The Longevity Meme team (TLM) has been progressively moving through the ranks. Live Forever asked about the next goal for TLM in a thread at ImmInst:
Rank..... Date
500...... Aug 28, 2005
400...... Dec 12, 2005
300...... Jun 01, 2006
200...... Feb 04, 2008
Logically, the next step in rank progression is Rank 100. Rank positions numerically below 100 are desirable for a number of reasons. A major reason is that top ranked teams have increased visibility, for the team and all that the team represents. The question arises: What are the requirements for TLM to move to Rank 100?
From the above list, moving from Rank 500 to rank 400 is considerably different than moving from rank 200 to rank 100. Looking at the time for Rank movement in the past:
Rank .....Date.......... ~Time Required (weeks)
500..... Aug 28, 2005......... -
400..... Dec 12, 2005......... 14
300..... Jun 01, 2006.......... 26
200..... Feb 04, 2008......... 88
Each advance of 100 rank positions takes progressively more time. This is somewhat intuitive because of the complex dynamics of the entire folding effort. Many critical factors change with time: The number of participants, the number of teams, the kinds of hardware that is capable of contributing (e.g. PS3), the core software and clients are improving, and the speed of the hardware itself is increasing (Moore’s Law). If one extrapolated from the above data, then it will take a long time to reach rank 100.
Recently the F@h prize was initiated, this should lead to an increase in both the number of contributors and the productivity of the team. This may provide a basis to consider that rank 100 could be achievable.
Extreme Overclocking (EOC) has an excellent site listing statistics for folding participants. One could use this resource to set some bounds on the requirements to reach rank 100. First, since rank is based on accumulated points, it is seen that the current teams around rank 100 have accumulated about ~20.5 million points. Currently TLM has accumulated ~8.2 million points. So, TLM would have to more than double the existing accumulated points to qualify for rank 100. If TLM managed to do this, say overnight, how would it maintain the position at ~ rank 100? To maintain rank at ~100, TLM would need to produce points commensurate with lower level of the top 100 producers, which would be: ~41,000 Points per day (PPD). Currently TLM produces ~ 20,500 PPD, so TLM would, at minimum, need to double current productivity.
It doesn’t seem unreasonable to assume that TLM might, with the help of the prize, double the productivity. But these two items are just lower bounds that are necessary, but not sufficient, for sub-rank 100. The time required getting there and the changes that take place during that time are big factors.
One could again use the EOC site statistics to determine a lower bound on how long it would take to reach rank 100 with increased productivity. To do this, choose teams listed in EOC stats that are near TLM’s current rank (200) and that are also producing higher than TLMs current PPD. Two teams with appropriate statistics are listed below:
Team Name....Current Rank...Current PPD
Organized Chaos.........172...........40,500
Folding Belarus ...........213...........52,800
A team named Slo-Tech is currently ranked at 100. Team Slo-Tech is currently folding at ~20,000 ppd. Using those above listed teams as reference, EOC statistics can be used to predict how long it will take for those teams to pass team Slo-Tech:
..........................Time to Pass Slo-Tech
Organized Chaos ........ 1.4 years
Folding Belarus ............1.1 years
The above times-to-pass Slo-Tech represent lower bounds on the estimated time required for TLM to reach rank 100 because of the other factors mentioned earlier in this analysis. Those other factors will cause Slo-Tech to regress in the rankings so that when TLM does pass, Slo-Tech will be at a rank position considerably less than 100.
One scenario to reach rank 100 could be for TLM to rapidly double or triple current productivity. Then afterward, TLM must increase productivity with time commensurate with the typical productivity associated with rank 100. If these criteria can be met, then it appears that Rank 100 could be achievable, although it will likely take more than one year.
Edited by dnamechanic, 26 March 2008 - 09:22 PM.