5 replies to this topic

[caliban]

In general, higher rates of belief in and worship of a creator correlate with higher rates of homicide, juvenile and early adult mortality, STD infection rates, teen pregnancy, and abortion in the prosperous democracies

This is the study:

Gregory S. Paul
Cross-National Correlations of Quantifiable Societal Health with Popular Religiosity and Secularism in the Prosperous Democracies -- A First Look

Impressed? [huh]


Some people are:

http://www.timesonli...1798944,00.html
http://www.abc.net.a...05/s1470370.htm
http://www.thereveal...less_002105.php
http://www.theaustra...55E2703,00.html
http://www.theinside...cle.asp?id=1575

--> Results 1 - 10 of about 9,810 for "Gregory Paul" religion study


Is he poking where it hurts or just the hornets nest?

[Lazarus Long]

I have been reviewing the PDF of the study and I suspect there is more to it than at first meets the eye.

I suspect the effect he is describing is related to the origins of extreme evangelism for both Christian and Islamic society (and a few other less popular examples) and how they are potentially derivative of Evolutionary Psychology and the advantage of such warrior and evangelical survival memes (like the dependence on hope when all else fails) in harsh environments along with the potential advantages of an imposed (faith based memetics) placebo effect for primitive cultures.

A few hundred years ago rates of homicide were astronomical in Christian Europe and the American colonies (Beeghley; R. Lane). In all secular developing democracies a centuries long-term trend has seen homicide rates drop to historical lows (Figure 2). The especially low rates in the more Catholic European states are statistical noise due to yearly fluctuations incidental to this sample, and are not consistently present in other similar tabulations (Barcley and Tavares). Despite a significant decline from a recent peak in the 1980s (Rosenfeld), the U.S. is the only prosperous democracy that retains high homicide rates, making it a strong outlier in this regard (Beeghley; Doyle, 2000). Similarly, theistic Portugal also has rates of homicides well above the secular developing democracy norm. Mass student murders in schools are rare, and have subsided somewhat since the 1990s, but the U.S. has experienced many more (National School Safety Center) than all the secular developing democracies combined. Other prosperous democracies do not significantly exceed the U.S. in rates of nonviolent and in non-lethal violent crime (Beeghley; Farrington and Langan; Neapoletan), and are often lower in this regard. The United States exhibits typical rates of youth suicide (WHO), which show little if any correlation with theistic factors in the prosperous democracies (Figure 3). The positive correlation between pro-theistic factors and juvenile mortality is remarkable, especially regarding absolute belief, and even prayer (Figure 4). Life spans tend to decrease as rates of religiosity rise (Figure 5), especially as a function of absolute belief. Denmark is the only exception. Unlike questionable small-scale epidemiological studies by Harris et al. and Koenig and Larson, higher rates of religious affiliation, attendance, and prayer do not result in lower juvenile-adult mortality rates on a cross-national basis

Fig 4 relation of absolute belief to under five mortality


Fig5 Relation of belief to life expectancy

Legend for graphs

A = Australia
C = Canada
D = Denmark
E = Great Britain
F = France
G = Germany
H = Holland
I = Ireland
J = Japan
L = Switzerland
N = Norway
P = Portugal
R = Austria
S = Spain
T = Italy
U = United States
W = Sweden
Z = New Zealand

[scottl]

Correlation does not equal causation.

[Lazarus Long]

Correlation does not equal causation.

While I don't really think that is the point of the author's study, saying they are not equal doesn't mean there is not a causal factor and the repression of advancement is one clear model that we see in fundamentalist society. Think Galileo.

In the Intro the author states:

Agreement with the hypothesis that belief in a creator is beneficial to societies is largely based on assumption, anecdotal accounts, and on studies of limited scope and quality restricted to one population (Benson et al.; Hummer et al.; Idler and Kasl; Stark and Bainbridge). A partial exception is given by Barro and McCleary, who correlated economic growth with rates of belief in the afterlife and church attendance in numerous nations (while Kasman and Reid [2004] commented that Europe does not appear to be suffering unduly from its secularization). It is surprising that a more systematic examination of the question has not been previously executed since the factors required to do so are in place. The twentieth century acted, for the first time in human history, as a vast Darwinian global societal experiment in which a wide variety of dramatically differing social-religious-political-economic systems competed with one another, with varying degrees of success. A quantitative cross-national analysis is feasible because a large body of survey and census data on rates of religiosity, secularization, and societal indicators has become available in the prosperous developed democracies including the United States.

[2] This study is a first, brief look at an important subject that has been almost entirely neglected by social scientists. The primary intent is to present basic correlations of the elemental data. Some conclusions that can be gleaned from the plots are outlined. This is not an attempt to present a definitive study that establishes cause versus effect between religiosity, secularism and societal health. It is hoped that these original correlations and results will spark future research and debate on the issue.

[Mind]

Good thing the U.S. is becoming more secular. Hopefully homicide trends will decrease along with the change.

[Lazarus Long]

(caliban)
Is he poking where it hurts or just the hornets nest?

Both

Christianity and the Demise of America