11 replies to this topic

[Vons]

[EDIT] I just realized that this is potentially very old news. Apologies.

I am unsure if any of you have heard of this, but Viola. Gliese is the name.

For the first time ever, scientists have found an Earth-like planet which, they believe, is habitable for life. Announced Wednesday by scientists, the planet is called Gliese 581G and is relatively close to the Earth—just 20 light years away from our solar system. Its size and distance from the sun is comparable to Earth’s, which has led scientists to believe that the conditions on the planet would mean there is water in liquid form and has a gravitational pull to hold an atmosphere around it. The Gliese 581 system also exhibits similar characteristics to our solar system. “This is our first Goldilocks planet—just the right size and the right distance from its sun,” said Paul Butler, an astronomer at the Carnegie Institution of Washington to the Washington Post.

Source

Edited by Vons, 13 October 2010 - 07:04 AM.

[maxwatt]

The report in Nature said 2 to 3 times earth's size, and temperature 225 degrees, more if it has an atmosphere. But there will be more,

[e Volution]

Discovery Of Habitable Earth-Like Planet 'To Be Announced In May 2011'

The first Earth-like planet orbiting another star will be announced in May next year, if the discovery of extrasolar planets continues at its present rate, say researchers.



The rate of scientific progress is often hard to measure. But in certain circumstances, the data is unambiguous and easy to measure, creating a trend. And when that happens, the futurologists aren't far behind, extrapolating and predicting the way things will be.

The most famous example is Moore's Law, which predicts that the density of transistors on integrated circuits doubles every two years or so. This trend has continued for more 40 years and looks set fair for at least another 10.

Today, we're introduced to another data set that makes possible a bold prediction about the future. Samuel Arbesman from Harvard Medical School in Boston and Gregory Laughlin at the University of California, Santa Cruz, point out that astronomers have been discovering extrasolar planets at an increasing rate since 1995.

The discoveries follow a well understood pattern, the first extrasolar planets being necessarily massive, many times the size of Jupiter, and so easier to spot. As techniques have improved, however, astronomers have found smaller planets, some just a few times more massive than Earth.

There's an additional factor to take into account for a planet to be habitable--the surface temperature which must support liquid water for life as we know it to take hold. And that, of course, depends on the size of the star, the planet's distance from it and the conditions on the surface, such as the amount of greenhouse effect.

Astronomers have found superhot gas giants and snowball-like Neptunes. And here too, the trend is toward the discovery of a planet in the habitable zone. (Some would argue that Gliese 581 d falls into this category although it is not Earth-like in size).

There's no real dispute among astronomers that the discovery of an Earth-like planet is on the cards. The only question is who's going to find it and when.

Now Arbesman and Laughlin have taken this data and projected it forward to see when an Earth-like planet is likely to crop up. The results have a heavy-tailed distribution in which there is a 66 per cent probability of finding the other Earth by 2013, a 75 percent probability by 2020 but a 95 percent probability by 2264.

However, they say the median date of discovery is in early May 2011, which for various reasons is the date they emphasis in their paper.

That's a brave call. The biggest player in this business is the team behind the Kepler space telescope which was launched in March last year specifically to find extrasolar planets. The team released its first data in June and this is currently being analysed. The first set of candidate planets are due to be announced in February next year.

Many astronomers expect this set to include a habitable Earth-like planet. But according to Arbesman and Laughlin, they'll have to wait a little longer. "Because of the limited time base line of the mission to date, the Kepler planet candidates to published in February 2011 may be too hot to support significant values for H [their habitability metric]," they say.

Which means that somebody else is line to take this prize. That's not so far-fetched. Various new techniques have made Earth-bound telescopes almost as sensitive as Kepler and certainly on the verge of finding Earth 2.0.

The importance of such a discovery is hard to under-estimate. The idea of Earth 2.0 orbiting another star could have a major impact on the global psyche and provide the focus for an international effort to characterise this place. We're going to want to know more. Whoever makes this announcement is likely to become a well known face on the global stage.

And all this to happen in early May 2011, at least according to Arbesman and Laughlin. Put the date in your diaries.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1009.2212: A Scientometric Prediction of the Discovery of the First Potentially Habitable Planet with a Mass Similar to Earth

[ChromodynamicGirl]

"...just 20 light years away from our solar system."

So, given plausible acceleration then deceleration starting at the halfway point it should only take a few hundred years to get there.
You know, there is plenty of space on Earth, not to mention the solar system. By the time hu-mans have the capital and anything remotely resembling the need to get that far I seriously doubt that the normal restraints on mushy-bio-organisms are going to apply. This is akin to discovering the core of the sun is made of gold or something.

[Vons]

"...just 20 light years away from our solar system."

So, given plausible acceleration then deceleration starting at the halfway point it should only take a few hundred years to get there.
You know, there is plenty of space on Earth, not to mention the solar system. By the time hu-mans have the capital and anything remotely resembling the need to get that far I seriously doubt that the normal restraints on mushy-bio-organisms are going to apply. This is akin to discovering the core of the sun is made of gold or something.

Yeah, I hardly think 'space' is a problem. In all probability, the world population will drop within the next half century. Unless the humanists start spontaneously reproducing like rabbits, the earth will be with us for a long time.

[ChromodynamicGirl]

In all probability, the world population will drop within the next half century

That's not even remotely necessary. Everyone and his family could have an acre in Texas as it is.

[maxwatt]

In all probability, the world population will drop within the next half century

That's not even remotely necessary. Everyone and his family could have an acre in Texas as it is.

good luck dry-farming in west texas.

[ChromodynamicGirl]

good luck dry-farming in west texas.

First of all, how many people are farmers?
Secondly, I never said no one should utilize the rest of the planet.
Third, I never said it was practical at present.
The point, which you clearly missed, was that 'overpopulation' is a bogus fear; unless of course you have some horrible socialist/fascist government that wrecks your economy and causes people to starve. Under a market order, however, more people means more production.

[Elus]

In all probability, the world population will drop within the next half century.

The mathematics supports this statements. Notice the asymptotic curve toward 10-11billion max population as time approaches 2050.

Edited by Elus, 13 October 2010 - 04:29 PM.

[ChromodynamicGirl]

The mathematics supports this statements. Notice the asymptotic curve toward 10-11billion max population as time approaches 2050.

Sounds like psychohistory to me. Given a real economic system population growth is, if not unlimited, feasible for many, many more billions than we have now.

[maxwatt]

The mathematics supports this statements. Notice the asymptotic curve toward 10-11billion max population as time approaches 2050.

Sounds like psychohistory to me. Given a real economic system population growth is, if not unlimited, feasible for many, many more billions than we have now.

UN estimates of sustainable population is about 10 billion with a reasonable standard of living: ot quite western but no one starves. At 20 billion, lots of hunger, disease, etc. Possible improvements in food production efficiency would raise the numbers, but much of current productivity is tied to oil (esp as fertilizer), which is running out. Another point is other resources; we cannot expect the magic of capitalist competition to come up with a cheap alternative every time we run out of something.

It may be good news, but projections are for equilibrium to be at abut the 10 billion mark int he next century, even including AFtica and the Arab countries, which have been slow to reduce birth rates.

More interesting from an immortalist viewpoint is what kind of economic-social system will we have. Anarcho capitalism, the darling of so many hip young raised on Rand and HEinlein, willl IMO lead to a feudal or semi-feudal society as the rich get richer and remaining 90% or more can't get giid supplements or treatments. I expect the social democracies of the west to be subverted, partly under the weight of unstainable social contracts (pensions for all?) and the onslaught of corporate pressure to neutralize the voting power of "the common man."

Better start your own successful corporation for the next century.

[Elus]

The mathematics supports this statements. Notice the asymptotic curve toward 10-11billion max population as time approaches 2050.

Sounds like psychohistory to me. Given a real economic system population growth is, if not unlimited, feasible for many, many more billions than we have now.

Adding to what Max said, you should consider the fact that birthrates are plummeting all over the planet. We may have the capacity to have a bit more than 10B people, but that doesn't mean we'll reach that capacity. Japan and several other countries are great examples of this, but it isn't limited to just them.