Part 1: Bayesian
You mentioned that most atheists are bayesian. I looked it up, as I don't recall the term.
Here's what I found:
For theism vs. atheism we have two hypotheses: ``God exists'' (H1=G) and ``God doesn't exist'' (H2=notG). U is the sum total of our observations of the universe and I is whatever constraints are placed on the universe before looking at it. One such constraint could be that life form in order for someone to pose the question. As I see no convincing argument for the existence of life to be more consistent with a god existing than one not existing I set p(G|I)=p(notG|I)=0.5. In the end, so long as one doesn't put the constraint that life is inconsistent with a godless universe (p(notG|I) is very near 0), the weightings won't significantly affect the result. We are therefore left with the calculation of p(U|GI) and p(U|notG,I) (the probabilities of the universe we observe occurring if God does and does not exist) determining the probabilities of the two hypotheses.
The question now becomes how many universes are consistent with a god and how many are consistent with no god. Because a god can always create a naturalistic universe the number of god universes must be equal to or greater than the number of godless universes. In addition I think it is obvious that a god greatly expands the number of possibilities over the no god case. A 6000~yr old Earth is allowed with a god but not without. Violations of the conservation of energy is allowed with a god but not without. The same goes for virgin births, `burning bushes', flying reindeer, faith healing, magic carpets, Santa Claus, etc. A godless universe must be limited to a narrow range of possibilities each based on natural laws while a universe with a god has no such restriction. Therefore, p(U|GI) is a very broad function of U with a very small value for any particular U. For an omnipotent god, p(U|GI) goes to zero since all universes are possible. Our universe appears to fall into the category of being run by natural laws so
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One can illustrate this with the following symbolic figure in which the area under each curve is 1.
[ASCII illustration]
Now if this is your definition, then let the focal point be the bold text. This claim, or negation, is based on a creationist viewpoint. It is based upon a god who meddles. More importantly, an extremely weak god. Because honestly, if we admitted some level 9,000 god then we can include a matrix/dark city like universe where memories can be messed around with and reality is but a well designed computer program. Now I'm not going to follow that particular route because I can't imagine it hasn't been done, and more importantly it seems a waste of time because we might as well just write sci-fi novels at that point. Let's take for instance, a deistic god. This whole use of probability and empiricism is entirely bollex because order, life, consciousness is a feature represented in a Deistic Universe as much as it is in a godless universe. So yes, you can probably negate religions with this, but that's easy target practice.
Of course there are bayesians with different conclusions. Theism belongs in philosophy; even science to the extent that it is at all productive.
My point obviously wasn't that being a bayesian 100% negates theism, but it almost seems like you are implying that that is what I was implying (or something like that).
My point was actually that you created a straw man when you expected that atheists claim god to be either an impossibility or of such low probability as to be a priori non-existent. It's a parody.
Lastly I think a multiverse could produce just as many different kinds of universes as a theistic god, so it's just a competition among various prior probabilities, theism, multiverse, simulation, Omega point, etc. Bayesians obviously disagree sometimes.
Part 2: The Artist's and Mathematician's Muse
My whole point with this, is like everything in life, there comes a good and a bad. Did not Descartes believe in a god after his accident, or Newton with his possible manic-depressive episodes? Now sure, you can probably find atheist scientists who have contributed greatly to the progression of the human species, but each person finds a means by which to live, and only through various needs (Maslow's) does one reach actualization and perhaps contribute something to the human race. Now, I realize you're intelligent, but why deny people who need hope their needs. It's like taking away the muse of writers. People need inspiration at times. This is irrelevant to whether or not there is a god, relevant to whether humanity has a suspectibility to believing in a divine, and relevant to whether starting a full out war on something that's too complex for Bayesian probability is a good idea.
Well in my view nothing is reprehensible, it accomplishes very little to simply say something is reprehensible.
But I have very good reasons to conclude that, in general, modern religion is parasitic and not beneficial in the ways that you are alluding to. I think there are better ways to fulfill needs, for the majority of humans, than to believe in a theistic god. I think modern religion is a poor replacement for the proto-religions that were naturally selected across groups of hunter-gatherers. I think science actually replaces certain aspects of such proto-religions, and some sporting events do too (just a few examples).
Part 3: Nietzsche
I would have went with the overman, nay-sayers, and poison makers quote myself
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Part 4: The Hierarchy
It is probably quite likely, in both the views of Marx and Sigmund Freud, that religion is both a form of childhood neurosis and an opiate for the people. However, this is not a refutation of a higher power, but a bold statement saying that belief becomes an opiate, an escape which dulls the senses. That we might grow content of our stature in the world out of a belief that through the act of modesty and self-loathing, we may find our way to some opened gates. This to me is more a warning than an argument as to whether there can be a higher power. Yes it might be the origin of the belief, yes it is quite destructive as we interlace the hologram of divine intervention with the workings of chaos theory, but what simple and easy game you guys seem to aim at.
Actually the point of my Nietzsche quote is to say that a historical refutation, in a Bayesian sense, is quite powerful. You have a prior probability for theism. Then you discover that the basis of your prior probability is generally explainable in terms of social hierarchies and memetics - it sort of takes the bite out of theism. For example have you read any papers by Susan Blackmore on alien abduction claimers/victims? She explains why they believe they were abducted, which should lower your credence in the hypothesis that such people really were abducted by aliens.
Also, there is the idea that 'knowledge' in the absolute sense is non-existent because the criteria for such truth is a fantasy. A
real definition of truth describes the conditional relationships which comprise observations and how the memes of explanation operate, while a
nominal definition of truth is something like correspondence theory. A historical refutation of theism is a
real refutation. It is more complete because it explains the origins of the idea. Only a historical explanation is a
real explanation of theism (this is my opinion obviously).
Comments
I do not mean to suggest that all people are following the herd mentality with this, only that it provides a rudimentary grid by which beliefs follow. That free thought should be exercised and consciously observed, as ideas hold sway over the path beliefs move.
I don't think you will disagree that my points are valid. I don't claim I am absolutely correct and I believe there is room for theistic ideas.
Also, I would claim that theism has been instrumental in actually creating the mind-body problem in the western world. While living in asia I found, by asking people, that people didn't generally have trouble with the idea of brain emulation and SAI, while westerners tend to be very dismissive of the idea. I think that's partly because theism tends to lead people to believe that there is a god and that there is a soul.
Edited by exapted, 26 October 2009 - 08:03 AM.