, climate changes noticed by indigenous populations in the arctic etc. seems to indicate the the change really is picking up speed. When the arctic permafrost starts spewing huge amounts of methane into the atmoshere due to melting, the feedback it causes can be nasty. Disappearing sea-ice also has a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism build in. The situation does not look good, and it looks decidedly worse than only 10 years ago. I'm worried that in only 10 years everyone is forced to agree that yes, the change really is picking up speed.


Greenland doesn't seem to be loosing ice.

The total Greenland mass seems to be stable or slightly growing [Zwally et al., 2005].

http://meteo.lcd.lu/...nd_warming.html

#101 platypus

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Posted 16 August 2007 - 07:17 AM

I agree that the climate is changing. The climate always changes so if it stopped changing that would be unusual. I disagree that the changes are accelerating. A better case can be made that climate change is slowing down. Studies show that the climate has changed rapidly in the past.

The fact that climate has changed rapidly in the past makes the current situation doubly worrying. Like someone said: "climate is an angry beast and we're poking it with sticks". Adding warmth to a system that is unstable can have unanticipated consequences. We have petabytes of data about the environment, if people are not warming up the atmosphere, why nobody has been able to figure out what the real culprit is? It's not the Sun nor the cosmic rays, that's pretty certain.

I happen to see a lot of environmental data in my work and the change really seems to be accelerating. It can be argued though that a few decades ago the environment was observed less so the changes went unnoticed. Anyway, sea level rise, changes in the velocities of huge ice streams in Greenland, collapse of huge ice-shelf in recent history, the rapidly disappearing arctic sea ice, climate changes noticed by indigenous populations in the arctic etc. seems to indicate the the change really is picking up speed. When the arctic permafrost starts spewing huge amounts of methane into the atmoshere due to melting, the feedback it causes can be nasty. Disappearing sea-ice also has a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism build in. The situation does not look good, and it looks decidedly worse than only 10 years ago. I'm worried that in only 10 years everyone is forced to agree that yes, the change really is picking up speed.


Greenland doesn't seem to be loosing ice.

The total Greenland mass seems to be stable or slightly growing [Zwally et al., 2005].

http://meteo.lcd.lu/...nd_warming.html


There are new results in after that study, see this landmark study by Rignot & Kanagaratman:

http://www.sciencema...ct/311/5763/986

The worrying results are that mass loss has increased dramatically during the last 10 years. The current explanation is that the warming Arctic has increased glacier surface melt during summer, and that the meltwater ends up at the bottom of the glacier-stream lubricating it, causing a radical speedup (can be several times) in the huge ice-streams that drain the ice-sheet. This acceleration has affected ice-streams further and further north as the Arctic warming has increased. This is very worrying on many levels to say the least! The authors have conducted a similar study on Antarctica and the preliminary results (under peer-review) also show increased ice-sheet flow during summer in the Antarctic peninsula - it is probable that Antarctica is missing ice too. This is an area of intense study at the moment, this is after all the International Polar Year.

#102 Lazarus Long

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Posted 16 August 2007 - 02:49 PM

http://news.bbc.co.u...ure/6944401.stm


Arctic sea ice set to hit new low
By Mark Kinver
Monday, 13 August 2007, 16:52 GMT 17:52 UK

Arctic sea ice is expected to retreat to a record low by the end of this summer, scientists have predicted.

Measurements made by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) showed the extent of sea ice on 8 August was almost 30% below the long-term average.

Because the region's melting season runs until the middle of September, scientists believe this summer will end with the lowest ice cover on record.

Researchers have forecast ice-free summers in the Arctic by 2040.

NSIDC data showed sea ice extent for 8 August as 5.8 million sq km (2.2 million sq miles), compared to the 1979-2000 August average of 7.7 million sq km (3.0 million sq miles).

The current record low was recorded in 2005, when Arctic sea ice covered just 5.32 million sq km (2.09 million sq miles).  (excerpt)

Posted Image


I think it is highly disingenuous by anyone to claim that humans have no impact over climate, virtually all studies demonstrate the opposite and almost no studies demonstrates no impact by humans. In fact the earliest levels of impact can be traced in the fossil record to when humans harnessed fire. It is a false dichotomy to argue that climate change is either caused by humans OR by nature when the the reality is that it is caused by both.

There are things like the rate of deposition of cosmic dust, volcanism and solar output that we can do little or nothing about but there is certainly something we can do about our species contributions to the problems. Denying our species is contributing to the problem is bordering on criminal neglect at this point and eventually I expect this process will end up in extensive litigation against many corporations.

This is a terrible waste of time and resources. The money will go to the layers and bureaucracy but not to addressing the problems until to late. If much of the effort could be turned to solving the problems ahead of disaster motivation then much of the worst outcomes could be averted.

BTW as for the question of modeling one f the critically important missing links for global climate models has been discovered and is being mapped and analyzed. Its relevance is now about to be incorporated in the modeling, which should improve not only predictive values but the range of predictive parameters and the extent to which the predictions can be made into the future.

http://news.yahoo.co...XfclZyk64shANEA

Australia discovers ocean current "missing link"

By Michael Byrnes Wed Aug 15, 5:14 AM ET

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian scientists have discovered a giant underwater current that is one of the last missing links of a system that connects the world's oceans and helps govern global climate.

New research shows that a current sweeping past Australia's southern island of Tasmania toward the South Atlantic is a previously undetected part of the world climate system's engine-room, said scientist Ken Ridgway.

The Southern Ocean, which swirls around Antarctica, has been identified in recent years as the main lung of global climate, absorbing a third of all carbon dioxide taken in by the world's oceans.

"We knew that they (deep ocean pathway currents) could move from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean through Indonesia. Now we can see that they move south of Tasmania as well, another important link," Ridgway, of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, told Reuters.

In each ocean, water flows around anticlockwise pathways, or gyres, the size of ocean basins.

The newly discovered Tasman Outflow, which sweeps past Tasmania at an average depth of 800-1,000 meters (2,600 to 3,300 feet), is classed as a "supergyre" that links the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic southern hemisphere ocean basins, the government-backed CSIRO said in a statement on Wednesday.

The CSIRO team analyzed thousands of temperature and salinity data samples collected between 1950 and 2002 by research ships, robotic ocean monitors and satellites between 60 degrees south, just north of the Antarctic Circle, and the Equator.

"They identified linkages between these gyres to form a global-scale 'supergyre' that transfers water to all three ocean basins," the CSIRO said. (excerpt)



#103 biknut

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Posted 16 August 2007 - 03:04 PM

There are new results in after that study, see this landmark study by Rignot & Kanagaratman:

http://www.sciencema...ct/311/5763/986



?????

The study sited.

Received 10 April 2006; accepted 9 May 2006; published 13 June 2006.

The study you're siteing

Science 17 February 2006:
Vol. 311. no. 5763, pp. 986 - 990
DOI: 10.1126/science.1121381

In addition Rignot & Kanagaratman never went anywhere near Greenland, not within thousands of miles. The study I'm siting is a much more thorough study where people actually went to Greenland and dug boreholes, and then analyzed the ice cores, satellite data, and other studies.

Abstract:
We provide an analysis of Greenland temperature records to compare the current (1995-2005) warming
period with the previous (1920-1930) Greenland warming. We find that the current Greenland warming is
not unprecedented
in recent Greenland history. Temperature increases in the two warming periods are of
a similar magnitude, however, the rate of warming in 1920-1930 was about 50% higher than that in
1995 - 2005.


#104 bgwowk

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Posted 16 August 2007 - 04:10 PM

I think it is highly disingenuous by anyone to claim that humans have no impact over climate, virtually all studies demonstrate the opposite and almost no studies demonstrates no impact by humans.

There is no homogeneous set of data from which this conclusion can be drawn. There is instead a body of circumstantial evidence made plausible by climate models. Humans are almost certainly having an impact, but I think it is a disservice to the science involved to make the proof sound so simple that skeptics are fools or dishonest. Al Gore does that when he says things like, "the consensus is as strong as it ever gets in science." That is patently absurd. These are complex models, not Maxwell's Equations.

In fact the earliest levels of impact can be traced in the fossil record to when humans harnessed fire.

Some critical thought is needed here. The mean global temperature rise attributed to humans since the industrial revolution is approximately 1 degree Celsius. Divide the C02 output of campfires by sparsely populated prehistorics by the CO2 output since the industrial revolution, multiply by 1 degree Celsius, and then ask how such an infinitesimal change could be detected against a backdrop of ice ages in the presence of forest fires and other natural sources of CO2.

There is too much hyperbole in the climate debate. People sense it, and that is why the real science has trouble getting traction.

#105 Mind

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Posted 16 August 2007 - 04:33 PM

Denying our species is contributing to the problem is bordering on criminal neglect at this point and eventually I expect this process will end up in extensive litigation against many corporations.


First of all there are not too many that say there is no effect on the environment by humans. It is a sweeping illogical generalization to put all research into natural climate cycles into this category.

It is also unfortunate that there is a better than average chance that some corporations will be sued over damages that have not yet occurred and/or are hypothetical and 100 years into the future. It is a terrible legal precident wrought by the environmental left. The "evil" corporations are the result of a couple hundred years of industrial revolution. They could no more turn the tide against societal/economic evolution (and prevent CO2 release) than I could turn back a tsunami with my hand. Left and Right, socialist and capitalist, rich and poor, have all participated in this evolution and it can't be stopped in a day or a year. It is a process. Suing big corporations into oblivion will just ruin the very vehicles of change that will help us live cleaner in the future. Sad.

#106 platypus

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Posted 19 August 2007 - 08:21 PM

There are new results in after that study, see this landmark study by Rignot & Kanagaratman:

http://www.sciencema...ct/311/5763/986



?????

Does the link not work for you?

In addition Rignot & Kanagaratman never went anywhere near Greenland, not within thousands of miles. The study I'm siting is a much more thorough study where people actually went to Greenland and dug boreholes, and then analyzed the ice cores, satellite data, and other studies.


Rignot et. al. mapped all exit glaciers for Greenland using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and they've done the same for Antarctica. It's way better than going near the place!

http://earth.esa.int...v3_document.htm

Abstract:
We provide an analysis of Greenland temperature records to compare the current (1995-2005) warming
period with the previous (1920-1930) Greenland warming. We find that the current Greenland warming is
not unprecedented
in recent Greenland history. Temperature increases in the two warming periods are of
a similar magnitude, however, the rate of warming in 1920-1930 was about 50% higher than that in
1995 - 2005.


Greenland is shedding mass maybe twice faster than only 10 years ago. This could get very serious. The climate in the arctic is currently changing extremely fast and this could affect the sea-level in ways currently unaccounted for in the IPCC review.

#107 biknut

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 10:57 PM

Arctic August: NYC Sets Record For Coldest Day

Aug 21, 2007 5:15 pm US/Eastern

High Of 59 Degrees Ties Chilliest August High Set In 1911

CBS) NEW YORK Don't forget to bundle up if you're headed out in New York City today. After all, it is August 21.

The city along with the rest of the tri-state region is feeling the chilly effect of a cold front sweeping through the region, accompanied by cool rain showers.

Tuesday's high temperature in Central Park was just 59 degrees. The normal high for today is 82 degrees. The normal low is 67.

Digg This Story!

"This unusual blast of cold air smashed our previous record for the coldest high temperature on August 21, which is 64 degrees, set back in 1999," CBS 2 meteorologist Jason Cali told wcbstv.com.

In fact, the 59-degree high tied the record for the coldest high temperature ever for the month of August in New York City, when it reached just 59 degrees in 1911.

Today's highs are more common in the city for the final days of October, when the average high ranges from 59 degrees to 61 degrees.

http://wcbstv.com/to..._233143509.html

#108 platypus

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Posted 22 August 2007 - 08:41 AM

http://www.realclima...12/index/#Solar

#109 Lazarus Long

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 02:20 PM

Here is another response to the original claims of this thread and the details themselves are disturbing.

The Truth About Denial
http://www.msnbc.msn.../site/newsweek/

By Sharon Begley
Newsweek

Aug. 13, 2007 issue - Sen. Barbara Boxer had been chair of the Senate's Environment Committee for less than a month when the verdict landed last February. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal," concluded a report by 600 scientists from governments, academia, green groups and businesses in 40 countries. Worse, there was now at least a 90 percent likelihood that the release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels is causing longer droughts, more flood-causing downpours and worse heat waves, way up from earlier studies. Those who doubt the reality of human-caused climate change have spent decades disputing that. But Boxer figured that with "the overwhelming science out there, the deniers' days were numbered." As she left a meeting with the head of the international climate panel, however, a staffer had some news for her. A conservative think tank long funded by ExxonMobil, she told Boxer, had offered scientists $10,000 to write articles undercutting the new report and the computer-based climate models it is based on. "I realized," says Boxer, "there was a movement behind this that just wasn't giving up." (excerpt)


Maybe being a "contrarian" will finally become profitable if not fashionable.

I am more and more interested in merging these two principle threads, this one and the original global warming thread Global Warming . Does anyone who has posted here have any objections?

Another alternative is to start cataloging related threads together for easier cross reference.

#110 biknut

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 03:01 PM

I am more and more interested in merging these two principle threads, this one and the original global warming thread Global Warming .  Does anyone who has posted here have any objections?

Another alternative is to start cataloging related threads together for easier cross reference.


Lazarus, I don't really have a great objection, but I like this thread for posting articles that point out when people get caught trying to swindle us, or how I think they are doing it. It is difficult though, not to post regular GW articles here in response to others replies.

I'm a big believer that MAN MADE global warming is a huge swindle, but I guess you already figured that out. :)

#111 platypus

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 04:42 PM

I'm a big believer that MAN MADE global warming is a huge swindle, but I guess you already figured that out.    :)

What's the best alternative explanation for the recent warming up (we know it's not the sun nor cosmic rays) and can you point me to the latest models that support your case? The best models available support the case that adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere warms up the planet. What do your models say? If you want to discredit current climate models you need to do it by offering better models...otherwise you can claim that tooth-fairies are warming up the planet, not people...

#112 biknut

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 10:46 PM

I'm a big believer that MAN MADE global warming is a huge swindle, but I guess you already figured that out.    :)

What's the best alternative explanation for the recent warming up (we know it's not the sun nor cosmic rays) and can you point me to the latest models that support your case? The best models available support the case that adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere warms up the planet. What do your models say? If you want to discredit current climate models you need to do it by offering better models...otherwise you can claim that tooth-fairies are warming up the planet, not people...




When you say "we", I guess you mean yourself and other man made global warming fanatics like yourself. I refer to you as a fanatic because I don't think you've ever read a study against GW, and if you did you probably didn't give it any consideration because you instantly believed the authors are on big oil payrolls. I'm not in a position to "know" as much as you obviously are. There's only been one study for cosmic ray warming as far as I know, and one rather flawed study against it. I'm sure the authors of the CRW theory will have more to say. Until then it's still a question mark.

So far, I've seen study after study on both sides of the GW issue. Show me the most iron clad study you can find and I'll show you a other side study.

If you believe studies of scientists, who are instantly labeled deniers only because their studies have findings that dispute global warming studies, then the only thing you can conclude is we are being swindled. The so called deniers were not the ones who started out publishing studies claiming the climate is normal.

What's the best alternative explanation for the recent warming up (we know it's not the sun nor cosmic rays)

How about the climate is normal. It's been warmer in the past, and it will be cooler and warmer in the future. Just because we can't explain the climate doesn't mean man is causing it to be the way it is.

#113 platypus

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 10:54 PM

What's the best alternative explanation for the recent warming up (we know it's not the sun nor cosmic rays)



How about the climate is normal. It's been warmer in the past, and it will be cooler and warmer in the future. Just because we can't explain the climate doesn't mean man is causing it to be the way it is.

So have you got models that explain the current situation without human influence? Without models you're just speculating.

Edited by platypus, 24 August 2007 - 11:25 PM.


#114 biknut

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Posted 25 August 2007 - 01:30 AM

What's the best alternative explanation for the recent warming up (we know it's not the sun nor cosmic rays)



How about the climate is normal. It's been warmer in the past, and it will be cooler and warmer in the future. Just because we can't explain the climate doesn't mean man is causing it to be the way it is.

So have you got models that explain the current situation without human influence? Without models you're just speculating.



I'm not sure which situation you're referring to. At this time both sides of the GW debate are just speculation. You need to stop listening to your algore tapes so much and walk outside once in a while.

On the other hand, assuming man made global warming is real, what can we do about it? Build some more nuclear power plants. Buy more funny light bulbs. That's about it until a realistic and inexpensive alternative power source is invented that can compete with the portability and price of oil, so if GW is real the best thing for you to do is figure out how you're going to live with it.

Any politician that proposes people do with less than they have now will die a quick death. Even your hero algore did nothing about GW while in the second highest office in the world.

#115 platypus

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Posted 25 August 2007 - 09:49 AM

What's the best alternative explanation for the recent warming up (we know it's not the sun nor cosmic rays)


How about the climate is normal. It's been warmer in the past, and it will be cooler and warmer in the future. Just because we can't explain the climate doesn't mean man is causing it to be the way it is.

So have you got models that explain the current situation without human influence? Without models you're just speculating.

I'm not sure which situation you're referring to. At this time both sides of the GW debate are just speculation.

I'm referring to the models that the anti-anthropogenic-warming camp should have to support its case. The best current models show warming when more greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere. It is not speculation, it is science! Besides, the levels of greenhouse gases are already pretty far from "normal" - where's the strong proof against their warming effect? This is a serious issue and it's the job of scientists to raise an alarm when there might be a problem, like right now.

You need to stop listening to your algore tapes so much and walk outside once in a while.

You should listen to the guys who do climate-related research, and not only the vocal minority who supports your worldview.

When you say "we", I guess you mean yourself and other man made global warming fanatics like yourself. I refer to you as a fanatic because I don't think you've ever read a study against GW, and if you did you probably didn't give it any consideration because you instantly believed the authors are on big oil payrolls. I'm not in a position to "know" as much as you obviously are. There's only been one study for cosmic ray warming as far as I know, and one rather flawed study against it. I'm sure the authors of the CRW theory will have more to say. Until then it's still a question mark.

I'm aware that there are some studies "against" the warming effect of greenhouse gases. The thing is that two opposing view (greenhouse gases cause a warming effect) is widely accepted in science and supported by models. Where are the models that show CO2 and methane and water vapour will not warm this place up?

#116 Lazarus Long

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Posted 25 August 2007 - 12:41 PM

Rather than merge the topics I pinned this one to the top. I agree that while there is an overlap the central focus here is more political or social than strict science about the problem. In this respect it reminds me of the debates over stem cells.

Now one thing I suggest we do is stop playing semantics by constantly moving goal posts. The nay sayers in this debate are beginning to look like a Monty Python skit. I suggest a more prudent discussion could be had here by simply analyzing and seeking a consistent and objective set of criteria from which we can have a rational debate.

At this time both sides of the GW debate are just speculation.


This is an example of a false comparison. There is vastly more evidence and logical modeling on one of the debate than on the other. The validity measure for both sides is not equivalent and in this respect nay sayers are mimicking the kinds of arguments we observe from ID'ers and Creationists.

Another example of this is establishing valid criteria for what is *normal* and in this respect together we might achieve a benchmark from which to objectively continue the discussion but also it places a greater burden on the naysayers to start being more consistent about their data (stop switching for example between global and national stats) AND to do as Platypus suggests and start putting forth rational models that demonstrate in a testable fashion how their perspective is the correct one.

Third, as the article I cited above also points out there is a history of industrial lobbying on the denial side that must get filtered as that debate is about politics and economics not science, or climate or even the SCIENCE of climate.

Since the late 1980s, this well-coordinated, well-funded campaign by contrarian scientists, free-market think tanks and industry has created a paralyzing fog of doubt around climate change. Through advertisements, op-eds, lobbying and media attention, greenhouse doubters (they hate being called deniers) argued first that the world is not warming; measurements indicating otherwise are flawed, they said. Then they claimed that any warming is natural, not caused by human activities. Now they contend that the looming warming will be minuscule and harmless. "They patterned what they did after the tobacco industry," says former senator Tim Wirth, who spearheaded environmental issues as an under secretary of State in the Clinton administration. "Both figured, sow enough doubt, call the science uncertain and in dispute. That's had a huge impact on both the public and Congress."

Just last year, polls found that 64 percent of Americans thought there was "a lot" of scientific disagreement on climate change; only one third thought planetary warming was "mainly caused by things people do." In contrast, majorities in Europe and Japan recognize a broad consensus among climate experts that greenhouse gases—mostly from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas to power the world's economies—are altering climate. A new NEWSWEEK Poll finds that the influence of the denial machine remains strong. Although the figure is less than in earlier polls, 39 percent of those asked say there is "a lot of disagreement among climate scientists" on the basic question of whether the planet is warming; 42 percent say there is a lot of disagreement that human activities are a major cause of global warming. Only 46 percent say the greenhouse effect is being felt today.

As a result of the undermining of the science, all the recent talk about addressing climate change has produced little in the way of actual action. Yes, last September Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a landmark law committing California to reduce statewide emissions of carbon dioxide to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent more by 2050. And this year both Minnesota and New Jersey passed laws requiring their states to reduce greenhouse emissions 80 percent below recent levels by 2050. In January, nine leading corporations—including Alcoa, Caterpillar, Duke Energy, Du Pont and General Electric—called on Congress to "enact strong national legislation" to reduce greenhouse gases. But although at least eight bills to require reductions in greenhouse gases have been introduced in Congress, their fate is decidedly murky. The Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives decided last week not even to bring to a vote a requirement that automakers improve vehicle mileage, an obvious step toward reducing greenhouse emissions. Nor has there been much public pressure to do so. Instead, every time the scientific case got stronger, "the American public yawned and bought bigger cars," Rep. Rush Holt, a New Jersey congressman and physicist, recently wrote in the journal Science; politicians "shrugged, said there is too much doubt among scientists, and did nothing."



#117 Lazarus Long

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Posted 25 August 2007 - 01:55 PM

BTW I am going to include here a graph I generated at the NOAA site and I suggest that we start agreeing on sources. Errors by a group capable of acknowledging them and assimilated and compensating for the mistakes does not disqualify them as a source of data.

Posted Image

I created this graph of global mean temperatures at the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration where all NASA data along with a lot more gets integrated.

You can find the page here
http://www.ncdc.noaa...80.0&senY=-90.0

In addition I suggest that more such *OBJECTIVE* sources be shared here instead of subjective ones.

NOAA is a very useful site to use for this discussion and if you think you can frame the data to get different results from the record Biknut then go right ahead, I would be curious to analyze your approach.

However if you look at the timeline that is available the trend is clear and the rate of increased industrialization, which yielded high outputs of greenhouse gases, parallels it very well.

You may want to start here:
Global Climate at a Glance

#118 biknut

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Posted 27 August 2007 - 03:37 AM

Here is another response to the original claims of this thread and the details themselves are disturbing.

The Truth About Denial
http://www.msnbc.msn.../site/newsweek/

By Sharon Begley
Newsweek
  A conservative think tank long funded by ExxonMobil, she told Boxer, had offered scientists $10,000 to write articles undercutting the new report and the computer-based climate models it is based on. "I realized," says Boxer, "there was a movement behind this that just wasn't giving up." (excerpt)


Maybe being a "contrarian" will finally become profitable if not fashionable.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think what you're trying to point out here is that scientist deniers are being payed to write propaganda articles about GW, which may (probably) be true, but if you want to be fair you should mention most of the money spent on propaganda comes from the proponents side. Here are some figures for comparison. I don't think everything written by each side is propaganda, but I think you get the picture.

Reporter Eve Conant, who interviewed Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the ranking member of the Environment & Public Works Committee, was given all the latest data proving conclusively that it is the proponents of man-made global warming fears that enjoy a monumental funding advantage over the skeptics. (A whopping $50 billion to a paltry $19 million for skeptics — yes, that is billion to million

http://www.newsmax.c...0434.shtml?s=lh

I think it is highly disingenuous by anyone to claim that humans have no impact over climate, virtually all studies demonstrate the opposite


I doubt this is true but the last part is probably accurate. Why? This could explain it.

Mathematician & engineer Dr. David Evans,
who did carbon accounting for the Australian Government, recently detailed his conversion to a skeptic. “I devoted six years to
carbon accounting, building models for the Australian government to estimate carbon emissions from land use change and forestry.
When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty conclusive, but since
then new evidence has weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause. I am now skeptical,” Evans wrote in an April
30, 2007 blog. “But after 2000 the evidence for carbon emissions gradually got weaker -- better temperature data for the last
century, more detailed ice core data, then laboratory evidence that cosmic rays precipitate low clouds,” Evans wrote. “As Lord
Keynes famously said, ‘When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?’” he added. Evans noted how he benefited
from climate fears as a scientist. “And the political realm in turn fed money back into the scientific community. By the late 1990's,
lots of jobs depended on the idea that carbon emissions caused global warming. Many of them were bureaucratic, but there were a
lot of science jobs created too. I was on that gravy train, making a high wage in a science job that would not have existed if we didn't
believe carbon emissions caused global warming. And so were lots of people around me; and there were international conferences
full of such people. And we had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful
(well, I
did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet! But starting in about 2000, the last three of the four pieces of
evidence outlined above fell away or reversed,” Evans wrote. “The pre-2000 ice core data was the central evidence for believing
that atmospheric carbon caused temperature increases. The new ice core data shows that past warmings were *not* initially caused
by rises in atmospheric carbon, and says nothing about the strength of any amplification. This piece of evidence casts reasonable
doubt that atmospheric carbon had any role in past warmings, while still allowing the possibility that it had a supporting role,” he
added. “Unfortunately politics and science have become even more entangled. The science of global warming has become a
partisan political issue, so positions become more entrenched. Politicians and the public prefer simple and less-nuanced messages.
At the moment the political climate strongly supports carbon emissions as the cause of global warming, to the point of sometimes
rubbishing or silencing critics,” he concluded.


This scientist is just one of hundreds saying the same thing. I think it's a good explanation why most of the so called science is pro GW.
Scientists, especially Young ones are afraid to not be pro GW. This is why just because the majority of studies back GW it doesn't mean it's true.

Here's a example. There are probably fifty studies claiming Greenland is proof of GW but this one Study counters all of them because it's better, and it comes for an established scientist so he's not in fear for his career. Quality beats quantity.

Abstract:
We provide an analysis of Greenland temperature records to compare the current (1995-2005) warming
period with the previous (1920-1930) Greenland warming. We find that the current Greenland warming is
not unprecedented in recent Greenland history. Temperature increases in the two warming periods are of
a similar magnitude, however, the rate of warming in 1920-1930 was about 50% higher than that in
1995 - 2005.


http://meteo.lcd.lu/...nd_warming.html

I know this study doesn't disprove GW but it does point out the fallacy of believing that having more pro studies means anything.

NASA publishes incorrect data about temperatures and nobody is the least bit suspicious that it may not have been an accident?

I know this is from the GW thread, but I'd like to reply to it here.

First off as both the data Platypus cites and the graph I posted in the first place shows the basic assumption you are making is false, the global mean temperature in the 1930's was not nearly the same as today, it was almost .5 degree C cooler


You do realise this is less than 1 degree f ?

#119 Lazarus Long

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Posted 27 August 2007 - 02:30 PM

(biknut)

I know this is from the GW thread, but I'd like to reply to it here.

(LL)
First off as both the data Platypus cites and the graph I posted in the first place shows the basic assumption you are making is false, the global mean temperature in the 1930's was not nearly the same as today, it was almost .5 degree C cooler


You do realise this is less than 1 degree f ?


That is .5 degree Celsius and you do realize that only a 3-5 degree C shift in global mean temperature can have devastating effects in either direction?

(Biknut)
NASA publishes incorrect data about temperatures and nobody is the least bit suspicious that it may not have been an accident?


No, because first of all they correct themselves and have a vast number of oversight groups like the ones you post that are constantly looking over their shoulders. Anyway not all the claims of those that dispute NASA data have been substantiated. In fact more often than not, the NASA data has withstood the close scrutiny and disputes have been settled in favor of initial data or when it is adjusted by subsequent more precise study, the improved data is incorporated into the database and modeling.

You seem to overlook the fact that NASA is highly vulnerable and sensitive to GIGO (garbage-in garbage-out) and has no vested interest in maintaining false data. It is simply not in their best interest and when they make the simplest of mistakes like they did in the case of the Martian probe that crashed due to confusing metric and SAE, it costs fortunes and could cost lives.

They have little or no incentive to falsify data; unlike industry does.

BTW the database I offered was NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association) and they use NASA data but they use a lot of sources that they have developed independently (like Ice cores etc) and also they integrate EU space program and other source data like that of the Russians and others.

#120 biknut

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Posted 27 August 2007 - 03:33 PM

(Lazarus Long)
That is .5 degree Celsius and you do realize that only a 3-5 degree C shift in global mean temperature can have devastating effects in either direction??


I believe .5c = .9f = not much

It's hard for a human to even sense this small a difference in temperature, but after reading all the hype people make ridiculous statements like "I can feel it's warmer."

It's really beyond my comprehension that anyone, especially someone as rational as you, could not believe that a 1 degree f rise in global temperatures might just be a natural occurrence that has nothing to do with people. It's gone up much more than this in the past.


NASA is highly vulnerable and sensitive to GIGO (garbage-in garbage-out) and has no vested interest in maintaining false data.


This is a highly questionable statement considering they get their funding from politicians, but that's not really a debate for this
thread. :)

BTW the database I offered was NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association) and they use NASA data but they use a lot of sources that they have developed independently (like Ice cores etc) and also they integrate EU space program and other source data like that of the Russians and others.


Yes but the data is incorrect. 1998 was the warnest year. It looks like they're trying to say something that isn't true.




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