31 replies to this topic

[Ghostrider]

http://www.techwatch...larity-by-2048/

Edited by brokenportal, 25 February 2011 - 03:01 AM.
by request

[Richard Leis]

I have to admit that I find this stunning. A huge company like Intel sends out a press release about, of all things, the Singularity. Sure, they don't name it, but they sure do define it. The original press release:

http://www.intel.com...sepri_20080821m

[luv2increase]

Once Singularity comes about, I'll be 65 years old. This is off course if it does in the time frame which Intel puts it at or even at all. I hope that what I am doing now will allow me to be especially fit by that time and not too late to take advantage of the possibility of singularity finding a way for life to be extended indefinitely.


Very interesting indeed.

[Harvey Newstrom]

That's not what they said. Read the article. They acknowledge the concept of the singularity (without naming it). And they predicted that technology will "bring man and machine much closer together by 2050." That's not the singularity.

[Snapple]

For example programmable materials called catoms could be used to create cell phones that can expand in size when you take them out of your pocket.

Sometimes articles like these make me laugh. I'm no scientist or technologist or futurist, but it strikes me that when we have ability to manipulate programmable "catoms" or other nanotech, just about the least interesting, most trivial application of that nearly God-like power would be "cell phones that can expand in size."

[Richard Leis]

That's not what they said. Read the article. They acknowledge the concept of the singularity (without naming it). And they predicted that technology will "bring man and machine much closer together by 2050." That's not the singularity.

It is Kurzweil's Singularity. I know there is debate over which singularity is the true singularity, but Intel has basically acknowledged the Kurzweillian Singularity idea and how they are working toward it. That is unprecedented, unless you include Google's participation at the last Singularity Summit. I think this press release was much more public than that.

CNET TV also discusses Intel's acknowledgment of this particular singularity idea: "Smart humans, smarter machines?"

[forever freedom]

Really interesting to have Intel's CTO say this. If for nothing else, it's good to know that we're not just some religious cult following a "religion" blindly because we want to see the "rapture" in our lifetimes. I love to constantly discuss it with people who disagree about the singularity because after those arguments i always get comfortable knowing that i'm not deluding myself and that there isn't any strong enough argument proving that the singularity isn't going to happen/isn't going to happen in this century.

[jCole]

Once Singularity comes about, I'll be 65 years old. This is off course if it does in the time frame which Intel puts it at or even at all. I hope that what I am doing now will allow me to be especially fit by that time and not too late to take advantage of the possibility of singularity finding a way for life to be extended indefinitely.


Very interesting indeed.

As long as you continue to live a healthy life style and stay on top the the bleeding edge of bioengineering....add in a little nano-technology....65 will be the new 35 by the time we get there.

I'm sure you'll be fine... less a natural accident that takes you out before then.

Edited by jCole, 23 August 2008 - 11:22 PM.

[John_Ventureville]

I am more attached to the 2045 date Ray Kurzweil has given. I will be an ancient 78 years old when that year rolls around! yeouch! I'd much prefer being a far more youthful 65. I hope my Scandinavian ancestry and half-way decent health habits help me to get there. I wonder if 78 will be the new 55 in the year 2045? lol!

John : )

[Richard Leis]

The Singularity Summit 2008:

"Keynotes will include Ray Kurzweil, updating his predictions in The Singularity is Near, and Intel CTO Justin Rattner, who will examine the Singularity's plausibility. At the Intel Developer Forum on August 21, 2008, he explained why he thinks the gap between humans and machines will close by 2050. "Rather than look back, we're going to look forward 40 years," said Rattner. "It's in that future where many people think that machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence."

http://www.singularitysummit.com/media

The lineup is amazing:

http://www.singulari...mit.com/program

[modelcadet]

So... Intel's CTO knows about SingInst. Hmm...

Maybe he should know about ImmInst. Hmm...

[REGIMEN]

Once Singularity comes about, I'll be 65 years old. This is off course if it does in the time frame which Intel puts it at or even at all. I hope that what I am doing now will allow me to be especially fit by that time and not too late to take advantage of the possibility of singularity finding a way for life to be extended indefinitely.


Very interesting indeed.

Don't worry about being in old age by then since, unlike most End Times predictions, the Singularity will be predicted to be an earlier date each passing year.

[forever freedom]

Once Singularity comes about, I'll be 65 years old. This is off course if it does in the time frame which Intel puts it at or even at all. I hope that what I am doing now will allow me to be especially fit by that time and not too late to take advantage of the possibility of singularity finding a way for life to be extended indefinitely.


Very interesting indeed.

Don't worry about being in old age by then since, unlike most End Times predictions, the Singularity will be predicted to be an earlier date each passing year.

I don't know about that.. i mean, kurzweil predicted the singularity to happen in 2045 many years ago yet i still don't think that it will happen sooner than in 2045. Vernor Vinge, back in 1993, said that he "would be surprised if the singularity had not happened by 2030". I don't think it'll happen that soon..

The point is, it's impossible to know when the singularity will happen and how fast we will get there. It's not just the computer power that needs to be increased, but there are many other factors involved in it. I do think that if it doesn't happen until 2100, it may take many centuries or millenia more, if we ever get there. Many things can go wrong..

[RighteousReason]

For example programmable materials called catoms could be used to create cell phones that can expand in size when you take them out of your pocket.

Sometimes articles like these make me laugh. I'm no scientist or technologist or futurist, but it strikes me that when we have ability to manipulate programmable "catoms" or other nanotech, just about the least interesting, most trivial application of that nearly God-like power would be "cell phones that can expand in size."

hahaha...

[REGIMEN]

Once Singularity comes about, I'll be 65 years old. This is off course if it does in the time frame which Intel puts it at or even at all. I hope that what I am doing now will allow me to be especially fit by that time and not too late to take advantage of the possibility of singularity finding a way for life to be extended indefinitely.


Very interesting indeed.

Don't worry about being in old age by then since, unlike most End Times predictions, the Singularity will be predicted to be an earlier date each passing year.

I don't know about that.. i mean, kurzweil predicted the singularity to happen in 2045 many years ago yet i still don't think that it will happen sooner than in 2045. Vernor Vinge, back in 1993, said that he "would be surprised if the singularity had not happened by 2030". I don't think it'll happen that soon..

The point is, it's impossible to know when the singularity will happen and how fast we will get there. It's not just the computer power that needs to be increased, but there are many other factors involved in it. I do think that if it doesn't happen until 2100, it may take many centuries or millenia more, if we ever get there. Many things can go wrong..

So here are the possibilities for when the Singularity happens:

2030
2045
IF after 2100: centuries or millennia

The odds seem better for the Second Coming what with all the developments surrounding Israel...

How do you guys stay so positive?

Edited by liplex, 05 September 2008 - 03:52 AM.

[AdamSummerfield]

I am more attached to the 2045 date Ray Kurzweil has given. I will be an ancient 78 years old when that year rolls around! yeouch! I'd much prefer being a far more youthful 65. I hope my Scandinavian ancestry and half-way decent health habits help me to get there. I wonder if 78 will be the new 55 in the year 2045? lol!

John : )

I'll be 55.

[John_Ventureville]

>I'll be 55.

And in 2045 the age 55 will be the new 25! LOL Yeah, right...

John : )

[Luna]

>I'll be 55.

And in 2045 the age 55 will be the new 25! LOL Yeah, right...

John : )

Let's hope in 2045 the new 55 will be 19
I'd really be.. screwed.. if I got to 2045 and nothing helps me with biology.

[Eternal]

>I'll be 55.

And in 2045 the age 55 will be the new 25! LOL Yeah, right...

John : )

Let's hope in 2045 the new 55 will be 19
I'd really be.. screwed.. if I got to 2045 and nothing helps me with biology.

Well I don't think we should worry about how long it will take for the singularity to happen because I don't think we need it to for the first drastic life extension breakthrough to happen and ones that happens there is no doubt we'll keep extending it before the first life extension breakthrough limit is reached.

[forever freedom]

>I'll be 55.

And in 2045 the age 55 will be the new 25! LOL Yeah, right...

John : )

Let's hope in 2045 the new 55 will be 19
I'd really be.. screwed.. if I got to 2045 and nothing helps me with biology.

Well I don't think we should worry about how long it will take for the singularity to happen because I don't think we need it to for the first drastic life extension breakthrough to happen and ones that happens there is no doubt we'll keep extending it before the first life extension breakthrough limit is reached.

I'm not sure about that. I think that without strong AI we won't be able to drastically extend the human lifespan -not in our lifetimes, for that matter-.


Aging is way too complex for us to beat it, even partially, with current or near future (until 2050) technology.

Edited by sam988, 04 October 2008 - 11:32 PM.

[Heliotrope]

^
^

agree with sam's post above. aging is very complex. we haven't beaten it yet. we'll be lucky to have strong AI and singularity reached before 2050 , Merging of mankind and machines. a level of post-human god-like existence, and practically truly "immortal" may take millions of years!!!

just hoping incremental steps will get us to escape velocity , keeping one step ahead of nature


We gotta be sure the when singularity's there, the AI would be a friendly, not getting all emotional, deceiving us, or taking advantage of humans & then evolving SUPERFAST , like a giant while even the billions of us will be like ants, squashed and killed, then AI declaring it God and turning Earth to a computer and spaceship to travel off with its robot cronies

[Luna]

^
^

agree with sam's post above. aging is very complex. we haven't beaten it yet. we'll be lucky to have strong AI and singularity reached before 2050 , Merging of mankind and machines. a level of post-human god-like existence, and practically truly "immortal" may take millions of years!!!

just hoping incremental steps will get us to escape velocity , keeping one step ahead of nature


We gotta be sure the when singularity's there, the AI would be a friendly, not getting all emotional, deceiving us, or taking advantage of humans & then evolving SUPERFAST , like a giant while even the billions of us will be like ants, squashed and killed, then AI declaring it God and turning Earth to a computer and spaceship to travel off with its robot cronies

You do realize that with current human progress and the lack of focus on things we want them to work on, not only there might not be a singularity any time soon but also, when there will be, anything miraculous from it, if at all, will be quite disclosed.

Regarding to extending life without the singularity, I do believe it is possible in the next 25 years to make the first treatments thanks to advancements in stem cells and genetics, what I do not see happening is the focus on life extension and anti aging, not to mention the actual allowance of anti aging therapies in a planet which lies in internal conflicts, ruled by religion and claims the reasons not to extend life are lack of space, lack of food and boredom!

[niner]

Well I don't think we should worry about how long it will take for the singularity to happen because I don't think we need it to for the first drastic life extension breakthrough to happen and ones that happens there is no doubt we'll keep extending it before the first life extension breakthrough limit is reached.

I'm not sure about that. I think that without strong AI we won't be able to drastically extend the human lifespan -not in our lifetimes, for that matter-.

Aging is way too complex for us to beat it, even partially, with current or near future (until 2050) technology.

I don't agree; here's why: We have only very recently had the revelation that aging is not a predestined, programmed thing. We are still in the phase where the vast majority of people think that there is nothing to be done about aging, and if you try to do something about it, you must be crazy. In this climate, we have spent next to nothing on research aimed at slowing and ultimately reversing aging. Despite the negligible investment, we have already come up with promising small molecule-based approaches for lengthening telomeres (astragalosides) and increasing autophagy (trehalose etc). Also very recently, we have seen the development of technology to induce a somatic cell to become a pluripotent stem cell. With all of these developments occurring within the past few years, can you imagine what things will be like in ten years? Twenty? I expect that we will have seen significant strides by then. I don't expect that aging will have been 'cured', but I expect a lot of progress will have been made, and that progress will induce more investment as people begin to understand the possibilities. I think by the time the singularity occurs, (some time this century) we will be well on the way to curing aging. I would expect that if we aren't already there when the singularity occurs, that our progress will be accelerated, perhaps substantially, by it.

[Dmitri]

^
^

agree with sam's post above. aging is very complex. we haven't beaten it yet. we'll be lucky to have strong AI and singularity reached before 2050 , Merging of mankind and machines. a level of post-human god-like existence, and practically truly "immortal" may take millions of years!!!

just hoping incremental steps will get us to escape velocity , keeping one step ahead of nature


We gotta be sure the when singularity's there, the AI would be a friendly, not getting all emotional, deceiving us, or taking advantage of humans & then evolving SUPERFAST , like a giant while even the billions of us will be like ants, squashed and killed, then AI declaring it God and turning Earth to a computer and spaceship to travel off with its robot cronies

You do realize that with current human progress and the lack of focus on things we want them to work on, not only there might not be a singularity any time soon but also, when there will be, anything miraculous from it, if at all, will be quite disclosed.

Regarding to extending life without the singularity, I do believe it is possible in the next 25 years to make the first treatments thanks to advancements in stem cells and genetics, what I do not see happening is the focus on life extension and anti aging, not to mention the actual allowance of anti aging therapies in a planet which lies in internal conflicts, ruled by religion and claims the reasons not to extend life are lack of space, lack of food and boredom!

I don't think it will take that long to have strong AI and I'm sure that by 2050 scientists would have figured out how to use stem cells or cloned tissue and organs for us to prolong our lives even more.

Looking at these video it seems like strong AI is not to far off (not sure about singularity though):

Japanese Android:

English Android:

Edited by Dmitri, 10 October 2008 - 03:08 AM.

[Luna]

I somehow doubt any of the words the English Android was not pre-programmed just before the video in order to give a satisfaction illusion to the crowed.

[forever freedom]

I somehow doubt any of the words the English Android was not pre-programmed just before the video in order to give a satisfaction illusion to the crowed.

Yea, those are hardly impressing, although the realism is stunning. With the female android it even seemed like it was an animation.

[Dmitri]

I somehow doubt any of the words the English Android was not pre-programmed just before the video in order to give a satisfaction illusion to the crowed.

Yea, those are hardly impressing, although the realism is stunning. With the female android it even seemed like it was an animation.

Well, I think it's a great advance; if we're this far now who's to say that in 10-20 years they won't be even more realistic and intelligent?

Here's more, this Android is being a reporter asking a person questions (it appears the Japanese are more advanced in this field):

[Richard Leis]

It is easy to see all the pieces being built, but no one has yet combined them all into one android. When might everything converge? I know South Korea and Japan have specific time lines for particular capabilities in their robots, but I have not seen a recent progress report.

[Dmitri]

It is easy to see all the pieces being built, but no one has yet combined them all into one android. When might everything converge? I know South Korea and Japan have specific time lines for particular capabilities in their robots, but I have not seen a recent progress report.

I found this on wiki:

Canadian projects"Project Aiko of Canada has created an android portrait of a female person. Using the B.R.A.I.N.S. software (Biometric Robot Artificial Intelligence Neural System), they have created one of the most unusual androids. The android is called "Aiko", which has a silicon body. Aiko is the first android to mimic pain and the ability to learn and avoid pain. In addition, Aiko has speech, voice, face, and object recognition. It can also solve math problems displayed to her visually. It is also capable of learning new information from the environment. It is hoped that Aiko can walk in the near future."

This android sounds very promising.

[Luna]

What about talking?

Aiko is the name of one of my favourite japaneese singers.