5 replies to this topic

[dumbdumb]

Hello, thanks for reading.

While I find cryonics a marvelous science, and very attractive as an option for myself, I nevertheless find myself doubtful that it can prove to be sustainable through the course of economic and social changes that are certain to come in the centuries between our planned preservation and our possible revival. I've posted about these concerns because I hope that they can be allayed by the members of this forum who are more familiar with the operations and long-term strategies of the various cryonics companies and institutes.

Much debate centers around the scientific or ethical feasibility of cryonics - but I think that a much more practical realm for discussion would be just how these companies will be able to continue operating on the basis of the payments made during the lifetimes of their clients in consideration of the instability of national and international markets over such a lengthy span of time. Over the course of some hundreds of years, it cannot be said to be certain, for example, that the United States will continue to be the greatest economic power of the world, with the USD in command of global trade. Neither can it be certain that the socioeconomic systems now predominant will continue to thrive; whereas past ages have seen revolutions and transformations, it is more likely than not that there are more conflicts of such a nature in humanity's future. If the dollar yields its dominance to European or Eastern currencies, how will these companies based in North America continue to preserve us on the basis of our long-devalued payments? Or if the economies of North America should transition to planned economies, will the cryonics companies cooperate whatever form of government holds sway - and how?

In short, how can the cryonics companies be certain of always having enough money to operate, or at least to preserve the bodies of those whose payments will have long-ago ceased to be of real value?

In order to be profitable enterprises, they will rely, for some time to come, upon the affluent of North America with hopes of immortality. What if the economic or philosophical basis for this should weaken? How could they continue to function in the instance of a global economic depression, for example?

I'm asking to hear what you think, not to tell you what I think. I'm simply not sure.

Thanks for reading.

Edited by dumbdumb, 09 March 2008 - 10:09 PM.

[bgwowk]

Modern cryonics organizations are supposed to collect sufficient money as a lump sum at time of cryopreservation to fund perpetual care based on anticipated future rates of investment return and anticipated patient care costs. For example, 20 years ago Alcor set its funding minimums based on a detailed analysis of patient care costs, and an assumed annual real rate-of-return on investment of 1%.

http://www.alcor.org...OfCryonics.html

That's a very conservative standard. Unfortunately there hasn't been a similar analysis since then, but the basic principle still stands: Patient care is not supposed to depend upon money from living members. Cryonics organizations are supposed to retain sufficient patient care fund reserves to fund perpetual care of patients even if living dues-paying members all disappeared tomorrow.

It all comes down to how much patient care costs, including overhead, and whether investment returns will be sufficient to pay these costs in perpetuity without depleting principal. There are obviously scenarios, such as major socioeconomic collapse, for which no reasonable amount of money will be sufficient. However if an investment rate of return significantly below historical averages is assumed in setting funding minimums, then there is a reasonable chance of being able to continue patient care for generations based on income from principal.

[forever freedom]

I have also thought of it before and yes there are a few risks. No matter how great a plan a company like Alcor may have now for long term survival, there are a lots of things that can go wrong. So that's a risk that's hard to elimintate, although i think that there will always be wealthy people around that are interested in cryonics and that will save companies like Alcor should some financial crysis happen with it.



But the safest of all would be -and here i'm also asking a question to anyone that knows a good deal about this subject- a self-sustaining facility for cryonics patients, completely automated, highly secured, with everything it needs to survive for centuries. Apart from the fact that it would require a great deal of money, would it be possible to create it? Some rich individuals interested in cryonics would sure like the idea of staying frozen and preserved in a highly secured, bunker-like facility that can maintain itself for centuries. Would that be possible?

[JonesGuy]

The best way to end with a million dollars is to start with a billion dollars.

It is actually quite hard to make an investment grow faster than inflation. Sure, lots of people do it, but it's still tough. A cryonics patient runs the risk that their capital will be degraded by the time they are awoken. The best defenses are to start with more capital and to be prepared for a hard life when you're awoken

[forever freedom]

The best way to end with a million dollars is to start with a billion dollars.

Where did you get this idea from? Keeping your money safe from inflation is really easy, a lot of secure, with fixed rate of return investments manage it.

You could i.e. just invest in government bonds and you'll even get a higher-than-inflation valuation of your money with virtually no risk (and if you definitely want to eliminate risk in case the US government bankrupts ( ) you can diversify into various government's bonds)

Edited by sam988, 10 March 2008 - 03:43 PM.

[JonesGuy]

I got this idea from working in the financial investment industry for a number of years.

It's a similar idea to becoming 'permanently wealthy' (i.e, having enough capital income to guard vs. inflation and still being able to afford your lifestyle), it's really hard to do over extended periods. You need active management, and (in the end) active management is fallible.

That said, it's not impossible. But it's still easier to end up with a million dollars if you started with a billion than it is to end up with a million dollars if you start with a million. For this reason, cryonics patients should endeavor to have a nest egg that's as large as possible