Currently we are in the midst of a global Swine Flu Pandemic. As of June 11, 2009, Dr. Margaret Chan of WHO declared the Pandemic. This was after a considerable review by scientists in over 30 countries and with no small amount of opposition to its effect economically on countries selling pork or whose tourism trade would be damaged with a highly infectious disease present in their country.
We have been experiencing a wave of transparency concerning outbreaks and infection (the coming of the Pandemic- in which either patient zero came from Texas or from the Veracruz area in Mexico). This was followed on April 28, 2009 by the brakes being put on and less open numbers and testing throughout the month of May. Eventually it was admitted that there were possibly as in contrast with a CDC released figure of 22,000-32,000 confirmed cases, actually as much as a million or more probable cases in the United States in May were then announced. There also was data released from what was quoted in several local publications in New York that instead of the very low figures,given before, from 230,000 to 500,000 persons could be infected.
This is not really a completely new virus. In fact, all three main components (there is a dispute in terms of whether Avian is one) are endogenous to the species of bird, humans, and swine. They have been with us for quite awhile. The problem is there was something akin to a triple recombination and then a link with H1N1. This was serious in that it made it incredibly contagious. If it had the CFR (case fatality rate) of Avian- I would not be posting this and we would have no net at this point.
Swine Flu, (or novel Influenza A H1N1 2009) as it is currently spreading, can increase almost exponentially in weeks. There are examples of doubling or tripling in short periods of time. Last verified check was that 125 countries at least are infected. The number of actual infected people is unknown. Australia went from contain to sustain in which they simply stopped testing. Testing in the general population is almost unheard, and the bedrock of our prep plans rests on fatality figures which are about .5% or less.
Considering the current virus has the genetic muscle to do a second wave-must nastier hit on the planet (after playing mixing bowl in the Southern Hemisphere (Latin America- Australia). It has gone from single cases to infecting entire cruise ships and heavily infected the Victoria region in Australia and Chili in South America- some virolgist and WHO especially is a bit leary and wondering exactly what it will do within the next 60 days. It has infect all of the United States, every state, large regions of Canada, and Mexico, where it started.
IMHO and as expressed by me in other locations on the net, which will increase with the reactivation of some lost posts, we all need to seriously prep for a possible nasty Pandemic second wave.
Panicking is really impractical. So is suppression of the real figures of infection rate. So far, this does appear to be a heavy hitter mortality wise. It does seem likely it will get a little, if not a lot more tough this winter.
Dr. Chan, and I concur (in my very humble capacity as a registered medical researcher-Era Commons as well) has stated we need to take due caution to monitor this virus. It is spreading in India, the U.K., throughout Australia- well- 125 countries is pretty much throughout- the world.
If we wait until we have a known high path bug before storing food and water, before putting into place more robust plans for states and communities, we may be caught flat footed against what could prove to be the heavy hitter of the last 50 years.
It is wise to be cautious. Not fearful, not panicked. And it is wise to act upon that caution by being sure you have enough water, food, and medicine to get you through from 3-6 months at least if you need to. Waiting and watching...
Medclinician
Edited by Medclinician, 09 July 2009 - 10:51 PM.
