Have you checked out this year's bot contest yet at
http://www.chatterboxchallenge.com/Alice based on AIML is entered along with about 87 other entries.
Currently my bot Project Zandra was running 4th place last times I checked.
Voting by the judges in not complete yet though.
Most bots are based on strict stimulus/response without taking into account that many internal variable states.
My bot has been programmed to try to extract the same information as a human does from an input and then save that information as an internal variable state.
My bot is written in VB.Net
It has about 18,000 patterns a little less than half he 40,000 that Alice has.
But depending upon the expressiveness of your pattern language it is possible to design a language where one pattern is equivelent to many patterns in AIML.
Many times users mispell items in their inputs. Try to design a pattern language that allows misspelled word to be recognized.
Multiple wild cards is also a necessity, as well as several pre and post processing steps to normalize input and output.
You also probably will need to impliment conditional logic, variable assignment, and other functions in your template language if you want to be able to extract and act on contextual information that occurs during the conversation.
Most bot languages allow you to code around 50 patterns in an 8 hour day. So the more expressive your bot language is the less patterns you need match human variations for the same thought.
I have not yet incorporated the Bayesian probablistic or fuzzy logic in my knowledge base as you are describing.
I don't mean to discourage you but plan to devote a considerable chunk of your life to the project if you are attempting to compete or win the Turing test.
Even at 50 ppd (patterns per day) every day it has taken me quite a few years to get as far as I have.
If you could design a system that automate pattern creation from other input sources such as the web or have the bot generate it's own patterns from learning from the user you might be able to jump ahead of the competition in a reasonable period of time.