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Refuting de Grey


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#61 Proconsul

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 08:27 AM

The problem with mr Lalancette is not his skepticism. Skepticism and doubts are generally good things, they help to develop critical thinking and to keep in touch with reality. The problem with him is his attitude. Most of us - me for sure - are here because they think that aging and death are bad things that are going to affects us, and we hope to be able to do something about it. Mr Lalancette comes here and tell us: 'Hey guys, don't even bother. I'm here to prove that you are wrong and to crush your hopes. And I really hope I will'. Even if he were right and wanted to tell us, I believe he should use a little more tact and respect. I may be blunt, but that's not the kind of attitude that's going to gain my simpathy (even if he probably doesn't give the classic rat's s**t about it anyway). Perhaps I should just grow a thicker skin.


There is no way that this won't sound terribly condescending, Proconsul, but have you considered Religion? I understand the need most people have to live by illusions. Life is hard and people die. My point is that if you need an illusion, at least choose a beautiful one. de Grey's illusion is ugly, coated, as it is, with lots of technical jargon designed to give it a thin veneer of scientific credibility.


You have totally misunderstood me. I don't want illusions. SENS and LEV are not my 'religions' and De Grey is not my guru. I don't have any guru. SENS is just a possible path towards life extension, and if it will be followed, I expect there will be extensive modifications to it (like in the execution of every complex project). LEV is just a possibility. OF course I hope for this possibility, but I certainly don't want to ignore the difficulties and the odds - which are probably against it, even if at this stage are difficult to quantify. As for the hate towards Transhumanism and De Grey that you openly admit, I don't know where it comes from, but have you asked yourself if it isn't clouding your judgement?

#62 HP Lalancette

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 01:16 PM

SENS is just a possible path towards life extension, and if it will be followed, I expect there will be extensive modifications to it (like in the execution of every complex project). LEV is just a possibility.


You do take a risk however. If SENS doesn't work, then you have wasted precious years of your life worrying about your death. Wouldn't it be prudent to at least wait for the demonstration of SENS in a mouse? According to de Grey, there is a 90% chance that this will happen by 2012.

#63 Proconsul

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 05:51 PM

SENS is just a possible path towards life extension, and if it will be followed, I expect there will be extensive modifications to it (like in the execution of every complex project). LEV is just a possibility.


You do take a risk however. If SENS doesn't work, then you have wasted precious years of your life worrying about your death. Wouldn't it be prudent to at least wait for the demonstration of SENS in a mouse? According to de Grey, there is a 90% chance that this will happen by 2012.


I don't understand what you mean. I'm not personally working in the SENS project (even if, yes, I'd like to). And I've been worried about death and aging as long as I can remember, far before I heard about SENS, life extensionism and the like. And about risks, aren't they part of every human enterprise?

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#64 niner

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 06:18 PM

SENS is just a possible path towards life extension, and if it will be followed, I expect there will be extensive modifications to it (like in the execution of every complex project). LEV is just a possibility.

You do take a risk however. If SENS doesn't work, then you have wasted precious years of your life worrying about your death. Wouldn't it be prudent to at least wait for the demonstration of SENS in a mouse? According to de Grey, there is a 90% chance that this will happen by 2012.

This makes no sense to me. I'm not wasting anything by my belief that SENS is worth a bit of funding, and I'm certainly not wasting anything "worrying" about my death. What exactly am I supposed to be doing while I wait for the mouse demonstration? Not exercising or eating well because it's all so futile?

I would really like to hear an explanation for your hatred of Transhumanism. You've been asked about this a couple times now, but so far have been mute on the topic.

#65 b0gger

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 07:03 PM

Hello. I am a new member to this forum and I have a blog...

Nice to see you, HP Lalancette.
About your blog. It's pre-moderated. Why would you do that X) ?.
Here you claimed, that "The exponential improvement in the price-to-performance ratio of computers is not the extension of a long term trend stretching back to the origin of life but is merely a local trend and so will inevitably end."
I don't get it. Some animals did extinct. Some are definitely alive. And there are very-very ancient species, whish are here since the dawn of time. So what?

If to look from cosmological point of view upon Singularity, it all makes sense. We all were an electro-magnetic wave, then atoms of our bodies were fused inside a paleo-star, which became supernova. And so on. Therefore species are not the only phase of evolution of the Universe.
Say, is not it evident, that we are not plain animals anymore? We are a human phase of evolution. And singularity is the next phase. Digital world merges with material one even as we speak. Digital money are very real. Life can be printed, and so on.
Your basic reason of refuting transhumanism is to avoid possible negative consequences. If to read point 3 here, at WTA web-site, it says "We recognize that humanity faces serious risks, especially from the misuse of new technologies." - which makes them no less thoughtful then you are. However noone demolishes LHC, because only schizophrenic retrograde would do such a thing. Don't overdo your "I've seen the future and it doesn't work" thing.

#66 Proconsul

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Posted 01 February 2009 - 03:59 PM

Hello. I am a new member to this forum and I have a blog...

Nice to see you, HP Lalancette.
About your blog. It's pre-moderated. Why would you do that X) ?.
Here you claimed, that "The exponential improvement in the price-to-performance ratio of computers is not the extension of a long term trend stretching back to the origin of life but is merely a local trend and so will inevitably end."
I don't get it. Some animals did extinct. Some are definitely alive. And there are very-very ancient species, whish are here since the dawn of time. So what?

If to look from cosmological point of view upon Singularity, it all makes sense. We all were an electro-magnetic wave, then atoms of our bodies were fused inside a paleo-star, which became supernova. And so on. Therefore species are not the only phase of evolution of the Universe.
Say, is not it evident, that we are not plain animals anymore? We are a human phase of evolution. And singularity is the next phase. Digital world merges with material one even as we speak. Digital money are very real. Life can be printed, and so on.
Your basic reason of refuting transhumanism is to avoid possible negative consequences. If to read point 3 here, at WTA web-site, it says "We recognize that humanity faces serious risks, especially from the misuse of new technologies." - which makes them no less thoughtful then you are. However noone demolishes LHC, because only schizophrenic retrograde would do such a thing. Don't overdo your "I've seen the future and it doesn't work" thing.


Hi Bogger. I think mr. Lalancette wants to say that the current trend in computer performance is not something that has always existed, but it's a phenomenon restricted to a limited time frame, and so it will inevitably end, even if at the moment the increase is exponential, as described by Moore's Law. I agree that the current computer technology will one day reach maturity and the speed of improvement will decrease and ultimately become negligible. However it's very probable that very different computer technologies will be introduced, which will offer a performance boost bigger than the one given by today's intergrated circuits (I'm thinking particularly to quantum computers). This phenomenon has happened before in the history of technology (jet engines replacing piston engines are a classic example) and is a powerful argument against the statement that the 'law of diminishing returns' will inevitably block development in a given area (for instance anti-aging).

#67 Prometheus

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Posted 01 February 2009 - 10:21 PM

You do take a risk however. If SENS doesn't work, then you have wasted precious years of your life worrying about your death. Wouldn't it be prudent to at least wait for the demonstration of SENS in a mouse? According to de Grey, there is a 90% chance that this will happen by 2012.

I think its important to consider that sens is in fact more than a hypothetical framework for addressing aging. It manifests as a sociocultural movement that moves beyond the science and taps into the same place where the primordial desire to explore, discover and transcend reside.. Sens helps to - for the first time in mans history - render death as something that can be considered treatable, and consequently, alters the fundamental premise of the human condition. If it wasn't sens per se, it would have been, in time something else.

Methodological and scientific details aside (these things can and I am sure will evolve in the right direction in due course) sens is a true paradigm shift for the human condition. And this is a natural evolutionary step for man.

#68 Michael

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 10:09 PM

Michael, thanks for the references you've provided on allotopic expression - the Ellouze study is cool. but you haven't made your case, because: 1. Methodologically, the technology required to implement allotopic expression in an adult human does not exist - albeit in vivo, the study you mentioned looked at electroporation with plasmid DNA for transient expression in limited cell numbers

You'll note that I specified that fact in my post:

we certainly won't use electroporation. But the answer [to how to do this in an adult human] is reasonably obvious: somatic gene therapy,


I see now, however, that I should have been more explicit about the question I was answering in my reply. Your original question was in response to niner's statement that "Most if not all of SENS is based on applications of known technology", which of course is not literally true as it stands; I assume that he meant (and wrongly assumed that you would understand) the same thing that Aubrey emphasizes in his academic and popular-audience publications, and has done since the first SENS publication with his colleagues in 2002 (1): that the biotechnologies required to develop a comprehensive panel of rejuvenation therapies based on the SENS 'engineering' approach are either available now or are clearly foreseeable from existing developments in the field:

intervention to remove the accumulating damage [of aging] would sever the link between metabolism and pathology, and so has the potential to postpone aging indefinitely. We survey the major categories of such damage and the ways in which, with current or foreseeable biotechnology, they could be reversed. Such ways exist in all cases, implying that indefinite postponement of aging--which we term "engineered negligible senescence" -- may be within sight.(1)

Certainly, no one is saying that "the technology required to implement allotopic expression (or, for that matter, any other SENS therapy) in an adult humans" is available today -- otherwise, we'd be doing it! But studies like the ones I cited, and other more advanced work in other SENS strands, clearly point the way forward in the foreseeable future toward the development of a comprehensive panel of therapies to remove, repair, replace, or render harmless the cellular and molecular damage that underlies age-related frailty.

2. Despite some evidence of intracellular localization of nuclear-expressed mitochondrial mRNA, there is no evidence of sufficient understanding on the regulation and expression of the transferred genes.

We don't need to understand the details of their regulation and expression -- only to exploit the machinery governing them, which (again) already does this job for other nu-encoded mt proteins. Thus, for example, cytochrome b of Complex III is mt-coded, but the other dozen subunits are nu-encoded in 1:1 ratio. The Complex can't function if the proteins' stoichiometry isn't maintained, so expressions of all subunits has to be coordinated. Cells already successfully synchronize Rieske protein and other subunits in lockstep with cytochrome b, and do so in response to actual requirements rather than constitutively, despite the fact that the transcription and translation of the various subunits, and the machinery that performs it, are distinct.

It would be interesting and rewarding work for basic scientists to spend a great deal of effort in exploring the details of how this is done -- but we don't need to understand these details to exploit them. Instead, we take the regulatory sequence of Rieske protein, and we preface it to cyt b, and voilà -- instant lockstep regulation of expression.

I remain dubious about why you would use the name 'replenisens' when you're not actually conducting any research in this area, or at least have a plan..

I remain puzzled as to the reasons for your dubiousness. The only thing that I can think is that you may be confusing SENS -- the "Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence" -- with the Methuselah Foundation -- the concrete medical charity with a mission to advance the development of a comprehensive panel of such therapeutics, which (as Elrond, myself, and others have emphasized) has no intention of developing the entire panel in-house, but instead of opening up the bottlenecks in the path forward.

de Grey's sens is about engineering strategies, isn't it? Where's the associated proposed engineering solution?

Stem cells and tissue engineering. So, for instance:

Surprisingly, the greatest paucity of activity as regards to sens is in this area (stem cell therapies)..

Of course, you're aware that there is an enormous amount of activity already underway in this area, in both the public and the private sphere; this is advancing the maturation of the "Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence" quite adequately for the time being, making other areas (like the MF-funded work on obviation of mitochondrial mutations noted above) more rate-limiting in our progress and thus the priorities of the Foundation.

It's occurred to me, that what is particularly interesting, is that if you were to actually apply the 'engineering' approach as per de Grey's interpretation, the quickest way to treat aging and associated disease given the practical restrictions of methodological implementation, is to use stem cell treatments, which can be used, incidentally, also to correct genetic defects. In fact, there's a stem cell based solution for all of the '7 causes'.. This is not to say that I agree with 7 but that the 7 described can be addressed with stem cell treatments..

Quite a few problems with that, but most notably: (a) you'd still have to remove the existing, non-stem-cell damage from the biologically aged body (genetically engineered stem cells would not remove extracellular aggregates, cleave AGE crosslinks from vascular collagen, restore the integrity of frayed elastin lamellae, etc), and (b) it would seem that you'd have to replace all of the cells of an aging body to achieve what would be needed, which would run into some rather serious problems of individual continuity when you got rid of all the existing neurons ...

I suspect that at the time sens was conceived, stem cell research was very different to where it is today. Which supports the notion that sens, like some sort of 10 commandments handed down from God, has crystalized, in principle, to the time it was first conceived and appears to take no notice of ongoing scientific developments.

I am very puzzled as to why you would think that. Cell loss and tissue atrophy were identified as key targets for SENS, and stem cells and tissue engineering identified as the 'engineering' solution, in the first SENS publication (1), and were already in Aubrey's mind when the basic framework of the 'engineering' pathway were conceived in 2000 (2). Subsequent developments have simply confirmed his (and his coauthors') original optimism on this front.

-Michael

References
1. Time to talk SENS: critiquing the immutability of human aging.
de Grey AD, Ames BN, Andersen JK, Bartke A, Campisi J, Heward CB, McCarter RJ, Stock G.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2002 Apr;959:452-62; discussion 463-5.
PMID: 11976218 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

2. de Grey AD, Rae M.
Ending Aging: The rejuvenation breakthroughs that could reverse human aging in our lifetime.
New York, NY: St. Martin's Press, 2007.

#69 HP Lalancette

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 10:32 PM

I agree that the current computer technology will one day reach maturity and the speed of improvement will decrease and ultimately become negligible. However it's very probable that very different computer technologies will be introduced, which will offer a performance boost bigger than the one given by today's intergrated circuits (I'm thinking particularly to quantum computers). This phenomenon has happened before in the history of technology (jet engines replacing piston engines are a classic example) and is a powerful argument against the statement that the 'law of diminishing returns' will inevitably block development in a given area (for instance anti-aging).


Information technology (broadly defined) will eventually reach a plateau and IT will be a commodity. Logically, it can't go on forever. Eventually, you run out of paradigms.

#70 Prometheus

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 10:57 PM

Information technology (broadly defined) will eventually reach a plateau and IT will be a commodity. Logically, it can't go on forever. Eventually, you run out of paradigms.

True, the point is at some stage before running out of paradigms, however, many problems will be solved. :)

#71 HP Lalancette

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Posted 03 February 2009 - 12:35 AM

Information technology (broadly defined) will eventually reach a plateau and IT will be a commodity. Logically, it can't go on forever. Eventually, you run out of paradigms.

True, the point is at some stage before running out of paradigms, however, many problems will be solved. :)


And my point is that we have no way of knowing if aging will be one of those things that will be solved.

#72 Cyberbrain

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Posted 03 February 2009 - 01:22 AM

Information technology (broadly defined) will eventually reach a plateau and IT will be a commodity. Logically, it can't go on forever. Eventually, you run out of paradigms.

True, the point is at some stage before running out of paradigms, however, many problems will be solved. :)


And my point is that we have no way of knowing if aging will be one of those things that will be solved.

I'm curious to know what your educational background (what was your major in college, are you in school now, do you have a Ph.D., etc) is, since you seem to know so much about science and technology to make such claims ... just curious :)

Edited by Kostas, 03 February 2009 - 01:23 AM.


#73 Cyberbrain

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Posted 03 February 2009 - 01:33 AM

SENS is just a possible path towards life extension, and if it will be followed, I expect there will be extensive modifications to it (like in the execution of every complex project). LEV is just a possibility.


You do take a risk however. If SENS doesn't work, then you have wasted precious years of your life worrying about your death. Wouldn't it be prudent to at least wait for the demonstration of SENS in a mouse? According to de Grey, there is a 90% chance that this will happen by 2012.

Well it doesn't matter anyway, because we all know whats coming in 2012!



#74 HP Lalancette

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Posted 03 February 2009 - 04:10 AM

I'm curious to know what your educational background (what was your major in college, are you in school now, do you have a Ph.D., etc) is, since you seem to know so much about science and technology to make such claims ... just curious :)


PhD. Materials Science.

#75 Prometheus

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Posted 03 February 2009 - 06:37 AM

Information technology (broadly defined) will eventually reach a plateau and IT will be a commodity. Logically, it can't go on forever. Eventually, you run out of paradigms.

True, the point is at some stage before running out of paradigms, however, many problems will be solved. :)


And my point is that we have no way of knowing if aging will be one of those things that will be solved.


Indeed.

However it is more practical if we can have a sense of optimism rather than despair and it is more useful to harness the energy of someone like de Grey rather than seeking to discredit him.

#76 gattaca

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Posted 03 February 2009 - 04:36 PM

More damning though is that as far as I can tell, de Grey has never actually collected a data point. He has no experimental background whatsoever. In fact, since he was never educated as a biologist, he literally has never done any laboratory work at all. If he had, he might have some humility about what can be done in the real world using science and technology.


If it takes formal training and an expensive degree to get someone like you to listen to an idea, then I'll save my money and let you live in ignorance.

#77 HP Lalancette

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Posted 04 February 2009 - 03:31 AM

Indeed.

However it is more practical if we can have a sense of optimism rather than despair and it is more useful to harness the energy of someone like de Grey rather than seeking to discredit him.


But according to the EMBO reports criticism, de Grey may be slowing down progress by explicitly linking aging research to 1000 year life spans for living people. He makes it look like aging research is the realm of crackpots which in turn limits funding.

#78 Prometheus

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Posted 04 February 2009 - 09:36 AM

He makes it look like aging research is the realm of crackpots which in turn limits funding.

His projections are based on technological advancement trajectories in varied areas that would support improvements on human longevity, which Kurzweil and others have provided a reasonable rationale for. Actually, 1000 years is not an audacious target given improvements in lifespan that have been achieved in model organisms. Can such a feat be accomplished in a mere 50 years? If we look at where medicine was in 1959 then it would be audacious to say that it would be improbable - let alone impossible - to accomplish. Moreover, I think with the public being made aware that the prospect of substantially extended lifespan is within reach in the next few generations then there would be an increased demand for a focus of resources in this area - an awakening of sorts, which is what I now understand he meant by having certain scientists being in a trance..

From a purely scientific perspective I disagree with some of his interpretations, however, I am aligned with his intent, which I consider to be absolutely benevolent. The more I think about it, the more I recognize the method in his madness, if you will. :)

#79 Prometheus

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Posted 04 February 2009 - 09:45 AM

In my opinion, I don't think you can discredit his intent and there is sufficient room for argument within the theoretical framework behind sens that presently prevents it from being scientifically discredited also.. I also think that there is an argument that can be made against the position adopted by the EMBO article. Therefore, your quest, I'm afraid may be a tad.. quixotic.. :) Best invest your energies in a more worthwhile endeavor.

#80 HP Lalancette

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 12:25 AM

His projections are based on technological advancement trajectories in varied areas that would support improvements on human longevity, which Kurzweil and others have provided a reasonable rationale for.


Do you know that Kurzweil believes that the entire universe will be turned into a giant computer-ball which will then invade parallel universes turning them into giant computer-balls too? What about this is reasonable?

#81 gattaca

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 01:30 AM

His projections are based on technological advancement trajectories in varied areas that would support improvements on human longevity, which Kurzweil and others have provided a reasonable rationale for.


Do you know that Kurzweil believes that the entire universe will be turned into a giant computer-ball which will then invade parallel universes turning them into giant computer-balls too? What about this is reasonable?


Your line of questioning here is telling. Attacking an idea because it is counter-intuitive, or contrary to popular conception? A scientist you are not.

Edited by gattaca, 05 February 2009 - 01:41 AM.


#82 Prometheus

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 06:26 AM

Do you know that Kurzweil believes that the entire universe will be turned into a giant computer-ball which will then invade parallel universes turning them into giant computer-balls too? What about this is reasonable?


lol.. No. Where does he talk about this?

#83 HP Lalancette

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 11:52 AM

Your line of questioning here is telling. Attacking an idea because it is counter-intuitive, or contrary to popular conception? A scientist you are not.


When working in a lab, you should get in the habit of asking yourself if your results make sense. If, for instance, you measure that the efficiency of some machine is 110%, then you shouldn't get all excited and submit your result to the journal Science. Rather you need to check your experimental procedure. Somewhere you must have made a mistake.

Kurzweil's prediction of the entire multiverse inevitably turning into a giant computer-ball falls in this category. Somewhere, he made a mistake. His main mistake is his belief that intelligence is the inevitable result of evolutionary processes. However, evolution is just as likely to produce stupidity as to produce intelligence.

#84 gattaca

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 08:02 PM

Your line of questioning here is telling. Attacking an idea because it is counter-intuitive, or contrary to popular conception? A scientist you are not.


When working in a lab, you should get in the habit of asking yourself if your results make sense. If, for instance, you measure that the efficiency of some machine is 110%, then you shouldn't get all excited and submit your result to the journal Science. Rather you need to check your experimental procedure. Somewhere you must have made a mistake.

Kurzweil's prediction of the entire multiverse inevitably turning into a giant computer-ball falls in this category. Somewhere, he made a mistake. His main mistake is his belief that intelligence is the inevitable result of evolutionary processes. However, evolution is just as likely to produce stupidity as to produce intelligence.


I replied to you quite extensively but the board software deleted my post somehow. Somehow, I don't feel that retyping it will be worth my time. In summary, my reply was to describe the difference between "making sense" in the lab and "making sense" in the sense of being consistent with lay intuition. Your first attack was a layman's critique. It has no place in scientific discourse. You can continue to defend the validity of such an attack, but it lessens you and it lessens the discussion.

I am highly sceptical of your claimed credentials.




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