86 replies to this topic

[Mind]

Welcome to "The Ownership Society".

Certainly better than a "welfare society" where everyone is just a cog in the machine completely dependent on government assistance.

Anyway, back to the point about how long it will take to turn over the current generation of cars, I think it is already getting close to the point where it is economically rational to park the gas car and buy electric, especially if you just commute through an urban environment. Cheap NEVs are already available, and you can pay one off in as short as 3 years with the savings you get from not buying gas. Gas cars are a money sinkhole. Not only because of the price of gas but because of all the maintenance.

[Heliotrope]

120 a barrel very expensive! when we run out of fossil fuels, what are we gonna do , better fully develop alt fuel technologies soon

[niner]

120 a barrel very expensive! when we run out of fossil fuels, what are we gonna do , better fully develop alt fuel technologies soon

Ya don't say...

[Cyberbrain]

[niner]

I just saw a funny article in the paper today. SUV owners are "Angry" about the paltry amount of money their trucks are bringing on trade-in. Poor babies. Maybe they will start clamoring for a government bailout.

[Cyberbrain]

It's amazing that in just 12 years, the price of oil has risen more then a $100, when it used to be $20.

[niner]

Welcome to "The Ownership Society".

Certainly better than a "welfare society" where everyone is just a cog in the machine completely dependent on government assistance.

That was just a reference to the consequences of policies that primarily benefit the wealthy and Wall Street, to the detriment of the middle and lower economic brackets. I'm certainly not pro-welfare.

[Heliotrope]

we're still type 0.7 to 0.73 civilization or so,

when we take 100% control of Earth's energy and all the fuels, as type 1 civ, this debate will seem silly.

when we become Type II civ, take all solar power, fossil fuel debates will seem like old fossils

we we become type III like in Star Wars, then can exploit galaxies and new forms of energy


when we get to type IV and conquer the universe and fully utilitze Dark Energy, who's gonna care? jwho's gonna stop us?
hope that doesn't end up being the dark side's dark force and destroy us

J/k

When we go beyond physical and go completely virtual/spiritual/energy-like beings, nature will have no rein on us.. sad thing is, we'd most likely be dead before we even go to type ii or III

Edited by HYP86, 11 May 2008 - 05:49 AM.

[Ganshauk]

I cant beleive no one gets this.

For millenia, mankind has refined warfare.

First, there is the law of steel.

Then the law of disease.

The law of famine.

The general rule of warfare remained conventional for millenia. Then we did something new. Total global thermonuclear war.


War changed. If stopped being "what you can do" and became "what you cant do"

The end of the cold war saw a new age of warfare- Economic warfare. We realized that conventional warfare is obsolete.

So China buys our debt. Suddendly, the Dollar isnt worth spit.

Connect the dots, my freinds. Buy debt and a subsequent devaluation of that debt.

Things are going to get nasty.

Iys a dangerous game we play but it the only option available to us.

Luckily, there is currently no defense.

[niner]

Here is an example of why I think that the price of gasoline and oil will not climb to the sky: These guys have developed a drop-in replacement for General Aviation Fuel, a 100 octane leaded product used by piston engine aircraft. It is made from biomass, not petroleum, and it is superior to existing fuel. They say that its projected cost is half the current petroleum-based manufacturing cost. (They do use that sneaky word "projected", but still...) It's not ethanol. It's a synthetic hydrocarbon fuel that sounds pretty great. They have not to my knowledge disclosed their chemistry, but I understand that it is a catalytic process. I have seen other schemes along these lines, so there is competition in the field. Someone is going to make a lot of money... And while we may see seven dollar gas, I doubt that we'll see double that in the long haul. Short term crisis-pricing is another story, though.

http://news.uns.purd...iationFuel.html

[Ganshauk]

You dont see it yet?

The pattern is there.

The price of oil will fall back to a realistic level the day after the election of the next president.

Have you really not noticed this?

[niner]

The price of oil will fall back to a realistic level the day after the election of the next president.

If so, you should get margined up and short the hell out of oil. Better be prepared to change your name and skip town, just in case...

[Hedgehog]

The only other thing I was thinking that I haven't mentioned yet is that even when these cars become the norm for new car sales it's still going to take close to ten years for a turnover in the cars on the road to become apparent.

That depends. If we get to $12 per gallon in 2010 things would shift quite rapidly.

What do I expect. That the year after Peak Oil, we might see a price hike of 50% more for consumer prices of oil products in the first year, and 100% annual price hike the second year after Peak Oil. (Americans, think your 3.50 dollar gallon of gas is nasty? How about $5.25 this time next year? and $10.50 two years from now? Who dares to drive a car at those prices?)

link

Yes, quite right. At some point, people are going to really start changing their behavior. It's already happening; oil consumption is already dropping noticeably in the US, and Detroit is shuttering SUV plants left and right. A few more dollars per gallon and it's going to be a whole new world. While I tend to agree with those who believe that we are already in "peak oil", I don't see sustained $10/gal prices very soon. I just don't see the supply demand situation supporting that. I could see half that relatively soon though, and that will be shocking enough for all the suburban moms using 7000 pound trucks to take junior to Chuck E. Cheese. Still, there will be some who will "dare to drive a car at those prices" and far beyond. I predict a new rash of gasoline thefts. For most cars, all it would take is a crowbar to pop the door and a siphon hose. Welcome to "The Ownership Society".

I still wana get that Aptera (wingless flight). http://en.wikipedia....i/Aptera_Motors

I have started to hear a couple advertisments for it already.

[niner]

I still wana get that Aptera (wingless flight). http://en.wikipedia....i/Aptera_Motors

I have started to hear a couple advertisments for it already.

Are there any reports from unbiased sources about the way the Aptera handles? The two wheels in front one in back layout is a recipe for oversteer, which is going to make it prone to spinning out in turns. There has never been a successful mass market three wheeled car to my knowledge. (They've been tried before.) Vehicle dynamics might be the reason. Looks cool though. Might be good for picking up Jetsons-obsessed women, should they exist.

[Cyberbrain]

Link: Oil edges towards $128 a barrel

[Ghostrider]

The cheapest gas was $4.29 near my house last week. I wonder what it will be this week! Time to get on the bike again.

Wow, I am glad I don't live near you! Still haven't broken the $4/gallon level yet near me. (Was $3.79 I think last time I filled up)

I got 3/4 of a tank today at Costco for $3.65 / gallon. Not bad for Oregon with its high gas taxes. I think BMW's hydrogen product looks very appealing. It's liquid hydrogen which means that you can fill it up just like gasoline. Their current 7-series runs on both gasoline and hydrogen. But it has one pretty big issue, the hydrogen needs to be preserved at cold enough temperature so that it stays liquid. Makes me wonder what happens when the cooling system fails. BMW's hydrogen car requires no exotic materials and the engine is really their standard V8. The hydrogen does not need to be distributed, but could be made at the station. Again, only issue is the very low storage temperature required to store the H2.

Someone at work drives an electric Zap car: http://www.zapworld....ars/xebra-sedan

If I lived close enough, I would consider buying one. $11k is pretty reasonable for an electric car and it would totally handle my commute.

[Ghostrider]

I just saw a funny article in the paper today. SUV owners are "Angry" about the paltry amount of money their trucks are bringing on trade-in. Poor babies. Maybe they will start clamoring for a government bailout.

And I would not be surprised if they got a govt. bailout, at least in the US.

[Ghostrider]

The only other thing I was thinking that I haven't mentioned yet is that even when these cars become the norm for new car sales it's still going to take close to ten years for a turnover in the cars on the road to become apparent.

That depends. If we get to $12 per gallon in 2010 things would shift quite rapidly.

What do I expect. That the year after Peak Oil, we might see a price hike of 50% more for consumer prices of oil products in the first year, and 100% annual price hike the second year after Peak Oil. (Americans, think your 3.50 dollar gallon of gas is nasty? How about $5.25 this time next year? and $10.50 two years from now? Who dares to drive a car at those prices?)

link

Yes, quite right. At some point, people are going to really start changing their behavior. It's already happening; oil consumption is already dropping noticeably in the US, and Detroit is shuttering SUV plants left and right. A few more dollars per gallon and it's going to be a whole new world. While I tend to agree with those who believe that we are already in "peak oil", I don't see sustained $10/gal prices very soon. I just don't see the supply demand situation supporting that. I could see half that relatively soon though, and that will be shocking enough for all the suburban moms using 7000 pound trucks to take junior to Chuck E. Cheese. Still, there will be some who will "dare to drive a car at those prices" and far beyond. I predict a new rash of gasoline thefts. For most cars, all it would take is a crowbar to pop the door and a siphon hose. Welcome to "The Ownership Society".

I think on most cars, you don't even need a crowbar. My car was made when it took less than $20 to fill the tank.

[maxwatt]

I still wana get that Aptera (wingless flight). http://en.wikipedia....i/Aptera_Motors

I have started to hear a couple advertisments for it already.

Are there any reports from unbiased sources about the way the Aptera handles? The two wheels in front one in back layout is a recipe for oversteer, which is going to make it prone to spinning out in turns. There has never been a successful mass market three wheeled car to my knowledge. (They've been tried before.) Vehicle dynamics might be the reason. Looks cool though. Might be good for picking up Jetsons-obsessed women, should they exist.

The Isetta was moderately successful. But they had to go to a four wheel version within a year because the three wheel vehicle was vulnerable to rolling over in turns. Three wheels are inherently unstable in turns. Something to do with physics. (Why are there no racing tricycles? Because they flip over on down hill curves.) They've gone to a wide wheel base on the Aptera, but I suspect they'll have to add another wheel before it is widely marketed.

Wikipedia article




I knew a guy who owned one of the first three wheel models. On Halloween, the kids in the neighborhood picked up the car and impaled it on a fire hydrant. The following year he put the car on his back porch to protect it.
--------------------
We are up a creek without a paddle. A gallon of gasoline represents the power available from all the sunlight that falls on a square foot of earth over a hundred years. Biofuels will not be able to sustain our current energy requirements.

Edited by maxwatt, 17 May 2008 - 03:21 AM.

[niner]

Max, the Isetta is awesome! When I was a kid I had one of those English tricycles with chain drive, no freewheel, no brakes, and skinny hard rubber tires. God, that thing was great. I still have scars. There has to be a problem with that gasoline/sunlight number. Just grabbing some wiki numbers, gas = 131 MJ/gal, Insolation = 250 W/m**2 averaged over day and night, all Earth. m**2 = 10.76 ft**2, W = J/s; I get the energy in a gallon of gas is the sunlight falling on one square foot for ~62 days, with ideal weather. Also, the vast majority of the energy in gasoline is wasted by poor conversion efficiencies in internal combustion engines, unrecovered braking and mgh energy, and crappy aerodynamics. A very efficient electric car, like a Honda Insight, uses 130 W hr/mile, while an EV with bad aerodynamics and a less efficient motor might be 350 W hr/mile. If you use 250 W hr/mi as a reasonable estimate for a real car with electric drive, that's 0.9 MJ/mi. So if all the energy in a gallon of gas was applied to the job of moving the car instead of heating up the exhaust gas, it would go 145 miles. That's why our cars are eventually going to mostly be electric.

Edited by niner, 17 May 2008 - 04:32 AM.

[lunarsolarpower]

I still wana get that Aptera (wingless flight). http://en.wikipedia....i/Aptera_Motors

I have started to hear a couple advertisments for it already.

One of my classmates preordered one. Since he commutes more than two hours a day the savings should add up for him quite fast.

I remember seeing someone climb into one of those Isettas when I was a kid. It really turned my paradigm of car design on its ear to see someone climb into their car through their windshield!

[abolitionist]

there's no conspiracy to drive up oil prices...

------

In Texas many of the oil wells are capped off - why do you think this is?

I know a family member who owns partial rights to one of these wells - there are no plans to start pumping up crude.

Edited by abolitionist, 17 May 2008 - 07:47 AM.

[niner]

In Texas many of the oil wells are capped off - why do you think this is?

Because they've been pumped dry?

[Athanasios]

There has to be a problem with that gasoline/sunlight number.

I was going to say something but you beat me to it. You also did a much better breakdown of it than I would have.

[Mind]

Dammit, my wife just reminded me about how I wanted to buy oil futures when it was only 43 dollars a barrel (I think my suggestion is still in one of the forum threads here). I told everyone it was probably the best bet to double your money in one year. Of course I was too apathetic to actually go out and do it. Sure enough, it went up to 78 dollars a barrel in one year. Now 3 years later it has tripled. Arrrggg!

[abolitionist]

In Texas many of the oil wells are capped off - why do you think this is?

Because they've been pumped dry?

nope, they are sitting on them - and it's now possible to make a huge profit for even the smaller wells

what American would sit on an oil field when the country is hurting so badly due to skyrocketing oil prices?

profit motive is ideological poison

[lunarsolarpower]

what American would sit on an oil field when the country is hurting so badly due to skyrocketing oil prices?

profit motive is ideological poison

There are many reasons America is hurting but I don't know that high oil prices are among the foremost yet. Obviously the independent semi-truck drivers have been hurt as well as parts of the auto industry. In fact one of the hardest hit sectors thus far are the refineries and gas station operators. However gasoline in America has been less than half the price of Britain or Japan for decades and that's still the case. What is hurting Americans (and driving up the nominal price of oil) is the decline in the dollar. Of course it hurts those who HAVE dollars while being beneficial to those who on aggregate OWE dollars. Real inflation is the most politically acceptable way to lower real wages. Even if an employer gives cost-of-living increases each year pegged to the CPI they are effectively paying a lower salary if real inflation is higher than the CPI.

Wages in America have been falling in comparison to the rest of the world for quite some time and there's a ways to go to achieve parity. A major component of the elevated American standard of living after the advent of globalization was the willingness of foreign countries to accept USD as a reserve currency and not immediately exchange them for their local currency.

A high price of oil has serious implications for the economy but it seems it's the only effective way to encourage the massive wastefulness of energy we've grown up with to change. Do you think anyone would develop an Aptera if gasoline was projected to be $.85 per gallon three years from now? It is better that the impetus for sustainability hits while we still have the resources to build better systems and can avoid absolute worst case scenarios. Ultimately there are still hard decisions that will have to be made such as how many people can the earth really support and how far are we willing to allow standards of living to fall and ecological damage to increase to accomodate increased numbers of people.

[maxwatt]

There has to be a problem with that gasoline/sunlight number.

I was going to say something but you beat me to it. You also did a much better breakdown of it than I would have.

Sorry about that; I grabbed that number from a usually reliable source without checking.