• Log in with Facebook Log in with Twitter Log In with Google      Sign In    
  • Create Account
  LongeCity
              Advocacy & Research for Unlimited Lifespans


Adverts help to support the work of this non-profit organisation. To go ad-free join as a Member.


Photo

How accurate are Ray Kurzweil's predictions?

kurzweil singularity breakthroughs biomedicine dna sequencing computing brain artificial intelligence robotics

  • Please log in to reply
242 replies to this topic
⌛⇒ support MITOMOUSE via LongeCity!

#1 Arie

  • Guest
  • 22 posts
  • 1
  • Location:the Netherlands

Posted 30 May 2008 - 07:11 PM


In "the age of spiritual machines" of 1999, RK made a lot of interesting predictions about the world of 2009.

Let's have a look:
Personal computers with high resolution interface embedded in clothing and jewelry, networked in Body LAN's.
You're lucky if you happen to own a dumb Blackberry or iPhone.
The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) software.
Actually nobody wants to use it.
Computer displays built into eyeglasses project the images directly onto the user's retinas.
Still science fiction.
In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
The latest offerings from Intel & AMD are still two-dimensional.
Translating Telephone technology is commonly used for many language pairs.
Currently works a little bit on desktop PC's, far from a cellphone application.
Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices. Many of these flying weapons are the size of small birds, or smaller.
Who needs a Surge when you can just send them robo-birds to kill Al Qaeda/Taliban suckers?
Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car's computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax.
This morning my GPS said "general exception error - windows ce restart". Thank God i was not sleeping on the middle of the highway in my computer guided car.

Were his predictions accurate, most of the technology he described should be in the production stage right now.
Unfortunately, they're not even functioning in the laboratory. It's going to take at least another 10 years.

Therefore, we can safely conclude that RK was way too optimistic.
Now if he was wrong about 2009, what about 2019 or 2029?

I don't hate Ray, i read all his books and articles and agree on a lot of topics. But this doesn't look good for his expectations about the first half of the 21st century. Actually, i think Ray is going to eat a lot of his words and will die before reaching escape velocity to radical life extension.
  • like x 1
  • Cheerful x 1

#2 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,357 posts
  • 68

Posted 30 May 2008 - 07:58 PM

I think you'll be interested in this thread.. Talks about the exact same subject and has a lot of info and replies already.



Were his predictions accurate, most of the technology he described should be in the production stage right now.
Unfortunately, they're not even functioning in the laboratory. It's going to take at least another 10 years.

Therefore, we can safely conclude that RK was way too optimistic.
Now if he was wrong about 2009, what about 2019 or 2029?

I don't hate Ray, i read all his books and articles and agree on a lot of topics. But this doesn't look good for his expectations about the first half of the 21st century. Actually, i think Ray is going to eat a lot of his words and will die before reaching escape velocity to radical life extension.


I also don't completely share kurzweil's optimism, but even if his predictions have a delay time of 10 or 20 years (pretty reasonable and conservative scenario), that's fine with me. As for kurzweil, he better keep taking his hundreds of pills because it's going to be a tuff ride for him to stay alive!

Edited by sam988, 30 May 2008 - 07:59 PM.


sponsored ad

  • Advert

#3 Mind

  • Life Member, Moderator, Secretary
  • 16,371 posts
  • 2,000
  • Location:Wausau, WI

Posted 30 May 2008 - 08:33 PM

In "the age of spiritual machines" of 1999, RK made a lot of interesting predictions about the world of 2009.

Let's have a look:
Personal computers with high resolution interface embedded in clothing and jewelry, networked in Body LAN's.
You're lucky if you happen to own a dumb Blackberry or iPhone.

Far from widespread adoption but it is here. Maybe you haven't heard of Sensatex.

The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) software.
Actually nobody wants to use it.

Not the end of the story. Fast and precise speech to text software exists, but the market penetration is small. Just because people have not widely adopted a product does not mean Kurzweil was completely off

Computer displays built into eyeglasses project the images directly onto the user's retinas.
Still science fiction.

Wrong. I know of several companies who have produced prototypes of this type of device right now in 2008 with plans for mass marketing within 2 years. here is one. Not science fiction in the least.

In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
The latest offerings from Intel & AMD are still two-dimensional.

IBM uses 3D stacking of components. AMD and Intel are actively pursuing 3D tech.

Translating Telephone technology is commonly used for many language pairs.
Currently works a little bit on desktop PC's, far from a cellphone application.

Not a poor prediction. Language translators are available and getting better.

Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices. Many of these flying weapons are the size of small birds, or smaller.
Who needs a Surge when you can just send them robo-birds to kill Al Qaeda/Taliban suckers?

The U.S. military is using unmanned drone planes extensively and has smaller prototypes. Not only that, ground robots have been an indispensable tool in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car's computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax.
This morning my GPS said "general exception error - windows ce restart". Thank God i was not sleeping on the middle of the highway in my computer guided car.

This one is a ways off, however the Darpa Grand challenge and Darpa Urban challenge at least show that Kurzweil was in the ballpark.



Were his predictions accurate, most of the technology he described should be in the production stage right now.
Unfortunately, they're not even functioning in the laboratory. It's going to take at least another 10 years.

Therefore, we can safely conclude that RK was way too optimistic.
Now if he was wrong about 2009, what about 2019 or 2029?

I don't hate Ray, i read all his books and articles and agree on a lot of topics. But this doesn't look good for his expectations about the first half of the 21st century. Actually, i think Ray is going to eat a lot of his words and will die before reaching escape velocity to radical life extension.


Talk to me on December 31st 2009 and then we can issue the final judgement. For crying out loud, it is only May of 2008! I don't think Kurzweil has been too far off the mark and is still the most accurate long term futurist. Nobody else is even trying.

⌛⇒ support MITOMOUSE via LongeCity!

#4 Live Forever

  • Guest Recorder
  • 7,475 posts
  • 9
  • Location:Atlanta, GA USA

Posted 30 May 2008 - 08:39 PM

In "the age of spiritual machines" of 1999, RK made a lot of interesting predictions about the world of 2009.

I am sure he won't get everything right (we still have another year and a half till the end of 2009, so he has got a little time left) but reading through the text in the link you provided, I am amazed at the accuracy of his predictions so far.

For instance, "Cables are disappearing. Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology." I see this happening all around, and it is increasing every day. Really, most of the stuff I am reading on there, I think, "Hmm, this doesn't sound all that remarkable and probably will happen soon" whereas 10 years ago I would have thought it sounded crazy.

Talk to me on December 31st 2009 and then we can issue the final judgement. For crying out loud, it is only May of 2008! I don't think Kurzweil has been too far off the mark and is still the most accurate long term futurist. Nobody else is even trying.

I am with you, Mind. A year and a half is a long time in technology development. Let's revisit the topic at the end of 2009/beginning of 2010 and see how accurate he was. (might be a fun New Years 2010 thing to do)

Edited by Live Forever, 30 May 2008 - 08:43 PM.


#5 Arie

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 22 posts
  • 1
  • Location:the Netherlands

Posted 30 May 2008 - 08:46 PM

I think you'll be interested in this thread.. Talks about the exact same subject and has a lot of info and replies already.


Ahh thanks Sam, i am new on this forum and this was my first post!
Interesting thread indeed, i see you were raising exactly the same points.

May i also quote from you:

Another thing that i've noticed, is that Kurzweil, taking his everyday 250 pills, claims to be like a 40 year old when doing some aging tests that are definitely not a consensus about if they really measure age or not.
Now look at one of his latest pics, in stanford in 2006, and tell me if he looks like a 40 year old.

The impression i now started having is that he "rushes" these predictions so much so they will match his wishful thinking of being still alive when we have the technology to give us indefinite lifespans.


Exactly what was in my mind. Ray is not a neutral observer. He wants these changes to happen as fast as possible, let's say it plain and frank: to have awesome powers and ultimately live forever like a god. Hell, that's what i would like!

Even if you're a fan of Ray, and agree with his basic ideas about accelarating change, you've got to admit he's reaching some of his conclusions way to carelessly. For example stating "life expectancy was only 30 years then, it's 70 years now, so it will be 150 years soon" as if life expectancy is not limited by life span. Or when he uses pathetic lab-mice with knock-out insulin-receptor gene as an example to prove that we're soon going to have engineered bodies that will stay slim and healthy while eating junkfood and icecream as much as we want.

And yeah i believe there will be a "singularity" of some sort, AI and extreme life extension, i just don't believe it is possible to predict the timeframe of those changes purely on the basis of growth in hardware properties like flops/bandwidth/etc.

#6 Arie

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 22 posts
  • 1
  • Location:the Netherlands

Posted 30 May 2008 - 09:59 PM

In "the age of spiritual machines" of 1999, RK made a lot of interesting predictions about the world of 2009.

Let's have a look:
Personal computers with high resolution interface embedded in clothing and jewelry, networked in Body LAN's.
You're lucky if you happen to own a dumb Blackberry or iPhone.

Far from widespread adoption but it is here. Maybe you haven't heard of Sensatex.


Thanks for your reply. Indeed, most of your examples are far from widespread adoption, some are even no more than ideas, just notes on the drawing table. And that's the problem, because Ray claimed these technologies would work well and be commonly used.



Sorry, this Sensatex Smartshirt can't impress me. It hardly qualifies as a computer, it's basically a sensor that emits the same sort of data as a pacemaker or sportswatch.



Fast and precise speech to text software exists, but the market penetration is small. Just because people have not widely adopted a product does not mean Kurzweil was completely off



Anybody could have predicted there would be better speech recognition today than in 2000, buy Ray's prediction was that CSR would replace the keyboard, which is just not happening by a long shot.

Wrong. I know of several companies who have produced prototypes of this type of device right now in 2008 with plans for mass marketing within 2 years. here is one. Not science fiction in the least.


Okay not science fiction, but far from a finished and useful product the way Ray described it. What is the resolution/framerate/colorpalette of this device? Probably it is very, very crude with very limited use for common people.

IBM uses 3D stacking of components. AMD and Intel are actively pursuing 3D tech.


Yes, and it is going to take many years to make this into a product for personal computers, if ever. The scienceblogs are filled with promising technologies, often never to be heard of again.

Not a poor prediction. Language translators are available and getting better.


But they're not commonly used over phone lines, and that was the prediction.

The U.S. military is using unmanned drone planes extensively and has smaller prototypes. Not only that, ground robots have been an indispensable tool in Iraq and Afghanistan.


All true, but warfare is not dominated by flying robotic birds, like predicted.

It is dominated by flesh and blood people who die a gruesome death.

Talk to me on December 31st 2009 and then we can issue the final judgement. For crying out loud, it is only May of 2008!


Come on, it takes years to take even a new skin cream to the market. You KNOW it's impossible that 3d-computing and self-driving-vehicles will be mass-produced by december 2009.

I don't think Kurzweil has been too far off the mark and is still the most accurate long term futurist. Nobody else is even trying.


Hey, i'm enthusiastic about Kurzweil, i think he's got a lot of great arguments, i'm all on your side. Just trying to keep my feet on the ground.

#7 Arie

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 22 posts
  • 1
  • Location:the Netherlands

Posted 30 May 2008 - 10:32 PM

In "the age of spiritual machines" of 1999, RK made a lot of interesting predictions about the world of 2009.

I am sure he won't get everything right (we still have another year and a half till the end of 2009, so he has got a little time left) but reading through the text in the link you provided, I am amazed at the accuracy of his predictions so far.

For instance, "Cables are disappearing. Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology." I see this happening all around, and it is increasing every day. Really, most of the stuff I am reading on there, I think, "Hmm, this doesn't sound all that remarkable and probably will happen soon" whereas 10 years ago I would have thought it sounded crazy.


Actually i think the rise of wireless technology was a very safe prediction, and almost any non-singularitarian tech journalist would have predicted the same. You know, in 1999 bluetooth was already in use, so one needed only a little imagination and extrapolation.

Even so, the only technological change in this domain that really impresses me is WiFi for network communication.
Communication between components? Perhaps in 2009 wireless printer communication will break through, for now 99.9% of the people still use cable to connect their printer. And i think there will be hardly demand for wireless displays.

#8 Cyberbrain

  • Guest, F@H
  • 1,755 posts
  • 2
  • Location:Thessaloniki, Greece

Posted 30 May 2008 - 10:45 PM

Let's not also forget that the advancement of technology is not just based on R&D but also on corporate politics.

#9 Live Forever

  • Guest Recorder
  • 7,475 posts
  • 9
  • Location:Atlanta, GA USA

Posted 30 May 2008 - 10:51 PM

In "the age of spiritual machines" of 1999, RK made a lot of interesting predictions about the world of 2009.

I am sure he won't get everything right (we still have another year and a half till the end of 2009, so he has got a little time left) but reading through the text in the link you provided, I am amazed at the accuracy of his predictions so far.

For instance, "Cables are disappearing. Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology." I see this happening all around, and it is increasing every day. Really, most of the stuff I am reading on there, I think, "Hmm, this doesn't sound all that remarkable and probably will happen soon" whereas 10 years ago I would have thought it sounded crazy.


Actually i think the rise of wireless technology was a very safe prediction, and almost any non-singularitarian tech journalist would have predicted the same. You know, in 1999 bluetooth was already in use, so one needed only a little imagination and extrapolation.

Even so, the only technological change in this domain that really impresses me is WiFi for network communication.
Communication between components? Perhaps in 2009 wireless printer communication will break through, for now 99.9% of the people still use cable to connect their printer. And i think there will be hardly demand for wireless displays.


Perhaps true, but the closer in predictions probably will be the easiest anyway. I will be much more interested in seeing how close he is in 2029, no matter how close his 2009 predictions are.

⌛⇒ support MITOMOUSE via LongeCity!

#10 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,357 posts
  • 68

Posted 31 May 2008 - 01:01 AM

In "the age of spiritual machines" of 1999, RK made a lot of interesting predictions about the world of 2009.

I am sure he won't get everything right (we still have another year and a half till the end of 2009, so he has got a little time left) but reading through the text in the link you provided, I am amazed at the accuracy of his predictions so far.

For instance, "Cables are disappearing. Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology." I see this happening all around, and it is increasing every day. Really, most of the stuff I am reading on there, I think, "Hmm, this doesn't sound all that remarkable and probably will happen soon" whereas 10 years ago I would have thought it sounded crazy.


Actually i think the rise of wireless technology was a very safe prediction, and almost any non-singularitarian tech journalist would have predicted the same. You know, in 1999 bluetooth was already in use, so one needed only a little imagination and extrapolation.

Even so, the only technological change in this domain that really impresses me is WiFi for network communication.
Communication between components? Perhaps in 2009 wireless printer communication will break through, for now 99.9% of the people still use cable to connect their printer. And i think there will be hardly demand for wireless displays.


Perhaps true, but the closer in predictions probably will be the easiest anyway. I will be much more interested in seeing how close he is in 2029, no matter how close his 2009 predictions are.


But don't forget that the degree of accuracy of predictions made for a certain time period like for 2009 may give us a glimpse of the degree of accuracy of his predictions for the next decades, so it is a good and important thing that we pay attention.

I think that Kurzweil is brilliant but his predictions are a little too rushed up, but he is very good nonetheless to see what's coming and what's going to be developed. As i said earlier, he may be wrong by one or two decades early, but i can live with that.

#11 Live Forever

  • Guest Recorder
  • 7,475 posts
  • 9
  • Location:Atlanta, GA USA

Posted 31 May 2008 - 01:25 AM

Here is an article from just a few days ago about Kurzweil talking about 3D computer chips and some other stuff that he has mentioned in his books:
http://www.businessw...age_top stories

Edited by Live Forever, 31 May 2008 - 01:26 AM.


#12 advancedatheist

  • Guest
  • 1,419 posts
  • 11
  • Location:Mayer, Arizona

Posted 31 May 2008 - 01:48 AM

Hah. F.M. Esfandiary has Kurzweil beat. Read what FM predicted about life in that mysterious, far-future year 2010 back in his 1981 essay, "Up-Wing Priorities":

http://www.box.net/s.../ay9lub60ha.pdf

Around 2010 the world will be at a new orbit in history. We will translive all over this planet and the solar sphere - at home everywhere. We will be hyperfluid: skim on land - swim in the deep oceans - flash across the sky.

Family will have given way to Universal life. People will linkup/linkout free of kinship and possessiveness.

We will stream ahead propelled by a cornucopia of abundance.

Life expectancy will be indefinite. Disease and disability will nonexist.Death will be rare and accidental-but not permanent. We will continuously jettison our obsolescence and grow younger.

At 2000 plus ten all this will be the norm - hardly considered marvelous.


So I guess Bruce will have to disband the Immortality Institute about 19 months from now, because we'll see its mission accomplished.

Edited by advancedatheist, 31 May 2008 - 01:48 AM.


#13 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,357 posts
  • 68

Posted 31 May 2008 - 01:59 AM

Hah. F.M. Esfandiary has Kurzweil beat. Read what FM predicted about life in that mysterious, far-future year 2010 back in his 1981 essay, "Up-Wing Priorities":

http://www.box.net/s.../ay9lub60ha.pdf

Around 2010 the world will be at a new orbit in history. We will translive all over this planet and the solar sphere - at home everywhere. We will be hyperfluid: skim on land - swim in the deep oceans - flash across the sky.

Family will have given way to Universal life. People will linkup/linkout free of kinship and possessiveness.

We will stream ahead propelled by a cornucopia of abundance.

Life expectancy will be indefinite. Disease and disability will nonexist.Death will be rare and accidental-but not permanent. We will continuously jettison our obsolescence and grow younger.

At 2000 plus ten all this will be the norm - hardly considered marvelous.


So I guess Bruce will have to disband the Immortality Institute about 19 months from now, because we'll see its mission accomplished.


I would like to know what proccess of thinking this guy adopted to come to this conclusion about 2010.

#14 Cyberbrain

  • Guest, F@H
  • 1,755 posts
  • 2
  • Location:Thessaloniki, Greece

Posted 31 May 2008 - 02:11 AM

Hah. F.M. Esfandiary has Kurzweil beat. Read what FM predicted about life in that mysterious, far-future year 2010 back in his 1981 essay, "Up-Wing Priorities":

http://www.box.net/s.../ay9lub60ha.pdf

Around 2010 the world will be at a new orbit in history. We will translive all over this planet and the solar sphere - at home everywhere. We will be hyperfluid: skim on land - swim in the deep oceans - flash across the sky.

Family will have given way to Universal life. People will linkup/linkout free of kinship and possessiveness.

We will stream ahead propelled by a cornucopia of abundance.

Life expectancy will be indefinite. Disease and disability will nonexist.Death will be rare and accidental-but not permanent. We will continuously jettison our obsolescence and grow younger.

At 2000 plus ten all this will be the norm - hardly considered marvelous.


So I guess Bruce will have to disband the Immortality Institute about 19 months from now, because we'll see its mission accomplished.


I would like to know what proccess of thinking this guy adopted to come to this conclusion about 2010.

That was 30 years ago. Everyone back then was fantasizing about a technotopia. Nobody, not even today, can imagine what the future will be 30 years from now.

But I can make a pretty good estimate. By the year 2038 I imagine a future like from the movies Children of Man and Idiocracy.

Posted Image+Posted Image=30 years from now :p

Edited by Kostas, 31 May 2008 - 02:12 AM.


#15 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,357 posts
  • 68

Posted 31 May 2008 - 02:15 AM

I saw Idiocracy and i ask how can you think that the future will be anything like that? If anything, we're getting smarter in general as time passes since, as we advance, we have to deal with more and more information than before.

#16 Cyberbrain

  • Guest, F@H
  • 1,755 posts
  • 2
  • Location:Thessaloniki, Greece

Posted 31 May 2008 - 02:28 AM

I saw Idiocracy and i ask how can you think that the future will be anything like that? If anything, we're getting smarter in general as time passes since, as we advance, we have to deal with more and more information than before.

Well, it's just a prediction :p

On one side I put it up as a joke, on the other side I kinda do think that its possible for people to become that dumb. Well not that dumb. But dumb none the less. If you travel to certain parts, if not all parts, of any country such America, Mexico, Russia, even European countries you'll see that intellectuals (educated secular people) make less than 10% of the population.

But I do think that children of man is very realistic (except the whole infertility thing). As overpopulation begins to take place, immigration will explode, governments will begin loosing power, and chaos will become the norm on the streets.

I can only hope the intellectuals of society can prevent this from happening.

#17 VictorBjoerk

  • Member, Life Member
  • 1,761 posts
  • 90
  • Location:Sweden

Posted 31 May 2008 - 08:43 AM

Sometimes predictions of technological progress have been very pessimistic like in the case for aeroplanes.Kurzweil's prediction may be too optimistic but there's definitely not fantasizing.
Funny with the predictions since 1981.



What do you think about De Grey's predictions,are they realistic or too optimistic?

#18 Arie

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 22 posts
  • 1
  • Location:the Netherlands

Posted 31 May 2008 - 09:46 AM

I saw Idiocracy and i ask how can you think that the future will be anything like that? If anything, we're getting smarter in general as time passes since, as we advance, we have to deal with more and more information than before.


It's a comedy ok, but there's some truth behind the idea. It is now a taboo subject, but in the first half of the 20st century lots of intellectuals were afraid that the dumber and more criminally inclined elements of society would outbreed the brighter and more productive ones. Remember the introduction of the movie, a highly educated neurotic woman wonders in front of the camera wether she is "ready" for a child, because of the responsibility, her career etc. In the end she grows old and it's too late. All the while some idiot in a trailerpark is humping welfare recipients, creating a string of dumb offspring in the process.

Reality is not that clearcut ofcourse, but i think we better have smart pills and genetic engineering of our cognitive functions in the future, because intelligence is definately genetic and people with below-average IQ are definately having more children, and at an earlier age, than smarter parents.

Anyway, all these dystopian visions of course make the false assumption that future possibilities will not be that different from today. That's why Al Gore, the peak oilers etc. will be shown wrong. They extrapolate some specific trend as if the underlying processes will always be the same.

#19 Arie

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 22 posts
  • 1
  • Location:the Netherlands

Posted 31 May 2008 - 10:05 AM

Hah. F.M. Esfandiary has Kurzweil beat. Read what FM predicted about life in that mysterious, far-future year 2010 back in his 1981 essay, "Up-Wing Priorities":

Around 2010 the world will be at a new orbit in history. We will translive all over this planet and the solar sphere - at home everywhere. We will be hyperfluid: skim on land - swim in the deep oceans - flash across the sky.


I would like to know what proccess of thinking this guy adopted to come to this conclusion about 2010.


Me too. I guess he was just fantasizing with no theory whatsoever. Like AA says, 2010 looked like the distant future to the people of 1980. I was 9 years old at the time, the year 2000 sounded like magic to me. Nobody thought of the internet or cellphone-camera's, everybody was thinking about personal hovercrafts and lunar exploration.

All of this of course doesn't disprove anything about theories of accellerating change of information technologies.
I definately believe that people like Kurzweil, Drexler, de Grey et al are on to something, and their predictions will be proven far more accurate that either the space age futurists of the '70s or the doomsters of today.

#20 Prometheus

  • Guest
  • 592 posts
  • -3
  • Location:right behind you

Posted 31 May 2008 - 10:57 AM

Talk to me on December 31st 2009 and then we can issue the final judgement. For crying out loud, it is only May of 2008! I don't think Kurzweil has been too far off the mark and is still the most accurate long term futurist. Nobody else is even trying.


yep.

#21 Luna

  • Guest, F@H
  • 2,528 posts
  • 66
  • Location:Israel

Posted 31 May 2008 - 11:13 AM

Well let's hope we're not just fantasizing, it will not be fun to be wrong and die :/

#22 Mind

  • Life Member, Moderator, Secretary
  • 16,371 posts
  • 2,000
  • Location:Wausau, WI

Posted 31 May 2008 - 01:35 PM

Arie. You sound like a "kurzweil-hater" to me. Saying in your first post that everything Kurzweil has predicted is either science fiction, doesn't work, or NOBODY uses it. Clearly untrue and inaccurate statements.

Then in following posts you say "well, anybody could have made those predictions". Another sign that you have an emotional investment in trashing Kurzweil.

I have run into a a lot of people who do this type of thing and I am wondering why people have such a love-hate relationship with Kurzweil. Is it because he has been successful (envy coming into play)? Is it because some people have felt like they have been 'burned' by futurist predictions in the past, so now it is their duty to trash any new futurists who come along?

Predicting the near/far future is a valuable tool for life/business/society. A rational evaluation of predictions should help us better prepare for future challenges.

As far as Kurzweil's near term predictions, they seem pretty on the mark to me. 5 or 10 years from now, I wouldn't be surprised if his scenarios are more off the mark. Similar to how all the 1950s and 60s predictions expected more space travel, but instead we ended up with the internet and cell phones, some different technology path might emerge soon that could throw Kurzweil's predictions off. Maybe quantum computing will lead us in a different direction.

⌛⇒ support MITOMOUSE via LongeCity!

#23 advancedatheist

  • Guest
  • 1,419 posts
  • 11
  • Location:Mayer, Arizona

Posted 31 May 2008 - 03:11 PM

On one side I put it up as a joke, on the other side I kinda do think that its possible for people to become that dumb. Well not that dumb. But dumb none the less. If you travel to certain parts, if not all parts, of any country such America, Mexico, Russia, even European countries you'll see that intellectuals (educated secular people) make less than 10% of the population.


Mexico doesn't have much of a reputation for the life of the mind, but I get the impression that Europeans and Russians receive better basic educations than Americans. I've heard Europeans wonder why many of the American homes they've visited don't have books in them. Russians even during the worst days of the Soviet Union would gather for poetry readings or go to state sponsored performances of opera and classical music.

#24 advancedatheist

  • Guest
  • 1,419 posts
  • 11
  • Location:Mayer, Arizona

Posted 31 May 2008 - 03:22 PM

It is now a taboo subject, but in the first half of the 20st century lots of intellectuals were afraid that the dumber and more criminally inclined elements of society would outbreed the brighter and more productive ones.


A lot of future-thinking intellectuals back then thought that way, for example H.G. Wells. So did the aviator and inventor Charles Lindbergh and the biologist Alexis Carrel, who apparently teamed up in the 1930's to invent artificial replacements for organs so that the smart people like them wouldn't have to die.

http://www.amazon.co...s...7187&sr=1-1

#25 VictorBjoerk

  • Member, Life Member
  • 1,761 posts
  • 90
  • Location:Sweden

Posted 31 May 2008 - 04:32 PM

On one side I put it up as a joke, on the other side I kinda do think that its possible for people to become that dumb. Well not that dumb. But dumb none the less. If you travel to certain parts, if not all parts, of any country such America, Mexico, Russia, even European countries you'll see that intellectuals (educated secular people) make less than 10% of the population.


Mexico doesn't have much of a reputation for the life of the mind, but I get the impression that Europeans and Russians receive better basic educations than Americans. I've heard Europeans wonder why many of the American homes they've visited don't have books in them. Russians even during the worst days of the Soviet Union would gather for poetry readings or go to state sponsored performances of opera and classical music.


How do you define "educated" ?

#26 advancedatheist

  • Guest
  • 1,419 posts
  • 11
  • Location:Mayer, Arizona

Posted 01 June 2008 - 03:19 AM

How do you define "educated" ?


Basic literacy, the habit of reading newspapers, magazines and books, at least a nodding acquaintance with higher culture. You wouldn't likely hear Europeans talk about how the "Vietnamese" bombed Pearl Harbor, something Susan Jacoby claims she heard from two 30-something New York college-graduated financial workers in a restaurant right after September 11, 2001.

#27 niner

  • Guest
  • 16,276 posts
  • 2,000
  • Location:Philadelphia

Posted 01 June 2008 - 03:52 AM

I saw Idiocracy and i ask how can you think that the future will be anything like that? If anything, we're getting smarter in general as time passes since, as we advance, we have to deal with more and more information than before.

To some extent we are already like that. I don't think that people are measurably stupider today in an absolute sense, but it seems like we have become culturally stupider. A vast number of Americans don't even seem to agree on basic facts, much less the consequences of them. Who would have guessed that in the 21st century, we would have such terms as "the reality-based community" and "truthiness"? Like most art of this type, Idiocracy is not a prediction of the future so much as a commentary on the present. The fact that Rupert Murdoch's Fox got cold feet and refused to promote the film is thought by some to be due to this; it hit too close to home with respect to one of their key demographics.

#28 Singularity2045

  • Guest
  • 35 posts
  • -1

Posted 01 March 2009 - 06:28 PM

Hi all, in his book "The Age of Spiritual Machines" Ray Kurzweil has said that in 2009 a $1,000 personal computer will be able to perform about a Trillion calculations per second.

You can read it here (Chapter Nine) -

http://us.penguingro...rpts/exmain.htm


With note number 4 related to it -

http://us.penguingro...notes.htm#note4


Well, now the year IS already 2009, how accurate was he?

How much calculations per second a $1,000 personal computer CAN perform today?

Thanks very much.

Edited by Singularity2045, 01 March 2009 - 06:30 PM.


#29 Mind

  • Life Member, Moderator, Secretary
  • 16,371 posts
  • 2,000
  • Location:Wausau, WI

Posted 01 March 2009 - 07:02 PM

What is the top performance you can get for $1,000. What do the top GPUs crunch?

sponsored ad

  • Advert

#30 Singularity2045

  • Guest
  • 35 posts
  • -1

Posted 01 March 2009 - 07:15 PM

Sorry, but I didn't understand your answer, what is a GPU ? and what is a "GPUs crunch" ?

Please clarified yourself.

Thanks.

  • dislike x 1
  • Ill informed x 1





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: kurzweil, singularity, breakthroughs, biomedicine, dna sequencing, computing, brain, artificial intelligence, robotics

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users