18 replies to this topic

[Dorho]

I have followed the Euro/Dollar exchange rate some time now and I wanted to share this info with everyone: it is predicted that the value of Dollar will start lowering compared to Euro starting from this point and continuing to the indefinite future.

So, if I were an American who wants to buy something from the Euro area, I'd make my purchasment now. As a European, I will wait a couple of months until I start ordering stuff from USA.

At the moment one EUR is about 1.35 USD. In the coming months the exchange rate may exceed 1.5.

[niner]

At the moment one EUR is about 1.35 USD. In the coming months the exchange rate may exceed 1.5.

My portfolio hopes you're right, but upon what do you base this prediction? Do you know something about Greece that the market doesn't?

[forever freedom]

At the moment one EUR is about 1.35 USD. In the coming months the exchange rate may exceed 1.5.

My portfolio hopes you're right, but upon what do you base this prediction? Do you know something about Greece that the market doesn't?

I actively trade in the forex market, and follow advices from an investor that i've witnessed in the past year to make returns in excess of 50% and everything points to the opposite direction: the Euro is going to keep moving down, and it still has a lot of territory to fall. I wouldn't be surprised if it went to 1.20 (or even below) by the end of the year.

The troubles with Greece won't go away and then there's all the other European countries that are drowning in debt; the widely known PIIGS. Things are very ugly in Europe and the big hedge funds like George Soros' and a bunch of others are making big profits with the demise of the Euro and they're still very bloodthirsty, pounding the Euro down whenever they get a chance.

It's ironic because everyone believed the value of the dollar would evaporate but even after the US government printed all that paper, the dollar is still considered one of the safest, if not the safest place to put one's money when things get dire in the world or a local economy.

Edited by forever freedom, 23 April 2010 - 03:03 AM.

[niner]

At the moment one EUR is about 1.35 USD. In the coming months the exchange rate may exceed 1.5.

My portfolio hopes you're right, but upon what do you base this prediction? Do you know something about Greece that the market doesn't?

I actively trade in the forex market, and follow advices from an investor that i've witnessed in the past year to make returns in excess of 50% and everything points to the opposite direction: the Euro is going to keep moving down, and it still has a lot of territory to fall. I wouldn't be surprised if it went to 1.20 (or even below) by the end of the year.

The troubles with Greece won't go away and then there's all the other European countries that are drowning in debt; the widely known PIIGS. Things are very ugly in Europe and the big hedge funds like George Soros' and a bunch of others are making big profits with the demise of the Euro and they're still very bloodthirsty, pounding the Euro down whenever they get a chance.

It's ironic because everyone believed the value of the dollar would evaporate but even after the US government printed all that paper, the dollar is still considered one of the safest, if not the safest place to put one's money when things get dire in the world or a local economy.

The US has their own "PIIGS"; various states, some of them quite large, that are on the brink of financial collapse. There are so many reasons to expect the dollar to fall in the long term, but in the short term all kinds of crazy stuff can happen. I'm not one of those gold bug crazies who sees hyperinflation in their soup; however, I expect a slow monetization of the US debt. Obama wants to see the US export more. Nothing like a weak currency to get that ramped up.

[JLL]

I emptied my forex account in a margin call, waiting for the euro to bounce back up... now, having listened to people more knowledgeable than me, I think the euro will keep on going down, possibly to parity.

[platypus]

I emptied my forex account in a margin call, waiting for the euro to bounce back up... now, having listened to people more knowledgeable than me, I think the euro will keep on going down, possibly to parity.

I doubt Euro will hit parity unless the shit really starts hitting the fan and there's a global flight to "quality", but 1.2 does not sound like it would be impossible. The Greece-issue needs to be solved soon in any case.

[JLL]

I emptied my forex account in a margin call, waiting for the euro to bounce back up... now, having listened to people more knowledgeable than me, I think the euro will keep on going down, possibly to parity.

I doubt Euro will hit parity unless the shit really starts hitting the fan and there's a global flight to "quality", but 1.2 does not sound like it would be impossible. The Greece-issue needs to be solved soon in any case.

After Greece, Spain will probably be the next big issue, don't you think?

[Dorho]

OK, so my source has updated it's forecast, and the current view is that the low point will be reached in May, but you never know about these things. A butterfly flapping it's wings in Greece may cause a volcanic eruption in Iceland, and so forth.

It's good to see debate around this matter.

[forever freedom]

At this very moment, the EURUSD broke 1.30. It'll keep going lower.

Edited by forever freedom, 04 May 2010 - 06:57 PM.

[forever freedom]

EURUSD now at 1.27.

[niner]

EURUSD now at 1.27.

This sux. Parity would really suck, but I think the odds of that are low. Did any asset class do well yesterday?

[forever freedom]

EURUSD now at 1.27.

This sux. Parity would really suck, but I think the odds of that are low. Did any asset class do well yesterday?

Yeah the odds of parity are virtually zero.

Gold is the most obvious answer, but other than that i don't know, i don't follow many markets other than Forex.

[gomesbs]

Geece's main problem was not only the debt issue but the distrust on their financial information, adding to that EU and the FMI, didn't help immediatly, allowing speculation. Other conutries, kindly abreviated as PIIGS, don't have the information problem, have indeed a debt issue mainly due to the slowing of their economies, which will benefit from the recent Eur/dollar exchange rate.

Of course it would help if EURO countries had highly regarded rating agencies as the US and UK.

[niner]

Of course it would help if EURO countries had highly regarded rating agencies as the US and UK.

Our rating agencies weren't much help in the last mess, what with Goldman (and others) scamming in the CDO market. Come to think of it, Goldman helped Greece cook their books, didn't they?

[gomesbs]

Of course it would help if EURO countries had highly regarded rating agencies as the US and UK.

Our rating agencies weren't much help in the last mess, what with Goldman (and others) scamming in the CDO market. Come to think of it, Goldman helped Greece cook their books, didn't they?

Yes, you're right!

But well, I think the european countries will react with strong measures to balance the debt and will get EU support, so I don't think the exchange rate will come close to parity in the near future.

[dustinw]

...it is predicted that the value of Dollar will start lowering compared to Euro starting from this point and continuing to the indefinite future.

So, if I were an American who wants to buy something from the Euro area, I'd make my purchasment now. As a European, I will wait a couple of months until I start ordering stuff from USA.

At the moment one EUR is about 1.35 USD. In the coming months the exchange rate may exceed 1.5.

I actively trade currencies as well. We've seen that euro sellers were exhausted around this 1.25 area last year, so the advice to Americans purchasing European goods is not unfounded. However, it is far from obvious that the euro will trade above 1.5 any time soon. If it was, who would be your counterparty when you attempt to buy euros below 1.30? Parity is indeed possible, so is 2:1. With the Fed providing currency swaps to the ECB to fund the Greece bailout, the only thing that can be said with any degree of certainty is that both currencies are near worthless and only losing value What they will trade at in relation to the other is just a guess and will be determined by the microstructure of the market and how the coming macroeconomic news is perceived, something only time will tell; so if you don't have some amazing information or the ability to trade profitably, the most prudent thing to do would be stay out of the market.

And no, I would not consider your source's forecast "amazing information"

Edited by dustinw, 12 May 2010 - 01:47 AM.

[forever freedom]

EURUSD already trading below 1.24. Seems like the target i previously posted for the EURUSD of 1.20 or below by the end of the year will come much sooner. George Soros & company are feasting in blood right now.

I don't think Dorho is coming back to this topic, nor give any more investment advices LOL.

As amazing as it may sound, the Euro WILL KEEP GOING DOWN. Europe is a real mess. No government can keep forever spending more than it gets, other than the Empire States of America, because they can "print gold", so to speak (but even them will have to pay their bills eventually, it only takes much longer)...

Edited by forever freedom, 14 May 2010 - 04:27 PM.

[dustinw]

EURUSD already trading below 1.24. Seems like the target i previously posted for the EURUSD of 1.20 or below by the end of the year will come much sooner. George Soros & company are feasting in blood right now.

I don't think Dorho is coming back to this topic, nor give any more investment advices LOL.

As amazing as it may sound, the Euro WILL KEEP GOING DOWN. Europe is a real mess. No government can keep forever spending more than it gets, other than the Empire States of America, because they can "print gold", so to speak (but even them will have to pay their bills eventually, it only takes much longer)...

Yeah, this is crazy, the drop continues to amaze me. We closed the week at the extreme lows of 2008/09. I do wonder what will happen if we gap down below support next week, who is hiding down there

Surely the ECB must be lurking around somewhere, no?

Edited by dustinw, 14 May 2010 - 10:53 PM.

[forever freedom]

EURUSD already trading below 1.24. Seems like the target i previously posted for the EURUSD of 1.20 or below by the end of the year will come much sooner. George Soros & company are feasting in blood right now.

I don't think Dorho is coming back to this topic, nor give any more investment advices LOL.

As amazing as it may sound, the Euro WILL KEEP GOING DOWN. Europe is a real mess. No government can keep forever spending more than it gets, other than the Empire States of America, because they can "print gold", so to speak (but even them will have to pay their bills eventually, it only takes much longer)...

Yeah, this is crazy, the drop continues to amaze me. We closed the week at the extreme lows of 2008/09. I do wonder what will happen if we gap down below support next week, who is hiding down there

Surely the ECB must be lurking around somewhere, no?

The ECB can't do much to hold the Euro.

EURUSD is below 1.20 now, so my target is already hit LOL. This move from 1.35 to 1.20 was very easy money. These things don't happen often..

I'll stay out of the market for a little while now, a correction may develop soon, but for the long term the EURUSD is very likely to continue moving down.

Edited by forever freedom, 04 June 2010 - 07:30 PM.