If I were Putin now I would "ignore” attempts to procure "loose nukes" by Iran and allow a small number to cross into that country so long as they were to demonstrate they are in possession of them by detonating within the next 6 months an underground test.
This is definitely a possibility, but I don't think Putin finds this necessary. Iran will be able to go nuclear within the next two years (maybe even less) simply by following IAEA guidelines. No covert, under the table, dealings are really necessary. Hell, for all we know Iran could have one or two nukes already. This is one of the reasons I think we will go after Syria first. Syria is a much less complicated matter. All of this, (absolutely all of this) is predicated on whether one finds a nuclear Iran acceptable. Is our intelligence good enough to guarantee success if a preemptive strike was unleashed on Iran's nuclear reactors? What would the effect of a preemptive strike have on the domestic political climate within Iran (would we be setting back the democratic movement taking hold in Iran)? These are questions that have yet to be answered, and to date, beyond my analysis. I am still working on my policy approach to Iran
They have only tenuous control anyway over some of these stockpiles and regional interests will now pressure their release and they are less vulnerable to a direct response if they aren't in possession of the actual inventories.
You have a point on this one Lazarus. I was watching something on CSPAN a while back about anti proliferation within the former USSR. A really interesting point that one of the Russian journalist brought up was that the US has less influence in counter proliferation then one might be led to believe. He pointed out that a rogue state/terrorist organization that wants to acquire nuclear weapons deal directly with individuals within the buracracy of Russia. AKA, individual Russians get big bucks for proliferating. However, when the US tries to initiate policies to stop proliferation it can only fund government entities, not individuals. Even if the level of funding is equal on both sides of the proliferation game, the US will lose every time. Why? Because a bribe has a lot of "added value" with the Russian Mafia types. In other words, why would a gangster care that we gave Russia billions of dollars in anti-proliferation funds, he is still going to try to smuggle the war heads to the highest bidder.
What we here are failing to realize is that our security is predicated upon facing concentrated forces, their response will be in decentralizing their strategic response and placing it under localized control. This is counter intuitive to classical thinkers because of the concentrated centralized traditions of the Soviet mind set but they are adapting to the changing strategic scenario also and they are decentralizing, as evidenced by their relatively "peaceful breakup” into the current largely Islamic Central Asian States.
I read something to this effect some where in the past. Proliferation is an issue that I am still educating myself on. My counter question(s) would be - 1. What makes you think we can stop this trend anyway if it is in Russia interests to do so? 2. Doesn't this just strengthen my argument for missile defense and superior homeland security? And a side question, "Did we really win the Cold War, or are we just in a new, more sinister phase of it?"
The Chinese have been cooperating with us and "quietly" forcing the DPRK to tone down its rhetoric and scale back, because the Chinese are assessing "How Much" a threat we intend to be to them both sooner and later, but the Russians are reevaluating their entire strategic policy and can do a lot more than just harrie our forces.
Is China being cooperative just a logical assumption on your part (assuming that the only reason DPRK would tone down its rhetoric is because of China?)? One additional point, the Russians have not had the resources to update or improve their arsenal since the break up of the USSR in 1991. Heck, they didn't really improve their arsenal for nearly a decade before that, just increase force strength etc. Plus, Russia's economy has been in the shitter for years and shows no signs of leaving. I think you place too much value on Russia's nuclear arsenal. Our defense technologies are way, way ahead of Russia. So what possible value would Russia's arsenal represent to an anti US bloc. Because, after all, we would not be talking about transfer of stock piles, but of technologies. No, the threat posed by Russia is not its strength, but its weakness.
They turned off all oil to the DPRK for three days and then claimed it was "an accident", then quietly reminded them that the DPRK depends upon China for 80% of its oil, and over 50% of its food. They basically said "talk, or you are on your own AND naked in the wilderness". They have a firm leash on their war dog.
Is this really true? Where did you hear this? I must not have been doing my homework. Only so much time for fun work. [blush]
The Russians (and some of our NATO allies and the Chinese) have already quietly begun to retool their nuclear programs into building tactical nukes as well. The Russians are involved with joint military exercises with Iran, and Iran with India. If German industrial and technological prowess is added to the mix then a credible and formidable strategic match can be generated against the US in a relatively short time. It is in German economic Interest to do business with the Russians if we isolate them further. The French are pondering how to balance this shift, but will likely join with the Eastern Force if we alienate them too. Again it is in their self interest.
Russia has had tactical nukes for years. I have heard nothing of them "retooling". Questions: How long would it take this alliance to solidify? Couldn't the argument be made that an alliance would be less effective at technological advancement than a unified nation (with a huge head start). Do you really think the French or Germans would go that far out of the fold? Aren't you forgetting that other nations have suspicion about nations other than the US (Russia about China)?
Because nuclear stockpiles were being regulated for a time we have some understanding about location and inventories, but we are also aware of hundreds of unaccounted for warheads. These didn't disappear, nor were they just accounting errors, they have been stockpiled at the doors to the "underground movements" as a hedge against what we are now doing and these will little doubt now start getting distributed.
This is bordering on conspiracy theory since I doubt you have any proof of this. However I wouldn't doubt it. The Russians have had suit case nukes for years. What stopped them from smuggling them into the US for a preemptive strike? [ph34r] I think there have been unwritten agreements for many years regarding the strategic balance of power. If this isn't the case, then it is a miracle that we haven't blown ourselves up already.
Obviously we have policy planners that have returned to the idea that a nuclear war can be winnable. MAD has become obsolete regardless, and those who think they can just build bomb shelters and survive to come back out afterward better think twice.
Lazarus, no one wants a nuclear war. Not even us crazy neo-hawks. As far as a nuclear war being winnable...if you could prevent a nuclear strike from actually impacting the continental US, isn't that winning??
If Germany and the Soviets had been able to reach a "meeting of the minds" as Churchill (even more than Roosevelt) accomplished later with his “personally” declared enemy, then we would have a very different world today.
I am a WWII freak. My father use to give me pictorial history books of WWII when I was younger. I would stare at the pictures for hours and hours thinking to myself, jeez did this really happen? WWII was the last great war before the nuclear shadow tempered man's aggressive tendency toward "all out" war. And yes, Hitler was a fool who blew too many chances to be counted. Even the biggest idiots in the world have some luck. The problems for Hitler is that he used up all of his luck early on.
Many see what the US is doing as a Fifth column of the Third Reich moving against the emerging technologies to block their development and control global resources into their economies so as to force compliance with American Doctrine regardless of legitimacy.
Isn't this the very nature of hegemony (controlling technologies and resources that would alter the strategic balance of power)? As long as we rule fairly and humanely I think that is all that can be asked of us. And why do you keep persisting with your Nazi comments? The US is too much of a free, open and fair society to allow us neo-hawks to get away with too much. And Nazi references are just so nasty. I understand that you are trying to illustrate a point about abuse of power, but I don't see the correlation to modern America.
I hope you have found my commentary and questions to be respectable. I have used up all of my crassness for a while. I really am trying to get a wide array of opinions (especially on proliferation). At the ripe old age of 24 (my birthday was the 31st lol ) I still have much I want to learn before I can rule the world.





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