1 reply to this topic

[TianZi]

So in the latest daily tracking poll by Zogby, McCain has for the first time surged ahead to a 5 point lead. However, and you won't see this emphasized in the breathless stories trumpeting this news (how the media loves a good horse race!), the poll only included so-called "likely voters".

What are the exact criteria Zogby uses to determine "likely voters"? Who gets excluded? Groups like Blacks and those aged 18-29, who historically have a low turn-out but who voted in record numbers in the Democratic primaries? I'll see what I can find online.

[TianZi]

Based on this article, Zogby was the only major polling organization in 2004 (out of 22) that refused to disclose pertinent details regarding its "likely voter" model:

http://www.mysterypo...y_voters_v.html

I didn't find anything more recent attempting to decipher Zogby's "likely voter" criteria. I did find this 20 August 2008 article at www.pollster.com regarding Zogby's polls:


http://www.pollster....zogby_polls.php