23 replies to this topic

[theone999]

I am 22 next month, born in 1989. Given that I live in the UK, I am expected to live another 55 years. I am 30% dead already.

Will I (with your best educated guess) be immortal, or will I die, like the billions that have died before me?

Edited by theone999, 21 February 2011 - 07:35 AM.

[vaelrenx]

I am 22 next month, born in 1989. Given that I live in the UK, I am expected to live another 55 years. I am 30% dead already.

Will I (with your best educated guess) be immortal, or will I die, like the billions that have died before me?

My guess is that you will die. If research goes well (i.e. translates from model organisms to humans) then you might live with less disease, possible for an extra 10-15 years. That being said, science tends to leap forward after lucky findings so who knows what might happen (likely not immortality).

[capsun]

With the right lifestyle, you could reach far beyond 77. You could probably hit 90-95 with lifestyle alone if you worked hard enough. So, 70 years from now. You could probably tack on another 5-10 years to that if you installed a brand new immune system (this is already possible here in 2010). 75-80 years from now? I think escape velocity is possible by then.

[Marios Kyriazis]

You will die. Nobody can be truly 'immortal' (i.e. live for all eternity, until the end of time).

You may however be able to attain an 'indefinite lifespan', meaning that your risk of mortality as you age becomes trivial. This translates to anything between 0 and 2000 years if you want to live in a biological body. You could still die from a heart attack, an accident, cancer, infection etc or similar illnesses that will affect us in the future. The risk of dying from causes other than aging will still be present. Perhaps reduced in comparison to now, but present nevertheless.

[forever freedom]

I am 22 next month, born in 1989. Given that I live in the UK, I am expected to live another 55 years. I am 30% dead already.

Will I (with your best educated guess) be immortal, or will I die, like the billions that have died before me?

Our only hope of becoming truly immortal is if a technological singularity happens in our lifetime. Otherwise, we may even manage to extend our lifespan by a good amount, but we won't even be able to reach escape velocity, most likely dying at 90-110. Only strong AIs can save our generation from the inevitable doom.

Edited by forever freedom, 21 February 2011 - 08:56 PM.

[vaelrenx]

I think all this immortal talk is counter productive. If you want to increase the chances of money and good research being directed towards prolonged, healthy lives - discuss reality, not fantasy. When you hype up the aging research field with words like immortality, you direct the public discourse towards science fiction. Science fiction is not well funded.

I am all for indefinite lifespans but highly doubt that they will come in my lifetime (I am 23). Based on current successes in this field (delayed aging in multiple model organisms, primarily through the IIS/GH pathway) therapies seem likely to be available within our lifetime. These therapies might be able to extend healthy lifespans by 10-15 years if they are successful. They very well may not work (some mouse strains don't benefit from fiddling with IIS/GH signaling).

With regards to future advances that might happen, we can't predict when they will come. Look at physics - no fundamental breakthroughs have happened in a generation, despite the pace of research. I certainly hope that new productive avenues are found with regards to aging but we can't know until they do. I myself am pursuing a research career in this field because of the promise it shows. The impact of simultaneously reducing the debilitation of all age related diseases would be hugely positive. I certainly don't look forward to the decline in function that I will likely live through.

People are much more receptive if you temper your aspirations with the challenges and foreseeable benefits. Kurzweil will definitely die and I want a tail way before I merge with the computers.

[capsun]

I think all this immortal talk is counter productive. If you want to increase the chances of money and good research being directed towards prolonged, healthy lives - discuss reality, not fantasy. When you hype up the aging research field with words like immortality, you direct the public discourse towards science fiction. Science fiction is not well funded.

It goes both ways. People need to think it can happen (which it can), but they also need to know that it won't happen if they don't do anything about it.

Based on current successes in this field (delayed aging in multiple model organisms, primarily through the IIS/GH pathway) therapies seem likely to be available within our lifetime.

There are more promising therapies than these. This pathway can already be triggered simply by calorie restriction. Thus, too much investment in this area is a waste. Bioremediation is one therapy that can be very promising if we can develop it in time. Mitochondrial and lysosomal regeneration could also add some time. You're right. If calorie restriction mimetics are the only development that happens in our lifetime, we are screwed. Given that I and others are actively researching other avenues, I really don't hope this is the case.

Edited by capsun, 21 February 2011 - 11:40 PM.

[vaelrenx]

There are more promising therapies than these. This pathway can already be triggered simply by calorie restriction. Thus, too much investment in this area is a waste. Bioremediation is one therapy that can be very promising if we can develop it in time. Mitochondrial and lysosomal regeneration could also add some time. You're right. If calorie restriction mimetics are the only development that happens in our lifetime, we are screwed. Given that I and others are actively researching other avenues, I really don't hope this is the case.

It is likely that mitochondrial and lysosomal up regulation act within the IIS/IGF pathway (I can direct you to some papers that imply this if you like). Also, research on IIS/IGF should tell us the slew of downstream effectors that extend lifespan. This is important as our assumptions about what will extend lifespan is often wrong (e.g. antioxidants uncouple CR from lifespan extension, a-beta plaques seem to be a protective measure from smaller oligomers, ect). Downstream work to up regulate the effectors above IIS/IGF limits may also be a promising approach.

Edited by vaelrenx, 22 February 2011 - 01:06 AM.

[capsun]

Yes, you are correct. But slowing aging via IGF-1 manipulation has its limits as you know. This is why SENS is taking the approach of actually cleaning up the damage that occurs during normal metabolism. No matter how much we gain from insulin signaling modulation, there is still damage (since there is still metabolism). Therefore, cleaning up the mess is even more promising than just slowing down aging/metabolism.

You're right... science fiction isn't as well funded. It's a real balancing act that I see Aubrey trying to play. First claiming that we're trying to defeat the aging process, then backpedaling and saying we're only trying to keep people healthy. Trying to win the public appeal is tough. But there is one thing to keep in mind. An organization like SENS (with the goal to defeat aging) is absolutely necessary. Otherwise, all we will ever have is pharmaceutical corporations that address very end results in metabolism. SENS is looking at cleaning up messes before they even become pathological. So yes, if we want real solutions, we can't just pretend (forever) that we're trying to cure Alzheimer's disease.

[brokenportal]

Indefinite life extension gets here in direct proportion to the speed at which the world collectively goes to get there.

The way forward is to inform the world about why, why we can, and how we can get there as soon as possible. How we can includes that we facilitate and coordinate the creation and incubation of every workable strategy that passes peer review (part 6). Then when the world knows why, and why we can, we will have the maximum percent of support and resources that we can get, which as I stated in the first line here is of the essence.

So theone999, the questions is not "will I?" the question is will you do what it takes to help make the odds that you will as good as possible? You definitely have a shot at it happening in your lifetime, with out a doubt.

[VidX]

what Brokenportal said basically.. We, these who are in the known - need to participate in every way possible.. Future is in our hands, at least to some extent.

[vaelrenx]

The problem I have with sense is the lack of a proof of principle. We don't have model organisms in which we have removed the "7 forms of damage" and extended their lifespans. Without evidence, we really don't know if it will work. I agree that it sounds good from an intuitive, rational stand point - but science is certainly not intuitive.

Also, the fact that it sounds like a difficult task means that it will be almost impossible once we actually try and do it (unexpected difficulties will arise - think about Nason's lipofuscien ablation experiments). If some effective CR mimetics come on the market, aging research would get a lot of credit and funding.

I like the idea of sense, but I doubt it will get funded as it hasn't produced a single promising result, not even in model organisms. Without a lot of funding, I don't see it going anywhere in our lifetime.

[theone999]

Indefinite life extension gets here in direct proportion to the speed at which the world collectively goes to get there.

The way forward is to inform the world about why, why we can, and how we can get there as soon as possible. How we can includes that we facilitate and coordinate the creation and incubation of every workable strategy that passes peer review (part 6). Then when the world knows why, and why we can, we will have the maximum percent of support and resources that we can get, which as I stated in the first line here is of the essence.

So theone999, the questions is not "will I?" the question is will you do what it takes to help make the odds that you will as good as possible? You definitely have a shot at it happening in your lifetime, with out a doubt.

Well for a start, I've now installed the Folding @ Home client on my new pc gaming rig I built last month.

I've not thought of immortality and death for a while, or if much at all. It's only been very recent in my adult life that someone I know quite well has died, his funeral was a couple of months ago, but for some reason, the realisation of death etc has only crept into my mind recently (My last visit on this forum was 5 years ago when I was still a teen, wanting to know more about nootropics).

[capsun]

I like the idea of sense, but I doubt it will get funded as it hasn't produced a single promising result, not even in model organisms. Without a lot of funding, I don't see it going anywhere in our lifetime.

You're right. It won't get funded with attitudes like that. The truth is, we have enough resources at this point in human history to tackle this task, but nobody's willing to fund it because they don't think it will get enough funding and will be a waste. Round and round in a circle we go. If we can't even get so-called life-extensionists to back this thing, then the project is doomed from the start. If you really want it to happen, stop saying you doubt it. It's a self-fulfilling prophesy.

[brokenportal]

I encourage people to air their skepticisms comments, questions and constructive criticism and inquiry. It prompts the best kinds of discussions. When the million plus unique visitors that we get here per year sees things discussions then it helps them to start thinking about these things.

The problem I have with sense is the lack of a proof of principle. We don't have model organisms in which we have removed the "7 forms of damage" and extended their lifespans. Without evidence, we really don't know if it will work. I agree that it sounds good from an intuitive, rational stand point - but science is certainly not intuitive.

The fact that we have already been successful in arranging the mechanisms of cells is proof of concept enough, and then beyond that there are already a variety of things that are more direct proofs of concept than that. For example there are rare lysosomal storage diseases that have already had success in labs that are similar to what sens is working to do with lipofuscin. Their book Ending Aging goes over it and a variety of others, and thats just the ones they list. Thats proof of concept enough.

Also, the fact that it sounds like a difficult task means that it will be almost impossible once we actually try and do it (unexpected difficulties will arise - think about Nason's lipofuscien ablation experiments). If some effective CR mimetics come on the market, aging research would get a lot of credit and funding.

Well, it will be hard no doubt, but we dont care about that part. Just keep digging. Join coordinated digs. Im reminded of quote I have posted here, “The great French Marshall Lyautey once asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected that the tree was slow growing and would not reach maturity for 100 years. The Marshall replied, 'In that case, there is no time to lose; plant it this afternoon!’”

I like the idea of sense, but I doubt it will get funded as it hasn't produced a single promising result, not even in model organisms. Without a lot of funding, I don't see it going anywhere in our lifetime.

It just started, and, not only that but they have had plenty of seed funding by the way of a few million+ and its still coming in.

SENS is one set of strategies. The thing is not to worry about whether one or another will make it or not. The thing is to work to get the facilitation for the creation and incubation of them all up and running with a plan to get world support for them in place so that we can get them all maximum resources. Then the odds increase that one of those sets of teams working on one of those sets of strategies is going to find the way through to indefinite life extension.

[brokenportal]

Well for a start, I've now installed the Folding @ Home client on my new pc gaming rig I built last month.

I've not thought of immortality and death for a while, or if much at all. It's only been very recent in my adult life that someone I know quite well has died, his funeral was a couple of months ago, but for some reason, the realisation of death etc has only crept into my mind recently (My last visit on this forum was 5 years ago when I was still a teen, wanting to know more about nootropics).

That is great, that means your already part of the solution. As long as your doing something then thats all you really need to do, because when everybody does something then we will be well on our way.

Its good to see more instances where having the nootropic section here might be doing what we hope, in getting these ideas to wear on more and more people.

I didnt experience a lot of death for many years. My grandpa and great grandma died when I was still a pretty distracted youth. The first big one that happened to me was around 5 years ago watching my grandpas brother lay there on a hospital bed. My grandpa left the room to talk to somebody, here I am standing in a room with one of the icons of my youth, my uncle Leonard, his face reflects traces of me, and my grandpa, and my dad, so its of course powerfully foretelling and symbolic too. He was wracking subtly in pain, he could barely, intermitantly open his eyes, his hand would just barely move in response to things. His 80 year old mid section was being eaten away by cancer, bones deteriorated, organs being eaten up. I remember thinking how the last thing he would ever see is the white tiles on the ceiling of that room. Thats what his life was right there, that was the grand finale. He may as well have been born staring at a tiled ceiling and snuffed out right there. It would have meant the same to him as he is now either way. I experienced a lot more death after that.

I was already motivated before them, but we do need to latch on to those moments and harness their power to motivate. They say that a person most often has to experience a significant emotional event before they will change their habits to incorporate something new like working with indefinite life extension, even if its important like this. People hate to leave their comfort zones, so when you see death, let it get you uncomfortable. Instead of trying to make yourself feel better, make yourself feel worse. Stare death in the face and let it shake you to your core. In fact I recommend actively trying to do it. I hope to join something like hospice or something similar for that reason. Another technique I use is to visit graveyards often, read the stones, think about the lives lost, pay them homage and get my blood boiling.

[brokenportal]

need to participate in every way possible..

and particularly in coordinated plans with mid range goals. Especially ones that are designed to meet everybody at the level they want to contribute in with scheduling that bends to fit them.

[theone999]

need to participate in every way possible..

and particularly in coordinated plans with mid range goals. Especially ones that are designed to meet everybody at the level they want to contribute in with scheduling that bends to fit them.

Just flicked through the links you posted. Well it seems like there are a lot of scientists on this forum, a lot of the technical stuff is over my head. However, I did recently major my honours in Philosophy, although trans-humanism was never taught as it's not the "traditional" philosophy areas, I think I'll peruse some articles etc and see what I think.

[Lassus]

I am 22 next month, born in 1989. Given that I live in the UK, I am expected to live another 55 years. I am 30% dead already.

Will I (with your best educated guess) be immortal, or will I die, like the billions that have died before me?

You do realize that by the time you reach the ripe age of 100 years its estimated average life expectancy will be 100 years old (or, making a more conservative estimate, probably around or just over 90 years old). And thats without any groundbreaking stuff happening, just the same paradigm we are stuck in right now, with a more developed version our medicine's current toolset.

I think its very feasible that just on account of regenerative medicine becoming mainstream people will routinely be reaching 90 years old.

And as far as life extension, anti aging, and effective treatments for todays age associated causes of death (ie: cancer, adverse cardiovascular events, diabetes and its associated health problems, etc), its not insane to estimate that in 50 years time SOME progress will be made, so that perhaps people start routinely breaking the 125 +/- 5 years limit with a combination of (in all likelihood aggresive and invasive) therapies.

We are expected to achieve (using old and clunky 20th century as a point of comparison) 400 years of scientific progress in this 21st century. And, since it truly is an exponential curve we find ourselves in as far as this goes, most of that progress will happen towards the next turn of the century.


I think its not crazy to expect to see fountain of youth therapies in the second half of this century. Hell, we are lucky enough to be built modullary (cells, tissues, organs, sistems) and for stem cells to be a key part of cellular turnover. I dont want to drift off on a tangent here, but as complicated as metabolism is, we probably have the basics figured out as far as what goes on at the top and at the bottom of the cascade effects that aging implies.
Aubreys seven causes of senescence is a nice framework to think about the extent of what we need to treat/fix.


And as far as your question goes, it comes down to a series of factors. Your genetic baggage and your lifestyle play a key role. You live in the UK, i would say that helps (as opposed to, lets say, living in Haiti). Also, probably your life expectancy will be directly proportional to the size of your wallet (hell, isnt it already?).
Also, dont forget about cryonics as a last resort.

Financing life extension research and looking both ways before crossing the street give you an extra 2.5% probablity of making it, according to my calculations :-)

[revenant]

If you are 23, time is on your side. Doing the right research and being proactive in your pursuit is important. I have no doubt there will be a direct correlation between high intelligence and extreme lifespans seen in the next century. Having a certain measure of wealth at your disposal for therapies may be helpful later on. Waiting around for medical science to save you from oblivion is not what anyone should bank on right now. As for the matter of immortality, it's the golden ring...go for it. I was born in 67 and I have high hopes.

Edited by revenant, 25 February 2011 - 04:42 AM.

[VidX]

Exactly ^^ Intelligence may play a big part, as in ability to be able to weed out the real science from quackery (I'm sure this will be an issue in a near future) and just overall ability to be "in pace" with this science, as some things may better be done earlier then later.. Anyway - that's the right state of mind (to be determined, positive) as if one is pessimistic already, pessimism breeds indifference, and that's the last thing we need here. Sorry these who think "we won't make it", but you are not supposed to be here. I've been a person of "coordinance" (sp?) a few times (of a group of people) and couldn't stand anyone who was a "loser" from the very begining. You can't win a war if you've lost it in your head already, never ever. Better die fighting till the last drop of blood, even when situation looks miserable, then to raise your hands up and say "I give up". That's not how greatest battles were won in history.

Edited by VidX, 25 February 2011 - 10:21 AM.

[theone999]

If you are 23, time is on your side. Doing the right research and being proactive in your pursuit is important. I have no doubt there will be a direct correlation between high intelligence and extreme lifespans seen in the next century. Having a certain measure of wealth at your disposal for therapies may be helpful later on. Waiting around for medical science to save you from oblivion is not what anyone should bank on right now. As for the matter of immortality, it's the golden ring...go for it. I was born in 67 and I have high hopes.

Why the high intelligence and extreme lifespan? I thought wealth was a better indicator.

Unless of course, you're Charlie Sheen.

Edited by theone999, 25 February 2011 - 06:24 PM.

[brokenportal]

Exactly ^^ Intelligence may play a big part, as in ability to be able to weed out the real science from quackery (I'm sure this will be an issue in a near future) and just overall ability to be "in pace" with this science, as some things may better be done earlier then later.. Anyway - that's the right state of mind (to be determined, positive) as if one is pessimistic already, pessimism breeds indifference, and that's the last thing we need here. Sorry these who think "we won't make it", but you are not supposed to be here. I've been a person of "coordinance" (sp?) a few times (of a group of people) and couldn't stand anyone who was a "loser" from the very begining. You can't win a war if you've lost it in your head already, never ever. Better die fighting till the last drop of blood, even when situation looks miserable, then to raise your hands up and say "I give up". That's not how greatest battles were won in history.

The right kind of intelligence yes. There are plenty of people who are competent at this or that methodology but dont posses the fundamentals for broad understanding. IE innumerable scientists that are great at solving problems in the lab but still insist that there is definitely an invisible friend in the sky that they can talk to telepathically (pray). There are plenty of examples. The business man that beats his wife, etc...

Right, pessimism slogs you down and often times kill you before you begin. Patton said that those who arent determined to win have already prepared to lose. Im reminded of a quote Ive been working with recently. During the American Revolution, Joseph Warren responded to the red coats taunts by saying, "They think we cant beat them, I hope I die up to my knees in blood." He is credited as being one of the key figures in helping to hold the lines in the early direction determining stages of the war.

The best part of course, too, is that we can win this with enough collective effort. There isnt too much pessimism in the life extension communities, and of course we are all prone to it a at least a little bit, but its important to keep it in mind and work to win rather than work to try to not lose.

[revenant]

Why the high intelligence and extreme lifespan? I thought wealth was a better indicator.

Unless of course, you're Charlie Sheen.

I just believe that we have to take things into our own hands right now with regard to approaches like tweaking metabolism through gene activation, avoiding and countering AGEs, exercising etc. It is going to be relatively smart people who will commit to these types of lifestyle changes, and keeping up on pertinent research. Networking with like minded types like we have here will also better our odds. Convincing the general (largely religious) public that life extension is soon going to be a reality is to me sisyphusian. There will have to be some big breakthroughs reported on CNN before that starts happening.