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How much can we actually extend our lifespan?


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7 replies to this topic

#1 sub7

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Posted 28 September 2005 - 06:43 PM


As far as life extension goes, I understand that the prevailing view here is to do the very best that we can with the existing technologies, so that when more effective methods such as gene theraphy come along we are in good enough shape to take advantage of them. This is a very sensible approach which I also share and try to follow as much as possible.

However, as someone who has followed R&D efforts of many large corporations (as a financial executive) I would also add that forecasting advances is notoriously difficult -especially in the healthcare field. Hence, I say -just for a moment- let us assume that there will be no breakthrough new technologies arriving in the next 15 years (another scenario is that such technologies will be prohibitively expensive when they debut and most of us will not be able to afford until their prices come down from the stratosphere, which could easily take 15 years from now). If we simply continue to do the best we can within our ability, how much can we actually extend our lifespan? Or how much can we slow the biological clock? I know this is a question that may be very difficult to answer quantitatively but I would still like to hear your views. Like all rational decisions in life, a cost/benefit analysis is critical in the area of nootropics and healthy living and wihout some sense of what the benefits are, a rational decision will simply be impossible.

To make the answer a bit easier let me try and better define the situation.

John and Mike 30 yr old are identical twins. John lives the typical American lifestyle. He tries not to put on too much fat but still has a spare tire around his waist. He knows fast food is bad for him but cannot resist the 99 cent deal at McDonald's a few times a week and downs a doughnut or two in the meetings at his office. He doesn't smoke and does play baseball with the kids or basketball with the guys at the backyard once in a while. He takes just a multivitamin and nothing else. His achol cosumption is not excessive and he is not dependent on alchol but likes beer and consumes it in fairly large quantities.

Mike on the other hand keeps a good weight, exercises frequently and with the right intensity. Keeps his house as pure from pollutants as possible (he has good air filters, and a chlorine filter at home), avoids inhaling too much exhaust fumes and does not drink alchol. He sleeps as much as needed, not more and not less. His diet is rich in organic fruit and low in insulin spiking foods. He takes a number of vitamins and most importantly a great deal of nootropics. His nootropic regimen consists of 10 or so compounds recommended to him by LifeMirage. Maybe he avoided a few of the nootropics that were difficult to get or too expensive but he is mostly following LifeMirage's advice.

Both John and Mike started living this way at 30 years of age and were living identical typical American lifestyles until their 30th bday (Mike continues to do the same old, whereas John has changed)

So if they continue as described above, how much longer would you expect Mike to live? Or If they do this for 20 years, how much younger -bilogically- would Mike be compared to John when both celebrate their 50th bday?

Thanks a lot all

Sub7

#2 sub7

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Posted 01 October 2005 - 03:53 PM

I have to bump this to the top. I am a little surprised that no one ventured a guess. LifeMirage, other well-informed members.... anyone?

I wonder how we can make decisions to use/decline to use such substances without some idea of what we can expect as a result.

Sub7

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#3 scottl

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Posted 01 October 2005 - 04:52 PM

I do not think anyone knows. You can read....sci.life-extension and read Paul Wakfer and Michael Price, etc discuss this kind of topic.

Oh and let me at least correct one...apparent misunderstanding (IMHO):

"He takes a number of vitamins and **most importantly a great deal of nootropics**."

Why most importantly nootropics?

If you look at LifeMIrages regimen:

Nootropics:

Piracetam 1.6-4.8G
Aniracetam 750mg (w/f)
Oxiracetam 800mg
Hydergine 1-2.25mg (w/f)
Vincamine 20mg (w/f)
Vinpocetine 10mg (w/f)
Oxopocetine 10 mg
Pyritinol 200-1,200mg
CDP-Choline 250mg
Alpha GPC 250mg
Vasopressin 2 sprays*

I am not at all certain that nootropics would effect lifespan as much as e.g. EPA/DHA....R-ALA, (the basics I've listed elsewhere), etc. (ALCAR perhaps).

#4 sub7

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Posted 01 October 2005 - 07:09 PM

well maybe I shouldn't have said "most importantly" or even "a great deal of...". I simply wanted to portray a person who is doing most of what can realistically be done for life extension.

#5 treonsverdery

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Posted 02 October 2005 - 05:04 AM

972 year human lifespan.
well
I think research between 1970 n 2000 is sufficient to double lifespan to 200 if people go with what's published on rats. Between 2000 n 2020 we pick up another 300 rat years from mRNA synchronization n somatic program control n active mitochondrial genome tropism control.
John n Mike are doing far less than rats.
There are numerous published chemicals that increase rodent lifespan about a third
a few of these have different mechanisms of action

Deprenyl that affects neural chemistry
insulin sensitizers that modulate IGF
melatonin that affects programming as well as ROS
7 unit or fewer peptides like epitalon that block acute illness
milk proteins like whey protein
gunk scavengers like lucidril n methylguanadine
RNA
free radical quenching supplements
NS ai ds

Edited by treonsverdery, 02 November 2006 - 05:44 AM.


#6 scottl

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Posted 02 October 2005 - 05:36 AM

I agree in principle, but keep in mind that we are not rats and some stuff that works on them, don't in people.

#7 xanadu

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Posted 02 October 2005 - 06:24 PM

One of the problems with adding up numbers is that they usually don't add up. You take compounds A, B, C, and D, for example. Lets say each of them extends life span in rodents by 30%. You try each of them on primates and finally humans and find they extend lifespan by a large amount, lets say 25% in humans. Do we therefore have a 100% increase since we have 4 drugs that each do a 25% increase? No, what typically happens is that each ones tends to overlap on the others. Sometimes they are doing the same thing by a different route. In this hypothetical example, the projected 100% increase when tested in the real world might only add up to 30 or 35%. That would be a great thing and far as I know, hasn't been achieved yet or at least not proven.

Lifestyle changes can make as much difference as that, maybe more. Just avoiding refined sugars, keeping weight down, add in vitamins and other supplements and regular excercise will give you 30% more, IMO. Of course that's compared to a typical american diet full of crap and lots of sitting on the couch. Add in the wonder drugs and maybe, just maybe we could see average age go beyond 100. Much more than that and you run into genetic programing. Scottl touched on that but it's more of a dream than a reality. Telomere lengthening? Might work, who know? We seem to be running into nature there and there might be 100 tough, knotty problems to solve just to extend the average lifespan to 110. Not to say it's impossible to go beyond that, it's just harder than it looks.

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#8 treonsverdery

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Posted 03 October 2005 - 01:37 AM

There are numerous published chemicals that increase rodent lifespan about a third
a few of these have different mechanisms of action

If you like review medline at www.pubmed.gov to find then describe novel ways to make lifespan longer

Edited by treonsverdery, 02 November 2006 - 05:44 AM.





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