Absolutely. It will be in short supply. Even if the actual cost of the treatment is low, I don't see the entire population of the Earth -- all 6 billion+ now and growing -- being given an inoculation that will enable them to live for 800 years. That strikes me as completely impractical.
Keep in mind this is your opinion, not a fact. You are treating it like a fact.
Truth is, the future is extremely hard to predict. The effect of any new technology is extremely hard to predict. Lots of people make the mistake of trying to predict the future by extrapolating the past, which you seem to be doing here, but technology can change everything far more rapidly than you realize.
Eg. there was concern over mass starvation when we started vaccinating against diseases like Smallpox, because this would increase the world's population by significantly reducing childhood mortality. Then, along comes the green revolution. So much for all that pessimism. How many people would be dead or disabled if we'd listened?
Don't let fear of the future rule you.
I anticipate that it will be available, at least in the beginning, only to the wealthy and to those individuals that are close to political power.
Since we don't know what the resolution will be, we can't cost it. It could be prohibitively expensive. You could just as easily be completely wrong, and it could be within the reach of 1/6 of the world's population immediately (ie. the middle class), and improve rapidly from there.
Costs could easily be kept down because of the vast amounts of people that simply don't want to live forever (many of the religious, for example).
Decisions will inevitably be made, by governments or agencies thereof, regardless of whether you think they have the right to make those decisions or not. It is unpleasant, but resources have always been limited, and I don't see that changing any time soon
Part 1 is true: I fear pessimists in charge of government making very stupid decision due to the kind of fear shown here. But, I can always move to a better country.
Part 2: Resources are far less limited than they were 2000 years ago. Plus, you have no idea what resources will be needed. Given extremely great demand, humans can be quite innovative. We complain about the inability to feed the world meat if they all continue to get richer and want more of it... what do you want to bet much cheaper and significantly resource cheaper vat-meat will be available eventually? There's no physical law preventing it, it *will* be done if we want it to be done, and the more we all want meat, the more we will be willing to commit to make it happen if meat starts becoming prohibitively expensive. Funny how that works out. Same idea as life extension, really.
The key thing is, we will not know if we can do it until we try. We will not know the resources needed until the problem is solved. And, the problem *will* be solved, as there is no physical constraint preventing the solution. Its a matter of when, and by whom. We will have to face these problems, either now or in future generations. Its like the atomic bomb, for good or bad once we figure it out its here to stay. Best to work on making sure its a good solution.
- Tracy
LongeCity
