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Should a Methuselah Fly Prize exist?


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Poll: Would you favor the creation of a Methuselah Fly Prize? (50 member(s) have cast votes)

Would you favor the creation of a Methuselah Fly Prize?

  1. Yes, a Methuselah Fly Prize should be created. (25 votes [54.35%])

    Percentage of vote: 54.35%

  2. No, the Methuselah Mouse Prize is sufficient. (21 votes [45.65%])

    Percentage of vote: 45.65%

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#61 jaydfox

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 02:23 AM

Uhh, yeah, what he said...

This is where I admit that you lost me, Prometheus. I assume though, that it was quite clear to the trained biologists here.

I suppose that as more sophisticated rules need to be debated, I will step aside and allow those more trained than I to handle them.

I have only this to say about both intentional fraud and poor controls:
It has been discussed in the past that the results can be validated by an independent third party (e.g., ship us some eggs/larvae, include any unusual care instructions, and we'll validate the lifespan).

This allows us to remove irrelevant factors such as temperature (irrelevant to mammals, anyway).

This may not work for non-genetic interventions that the original researcher would need to administer, such as drugs, surgical cell replacement therapies (hehe, I couldn't resist ;)), etc. But for strictly germline genetic alterations, this approach is valid, though potentially slow (but only as slow as the reported lifespan!).

Of course, this should be a last resort. I still agree that proper rules can prevent third-party validation from being necessary; as with the MMP, the confirmation step is a failsafe that we hope never detects a problem.

One final note: if the threat of diapause-related fraud (or mistakes) is too great to maintain credibility, would we consider falling back to another species, as others have suggested? Perhaps another insect, or those African fish?

Jay Fox

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 04:18 AM

Don't give up on the venerable fly just yet Jay. The closer you inspect all pertinent variables the more apparent it becomes that it is the ideal organism for the prize. ;)

#63 jaydfox

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Posted 12 August 2004 - 03:55 AM

Between TransVision and the database problems, I see that no one's posted in here for almost a week.

Don't give up on the venerable fly just yet Jay. The closer you inspect all pertinent variables the more apparent it becomes that it is the ideal organism for the prize. ;)

Indeed, further discussions over at the Google sci.life-extension group have convinced me of this.

I was looking through the Methuselah Mouse Prize website again, and something finally struck me. To illustrate what I realized, I have to go back a bit...

It was debated in the Methuselah Prize - You Decide topic whether we should drop the Postponement Prize to focus more on the Reversal Prize. After all, the Reversal Prize is probably going to be based on the technology that ultimately will provide similar dramatic life extension in humans.

Arguments against keeping the PP included that it would draw funds away from the RP, as well as potential competitors. Also, by having a prize for the PP, we are not demonstrating as strong a stance in our belief that the gerontology community needs to focus more on RP-style research.

Arguments in favor of keeping the PP included the PR benefits (these experiments are already taking place, so the prize will hopefully be awarded a few times in the next 5 years, unlike the RP), and the hope that research using germline experiments (only useable for the PP) will help identify what genes to try to target with somatic gene therapies (which can be used in the RP).

So I'm thinking about the PR aspect of the RP: if an experiment is begun today, they will at least need to break the 1551-day lifespan barrier. This is about 4.25 years from now. No PR will be generated by awarding the prize between now and then (other than the inaugural winner).

And that's when it hit me. The current "record-holder" for the reversal prize has a record of 3102 days, because we're doubling the time before intervention. What does that mean for future competitors? Their best chance to beat this is to hope for another Charlie or Yoda: a naturally long-lived mouse, using no interventions during life, and certainly no genetic interventions other than perhaps good breeding.

In order to beat 3102 days, a mouse would have to live 1552 days without intervention. Or, the mouse would have to live 1452 days (almost four years, an amazing feat in itself), and then another 200 days with intervention, for a total of 1652 days. Or, live 1252 days (by which point--statistically--it should be dead), and then another 600 days with intervention (more than a year and a half), for a total of 1862 days (which by the way, is more than the current record for genetic interventions, which have a whole lifetime to work their magic).

Given a typical maximum life span of 1100-1200 days, interventions more realistically will be started well before 1000 days, meaning another 1100 days at least will need to be added to the remaining lifespan.

While this sort of accomplishment truly will send waves through the gerontology community, a Dr. de Grey envisions, can we really foresee this happening in the next 10 years? Fifteen? Given a target age of six years or more, such an intervention would have to be developed in the next six years to make be realized in 10 years, or in the next 11 years to make a 15-year deadline (assuming we keep a good supply of mice at various ages handy, so that when we get our intervention developed, we have mice at the appropriate age ready to go). Perhaps this will be done. Perhaps not. Doubling the remaining lifespan will be a tall order; I suspect that once this is achieved in mammals, a tripling will follow only a couple years later.

At any rate, barring another statistical fluke like Charlie or Yoda, we're looking at a decade or more before the next RP is awarded, let alone one that shows a tripling of remaining lifespan.

Which brings us back to the Fly prize. We'll ignore an RP-style version of the prize, as germline genetic interventions seem the only logical way to go. The prize could be awarded literally every several months (indeed, an individual lab could win every several months), and at the least, once every year or so. After all, genes that affect lifespan are discovered and analyzed on a very regular basis already, far exceeding what we have been able to accomplish with mice. Genes identified with microarray techniques can be (and have been) tested in a matter of months, rather than several years, and at a significantly lower cost.

Look, I know that there are many who see the Fly prize as a distraction from the real work that needs to be done. But from where I'm standing, research with flies IS the real work that needs to be done. Obviously not in place of mouse research, but certainly as a core complement to it. The research is going on, but the researchers are more interested in isolating the effects of individual genes and drugs. We need to make a statement that a record-breaking fly is just as important as determining e.g. that the individual shock proteins hsp26 and hsp27 can extend life 30% when over-expressed.

Jay Fox

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Posted 12 August 2004 - 04:40 AM

Reason prevails.

(I am not meaning you Reason ;) )

#65 jaydfox

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Posted 12 August 2004 - 06:51 AM

I'm wondering where this issue rests in the community. With Prometheus, I feel like I'm preaching to the choir; actually, it's more like preaching to the choir director.

Anyway, the Methuselah Foundation has resisted, though Dave Gobel and Dr. de Grey promised more comments soon. Assuming the MF doesn't take on a fly prize, is there support here at the imminst to at least draw up a formal plan? Prometheus has offered to incorporate a non-profit entity, as well as put in seed money. I'm willing to put in an initial donation (though not nearly as large as Prometheus's), as well as a pledge, assuming the minimum annual amount would be less that the $1,000 required by the MMP.

If there is support, we would need to figure out the initial framework. I've already made suggestions on various points, as has Prometheus. But it should be a community project, not my project or Prometheus's project. Are others here willing to donate time and intellectual resources? ImmInst leaders/directors? Members (lifetime, full, or basic)?

Bruce? I'll quote Prometheus and Reason on this one:

I'd be all for a group starting up a Fly Prize and working to prove me wrong on the publicity angle.

This strikes me as an Imminst-sized project, for example. There's a guy out there who runs hobbyist-level fly experiments on life extension who posts to various transhumanist lists. If he can do it...

If Imminst can write a book and organize a documentary, it can certainly run a prize for long-lived flies...

Why not? Are you in BJ? I'll cover the costs of incorporating a non-profit entity and pledge $5,000 towards the prize.

Prometheus; Bruce is going to be fairly busy and intermittantly online until the end of TV2004. A useful and constructive thing to do would be to lay out a proposed prize structure, rules, time cost of setup (build a website, corrall people, etc, etc) and management process for a Fly Prize so that the leadership here - since this is a board-run organization - can see how feasible it would be to put under the Imminst umbrella.


I've already proposed we follow the MMP's example, but tailor it to our needs:
*Smaller annual minimum for pledges (and shorter pledge period, for that matter).
*Define what counts as breaking the record. (A single fly? Top decile of an experimental group? Other criteria?)
*One prize category, as opposed to the two-prize structure used by the MMP.
*Rules for verifying claimed age: regular measurements of juvenile hormone, etc.; frequent open reporting; 3rd party verification; etc. Prometheus and other biologists (Dr. de Grey included) can work out the details.
*Formula for calculating the prize amount for a new record (more to come on this point).
*Website layout and content. Prometheus and others have covered improvements to the MMP website, and those improvements would well be placed in the website for a fly prize.
*Analysis of start-up costs.
*A dozen other things I haven't mentioned, or even thought of yet.

I've already discussed the idea with three of my friends, and I've gotten positive feedback from all three. They're geeks like me, and they like the incremental approach, as well as the fact that results will come more quickly. It just makes sense, you know?

One of my friends has a B.S. in biology and works at Applera (formerly Celera, actually now the Applied Biosystems research lab in Foster City, CA). He expressed quite a bit of enthusiasm, and agreed to a larger donation than the other friends... assuming, of course, that the prize is created. I may be able to convince at least this particular friend to pledge; the other two friends will be a tougher sell, but the lower barrier to entry will definitely help.

Jay Fox

#66 ag24

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Posted 12 August 2004 - 05:14 PM

[reposting here - accidentally posted on the earlier thread]
hi
very rushed right now, but just to point out that Jay seems to be overlooking the fact that
someone can start today an experiment with mice that are already (say) 3.5 years old and
thereby win the RP 18 months from now if any mouse reaches 5 years old. This is one of
the main selling-points of using aspartate racemisation to validate age: we don't need to
have seen the mouse when it was young.

#67 jaydfox

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Posted 12 August 2004 - 10:32 PM

very rushed right now, but just to point out that Jay seems to be overlooking the fact that
someone can start today an experiment with mice that are already (say) 3.5 years old and
thereby win the RP 18 months from now if any mouse reaches 5 years old.

Ummm...

Given a target age of six years or more, such an intervention would have to be developed in the next six years to make be realized in 10 years, or in the next 11 years to make a 15-year deadline (assuming we keep a good supply of mice at various ages handy, so that when we get our intervention developed, we have mice at the appropriate age ready to go).

Very rushed indeed.

Although I must admit I was more pessimistic about when an intervention that doubles remaining lifespan in extremely old mice would come along. But yes, I admit that if such an intervention were implemented today in already elderly mice, we could see results sooner. However, starting with a 3.5 year-old mouse will prove little to the gerontological community, as it should already statistically be dead: the mouse was a fluke to begin with. I was assuming interventions would start well before 1000 days (33 months), requiring at least another 1100 days of life (3 years), and a total lifespan pushing six years. Perhaps extremely late-onset interventions will have a higher relative return? (Shrug) Not my department.

Alas, such is the drawback to the arbitrary doubling of pre-intervention age; if an intervention less than doubles remaining lifespan, it's not wise to implement that intervention until as late as possible. On the other hand, interventions that triple remaining lifespan would best be started as soon as possible. I'm not saying I have a better alternative, because I don't. But we do have to accept the consequences of this strategy:

Strategies starting beyond the top decile age will not be seen as much benefit: few people would benefit, and the ones that did would be the "decrepit": the Tithonus error would prevail.

Strategies implemented shortly after reaching breeding age would also not be seen as much benefit: the young would benefit, but the baby boomers would still feel left out.

Of course, the scientific method will probably prevail, and additional mice will probably be tested at a wide range of intervention ages, without regard to winning the MMP. I'm not saying that the MMP will hinder the scientific process, only that more could be done to encourage it.

At any rate, extending a 3.5 year old mouse to 5 years would be viewed more as a testament to that mouse's genetic and phenotypic strengths (in the longevity department, anyway).

The public, on the other hand, would not be bothered by such details. So, if we today had an intervention that doubles remaining elderly lifespan, we could see results in less than two years. And from the public's standpoint, this would be a *huge* win.

Before the gerontological community is convinced, I figure the experiments will have to be started before the median lifespan, as compared to a control group (with the groups randomly selected--typical experimental methodology stuff), and the results will have to be based on top decile, thus limiting the affect of statistical flukes.

But I suppose that doesn't factor as much into the prize at the moment. It's goal is a reversal in public opinion, allowing the gerontologists to come out of the closet, so to speak, on what they privately believe is possible.

Anyway, I'm rambling, so I'll close...

Jay Fox

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Posted 12 August 2004 - 11:06 PM

In a recent press release being heralded as the first method since caloric restriction (CR) to produce verifiable and trans-species aging retardation effects, it was found that animals fed with resveratrol showed a lifespan increase by 30%. This mechanism as many of you may know operates using the same pathways as CR (when the animals were subjected to CR and resveratrol supplementation there was no additive effect). The point of note, however is that the experimental platform that was used to verify the aging retardation effects was - you guessed it - drosophila melanogaster.

Having performed this experiment in yeast, worms and flies, the natural evolution would be to do it in mice, particularly aged mice for the RP. Thanks of course to the humble fly. ;)

Researchers discover the first compounds that slow aging across species

#69 Da55id

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Posted 13 August 2004 - 01:40 AM

Hi Prometheus - Very hopeful result, and I'm glad flies et al led the way. Wish I could figure out how to corner the market on pinot noir :-)

If you weren't already aware, I think you'll be glad to know that Dr. David Sinclair has announced that he's competing for the MMP.

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Posted 13 August 2004 - 06:11 AM

Actually cornering the market on a way of delivering resveratrol into the cell intact would make you wealthier than owning the patent to viagra, if these studies are anything to go by. It looks like this pathway is very conserved and an excellent candidate for a CR mimetic. ;)

I'm glad to hear Sinclair is competing! In for the RP or PP?

#71 Da55id

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Posted 13 August 2004 - 02:32 PM

He hasn't indicated which one he's going for yet. We'll be polling all competitors prior to RP inaugural in Nov to see which they'll be going for.

#72 bradbury

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 07:14 AM

Extending the lives of short-lived species, particularly those such as insects which branched from the vertebrate tree hundreds of millions of years ago, will be of limited usefullness in extending the lives of mammals, particularly humans. Insects are composed of post-replicative cells and do not get cancer. It is unlikely that insects will shed any light on aging processes that longer lived mammals have not already invented solutions for and incorporated into their genomic programs in one form or another. Far better to study the genomes of long lived mammals which evolved independent longevity assurance programs such as elephants and whales. Fortunately elephants are on the newly released genome sequencing list by NHGRI. There are other species ranging from amphibians or reptiles which can regrow body components and plants such as sequoias that can retain functional genomes within the organism for thousands of years. These have much more to teach us than the study of insects.

The proposal of a prize for extending the lifespan of insects suggests lack of awareness of the processes involved in aging and how evolution goes about producing compensations for or solutions to these processes.

#73 FutureQ

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 08:39 AM

Jaydfox said:

mainly out of concern that it would draw donations away from the Reversal Prize (I wouldn't care if it drew donations away from the Postponement Prize, though that prize is already seriously underfunded in comparison to the RP).


Let me guess, you are very or relatively young, yes? Perhaps you think there's plenty of time for you and that you won't need Postponement because Reversal of aging will surely come along before you are old enough to be in danger of losing your life to advanced age and subsequent aging disease.

I think this is the attitude of many that give only to the Reversal Prize and none for Postponement. I see this and think how sad it would be for these people to not be able to significantly slow their aging enough to be there when Reversal does become available. How sadly ironic that would be to miss Reversal by a day or a week or even a decade, you agree, no?

More people need to wake up and stop hanging on faith so much, faith that someone else will do it for us, faith that science alone without us is an unstoppable juggernaut and even capable of fending off unfriendly fanatics and political puppets so go ahead vote for that tax cut guy despite the fact he's against everything that really matters to one's continued *physical survival*, faith that the Singularity will *Rapture* us *all* away from this Hell on Earth anytime now or surely in my lifetime. Don't bet on any of this.

I give equally to both prizes because it is in my own self interest and also that of yours, despite yourself.

I voted NO because if we let flies in, like one fellow said "why not other animals?", so why not Nematodes, heck they've already been boosted an unheard of amount, yes? Well, except that worms, especially the gardener's arch enemy the Nematode, is not an attractive little beastie that people will feel cuddly towards regardless of what crossover might exist to share with human cuddlies, little I expect.

James

#74 jaydfox

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 09:34 AM

The proposal of a prize for extending the lifespan of insects suggests lack of awareness of the processes involved in aging and how evolution goes about producing compensations for or solutions to these processes.

Prometheus will have a field day with that statement...

Before Prometheus gets here, I'll throw in my two cents on the rest of your post

Insects are composed of post-replicative cells and do not get cancer.


I said the same thing, and Dr. de Grey seemed to back this statement up to some extent a few days ago, though I don't remember exactly what he said.

Unfortunately, recent research has indicated that although aging may look superficially the same in varied species, the exact mechanisms that the gene profiles are designed to attack can be different. An obvious example is that flies and yeast don't get cancer.
...
Aging is very complex. We understand it very little. Yet there is much evidence that aging is more than just evolution's disregard for organisms once they have reproduced. There is strong evidence that multiple aspects of aging are tied to preventing cancer.

However, I'm wondering if there are species we can use with shorter lifespans than mice, but that still get cancer. It is my opinion (based loosely on studies I've read) that cancer is intertwined with aging in humans. Extending the lifespan of a species that doesn't get cancer won't convince me.


This hasn't bothered me as much in recent weeks. While insects and chordates diverged a very long time ago, there are still several mechanisms that are preserved. That resveratrol can have the same impact on yeast, worms, and flies, and anecdotally in humans, implies that such a mechanism evolved before the eukaryots split--before the animal kingdom existed, and certainly before insects diverged from chordates.

Other mechanisms will have evolved after the split from insects, to deal with the likes of cancer.

But we must ask ourselves why we age. Is it a mechanism to prevent and fight cancer, as some evidence suggests? Why, when flies and yeast don't get cancer, do they age? And why are many of the same age-related problems seen: DNA, RNA, and protein damage, etc.? Why are these problems relevant on the timescales of these organism's lifetimes, when in the same block of time the amount of damage accumulated in us is practically negligible?

While certain aspects of aging seem tied to our cells' inability to fix DNA damage as fast as it occurs, why is it that a fruit fly doesn't have the repair capabilities that a human has? Why couldn't a fruit fly live as long as a human? Or at least as long as a mouse? Why couldn't a mouse live as long as a human? Why can't a human live as long as, well, Methuselah? At the structural level, there are differences, but at the cellular level, it's still the same stuff: proteins, DNA, RNA, lysosomes, and mitochondria, all dancing their chemical dance.

Creating a fly that lives a year will NOT be irrelevant at all. It shows that it is possible to remove what evolution most probably designed into us--a species-appropriate time-bomb--whether we want to accept that or not. And the techniques will probably be well enough preserved, since aging itself seems to predate the split of eukaryots.

Far better to study the genomes of long lived mammals which evolved independent longevity assurance programs such as elephants and whales.

Once we know which genes and specific *mechanisms* to target (I'm talking more than the broad mechanisms such as DNA repair, antioxidant production, or growth hormone/receptor interplay), we could use the relevant genes from the long-lived species to get an idea of what genes to transfect humans with, or at least how to modify our own genes. But we don't even know which mechanisms are the culprits! We have a few prime suspects, but none of it is definitive. It's one thing to know that mitochondrial ROS production can cause DNA damage, and that DNA damage is "bad", but it's quite another thing to actually have definitive proof that mtROS production *causes* senescence. Proof is beginning to emerge in recent and on-going studies, but like I said, just theorizing a connection didn't make it correct. There is bound to be more than just this one mechanism at work, since many anti-oxidants don't affect mtROS, and yet they have positive health benefits (squaring the survival curve if not lengthening it).

Experimenting on long-lived species is pointless. It will take forever. It's how the experiments are run: once gene at a time. "Let's see what happens when we damage this gene; when we deactivate it (one or both copies); when we down-regulate it; when we up-regulate it. Great, that gene's done, let's try this one. Let's catalog this indivudal gene's effects on this protein level, and that protein level, and this chemical process, and that chemical process. Now let's try it all over again, in this species, and see how it's different, and how it's the same. Okay, now in this species."

Microarrays help, because they limit the number of genes we have to check (since we certainly don't have time to test tens of thousands per species). But it's still an in vitro process. Verifying a gene in vivo is still done one gene at a time.

It's all in the pursuit of pure science. And one day, many decades from now (actually, it would take centuries if not millenia at the current rate, but I'm taking into account the increasing technology over the next few decades), we'll understand enough about how long-lived species get done what the shorter-lived species cannot, to start tinkering with aging in humans.

There are other species ranging from amphibians or reptiles which can regrow body components and plants such as sequoias that can retain functional genomes within the organism for thousands of years. These have much more to teach us than the study of insects.

If I only cared about curing aging by the end of the century, or at the earliest by the middle of it, then yes, I agree with that statement. I'm only 26, so I've got the time.

With short-lived species, on the other hand, we can test not only the chemical interactions (and then theorize about the effects on lifespan), but we can also test the actual lifespan. And we can test multiple genes at once and not worry about not understanding in painstaking detail the exact mechanisms at work (where such painstaking detail would otherwise be required to theorize the effects on a lifespan we cannot test). With two or three more experiments, we can refine our multi-gene approach, and get better results. Now we've got our result (which is still far from perfect, but far exceeds the current results), and we've shown the world that it was possible. And we identified candidate mechanisms (and in many cases, candidate genes), that the mouse researchers, who are still on their first batch of mice (and hence many generations behind), can try in the second batch.


Besides, even if using long-lived species is the way to go, we could not possibly hope to sponsor a prize or other such foundation/society to promote the research of the wide variety of long-lived species. Such is well beyond the realm of the Immortality Institute or the Methuselah Foundation. Such is the responsibility of the greater gerontology/biology community itself; this is more a matter of a public relations battle, *political* battles, with insiders hopefully being able to help by orchestrating such changes in the general research policies. If you're in a position to make policy decisions like this, or to influence said decisions, then by all means, do it.

But the gerontology community isn't budging. That's the very reason that Dr. de Grey and Dave Gobel co-founded the Methuselah Foundation and created the Methuselah Mouse Prize: Because we can affect PR, not only through spreading information (which the MF website does, as does Dr. de Grey's website), but also by spurring research. Focused research. One species. One goal (with two subgoals). Relatively short timeframe. Simple rules. Winner-takes-all publicity, though the prize money is aportioned based on how well you achieved the goal, relative to the previous winner.

We want to put the gerontology community in a position where they can come out and say, "Yes, we know we can slow aging drastically, and perhaps even reverse it, and we can do it in a couple decades." Those in the gerontology community who don't believe this will increasingly be put on the spot in the face of mounting evidence that species after species is having its maximum lifespan dramatically extended, by factors of 2 and 3 and more for even closely related species such as mice.

The Methuselah Mouse Prize seeks to bring that day sooner, perhaps decades sooner. But that day is still years away, and possibly even a decade away or more. A fly prize can bring that day years sooner still. Even if we have doubts about whether flies will be relevant, it will cost pennies on the dollar to get substantially better life extensions. And genes and specific mechanisms WILL BE found that will apply in at least some (and more probably in most) cases to mice, which will accelerate progress in the Methuselah Mouse Prize, and bring years sooner the day that gerontologists will no longer be able to say that curing aging is not possible.

But going back to your contention of using long-lived species: even if studying long-lived species will ultimately yield the best results, the easiest way for you and me to make that *huge* project a reality is to force the gerontologists into it, and creating a public outcry for faster research into aging is probably the easiest way make that happen. Despite the public's pessimism, I can't help but think that seeing an 8-year-old non-dwarf, non-CR'd mouse will create just such an outcry. A six-year-old mouse might even do the trick.

And if a 9-month-old fly, or a 13-month-old fly, is what it takes to get an 8-year-old mouse, which is what it takes to create the clichéd Apollo-Moon-Project-equivalent for curing aging, then I'm all in.

Jay Fox

#75 jaydfox

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:14 AM

Let me guess, you are very or relatively young, yes? Perhaps you think there's plenty of time for you and that you won't need Postponement because Reversal of aging will surely come along before you are old enough to be in danger of losing your life to advanced age and subsequent aging disease.

I think this is the attitude of many that give only to the Reversal Prize and none for Postponement. I see this and think how sad it would be for these people to not be able to significantly slow their aging enough to be there when Reversal does become available. How sadly ironic that would be to miss Reversal by a day or a week or even a decade, you agree, no?

Good point. Except that you've got it backwards. The somewhat inappropriately named Postponement Prize is for any form of intervention in the aging process, including genetic changes made before the embryo began to develop. Competitors for this prize would NOT develop techniques that could be used to help the elderly. This category is the easiest to compete in (by current technological standards), and hence will yield faster results, even though those results will need to be refined over time. The young will in theory benefit more from this prize. The Postponement Prize is the one that the young would "selfishly" put their money into.

The inappropriately named Reversal Prize only allows interventions into the aging process to be begun after birth, and preferably well into middle-age. Such a prize DOES develop techniques that, with appropriate tweaking, could be used to help the elderly. This category includes genetic therapies initiated during adulthood, which are technologically much more difficult than what's allowed with the Postponement category. The Reversal Prize is the one that older generations would "selfishly" put their money into.

Thus, my lack of concern for the Postponement Prize indicates not an act of selfishness on my part, but of concern for the elderly and middle-aged. Aging will be cured long before I'm old and decrepit, so it's not about me. I happen to know a few people in their 50's. I call 'em Mom and Dad. I know a few people in their 70's. I call 'em Grandma and Grandpa. If my concern for them makes me selfish, then you got me!

By the way, another reason I expressed a lack of concern about whether the fly prize would pull funds away from the postponement prize, is because the fly prize can help accomplish many of the advantages of the postponement prize. The Postponement Prize, being easier to compete in than the Reversal Prize, allows us to narrow down which genes to go through the greater effort of testing in the Reversal Prize category. The Fly prize hopefully will accomplish this same goal, and faster.

...like one fellow said "why not other animals?", so why not Nematodes, heck they've already been boosted an unheard of amount, yes?

Why not indeed? Well, I'll tell you why not. There's a point of diminishing returns.

The timescale difference between the lifespans of fruit flies and of mice is sufficiently large, relative to each other and relative to the time it would take to even design the experiments and do the initial germline genetic manipulations and breeding, that we come out ahead (by my reckoning, anyway :)).

With worms, the timescale difference between worms and flies is relatively small; the timescale difference in designing the experiments, doing the initial germline genetic manipulations, and breeding (to whatever extent you breed worms) to create a sufficiently large test group, is even smaller. Diminished returns.

Also, we're pushing it with going from flies to mice in terms of genetic relevance. Remember, the fly prize is not to be a prize unto itself, but a means of creating excellent candidate genes and mechanisms to try in the mice. A worm will produce poorer results in going directly from worms to mice: diminished returns.

We could do the reseach in worms, and then translate the results into the flies (in the hopes of speeding up the fly research). However, for the amount of time it would take to set up both prize organizations, and fund them, and then design, set up, and run the experiments (which won't actually take all that much less time in the worms), you don't come out much ahead, if at all. The worm prize won't really generate that much in the way of useable results to feed into the fly prize competition. Diminished returns.

Picking an additional species with a longer lifespan than flies (my favorite being Dr. de Grey's "Nothobranchius furzeri", a fish that lives 12 weeks) could be used to feed results from flies to e.g. fish, then fish to mice. Of course, from an evolutionary standpoint, even though fish and mice are not that far removed, flies and mice are just about as far removed from each other as flies and fish. Thus, feeding results from flies into fish would be as genetically relevant as just skipping straight to the mice. As before, feeding the results from one prize/species into the next gets diminished returns.

So while we can in jest throw out this objection that creating one new prize will lead to a plethora of new prizes, it's not a logically sound objection.

Jay Fox

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:22 PM

Extending the lives of short-lived species, particularly those such as insects which branched from the vertebrate tree hundreds of millions of years ago, will be of limited usefullness in extending the lives of mammals, particularly humans.  Insects are composed of post-replicative cells and do not get cancer.  It is unlikely that insects will shed any light on aging processes that longer lived mammals have not already invented solutions for and incorporated into their genomic programs in one form or another.  Far better to study the genomes of long lived mammals which evolved independent longevity assurance programs such as elephants and whales.  Fortunately elephants are on the newly released genome sequencing list by NHGRI.  There are other species ranging from amphibians or reptiles which can regrow body components and plants such as sequoias that can retain functional genomes within the organism for thousands of years.  These have much more to teach us than the study of insects.

The proposal of a prize for extending the lifespan of insects suggests lack of awareness of the processes involved in aging and how evolution goes about producing compensations for or solutions to these processes.


Bradbury, if you're suggesting that drosophila are of no use in studying cancer the following article may be of help:

FEBS Lett. 2004 Jun 1;567(1):86-91.

Of flies and men; p53, a tumour suppressor.

Sutcliffe JE, Brehm A.

Lehrstuhl fur Molekularbiologie, Adolf-Butenandt-Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat, Schillerstrasse 44, 80336 Munich, Germany.

The completion of the Drosophila genome sequencing project [Science 287 (2000) 2185] has reconfirmed the fruit fly as a model organism to study human disease. Comparison studies have shown that two thirds of genes implicated in human cancers have counterparts in the fly [Curr. Opin. Genet. Dev. 11 (2001) 274; J. Cell Biol. 150 (2000) F23], including the tumour suppressor, p53. The suitability of the fruit fly to study the function of the tumour suppressor p53 is further exemplified by the lack of p53 family members within the fly genome, i.e., no homologues to p63 and p73 have been identified. Hence, there is no redundancy between family members greatly facilitating the analysis of p53 function. In addition, studying p53 in Drosophila provides an opportunity to learn about the evolution of tumour suppressors. Here, we will discuss what is known about Drosophila p53 in relation to human p53.


There is of course a plethora of articles on aging using drosophila - just head towards pubmed and plug in 'drosophila' and 'aging' or 'ageing'. You will find over 2000 citations.

Drosophila is not an example of a long-lived animal. That is not the reason it is so popular with aging researchers. Its is simply a quick and cost -effective way to test ideas.

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:42 PM

The proposal of a prize for extending the lifespan of insects suggests lack of awareness of the processes involved in aging and how evolution goes about producing compensations for or solutions to these processes.


That is a profound statement, Bradbury. Indeed my awareness must be lacking as I am convinced that using flies as a discovery tool to aid in the understanding of aging is the most rapid and cost-effective way. Of course it is irrelevant that it is the most popular platform to study aging on (something the Methuselah Foundation keep on ignoring). But I suppose I could take comfort that my misfortune and lack of foresight is shared by countless other researchers in the field. Why should they bother with insects like fruit flies when they can research - wait for it - ELEPHANTS! I'll just call my local supplier and order a dozen of those. What? He does not stock them? No problems - we can relocate the lab to South Africa. What? They live almost as long as humans? No problems - I'll bring my 10 year daughter along - her grandchildren can publish the results.

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Posted 15 August 2004 - 12:29 AM

I'll share something quaint from my undergraduate years when I would look at the fly as an experimental organism with contempt.

One summer afternoon in a vacant lecture theatre I was in the process of explaining my theories to a gorgeous blonde newcomer:

"Why on earth would any researcher worth his salt be doing human studies on flies? Absurd! Mogenroth is off his rocker! Primates, now that is the ideal model organism!" I said to her as she looked at me with those massive green eyes.

Dr Mogenroth who happened to be walking outside the corridor at the time overheard me and then I heard the gruff voice, "Wrong choice." I looked at him first annoyed at being interrupted and then adrenalin firing when I realized who it was.

"Deanne", he said to my prospective date, "if Harold were to run the experiment like that it would take him 50 years to complete and cost more than the Trump tower to finance". I groaned.

He asked me. "Why choose a chimp? why not a fly?".

I stuck my jaw out and heroically proclaimed, "Because of the gene homology between the two species - and because we can go straight to human studies next".

He smirked like a cheshire cat and said, "Supposing you're wrong, Harold". Double groan.

Like an imbecile I said, "I'm not wrong, I've done all the background research - I know what needs to be done."

I think he did not want me to look like a complete fool so he said, "Ok, but what if you needed to refine your experimental technique then - you may, theoretically be correct - but supposing your technique needs honing and you need to try multiple approaches to the target".

My testosterone those days occluded my thinking so before thinking my way out, I said, "What do you mean?"

He, smiled to my prospective date, and said, "Wouldn't it be better if you tested the paradigm on an experimental platform that enabled you to determine the results of your genetic interventions in days instead of years, so that once you got the method right you could move to primates with confidence?".

He then proceeded to show me with the aid of flowcharts and graphs the benefits of using an organism with a shorter lifespan and considerably lower laboratory overhead costs. He was absolutely right of course. And it was the one (only one thankfully) of the topics of discussion with my date later on that evening.

Edited by prometheus, 15 August 2004 - 07:41 AM.


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Posted 16 August 2004 - 12:19 AM

The specific advantages of using drosophila over mice are:

1. in the lifespan which is measured in weeks versus years and

2. in the low cost of maintaining enormous numbers for running multiple studies in parallel.

In the context for discovering new ways of modulating gene function for retarding the aging rate drosophila is ideal because a single lab can try multiple permutations of a particular approach for substantially lower cost.

Once something looks promising it can be moved up the homology ladder from fly to mouse.

For the biggest possible research scope in terms of maximizing the number of strategies whilst keeping costs low and discovery cycle rapid, drosophila remains as the first organism of choice for scientists - why should it not be for the the Methuselah Foundation?

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#80 Da55id

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 03:33 AM

Hi Prometheus - You said "Indeed my awareness must be lacking as I am convinced that using flies as a discovery tool to aid in the understanding of aging is the most rapid and cost-effective way. Of course it is irrelevant that it is the most popular platform to study aging on (something the Methuselah Foundation keep on ignoring).

I love it when you're wrong :-)

#81 Da55id

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 03:34 AM

Hi Prometheus - You said "Indeed my awareness must be lacking as I am convinced that using flies as a discovery tool to aid in the understanding of aging is the most rapid and cost-effective way. Of course it is irrelevant that it is the most popular platform to study aging on (something the Methuselah Foundation keep on ignoring)."

I love it when you're wrong :-)

#82 Da55id

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 03:34 AM

In fact I love it so much I double posted. (sorry)

#83 Da55id

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 03:39 AM

Is it possible to develop an experiment where flies would live 2 1/2 years - within the next 5 years?

dg

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 04:03 AM

To further illustrate how dramatically the rate of research could be accelerated by using the fly as the primary tool for intervention discovery:

Assume that the research consists of 3 components to go from discovery to human therapeutic:

1. Determine type of intervention e.g. identify the specific gene(s) associated with retarding aging process
2. Determine method of intervention e.g. how do you deliver the changes to an adult organism
3. Determine efficacy and safety in humans e.g. do the same as in (2) in humans with safety as primary consideration

If you consider the PP-type system you have to wait 6 years for each study cycle to be completed and the delivery method still has not been identified. If you get wrong you have to start all over again.

By using the fly model to screen for thousands of possible mechanisms, an enormous amount of time can be saved - the study cycle for the type of intervention is reduced from 6 years to 8 months and the results can the be plugged directly into the mouse model for testing in mammalian systems for best delivery method.

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#85 jaydfox

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 05:15 AM

Hi Prometheus - You said "Indeed my awareness must be lacking as I am convinced that using flies as a discovery tool to aid in the understanding of aging is the most rapid and cost-effective way. Of course it is irrelevant that it is the most popular platform to study aging on (something the Methuselah Foundation keep on ignoring)."

I love it when you're wrong :-)

Uhh, care to clarify? He made several statements, any one of which you might think or know is wrong. Which?

1) "Indeed my awareness must be lacking..."

2) "...using flies as a discovery tool to aid in the understanding of aging is the most rapid and cost-effective way".
2a) "...using flies as a discovery tool to aid in the understanding of aging is the most rapid way".
2b) "...using flies as a discovery tool to aid in the understanding of aging is the most cost-effective way".

3) "...it is [relevant] that it is the most popular platform to study aging on" (since the statement of irrelevancy was sarcasm, I assume)
3a) "...it is the most popular platform to study aging on"

4) (something the Methuselah Foundation keep on ignoring)

If you disagree with 2, 2a only, 2b only, or 3a, could you please confirm and then elaborate?

If you disagree with statement 2, I would really like to know why it would be irrelevant.

If you disagree with statement 1, then I am very confused... You're glad that Prometheus's awareness is not lacking, yet you disagree with the fly prize...

If you disagree with statement 3, then I would be glad that you think Prometheus is wrong, as I would assume that means that you are at least giving the fly prize serious consideration. If you're not ignoring the fact that it is the most popular platform to study aging on, then would you be able to elaborate? Or is this one of the things that Reason said you guys are working on and are not ready to annouce yet? Although I assume that if it's something you're not ready to announce, then you couldn't tell me, right?

Jay Fox

#86 jaydfox

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 06:27 AM

Is it possible to develop an experiment where flies would live 2 1/2 years - within the next 5 years?

dg

Well, Prometheus will have to answer this one, as this is outside my area of expertise.

However, I can provide this:
A 2½-year-old fly would be roughly the equivalent of a 30- to 35-year-old mouse, if we assume that a directly proportional relative increase in age represents the same amount/type of genetic modification. Given that fly age was doubled with the "Indy" gene, and no such increase has been observed in mice with any known technique to date, I'll admit that the relative increases in age that are possible with a given amount and type of genetic modification are *not* proportional.

However, the absolute gains are not directly proportional either. A 120-day extension in the life span of a mouse is far easier to accomplish than a 120-day increase in the lifespan of a fly, given the same level of genetic modification. If you don't believe me, then where are the 180-day-old flies? There are plenty of genetically modified mice living multiples of 120 days longer than unaltered mice.

So I'm not going to go as far as stating that your question is completely bogus. But I would go as far as saying that a 2½-year-old fly would be worth more scientifically than an 8-year-old mouse, hands down. Dr. de Grey probably wouldn't even argue with that (I say probably, because he seems very convinced of the idea that absolute gains from CR are the same across species, and I don't know what other age-realted mechanisms he extends this belief to). Better than a 10-year-old mouse? Doubt begins to trickle into my mind, I'll admit. Better than a 12-year-old mouse? I'm guessing that's probably close to the break-even point, but I'm not a gerontologist, so don't take my word for it. I certainly feel the 10-12 year range for a mouse is probably a good match for a 2½-year-old fly

But, I'll stay conservative: eight years. However, even if a 2½-year-old fly is scientifically just as impressive and relevant as an 8-year-old mouse, would we see an 8-year-old mouse in the next five years? Let's see, the mouse would have to be three or more years old today. So we're definitely talking RP, unless it's one of the genetically modified mice currently in the research pipe. Since I haven't seen anything public that is on track for that degree of life extension, I would assume that it would be something deep underground, probably for fear of losing a possible patent or two.

So if we're talking RP, and it's started on a 3-year-old mouse (or older), which has already exceeded its statistical lifespan (i.e., it has passed the top decile age, and certainly the mean age), then it is either genetically modified (and thus ineligible for the RP anyway), or it is a statistical fluke. Either way, it's nearing the end of its physiological lifespan, at which point we're going to begin an intervention that extends its remaining lifespan (of about a year or less) to five years! If there's something available already that could achieve this, then the Methuselah Mouse Prize is pretty pointless, as this mystery intervention will be ready for human trials at the end of the five year time span we're discussing. If you're aware of something that exists today that will extend life this much, then please, stop holding back and tell us what it is. Unless, of course, you have a stake in it?

However, perhaps I misinterpreted your question. Perhaps you didn't mean that we'll have a 2½-year-old fly, merely that such a fly would be born in the next five years. I could imagine the first 8-year-old mouse being born in the next five years as well, so that would be a fair comparison...

Except that, when will we have the results? For the fly, it would be 7.5 years from now. For the mouse, 13 years.

Do you see where I'm going? I originally stated that I wouldn't go as far as saying that your question is bogus, but now I will: your question is bogus.

Jay Fox

#87 jaydfox

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 06:41 AM

Is it possible to develop an experiment where flies would live 2 1/2 years - within the next 5 years?

dg

Just for fun, I guess at this point I should at least state where I think things will go (this is my somewhat-educated opinion, not one backed by an advanced degree in gerontology or genetics.): While I don't foresee a 2½-year-old fly dying (as opposed to being born) in the next 5 years, I do see us getting a lot closer to it than we will be to an 8-year-old mouse in the next 5 years. Perhaps we'll only make it to 1½ years (roughly quadrupling the current record, by the way, and beating the average lifespan by a factor of about nine). Perhaps we'll only make it to 1 year. I'd settle for roughly tripling the current record, and beating the average lifespan by a factor of six.

I suspect, however, that if a fly prize were started this year, and were funded even half as well as the Mouse Postponement Prize seems to be getting funded, we could see a 1-year-old fly in 3 to 6 years (10 at the outside), and a 1½-year-old fly in 4 to 8 years (15 at the outside). Note that my conservative, worst-case time frames are as good or better than considerably optimistic time frames for similar advances in mouse lifespan.

A 1-year-old fly and 1½-year-old fly would probably be as scientifically relevant as a 6½- to 8-year-old mouse and a 7- to 10-year old mouse, respectively. We might see similar gains in mice in these timeframes, or we might not. But even if we did, we would have tested far fewer genes, and far fewer permutations of alterations to those genes, than we could have with the flies. Which means that, regardless of the fact that we'd be at the same place in terms of known genetic modifications that were effective in mice, we would have far less overall knowledge about the genetics of aging.

Which means we'd be in a worse position in terms of whatever the next step is...

Jay Fox

#88 jaydfox

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 06:52 AM

Continuing in this line of reasoning about using mice versus flies, do you know what the best part is?

The fly prize doesn't have to replace the mouse prize!
It's not an either-or situation!
We can have both prizes!

And since the fly prize wouldn't need a $5 million to $10 million dollar pot to affect research decisions, but more likely something on the order of $500,000 to $1 million, we're looking at one tenth the funding requirements. Which means that, at the very worst, it draws 10% of the funds away from the mouse prize that might otherwise have been donated. (I seriously doubt it would draw even 5% away, but would actually results in more total funds being donated between the three prizes [one fly, two mouse] than the current two prizes. Actually, I should stipulate that at the very worst, it would draw away all the Mouse Prize's future funds, which would lead to a fly prize so overfunded as to have no other conceivable result but to spur a huge amount of research, the results of which would spill into the mouse research community, despite the lack of funding to the Mouse prize, and produce better results than the Mouse Prize could with the same level of funding... But, I don't seriously consider this possible given all the hesitation to support a fly prize that has been expressed here of late, and it's not what I want to happen, anyway.)

So let's go with this worst case scenario: a 10% reduction in the Mouse Prize fund. What's the impact? As far as I can tell, it would only minimally impact any research decisions made in mouse research, while allowing us to promote the same level or greater of relevant anti-aging research in flies (with all the associated benefits which have been discussed at length and have not been scientifically refuted yet)! From where I'm standing, it's a win-win situation!! And that's the worst-case scenario. More probably, it will have only a negligible impact on MMP funding, and no impact on decisions made amount the future direction of mouse research.

Which brings me back to the question I've been wondering. Why are people so hostile towards the concept of the fly prize? Is it that they feel the Mouse Prize is being threatened? If so, please let me know why, because I have no intention of threatening the mouse prize. I want to see both successful. In fact, my desire for the fly prize is to make the MMP more successful! I myself just donated yesterday, a sizeable amount in fact given that I'm not steadily employed, despite the fact that for the last two weeks I have been promoting the idea of a fly prize. I have literally put my money where my mouth is.

I have two friends who have similarly promised to donate in the next few days or weeks. I have other friends I'm working on. Believe me, I'm out there, promoting the prize. Please do not view me as a threat, no matter how much I might seem to be.

Jay Fox

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 08:37 AM

To formalize Jay's previous post:

If we assuming an equivalence between the three species such that:

average lifespan = human(85 yrs) = mouse(2.5 yrs) = fly(0.2)

and the fly was made to live for 2.5 yrs, then by transforming lifespan across the other species,

average lifespan = 12.5 x {human(85 yrs) = mouse(2.5 yrs) = fly(0.2 yrs)}

> average lifespan = human(1062.5 yrs) = mouse(31.25 yrs) = fly(2.5 yrs)

This would be an astonishing result demonstrating a human equivalence lifespan of a millennium.
On the other hand a more humble result of 6 years in the mouse:

average lifespan = 2.4 x {human(85 yrs) = mouse(2.5 yrs) = fly(0.2 yrs)}

> average lifespan = human(204 yrs) = mouse(6 yrs) = fly(0.5 yrs)

The Methuselah Foundation should not need such a lofty goal as 2.5 years of fly lifespan extension. 0.5 years is a very worthy goal which would provide a human equivalence lifespan of 200 years.

#90 Da55id

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 03:19 PM

Thanks for the your info on 2 1/2 year old fly possibilities. Very interesting. For every football game, there are 10 yard line intermediate goals (i.e. 1/2 year, 1 year, 1 1/2 years etc), and then there is a "goal line" where the football gets spiked (2 1/2 years?). I did the fly/human lifespan correlation in advance to formulate my question about 2 1/2 years...to see if a potentially powerful/wonderful PR "spike the football" goal was within the realm of possibility...a TRUE Methuselah Fly (969 years equivalent human years). THAT would really be something. (I'm NOT minimizing the value of intermediate results)

dg




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