18 replies to this topic

[advancedatheist]

In the wake of Bob Nelson's Chatsworth scandal, Trans Time's Art Quaife presents his view of the state of cryonics during one of its challenging periods:

"Cryonics Meltdown," by Barbara Krasnoff

http://www.box.net/shared/9bhixf71mg

[Shannon Vyff]

Thanks-- did you post the F.M. Esfandiary 1981 article-- I read it from Cryo-net and it would be good to put a link to it here with this one, very illuminating in so many ways.

[advancedatheist]

Shannon, check here:

http://www.imminst.o...=0

[Shannon Vyff]

Thanks for posting the link, I read the article already and thought since it is '81, it would be great for anyone reading this one, to read alongside.

I was only 6 then, and have no recollection of this aspect of society then--yet am heir to it now. It really influences me on how conservative we must be as futurists as well. It is very grounding...

[bgwowk]

Hey, Mark, I lent that Cryonics Meltdown issue of Future Life to Hugh Hixon in 1987 and haven't seen it since. Is that my magazine that you have? Seriously, it's missing from my Future Life collection and I need a replacement copy. Do you know where I can get one?

[Live Forever]

Uh oh. People stealing each others magazines and stuff up in here. )

[lunarsolarpower]

Most of it seems to be starry-eyed visions of transeverything set to arrive by 2010. It's funny because that's exactly how I see current "singularity by 2027" predictions today. Perhaps some of this is a result of reading a bit too much science fiction. It's my guess that his ideas of ditching all family structures for a trans(ient) lifestyle of casual relationships was influenced by the 1970s. I did really like one quote though:

The work ethic now slows down growth. The new Leisure ethic accelerates innovation and progress.

I think rising expectations do breed improvements. Although many societal expectations (and a bit of competition) are increasing video game performance, they are also affecting the rate of genetic sequencing among other useful things.

See you in 2027.

[advancedatheist]

Hey, Mark, I lent that Cryonics Meltdown issue of Future Life to Hugh Hixon in 1987 and haven't seen it since.  Is that my magazine that you have?   Seriously, it's missing from my Future Life collection and I need a replacement copy.  Do you know where I can get one?

I bought mine on ebay. I found another copy here:

http://cgi.ebay.com/...VQQcmdZViewItem

[advancedatheist]

I remember reading a lot of those issues of Future Life at their publication time. Looking back at them today, it strikes me how many of those visionary futuristic thinkers who appeared in that magazine in one way or another have died by now -- Isaac Asimov, Robert Heinlein, Robert Anton Wilson, Timothy Leary, Petr Beckmann, Gerard K. O'Neill, and even FM, who experienced prolonged warm ischemia before Alcor could get to him. (Shannon speculates in 21st Century Kids that FM's revival effort will fail.)

I don't know of any magazines like Future Life in publication today, though Wired comes the closest. I suspect that reflects the retreat of social expectations about an automatically better life in "the future."

[advancedatheist]

Most of it seems to be starry-eyed visions of transeverything set to arrive by 2010. It's funny because that's exactly how I see current "singularity by 2027" predictions today. Perhaps some of this is a result of reading a bit too much science fiction.

I've noticed that too. A lot of the cool stuff forecasted in the 1970's to happen by right about now have gotten postponed a few more decades, even past 2050. The information technology forecasts have fared better, however.

It's my guess that his ideas of ditching all family structures for a trans(ient) lifestyle of casual relationships was influenced by the 1970s.

FM came of age when environmentalist theories of human behavior reached their greatest influence, so like a lot of other well intentioned intellectuals he assumed that the environment could shape people into doing what various ideological agendas required of them. Practical experience, now bolstered by evolutionary psychology, has shown the current limits of human plasticity. Rearing someone else's kids violates powerful pressures for inclusive fitness.

[Shannon Vyff]

FM 2030 I said volunteered to be one of the first to be re-animated after they had perfected it on animals, it did not work because he had suffered too much damage from lack of oxygen after death. This was before 2188 when '21st Century Kids' is first set. He was re-preserved and the people from 2188, are waiting till they can re-animate him and repair parts of his brain, re-introducing memories that were lost.

It had to be this way since the children dying so young in our time, are the ones that are re-animated more easily--thus being the first-- and the stars of the story

In a sequel I could have Natasha give memories back to FM.

I'm strongly in the camp of a more conservative approach, yet I appreciate greatly the people who work so hard to call to action our society now. The optimists are necessary along with the realists. (I want more children to grow up believing, then help bring about their own future in ways they can, after they grow and learn more from all the scientists and philosophers )

[bgwowk]

I bought mine on ebay. I found another copy here:

http://cgi.ebay.com/...VQQcmdZViewItem

Thanks, Mark. After 20 years, my set is complete again. See, except for being diseased, dying, and earthbound, the 21st century is full of wonders.

[Shannon Vyff]

Congrats--Gotta love the net! (along with other things of now...) We kind of have a simulated community here at ImmInst

[Mind]

When I think about how some of the predictions of the future have fallen short, the first one that pops into my head is the film "2001: A Space Odyssey". It is not the lack of progress or technology that prevented giant toroid space stations from being built by 2001, it was lack of economic incentive (basically social factors). A lot of people (dare I say the majority) would rather spend their money on Brittany Spears CDs and porn. Sigh.

Overall, I would say most of the predictions have not come true (yet) not because of the lack of tech/progress, but because human beings and human society is not as "plastic" as the prognosticators expected (as Mark mentioned). Now that we are entering an age where we can redesign ourselves, maybe some of the shackles on progress will fall away.

Also, on the macro scale progress has been steady. As a percentage of the population, poverty and hunger have gone down in the last couple of decades, human lifespan has increased dramatically, more food is grown on less acreage of land, etc... Something must be going on.

[advancedatheist]

When I think about how some of the predictions of the future have fallen short, the first one that pops into my head is the film "2001: A Space Odyssey". It is not the lack of progress or technology that prevented giant toroid space stations from being built by 2001, it was lack of economic incentive (basically social factors). A lot of people (dare I say the majority) would rather spend their money on Brittany Spears CDs and porn. Sigh.

Not to mention spending hundreds of billions of dollars on warmaking and political patronage.

Speaking of A Space Odyssey, if you'll watch the scenes with HAL carefully, once in awhile one of the screens around HAL's electronic eye will flash the letters "ATM." This suggests the obvious exchange between astronaut Dave Bowman and HAL:

"One hundred dollars fast cash please, HAL."

"I'm sorry, Dave, but your account is overdrawn."

Overall, I would say most of the predictions have not come true (yet) not because of the lack of tech/progress, but because human beings and human society is not as "plastic" as the prognosticators expected (as Mark mentioned). Now that we are entering an age where we can redesign ourselves, maybe some of the shackles on progress will fall away.

In a way, we've made life too easy for people in developed countries, so that in some respects we've entered what molecular biologist Gunther Stent called "the golden age," where people who grow up with economic sufficiency just don't acquire their parents' "Faustian" habits to succeed. (We see this in the differential between hungry and ambitious Chinese teens who want to study science and engineerng versus the fat and rent-seeking American youngsters who want to earn MBA's and law degrees.) The old-time futurists and science fiction writers, many of whom had lived through the Depression and knew genuine deprivation, had people in our time getting off their butts to conduct mega-science experiments, build space colonies, cultivate superhuman powers and work on other tangible things. Now people with more than enough wherewithal for basic survival think they behave "futuristically" by sitting in front of their computers all day and pretending they have "second lives" online.

Also, on the macro scale progress has been steady. As a percentage of the population, poverty and hunger have gone down in the last couple of decades, human lifespan has increased dramatically, more food is grown on less acreage of land, etc... Something must be going on.

Yeah, well, that trend may have turned, as developed countries have decided to turn more and more of the world's grain supplies into fuel for their cars at the expense of the world's mostly vegetarian poor people.

[Live Forever]

A lot of people (dare I say the majority) would rather spend their money on Brittany Spears CDs and porn. Sigh.

[wis]

[Shannon Vyff]

I rather like this thread "Now people with more than enough wherewithal for basic survival think they behave "futuristically" by sitting in front of their computers all day and pretending they have "second lives" online."

Our world grows and changes over time, some get fed up by the small amount of change they can effect--and become famous for their extreme good or bad deeds.

"A lot of people (dare I say the majority) would rather spend their money on Brittany Spears CDs and porn. Sigh."

I figure if you teach kids a lot when they are young--so such things such as the above bore them, satiate their curiosity with adult level science and issues, then when they are adults they'll have to do more to challenge themselves. Of course leading by example applies--the whole world changing thing--that is why some become famous.

[advancedatheist]

The Future Life article states,

For example, charges have been made that the cryonics organization are preying on the elderly and ill, and their fear of impending death. According to Quaife, the membership of BACS doesn't indicate that type of situation at all. "When people first sign up," he explains," I think they tend to be younger, say in the age group of 25 to 35. Especially among our most active members, we have a high proportion of people in the physical and biological sciences, physicists, computer programmers, engineers, biologists, mathematicians . . . "

We hear that criticism even today. For example, from the cryobiologist critical of cryonics in this documentary about Anita Banker-Riskin's suspension:

http://video.google....earch&plindex=3

[Shannon Vyff]

In an interview I did yesterday the person said they did not want cryonics to become popular because it would be bilking people of money. (I didn't even go into the amount religions take, percentages to leaders vs. social action programs ) I said money goes to communities, researchers -- helps with the development of organ transplant technology to save people now.

Also body organs can be donated. Money can be put into research for organ printing. I always mention how I donate to and volunteer for non profits, also mention Mprize and how humans can put more resources into ending age related degenerative diseases now. I give my own 'we can do more good for our religion if it is "allowed" ' spiel... I refer people to the extensive science at CI's site and Alcor's site (plus the letters from religious leaders) I usually only mention CI's 28,000 dollar price and how affordable that is out of a life insurance policy that can be purchased for just a few dollars each month, and leave much more to one's family. (Watching HBO's Cathouse tonight--a documentary show about professional prostitutes--wow-- some guys pay 17,000 for a day! So in addition to homes that are too big, or cars that are excessively expensive--there are many ways modern humans spend money in questionably ethical ways. )

Thanks for posting the link to that documentary-- I showed that to my children quite a while ago--they loved her story--how she is a grandma and all. I'm glad it never mentioned some of her profession and publications, for PR reasons. She and Michael are heroes IMO, and have done much good for society and relationships.

On the ages-- didn't Ben Best do a large study on who signs up for cryonics? I really enjoyed reading Quaife's article from the early 80's thanks-- I hear the same counters in interviews I do. I love doing interviews though, it is fun

Feel free at any time to give me pointers on what I say to the public.